Forest and climate change Seppo Kellomäki University of Eastern Finland School of Forest Sciences Joensuu Campus Finland 1
Contents Forests in the world Global climate change and impacts on forests Climate change in Europe with impacts on ecosystems Climate change in Finland with impacts on boreal forests Adaptation in forestry to climate change Conclusions 2
Global forests 1 - Global forest area 3.9 billion ha (30% global land area) - Boreal forest 30% of forest area, tropical forest about 50% -Forest area net reduction about 9 million ha/year, mainly in Africa and Latin America - In Asia, reforestation is compensating the reduction 3
Ecosystem goods and services from forests 4
Climate change and climate and climate scenarios 2 5
Climate change and climate scenarios 3 6
Climate change and climate scenarios 4 7
Climate change impacts on forests 1 8
Climate change impacts on forests 2, habitat change Change, % 9
Climate change in Europe : temperature and precipitation IPCC 102007
Climate change impacts through Europe 1 Area Sectors and systems Impact North Atlantic Centra l Mediter r. East Water resources Floods Water availability Water stress Glaciers retreat Mountains, cryosphere Duration of snow cover Permafrost retreat na Tree line upward shift Forest NPP to Northward/inland shift of tree species to Forest, shrub lands Stability of forest IPCC 112007 ecosystems
Sectors and systems Impact Climate change impacts through Europe 2 Area North Atlantic Central Mediterr. East Drying/ transformation of wetlands Wetlands and aquatic ecosystems Species diversity to?? Eutrophication Disturbance of drained peatlands na Plants (Mt) Amphibians (SW) (SE) IPCC 122007
Key vulnerabilities of European systems and sectors to climate change for the main biogeographic regions AT: Increased coastal erosion and flooding; stressing of marine biosystems and habitat loss; increased tourism pressure on coasts; greater winter storm risk and vulnerability of transport to winds BO: Water logging; eutrophication of lakes and wetlands; increased coastal flooding and erosion; increased winter storm risk; reduced ski season; fire risk TU: Thawing of permafrost; decreased tundra area; increased coastal erosion and flooding CE: Increased frequency and magnitude of winter floods; increased variability of crop yields; increased health effects of heat waves MT: Glaciers disappearing; reduced snow-cover period; upward shift of tree line; severe biodiversity losses; reduced ski season ME: Reduced water availability; increased drought; severe biodiversity losses; increased forest fires; reduced summer tourism; reduced suitable cropping areas, increased energy demand in summer, reduced hydropower; increased land losses in estuaries and deltas; increased salinity and eutrophication of coastal waters ST: Decreased crop yield; increased soil erosion; increased SLR with positive NAO; increased salinity of inland seas IPCC 132007
Boreal forest ecosystems - 600 million ha -18% of global forest area 20% of global industrial timber - Nearly a half of carbon in global terrestrial ecosystems is bound in the boreal forests. Important species coniferous species: - Pines (Pinus), spruces (Picea), firs (Abies), larches (Larix), junipers (Juniperus), thujas (Thuja), hemlocks (Tsuga), Important deciduous species: Aspen (Populus), birches (Betula), willows (Salix), alders (Alnus) 14
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How may climate change alter the forest growth in the European north Frequency of dry spells may increase even in moist sites, with a consequence that Scots pine and birches are more competitive in relation to Norway spruce 80 70 OMT MT Current climate Changing climate Dry days (days/year)) 60 50 40 30 VT CT 20 10 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Temperature sum (dd) 17
How may climate change alter the forest growth in the European north? In southern Finland, the climate change may create environment suboptimal for Norway spruce, the growth of which may reduce throughout southern and central parts of the country. In the north, the productivity of the forest ecosystems may be increased substantially, but it will be still less than that currently in southern Finland. However, the special features of northern forests and terrestrial ecosystems may be diminished even above the current timber line. Changes in growth and trees species composition have negative effect on the total growth forests only locally, and at the nation-wide the total growth may increase substantially. Consequently, the potential cutting drain may increase, too. The distribution of timber assortment may, however, change clearly towards birch and Scots pine timber on the expense of Norway spruce timber 18
Adaptation- concepts Human Interference Climate Change including Variability Mitagation of Climate Change through Sinks and Sources of Green House Gases Active or Planned Adaptation to the Impacts and Vulnerabilies Exposure Initial Impacts or Effects Vulnerabilities and Impacts Autonomous Adaptation Policy Responses Residual or net Impacts 19
Adaptation- impacts and vulnerability Vulnerability refers to the extent to which a natural or social system is susceptible to sustaining damage from climate change, vulnerability is a function of the sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure of the system to climate change. Sensitivity refers to the degree to which systems will respond to a given change in climate, including beneficial and harmful effects. Adaptive capacity refers to the degree to which adjustments in practices, processes, or structures can moderate or offset the potential for damage or take advantage of opportunities created by a given change in climate. Exposure refers to the degree to which the system is exposed to climate hazards. 20
Adaptation- adaptive management Adaptation occurs through adjusting and modifying the management to meet the requirements to moderate or offset the potential damage or to take advantage of opportunities created by a given climate change. Adaptive management is a strategy to make the structure and the consequent functioning of the forest ecosystem to resist harmful impacts of climate change, and to utilise the opportunities created by climate change includes measures aiming at moderating or offsetting the potential damage or taking advantage of opportunities created by a given climate change. 21
Adaptive management: assessment of needs Topic area to be assessed Climate change and climate variability Climate sensitivities of forests and impacts of climate change Capacity of autonomous adaptation Vulnerability Need for planned adaptation Description of factors affecting the need for adaptive management -Identifying how the climate will change in terms of temperature and precipitation, -Identifying how climate change may alter the duration of snow cover and soil frost. - Identifying how climate change may alter risk of high winds and heavy and wet snowfall. - Identifying how climate change may alter soil moisture availability. - Identifying how climate change may reduce and/or enhance regeneration and growth. - Identifying if any species is superior in utilizing climate change by gaining dominance - Identifying how risks of damage induced by abiotic and biotic factors - Capacity of main tree species to adapt through genetic adaptation. - Resistance of the main tree species to abiotic and biotic risk - Identifying how the main tree species respond to climate change through natural seeding. - Identifying how the main tree species are responding to climate change through growth - Areas, with the highest risk to disappear or to loose their unique feature. - Risks for permanent change in species composition and disappearing important genotypes. - Reduction in tree growth and the quality of timber. - Abiotic and biotic damages likely to increase, with losses in quantity and quality of timber. - Reduction of the carrying capacity of soils, with problems in harvest and transportation. - Needs to gene management through transfer of genotypes and new species. - Identifying the suitable tree species composition for adapting forests to climate change. - Needs to modify thinning practices and rotation length - Additional needs to practices to reduce risk of abiotic and biotic damage. - Efforts to maintain infrastructure for forestry and non-timber forest production. 22
Adaptation in forestry Current actions (up 2050) Management planning - Include climate variables in growth and yield models in order to have more specific predictions on the future development of forests - Include the risk management into the management rules and forest plans Gene management - Make choice about the preferred tree species composition for the future - Identify more suitable genotypes - Launch breeding programmes to enhance the resistance of trees to biotic damage Forest protection - Revise the rules for importing fresh timber, to reduce the risk of introducing alien species Silvicultural management - Revise management rules to consider the climate variability on regeneration, growth and mortality - Prefer natural regeneration wherever appropriate Technology and infrastructure - Develop technology to use altered wood quality and tree species composition - Develop the infrastructure for timber harvest and transportation, and non-timber use of forests Future (2050 onwards Management planning - Plan the forest landscape (as mosaic of forest stands) to resist high winds - Plan forest landscape to minimise spread of insects and diseases Gene management - Plant alternative genotype or new species Modify seed transfer zones Forest protection - Revise management rules to enhance the resistance of forest to abiotic and biotic damage Silvicultural management - Develop soil management to reduce the influence of the ground cover on the success of regeneration and enhance the supply of nitrogen - Modify the management rules to meet the enhancing growth and turn-over of carbon - Change rotation length to meet the enhanced turnover of carbon Technology and infrastructure - Develop technology to use altered wood quality and tree species composition - Develop the infrastructure for timber harvest and transportation, and non-timber use of forests 23
Can we do something in management to adapt forests to the climate change? Case of Norway spruce with more southern provenance -Left: Growth of Norway spruce may reduce under the climate change in the southern boreal conditions. -This may be due to suboptimal temperature conditions and more frequent drought episodes even on fertile sites with high water holding capacity - Right: More southern provenance of Norway spruce may be more successful under the climate change (right) 24
Can we do something in management to adapt forests to the climate change? Case to prefer varying tree species composition 25
Can we do something in management to adapt forests to the climate change? Case to reduce rotation length, change tree species composition and ecotype of Norway spruce 40 Change in growth, % 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Management with reduced rotation length Prefer Scots Scots pine pineinteadprefer Prefer birch birch instead intead of of instead of Norway of Norway spruce Norway Norway spruce spruce spruce Prefer more southern ecotypes of Norway spruce Change (%) in growth in 2070-2099 compared to that no change in management would take place in the same period 26
Conclusions Climate change provides opportunities, e.g. Higher productivity, especially in the north, with more timber More carbon sequestration Climate change increases risks, e.g. Higher risks of abiotic (fire, wind, snow) and biotic damages Disappearing of unique ecosystems, especially in the south and north Reduction of productivity of forest ecosystems, especially in the south Alteration of forest habitats and alteration of the current patterns of biodiversity, with disappearing currently rare and/or endangered species Climate change requires to modify management, e.g. Maintain the productivity of forest land, e.g. prefer drought tolerant species and provenances Prefer management rules reducing the interception of water in tree crowns and evaporation etc. Adaptation in forestry needs long-term strategies, i.e. measures applicable in early parts of this century may not be valid later this century 27
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