DIPARTIMENTO DI INGEGNERIA MECCANICA, NUCLEARE E DELLA PRODUZIONE - UNIVERSITA' DI PISA 56100 PISA - ITALY BEMUSE PHASE II: COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS REV. 1 A. Petruzzi, F. D Auria Workshop on Evaluation of Uncertainties In Relation To Severe Accidents and Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Analysis November 7 9, 2005 Aix-En-Provence, (FRANCE)
FOREWORD BEMUSE: OECD/NEA/CSNI PROJECT (02-07) 07) PHASE I (completed) DESCRIPTION OF UNCERTAINTY METHODS THIS PRESENTATION PHASE II (completed, report to be approved) LOFT ISP 13 (test L2-5) REVISIT & SENSITIVITY STUDY KEY RESULTS PHASE III (activity completed, report to be issued) UNCERTAINTY METHOD APPLICATION TO TEST L2-5 PHASES IV AND V (started, to be endorsed by CSNI) UNCERTAINTY METHOD APPLICATION TO ZION W NPP LBLOCA
CONTENTS NODALIZATION QUALIFICATION Nodalization Tables (Template N 1, Pag. 1) Pressures Vs Length Curve (New Request to the Participants) QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Resulting Time Sequence of Events (Template N 1, Pag. 1) Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments (T. #1) Relevant Thermalhydraulic Aspects (RTA) Tables (Template N 2, Pag. 1) QUANTITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Application of the FFTBM USER S EFFECT SENSITIVITY STUDY (Template N 3) 2/50
PARTICIPANT ORGANIZATIONS TO PHASE II Code Resources 14 Participating Organizations; 7 TH System Codes 3/50
NODALIZATION QUALIFICATION Part A Part B 4/50
NODALIZATION QUALIFICATION Part A: Nodalization Development 5/50
NODALIZATION QUALIFICATION Part B: Steady State Level 6/50
NODALIZATION QUALIFICATION Results of the Nodalization Qualification QA and QB should be less than 1. 7/50
NODALIZATION QUALIFICATION NODALIZATION QUALIFICATION Results of the Nodalization Qualification 1.20 1.443 1.00 Qa Qb 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.745 0.586 0.591 0.540 0.526 0.481 0.450 0.329 0.301 0.273 0.163 0.191 0.154 0.052 0.066 0.024 0.000 0.006 0.021 0.002 0.006 0.00 0.692 0.662 0.477 0.084 0.000 0.011 8/50 EDO [T97] Global Acceptability Factors Organization's Name
NODALIZATION QUALIFICATION Pressures Length Curve 1.008 1.006 (14.916 MPa) (14.963 MPa) (14.940 MPa) (14.974 MPa) (14.948 MPa) (14.940 MPa) (15.093 MPa) (14.924 MPa) (14.967 MPa) (14.967 MPa) (14.951 MPa) (14.968 MPa) (14.960 MPa) (15.020 MPa) Experimental Normalized Pressure (-) 1.004 1.002 1.000 HL IN HL OUT UT TOP SG OUT LOOP SEAL PUMP OUT CL IN CL OUT LP BAF TAF HL IN 0.998 0.996 0.994 SG IN OUT SG NOZZLE 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 PUMP IN Loop Length (m) 9/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Resulting Time sequence of Events - 1 120.0 Time After Experiment Initiation (s) 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Maximum cladding temperature reached Accumulator emptied Experimental 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Core cladding fully quenched LPIS injection terminated 10/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Resulting Time sequence of Events - 2 Time After Experiment Initiation (s) 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Experimental Partial top-down rewet initiated Subcooled break flow ended in cold leg 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Pressurizer emptied Accumulator A injection initiated Partial top-down rewet ended 11/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Resulting Time sequence of Events - 3 1.4 Time After Experiment Initiation (s) 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 Subcooled blowdown ended Reactor scrammed Experimental 0.2 DNB 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 12/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments 16.00 14.00 12.00 INTACT LOOP PRESSURE IN HOT LEG Pressure (MPa) 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 EXP: PE-PC-002 2.00 0.00 13/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments 7.00 6.50 SG PRESSURE - SECONDARY SIDE Pressure (MPa) 6.00 5.50 5.00 EXP: PE-SGS-001 4.50 14/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 ACCUMULATOR "A" PRESSURE Pressure (MPa) 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 EXP: PT-P120-043 0.50 0.00 15/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgements 16.00 14.00 12.00 PRESSURIZER PRESSURE Pressure (MPa) 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 EXP: PT-P139-05-1 2.00 0.00 16/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgements 650.00 600.00 CORE INLET FLUID TEMPERATURE Temperature (K) 550.00 500.00 450.00 400.00 EXP: TE-3LP-001 350.00 300.00 17/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgements 650.00 600.00 CORE OUTLET FLUID TEMPERATURE Temperature (K) 550.00 500.00 450.00 400.00 EXP: TE-5UP-003 350.00 300.00 18/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments 800.00 700.00 600.00 BREAK FLOW RATE IN COLD LEG Flow Rate (Kg/s) 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 EXP: FR-BL-001-100.00-200.00 19/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments 700.00 600.00 500.00 BREAK FLOW RATE IN HOT LEG Flow Rate (Kg/s) 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 EXP: FR-BL-002-100.00-200.00 20/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments 3500.00 3000.00 2500.00 ECCS INTEGRAL FLOW RATE Mass (Kg) 2000.00 1500.00 1000.00 EXP: Derived-ECCS 500.00 0.00 21/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments 8000.00 7000.00 6000.00 PRIMARY SIDE TOTAL MASS Mass (Kg) 5000.00 4000.00 3000.00 2000.00 EXP: Derived-MASS 1000.00 0.00 22/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Core Geometry and Position for the Hot Rod Cladding Temperatures ZONE 4 = HOT ROD (RODS N = 1) ZONE 3 = HOT CHANNEL (RODS N = 203) ZONE 2 = AVERAGE CHANNEL (RODS N = 876) ZONE 1 = PERIPHERAL CHANNEL (RODS N = 220) CONTROL RODS (RODS N = 137) TAF TOP 1.0 m 2/3 ZONE 1.676 m 0.4 m BOTTOM BAF ZONE 4: HOT ROD (FUEL ASSEMBLY N 5) - HEIGHT: 2/3 7 4 1 8 5 2 9 3 6 J N A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O 1 2 3 4 5 6 PCT Min : 5H06-037 7 (0.94 m - 974 K) 8 9 PCT MAX = PCT Ref : 5H06-024 10 (0.61 m - 1078 K) 11 12 13 14 15 23/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Maximum Linear Power Adopted 24/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments 1200.00 1100.00 1000.00 HOT ROD TEMPERATURE (ZONE 4) - BOTTOM LEVEL Temperature (K) 900.00 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 PCTmax: TE-5F04-015 PCTmin: TE-5H05-002 300.00 25/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments HOT ROD TEMPERATURE (ZONE 4) - 2/3 LEVEL Temperature (K) 1300.00 1200.00 1100.00 1000.00 900.00 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 PCTmax: TE-5H06-024 PCTmin: TE-5H06-037 300.00 26/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments HOT ROD TEMPERATURE (ZONE 4) - TOP LEVEL Temperature (K) 1200.00 1100.00 1000.00 900.00 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 PCTmax: TE-5H07-041 PCTmin: TE-5M07-062 300.00 27/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments AVERAGE ROD TEMPERATURE (ZONE 2) - BOTTOM LEVEL 1000.00 900.00 Temperature (K) 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 PCTmax: TE-2G14-011 PCTmin: TE-4F07-015 300.00 28/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments AVERAGE ROD TEMPERATURE (ZONE 2) - 2/3 LEVEL 1000.00 900.00 Temperature (K) 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 PCTmax: TE-2H15-026 PCTmin: TE-4F09-026 300.00 29/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Experimental Time Trends Comparisons Qualitative Judgments AVERAGE ROD TEMPERATURE (ZONE 2) - TOP LEVEL Temperature (K) 750.00 700.00 650.00 600.00 550.00 500.00 450.00 400.00 350.00 PCTmax: TE-2H13-049 PCTmin: TE-4F09-041 300.00 30/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION First PCT and Time of First PCT as function of Linear Power in PCT Location 1300.0 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 First PCT Time of First PCT 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 34.85 35.30 35.33 35.36 35.49 35.49 35.75 36.00 36.57 36.80 37.77 39.25 40.10 40.69 First PCT (K) EDO Time of First PCT (s) 7.0 6.0 5.0 Linear Power in PCT location (KW/m) 31/50
QUALITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION Relevant Thermal-Hydraulic Aspects 32/50
QUANTITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION APPLICATION OF THE FFTBM AAINTACT PRESSURE < 0.1 AATOT < 0.4 33/50
QUANTITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION AA Dispersion for Participants 0.2 0.0 P-1 P-2 P-3 P-4 P-5 P-6 P-7 P-8 P-9 P-10 P-11 P-12 P-13 P-14 P-16 P-18 P-19 P-20 AA 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 Parameter's IDs 34/50
QUANTITATIVE ACCURACY EVALUATION AA Dispersion for Parameter 1.2 P-1 P-2 P-3 P-4 P-5 P-6 P-7 P-8 P-9 P-10 P-11 P-12 P-13 P-14 P-16 P-18 P-19 P-20 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 35/50 AA Participant's IDs
USER S EFFECT User effect is originated by: A) Nodalization development; B) Interpreting the supplied (or the available) information, usually incomplete; C) Accepting the steady state performance of the nodalization; D) Interpreting transient results, planning and performing sensitivity studies, modifying the nodalisation and finally achieving a reference or an acceptable solution. Items A) and B) can be connected with the global acceptability factor for the nodalization development, QA; The global acceptability factor for the nodalization qualification at steady state level, QB, deals with item C); The activities at item D) can be summarized trough the single average accuracy values (AA, and particularly AA P-1 ) and by the global average accuracy value (AA TOT ). 36/50
1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 0.27 0.30 0.05 0.48 0.23 0.28 0.16 0.02 USER S EFFECT USER S EFFECT 0.59 0.59 0.54 0.53 0.38 0.30 0.45 0.33 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.25 0.26 0.15 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.75 0.31 0.02 0.27 0.19 0.01 0.08 0.36 0.00 0.66 0.48 0.31 0.69 0.19 0.01 37/50 EDO [T97] Q a, Q b (AA) tot 1.44 Organization's Name Qa Qb (AA)tot Global Acceptability Factors & AATOT
SENSITIVITY STUDY 38/50
SENSITIVITY STUDY 39/50
SENSITIVITY STUDY Comparison of the Results (Time Trends) Pressure (MPa) 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 SENSITIVITY N 1: Break Area UPPER PLENUM PRESSURE Mass Inventory (%) 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 SENSITIVITY N 1: Break Area PRIMARY SYSTEM MASS INVENTORY 0.00 SENSITIVITY N 1: Break Area 1300.0 HOTTEST ROD SURFACE TEMPERATURE 0.0 Temperature (K) 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 40/50
SENSITIVITY STUDY Comparison of the Results (Time Trends) 16.00 14.00 12.00 SENSITIVITY N 3: Gap Thickness UPPER PLENUM PRESSURE (NOT PERFORMED) 120.0 100.0 SENSITIVITY N 3: Gap Thickness PRIMARY SYSTEM MASS INVENTORY (NOT PERFORMED) (NOT PERFORMED) Pressure (MPa) 10.00 8.00 6.00 (NOT PERFORMED) Mass Inventory (%) 80.0 60.0 40.0 4.00 2.00 20.0 0.00 0.0 SENSITIVITY N 3: Gap Thickness 1700.0 HOTTEST ROD SURFACE TEMPERATURE 1500.0 (NOT PERFORMED) 1300.0 Temperature (K) 1100.0 900.0 700.0 500.0 (NOT PERFORMED) 300.0 41/50
SENSITIVITY STUDY Comparison of the Results (Time Trends) 16.00 14.00 SENSITIVITY N 5: Fuel Conductivity UPPER PLENUM PRESSURE 120.0 100.0 SENSITIVITY N 5: Fuel Conductivity PRIMARY SYSTEM MASS INVENTORY (NOT PERFORMED) Pressure (MPa) 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 (NOT PERFORMED) (NOT PERFORMED) Mass Inventory (%) 80.0 60.0 40.0 (NOT PERFORMED) 4.00 2.00 20.0 0.00 0.0 Temperature (K) 2100.0 1900.0 1700.0 1500.0 1300.0 1100.0 900.0 700.0 500.0 SENSITIVITY N 5: Fuel Conductivity HOTTEST ROD SURFACE TEMPERATURE (NOT PERFORMED) (NOT PERFORMED) 300.0 42/50
16.00 14.00 SENSITIVITY N 10: Maximum Linear Power UPPER PLENUM PRESSURE SENSITIVITY STUDY Comparison of the Results (Time Trends) 120.0 100.0 SENSITIVITY N 10: Maximum Linear Power PRIMARY SYSTEM MASS INVENTORY Pressure (MPa) 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 Mass Inventory (%) 80.0 60.0 40.0 4.00 2.00 20.0 0.00 0.0 SENSITIVITY N 10: Maximum Linear Power 1700.0 HOTTEST ROD SURFACE TEMPERATURE 1500.0 Temperature (K) 1300.0 1100.0 900.0 700.0 500.0 300.0 43/50
SENSITIVITY STUDY DPCT and DTREFLOOD: RESULTS of Sensitivities 44/50
SENSITIVITY STUDY DPCT Dispersion for Sensitivity Parameter DPCT (K) 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0-100.0 Break Area Gap Conductivity Gap Thickness Presence of Crud Fuel Conductivity Core Pressure Drop CCFL Decay Power Time of Scram Max Linear Power Accumulator Pressure Accumulator Liquid Mass Pressurizer Level -200.0 HPIS Failure -300.0 LPIS injection Time Participant's IDs EDO [T97] 45/50
800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0-100.0-200.0-300.0 SENSITIVITY STUDY SENSITIVITY STUDY DPCT Dispersion for Participants 46/50 Break Area Gap Conductivity Gap Thickness Presence of Crud Fuel Conductivity Core Pressure Drop CCFL Decay Power Time of Scram Max Linear Power Accumulator Pressure Accumulator Liquid Mass Pressurizer Level HPIS Failure LPIS injection Time Sensitivities EDO [T97] DPCT (K)
SENSITIVITY STUDY DPCT Gaussian Distribution Curves for Sensitivity Parameter Gaussian Distribution (-) 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 Break Area Gap Conductivity Gap Thickness Presence of Crud Fuel Conductivity Core Pressure Drop CCFL Decay Power Time of Scram Max Linear Power Accumulator Pressure Accumulator Liquid Mass Pressurizer Level HPIS Failure LPIS injection Time 0.001 0.000-400.0-200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 DPCT (K) 47/50
SENSITIVITY STUDY 50.0 40.0 DtREFLOOD Dispersion for Sensitivity Parameter Break Area Gap Conductivity Gap Thickness Presence of Crud 30.0 Fuel Conductivity Dt REFLOOD (s) 20.0 10.0 0.0-10.0 Core Pressure Drop CCFL Decay Power Time of Scram Max Linear Power Accumulator Pressure Accumulator Liquid Mass Pressurizer Level HPIS Failure -20.0 LPIS injection Time Participant's IDs EDO [T97] 48/50
50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0-10.0-20.0 SENSITIVITY STUDY SENSITIVITY STUDY DtREFLOOD Dispersion for Participant 49/50 Break Area Gap Conductivity Gap Thickness Presence of Crud Fuel Conductivity Core Pressure Drop CCFL Decay Power Time of Scram Max Linear Power Accumulator Pressure Accumulator Liquid Mass Pressurizer Level HPIS Failure LPIS injection Time Sensitivities EDO [T97] DtREFLOOD (s)
SENSITIVITY STUDY DtREFLOOD Distribution Curves for Sensitivity Parameter 0.090 Break Area Gap Conductivity Gaussian Distribution (-) 0.080 0.070 0.060 0.050 0.040 0.030 0.020 Gap Thickness Presence of Crud Fuel Conductivity Core Pressure Drop CCFL Decay Power Time of Scram Max Linear Power Accumulator Pressure Accumulator Liquid Mass Pressurizer Level 0.010 0.000-50.0-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 DPCT (K) 50/50
KEY RESULTS FROM BEMUSE PHASE III 50/50
KEY RESULTS FROM BEMUSE PHASE III 50/50