FEWS NET Southern Africa FOOD SECURITY BRIEF 25 February 2001 Providing decisionmakers with information and analysis to manage threats of food insecurity HEAVY RAINS CAUSE FLOODING, DISPLACEMENT AND CROP DAMAGE IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Heavy rains during January and at the beginning of February in central Mozambique and in upstream Zambia and Malawi have caused serious flooding and water-logging in parts of Zambezia, Tete, Sofala and Manica Provinces in central Mozambique. According to government estimates, flooding so far has affected 389,000 people, leading to 41 deaths and displacing 77,0 people. Homes have been destroyed, roads and bridges washed away, and cropland inundated. Worst affected so far include the Zambezi, Pungue and Licungo River Basins. Response so far has been facilitated by government and UN contingency plans, which have been in place since December 2000. Accomodation centers have been established for those left homeless, and food and other humanitarian requirements prepositioned throughout the affected areas. Local communities are reported to have heeded government warnings of impending flooding by moving to pre-designated safe areas. The government has launched an emergency appeal, calling upon Mozambiquean insitutions, organizations and civil soceity, as well as the international community, to support humanitarian relief efforts now underway. Some $30 million in foreign assistance has been requested to supplement government resources, a large amount of which is for transportation, repair of infrastructure and logistical support. Heavy rains in Malawi have caused flooding and waterlogging, particularly in the Southern and Central regions of the country. While the situation is still being assessed, preliminary government estimates indicate that as many 194,000 people may be affected. Hardest hit is the Southern Region, where the Shire, Mkombedzi and Mwanza Rivers have flooded. Some reports estimate that as many as 60,000 people have been displaced in recent weeks. Worst hit is Nsanje district in the Lower Shire Valley close to Mozambique, where large areas reportedly remain submerged. In the Central Regions, reports of flooding and water-logging have been received from Salima and Nkhotakota. The situation in affected areas of Malawi is compounded as some roads and bridges into the area have been washed away, making it difficult to rapidly assess the siutation and deliver the required humanitarian assistance. Government has been urging people in southern Malawi to move to higher ground as the threat of flooding continues. Government is expected to request assistance from the international community to assist with its relief efforts. Recent reports from Zambia indicate that as many as 5,000 people have been displaced around Lusaka and in central FLOODING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA, AS OF 20 FEBRUARY 2001 Northern Province Malaw Luangwa Karonga i River Nkhata Bay Eastern Lake Malawi Province Nkhotakota Salima Cahora Lusaka Bassa Dam Mangochi Shire River Zambezi Nsjanje Kariba Dam River Licungo River Mashonaland Mutarara Mocuba and Central Caia Namacura Pungwe River Luabo Morromeu Zambia Areas that have reported flooding Key Dam Locations Zimbabw e Limpopo River Save River The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) is funded by USAID and managed by Chemonics International Inc. parts of the country, as heavy rains and flooding destroyed houses. Excessive rainfall in northern parts of the country have reportedly caused flash floods, which have destroyed infrastructure and bridges and left soils water-looged, threatening maize production in high producing areas of Eastern and Central Provinces. Flooding has been reported in lowland areas of Luangwa District. Mozambiqu In Zimbabwe, government reports that almost 12,000 people in the northeast of the country have been forced to flee their homes as a result of recent floods. The worst affected areas, so far, include parts of Mashonaland Central along the Mozambique and Zambia borders. While preliminary government reports indicate damage to infrastructure, homes, granaries and crops in affected areas, the situation is still being assessed. Elsewhere in the region, heavy rains and hailstorms in southern parts of Swaziland reportedly destroyed some 2,000 hectares of standing crops towards the end of January. Persistent heavy rains in Madagascar pose a threat for localized flooding which could adversely affect crop production and food security. Above normal rains in parts of Tanzania have caused flooding and damage to crops in a number of regions. Heavy rains also hampered FEWS NET Southern Africa Regional Office PO Box 46 Harare, Zimbabwe Telephone: (263-4) 729 126 / (263-91) 410 981 Facsimile: (263-4) 729 126 E-Mail: bisaacson@fews.net Dondo
the delivery of humanitarian assistance to refugee camps in northeastern parts of Tanzania. Page 2
SEASONAL RAINFALL IS MIXED, LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODS AND DROUGHT METEOSAT SEASONAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES COMPARED TO NORMAL, THROUGH 10 FEBRUARY 2001 Source: METEOSAT Satellite Imagery, http://users.erols.com/vikki.french/index.html RAINFALL ESTIMATES COMPARED TO NORMAL, 1 SEPT. 2000 TO 20 FEB. 2001 Slightly Less Near Normal Slightly More More Much More In southern Africa there is a delicate balance between too much rain, leading to floods, and not enough rains, leading to drought. While floods can be devastating to those affected, the occurrence of drought tends to be more widespread and regular making drought the more serious threat to food security in southern Africa. However, the upstream degradation of many watersheds and growing evidence that climate change over the longer term will mean increased rainfall in southern Africa indicate that the relative prevalence of climate-related threats (drought vs. floods) could be changing. This year, different parts of the region have received unseasonably high or low rainfall levels, leading to flooding and water-logging in some areas, and drought in other areas. Unseasonably high rains have fallen over much of Zambia, moving southeast into northern Zimbabwe, central and southern Source: SADC RRSU/USGS Malawi, into central Mozambique, causing flooding and water-logging in some areas. Abnormally low rains have fallen from southern Angola and northeast Namibia, across to southern Mozambique, leading to the wilting of crops in some areas. On balance, however, the rainfall season to date has been quite good and close to normal in many crop producing areas. The map above highlights the rainfall situation in the major crop producing areas of the region since the beginning of the 2000/01 rainfall season. Page 2
RAINFALL FORECAST, MARCH-APRIL-MAY 2001 20 35 25 25 35 Probability of Rainfall % % % Above Normal Normal Below Normal Enhanced Probability of Rainfall Above normal or normal Normal or above normal Normal or below normal Source: Drought Monitoring Centre, Harare The Drought Monitoring Centre in Harare has released the rainfall forecast for the period March-April-May 2001, which will mark the end of the rainfall season for most of southern Africa. Seasonal forecasts are made by establishing probability dis tributions using 30 years of historical rainfall data. It is seen from the forecast that there is an enhanced probability of above normal to normal rainfall over most of Angola and northern Namibia, possibly bringing welcome relief to the below normal rainfall received so far in some of these areas. Rainfall is likely to be near normal or above normal in the DRC, extending eastward into central Mozambique. Normal to belownormal rains are forecast for the southern portion of the region. 2001 CROP PRODUCTION LIKELY TO BE BELOW AVERAGE IN SOME COUNTRIES WATER REQUIREMENT SATISFACTION INDEX FOR MAIZE, 2000/01 PRODUCTION SEASON, SOUTHERN AFRICA Most countries in southern Africa are in the process, or soon will be, of assessing crop production prospects for this season. The SADC Regional Early Warning System is now assembling these assessments into a regional production forecast, to be released in the weeks ahead. < 50 % Maize Failure 50-60% of required rainfall 60-80% of required rainfall 80-95% of required rainfall 95-99% of required rainfall 99-100% of required rainfall 0 or no data The FAO Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) provides an indication of production prospects based on temporal satellite derived agro-climatological information since the beginning of the production season. The WRSI predicts reductions in crop yields due to moisture stress. A WRSI value of 100% indicates the absence of yieldreducing, water-related stress, while a value of 50% or less indicates inadequate water to maintain growth, leading to crop failure. It is important to note that the WRSI does not consider the effect of excess soil moister, water-logging or irrigation. The 2000/01 production season has been characterized by variable rainfall, which has lead to localized flooding and drought conditions in different parts of the region. With some notable exceptions however, rainfall in most crop producing areas of the region has been close to normal, which in itself would indicate favorable harvest prospects. However, in many areas, even a relatively small variation of rainfall from normal can have an important impact on crop production. Additionally, other factors suggest that the agronomic production potential may not be fully reached in some countries, even where rainfall (either too much or too little) is not a constraint. These factors include conflict, poor input availability and high prices, inadequate financing and liquidity of farmers, insect and disease outbreaks, and last year s surplus production and ensuing low prices which in some areas has lead to a reduction in the area planted under cereal crops. The crop outlook for most of the unimodal rainfall areas (central and southern) of Tanzania is favorable. However, the late onset of the rains and poor crop performance in some northern bimodal rainfall areas have caused concern over harvest prospects in these areas where it is reported that as many as 700,000 people in affected areas could face food shortages, at least until the second season harvest in July. Production in some parts of the country is likely to be affected by armyworm attacks, although the impact of recent outbreaks is not yet known. According to reports from UN OCHA in Angola, irregular rains during January have resulted in a dry belt in the north, which could affect crop production. However, more concern has been raised over dry conditions in the south where estimates of lost crops due to wilting ranged from -80 percent (in Menongue) to 60-100 percent (in Kuito Page 4
Kuanavale). Final production figures in these areas now depend largely on rainfall performance during the second planting season in February. In Zambia, heavy rains have caused flash floods and water-logging in some parts of the surplus maize producing areas of Eastern and Western Provinces, which are likely to adversely affect crop production and national food supply. In the far south of the country, reports indicate that unseasonably dry conditions have caused crops to wilt. In addition, the Zambia National Farmer s Union has forecast a drop in this season s maize production due to the slow implementation of government programs to provide input support, low domestic market prices, and the presence of substantial amounts of unsold production from last year. Production prospects in Mozambique will be most affected by rainfall conditions. Excessive rainfall leading to flooding and water-logging in central areas, is reported to have so far destroyed an estimated 23,000 hectares of cropland, affecting approximately 44,000 farmers. However, the government has included input support in its emergency appeal and efforts are underway to assist some farmers with replanting, in which case residual soil moisture in some areas could improve production prospect in the months ahead. In contrast, unseasonably dry conditions in the south have led to recent reports of crop wilting. Cassava production in northern coastal areas of the country has been seriously affected by the two-year-old outbreak of cassava brown streak disease. The prolonged dry spell in southern parts of Zimbabwe has led to crop failure in some areas. A reduction in the area planted this season, partly a result of government s land reform policies and the illegal occupation of some commercial farms since February 2000, will also adversely affected production in Zimbabwe. Commercial farms typically contribute almost percent of Zimbabwe s maize crop, although this season s production from commercial producers could be as much as 50 percent below normal. The high cost of maize seed and the lack of financing has forced many communal farmers to plant lower-yielding local varieties or reduce the area under production. The area under maize production is estimated to be down by 26 percent from last year. Overall, cereal production (excluding wheat) in Zimbabwe is expected to be almost percent below average, and a maize deficit is expected. Maize production in Malawi is expected to drop by some 15 percent compared to last year s bumper production levels. This is mainly the result of poor rainfall patterns, including the leaching of soil nutrients due to high rainfall in some locations. Crop production in some areas, such as Balaka and Manjawira, has been adversely affected by unseasonably dry conditions, which could result in a drop in production levels by as much as percent compared to last year. A notable drop in the area planted this year, as well as by dry conditions and high temperatures in western and central parts of South Africa s corn belt, will affect maize production this season. Some analysts indicate that the area planted under maize could be down by as much as 20 percent from last year. South African producers have also been hard-hit by the increased costs of imported inputs due to the weak Rand and by low producer prices last year, which affected this season s production decisions. Preliminary reports from Botswana, Swaziland, and particularly Lesotho indicate disappointing prospects for this production season. On-going and planned assessments in most countries of the region will provide more reliable information on production forecasts in the weeks ahead. CHOLERA OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL Despite intensified efforts, including support from the WHO and the IFRC, to control the cholera outbreak that has affected southern Africa since August 2000, new cases and additional deaths continue to be reported in several countries of the region. KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa has been hardest hit, with a total of some 49,000 cases and over 100 deaths since August 2000. On 15 February 2000, KwaZulu-Natal provincial officials reported over 1,000 new cases in the preceding 24 hours, sparking fears in South Africa that the outbreak was far from over. Since August, the provincial health department has already spent more than $2.8 million in the fight against the disease. Swaziland has reported 12 cholera deaths since January, and is appealing to local communities to help fight the disease. In Zambia, health officials put Lusaka on a cholera alert towards the end of January, following reports of Page 5
suspected cases in the capital. Hardest hit in Zambia is Kabwe, where all government schools have been closed in an effort to stop the spread of the disease. By the end of January, 26 people had died of cholera in Zambia. IDPs in Angola Nearing Four Million HUMANITARIAN UPDATE The Government of Angola estimates that the number of IDPs throughout the country is approaching 4 million people. The number is reported to have increased by almost 20,000 during January alone. At least half a million of these people are in areas inaccessible to humanitarian agencies. Despite improvements in access to affected people in 2000, recent shifts in UNITA s military strategy, towards rapid, hit-and-run guerilla tactics, is constraining relief operations. In addition, those who are receiving food assistance are likely to suffer from reduced rations due to the poor donor response to last year s UN Emergency Appeal. Food aid shortfalls are considered imminent during March and April 2001. WFP received only 60 percent of project needs last year, forcing a reduction in the number of beneficiaries from 1.5 to 1 million, and a reduction in ration size from 2,100kcal per person per day to only 1,800kcal. WFP has announced that starting in April, it will cut back on the amount of free food distributions in Angola in favor of supporting more recovery-related activities. In areas where security conditions permit, WFP s focus will shift towards supporting the resettlement of displaced populations and building greater self-reliance. Tanzania Emergency Operation Reduced, as Food Security Conditions Improve As harvesting of the vuli season crops in bimodal areas of Tanzania continues, and production prospects in the unimodal areas improve, food aid distributions to almost 290,000 people have stopped. The government and WFP have reduced their estimate of food aid needs under the current emergency operation by almost 50 percent, from 42,0 MT of maize to 21,8 MT. Distributions under the operation are expected to end in February. Elsewhere in Tanzania, heavy rains in northwestern parts of the country, where WFP is currently assisting more than half a million refugees, damaged roads and bridges, affecting delivery of humanitarian assistance to some refugee camps. Page 6