Energy Efficiency 2017 Samuel Thomas, Senior Analyst, Energy Efficiency Club Español de la Energia, Madrid, 30 th October 2017
Free download: http://www.iea.org/efficiency 2016 confirmed the recent step up in global energy efficiency gains This is generating economic, social and environmental benefits But stronger policy implementation is essential
Annual change in energy intensity The world is generating more value from its energy 0.0% Changes in global energy intensity (energy per unit of GDP) -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average annual change 1981-2010 Average annual change 2011-2016 This decade has seen intensity improvement rates at almost double the historic average, suggesting that the world has entered a new era of faster intensity gains.
2016 improvement in energy intensity Efficiency delivers a global energy productivity bonus 8% Economic value of improved energy intensity, 2016 (USD billion) 6% 1127 4% 2% 0% 532 2174 114 260 32 0 Japan 1 India 2 European 3 United 4 States China 5 World 6 7 Union The 2016 intensity improvement represents an additional USD 2.2 trillion of value created from global energy use, equivalent to twice the size of the Australian economy.
Energy-related CO 2 emissions have been flat since 2014 Global energy-related CO 2 emissions Gt 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 IEA analysis shows that global energy-related CO 2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, even though the global economy grew
Emissions (Billion tonnes CO 2 e) Energy efficiency is helping to keep emissions down 36 Factors influencing greenhouse gas emissions, 2014-16 34 32 30 28 2014 emissions GDP growth Renewables and fuel mix Energy intensity 2016 emissions Emissions would have been 2 billion tonnes higher in 2016 without the combination of energy efficiency improvement and the move towards renewables and cleaner fuels.
Energy efficiency has reduced global energy use Energy use with and without energy savings from efficiency improvements, 2016 160 120 EJ Efficiency savings 80 40 0 2000 2016 2000 2016 IEA member countries Major emerging economies Major emerging economies are the People s Republic of China, India, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and the Russian Federation Efficiency in IEA member countries has reduced energy use to levels not seen since the 1990s. Energy efficiency in the six major emerging economies avoided 13% more energy use.
Spanish energy consumption and economic activity have decoupled 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 EJ 2000 TFC Activity Household Economic factors structure Energy efficiency 2016 TFC 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 2000 TFC 2005 2010 Activity 2015 Economic structure Household factors Energy efficiency Spain has made significant progress on energy efficiency since 2005.
% reduction on enegry expenditure Energy consumers are making big savings 50% Per capita household energy expenditure savings in 2016 due to efficiency 40% 30% 20% 10% $580 $470 $430 $370 $140 $60 $60 0% Germany France United Kingdom Japan United States China Mexico Efficiency improvements made since 2000 reduced energy spending in 2016. German consumers saved nearly USD 50 billion on their annual home and travel energy costs.
Import savings from improved efficiency Reductions in energy imports in 2016 from efficiency improvements since 2000 in the largest IEA member country importers 2.0 EJ Gas imports 2.0 EJ Oil imports 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 Without energy efficiency, Japan would need to import 20% more oil and gas. This would cost nearly USD 20 billion
Daily peak gas demand (million cubic metres of gas per day) Efficiency improves short-term energy security Historical peak daily gas demand and efficiency savings in selected European markets 1 000 800 Peak energy efficiency savings 600 400 Historic daily peak demand (date) 200 0 Germany (2012) United Kingdom (2010) France (2012) N-1 supply requirement Without energy efficiency Germany s N-1 indicator would be reduced to 128% and the United Kingdom and France would not meet the standard
Index (2000 = 100) Index (2000 = 100) Industrial energy intensity is falling Industry energy intensity and productivity trends in IEA member countries and major emerging economies, 2000-16 IEA member countries Major emerging economies 340 300 260 220 180 140 100 60 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 340 300 260 220 180 140 100 60 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Energy use Gross value added Energy productivity Major emerging economies are the People s Republic of China, India, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and the Russian Federation Between 2000 and 2016, energy productivity in the industry sector increased by 40% in both IEA member countries and emerging economies.
Efficiency limits the impact of volatile energy prices Indices of energy prices, energy costs and output in the cement sector 200% Japan 200% United Kingdom 150% 150% 100% 100% 50% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 50% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Efficiency has helped Japanese cement manufacturers to maintain their competitiveness.
Energy efficiency investment is growing Energy efficiency investment by region and sector 250 USD billions By region By sector 200 Transport 26% Buildings 150 100 USD 231 billion 58% 50 16% 0 2015 2016 China Europe North America Other Industry Energy efficiency investment grew 9% in 2016, with growth strongest in China. The buildings sector continues to dominate global investment.
Almost 32% of the world s energy use is covered by codes and standards 60% Policy coverage World 40% 20% Spain 0% Residential Non-residential Industry Transport Total As in the rest of Europe, policy coverage in the transport and industrial sectors is relatively low in Spain.
Policies of the past drive progress of today Annual additions to the global policy coverage of mandatory codes and standards 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% % of global energy use covered by mandatory efficiency policies Existing policies Existing policies New policies New policies The amount of global energy use covered by mandatory efficiency policies grew to nearly 32% in 2016. We owe the efficiency gains of today to the policies of the past.
Global progress has become reliant on pre-existing policies 1.2 Contribution to the annual growth of the Efficiency Policy Progress Index, 2010-16 0.8 0.4 Existing policies 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 New policies The global Efficiency Policy Progress Index (EPPI) grew 0.5 percentage points 2016 to 6.3. Progress was driven by pre-existing policies, not new policies.
Policy progress varies across countries IEA Efficiency Policy Progress Index (EPPI), 2000-16 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2016 2011-15 2000-10 The total index in 2016 was 6.3, meaning codes and standards implemented since 2000 are designed to improve the minimum energy efficiency performance across the 16 countries by 6.3% relative to 2000.
Oil demand (mb/d) Trucks drive global oil demand 95 90 85 80 Other Petrochemical Other transport Cars Transport Trucks 75 70 2000 Increase by sector 2015 Trucks were responsible for nearly 40% of the growth in global oil demand since 2000; they are the fastest growing source of oil demand, in particular for diesel.
Energy use covered by fuel efficiency standards Vehicle efficiency policy is two-speed Efficiency standard coverage by transport end-use, 2016 60% 50% 40% North America 30% 20% 10% 0% Asia Europe Cars USA China Trucks Canada Japan Nearly 40 countries have fuel efficiency standards for cars. Only Canada, China, Japan and the United States have standards for trucks.
Index 1990 = 100 Space cooling energy use growth 600 500 400 300 200 100 Global energy consumption by building end-use, 1990-2050 Space cooling Appliances and other equipment Lighting Water heating Cooking Space heating 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Space cooling will continue to be the fastest growing source of energy demand in buildings. Efficiency policy is weakest in countries where demand is rising fastest.
Share of global total final consumption (%) Coverage and strength of energy utility obligations increased markedly over the past decade Coverage of energy utility obligations, 2016 20% Other 15% Brazil 10% United States 5% 0% 2005 2010 2015 2016 China European Union The percentage of global final energy use covered by obligation programmes rose from 7% in 2005 to 19% in 2016. There was no increase between 2015 and 2016 owing to the lack of new programmes.
ISO 50001 certificates ISO 50001 certified sites Energy management is key to system-wide measures ISO 50001 certifications by region and country 2% 1% 12% Other North America 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 85% Asia Pacific Europe 2 000 1 000 0 Germany United Kingdom France Italy India 4 000 2 000 0 Total number of certificates (left axis) Total number of certified sites (right axis) Take-up of energy management systems is growing, with ISO 50 001 most apparent in Europe. Chinese companies favour a different energy management system GB/T 23331
% of total energy use % of total energy cost Energy management systems do produce real benefits Verified average savings from ISO 50001 energy management system, United States 18% Energy savings 18% Cost savings 15% 15% 12% 12% 9% 9% 6% 6% 3% 3% 0% -Q4 -Q3 -Q2 -Q1 +Q1 +Q2 +Q3 +Q4 +Q5 +Q6 +Q7 Pre-Superior Energy Performance Programme 0% -Q4 -Q3 -Q2 -Q1 +Q1 +Q2 +Q3 +Q4 +Q5 +Q6 +Q7 Post-Superior Energy Performance Programme Source: LBNL (2015), Development of an Enhanced Payback Function for the Superior Energy Performance Program. Energy management systems can achieve energy and financial savings of over 10%, as well as nonenergy benefits such as better staff skills and improved management of other production inputs.
Concluding remarks Energy Efficiency 2017 shows the critical importance of energy efficiency to economies, households, businesses and the environment. There has been a step up in efficiency gains in recent years, despite lower energy prices, and this is having many positive impacts. Governments must renew their focus on policy implementation and attacking the 68% of energy use that is not covered by mandatory efficiency policies. Energy management is central to unlocking the system-wide efficiency gains needed if deeper savings are to be made. The IEA is helping countries realise unmet energy efficiency potential by training policy makers, facilitating knowledge sharing and providing policy advice.
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