Sept 7 Sept 14 Sept 21 Sept 28 Oct 5 Oct 12 Oct 19 Oct 26 Nov 2 Nov 9 Nov 16 Million hectares 1,000 hectares 8,000 7,000 6,000 Ukraine Winter Wheat: Sowing Progress (All years include estimated area for Crimea.) The fall sowing campaign began slowly but accelerated during late October. Wheat area is up slightly from last year (6.41 mha against 6.29 mha for 2016/17). Sown area is fairly stable from year to year. 5,000 4,000 Ukraine Winter Wheat: Sown Area (State Statistical Committee) 3,000 2,000 1,000 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 6.7 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.3 7.1 6.3 6.4 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food
Sept 7 Sept 14 Sept 21 Sept 28 Oct 5 Oct 12 Oct 19 Oct 26 Nov 2 Nov 9 Percent of final sown area Million hectares 100% 90% 80% Ukraine: Winter-Wheat Sowing Progress All years include estimated area for Crimea. Dry weather during September and October delayed wintergrain planting in Ukraine. 70% 60% 50% Ukraine Winter Wheat: Sown Area (State Statistical Committee) 40% 30% 20% 10% 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 6.7 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.3 7.1 6.3 6.4 0% Average 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food
Southern Nikolayev Oblast, Ukraine Landsat 8 28-November-2013 Landsat 8 04-Nov-2016 False-color infrared satellite imagery shows the striking difference in sown winter-grain area and crop emergence between 2013 and 2016. Red denotes vegetation; gray and black denote bare fields. Data source: USGS Low surface moisture in parts of south-central Ukraine hampered winter-grain emergence. Imagery processed by Pingping Jiang, Inuteq LLC
USDA analysts conducted crop-assessment travel in Ukraine from March 27 through April 2.
Vinnitsa Oblast 01-April-2017
Mykolaiv Oblast 30-March-2017 Winter wheat after corn
Mykolaiv Oblast 30-March-2017 Winter rapeseed after winter barley
Tons per hectare 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mykolaiv Oblast, Ukraine MODIS NDVI, March 22-29, 2017 Wheat Yield (T/Ha) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 MODIS NDVI at the end of March indicate that winter-grain conditions in Mykolaiv oblast are similar to the previous two years. Source: NASA/Global Space Flight Center
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Tons per hectare 4.5 Ukraine Wheat: Estimated Yield Personal forecast only not official USDA data. 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 The estimated yield of 3.94 tons per hectare is down 5 percent from last year s record. Production is forecast at 26.0 million tons. Sources: State Statistical Agency (2000-2016); personal forecast (2017)
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Tons 1,000 hectares 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Ukraine: Cumulative Imports of Hybrid Sunflower Seed Sunflowerseed is consistently the most profitable crop in Ukraine. Hybrid imports through February are fairly high; supports high yield forecast. Low per-hectare cost of production for sunflowers. 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Ukraine Sunseed: Harvested Area (USDA) 0 5,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Global Trade Information Service
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 60% 50% 40% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ukraine: Profitability of Major Crops (Average 2009-2015) Ukraine: Profitability of Major Crops 51% 30% Corn Sunseed Soy 20% 27% 27% 27% 10% 16% 10% 0% Wheat Barley Corn Sunseed Rapeseed Soy Source: State Statistical Committee of Ukraine
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1,000 hectares Percent abandoned 6,000 Ukraine: Estimated Corn Area and Abandonment 14% 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0 0% Harvested area Abandoned area Percent abandoned Source:
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Tons per hectare 7.0 6.0 Ukraine: Estimated Corn and Sunseed Yield Personal forecasts only not official USDA data. Imports of hybrid corn seed have dropped, but the quality of domestic hybrids is improving. 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Corn Sunseed Source: State Statistical Committee (2000-2016); personal forecast (2017)
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Million hectares (Districts) Million hectares (Russia) Russia: Fall-Sown Area of Winter Grains (Prior to Winterkill) 14 12 10 8 14.9 17.0 14.9 13.4 14.8 14.4 14.6 16.9 18.0 18.2 Sown winter-grain area for 2017/18 increased by 1.0 million hectares. 16.1 16.1 15.8 14.7 16.4 15.9 16.9 20 18 16 14 12 10 6 8 4 2 6 4 2 0 0 The Southern category includes the Southern and North Caucasus Federal Districts. Source: Ministry of Agriculture Russia Central Southern Volga
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Output (MMT) Russia Wheat Forecast: Winter grain area up 6% from last year, including a 9% increase in the Southern District. Good establishment, low winter losses expected. Three consecutive years of record wheat yields in the Southern District. Stable area and average yield for spring wheat. 2017 wheat forecast: 70 mmt. Personal forecast only; not official USDA data. Excludes estimated output from Crimea. 80 Russia Wheat 70 60 50 40 30 44.9 49.4 63.8 61.8 41.5 56.2 37.7 52.1 59.1 61.0 72.5 70.0 20 10 0 Output
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1,000 hectares 16,000 Kazakhstan Wheat: Estimated Final Sown Area 14,000 12,000 10,000 10,113 10,848 11,733 11,362 11,957 12,647 12,425 12,892 13,487 14,751 14,261 13,849 13,464 13,090 12,392 11,736 12,431 11,500 8,000 6,000 4,000 With preferential subsidies for oilseeds and other non-wheat crops reinstated, wheat area is forecast to resume its decline. 2,000 0 Sources: State Statistical Agency (1999-2016); personal forecast (2017)
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Tons per hectare 1.8 1.6 1.4 Kazakhstan Wheat Yield: Annual Yield and 5-Year Moving Average Kazakhstan wheat output for 2017/18 is forecast at 13.0 million tons, based on average yield and a 7-percent decrease in estimated area. 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Yield (T/Ha) 5-year moving Source: State Statistical Agency
Forecast Output for Major Crops in Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan Personal forecasts only; not official USDA data (million tons) Ukraine 1/ Russia 2/ Kazakhstan 2016/17 2017/18 2016/17 2017/18 2016/17 2017/18 Wheat 26.8 26.0 72.5 70.0 15.0 13.0 Barley 9.9 7.5 17.5 17.0 3.2 2.6 Corn 28.0 27.0 15.3 16.0 0.8 0.8 Total grain 67.2 62.8 119.4 116.6 20.6 17.8 Sunseed 13.8 13.0 10.9 10.5 0.8 0.8 Soybeans 4.3 4.5 3.1 3.2 - - 1/ Ukraine totals include Crimea. 2/ Russia totals exclude Crimea. Initial USDA estimates of global 2017/18 crop production will be released on May 10, 2017.
Estimated Area for Major Crops in Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan Personal estimates only; not official USDA data (million hectares) Ukraine 1/ Russia 2/ Kazakhstan 2016/17 2017/18 2016/17 2017/18 2016/17 2017/18 Wheat 6.5 6.6 27.0 27.7 12.4 11.5 Barley 3.1 2.5 8.0 8.0 1.9 1.9 Corn 4.3 4.2 2.8 3.0 0.14 0.14 Total grain 14.8 14.3 45.5 46.7 15.3 14.4 Sunseed 6.2 6.0 7.2 7.0 0.8 0.8 Soybeans 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 - - 1/ Ukraine totals include Crimea. 2/ Russia totals exclude Crimea. Initial USDA estimates of global 2017/18 crop production will be released on May 10, 2017.
Forecast Yield for Major Crops in Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan Personal forecasts only; not official USDA data (tons per hectare) Ukraine 1/ Russia 2/ Kazakhstan 2016/17 2017/18 2016/17 2017/18 2016/17 2017/18 Wheat 4.12 4.02 2.69 2.60 1.21 1.13 Barley 3.19 3.00 2.19 2.13 1.68 1.37 Corn 6.51 6.43 5.46 5.33 5.71 5.71 Total grain 4.55 4.39 2.62 2.50 1.35 1.23 Sunseed 2.23 2.17 1.51 1.50 1.00 1.00 Soybeans 2.39 2.25 1.48 1.45 - - 1/ Ukraine totals include Crimea. 2/ Russia totals exclude Crimea. Initial USDA estimates of global 2017/18 crop production will be released on May 10, 2017.
USDA web sites Initial USDA estimates for 2016/17 will be released on May 10, 2016. USDA Web Sites: Crop Explorer http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/ Google: Crop Explorer World Agriculture Production circular http://www.fas.usda.gov/wap/current/toc.asp Google: USDA WAP PSD Online http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdquery.aspx Google: PSD Online WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand) http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf Google: WASDE