Agriculture and Climate Change in the UK 8 November 2010 Dr Mike Segal Deputy Chief Scientific Adviser & Director of Strategy and Evidence Group
Overview The UK Climate Projections (June 2009) show that some climate change is inevitable. This offers both threats and opportunities. Farming is very vulnerable to, and among first to feel effects of, a changing climate, and therefore has a role both in adapting to and mitigating climate change. I will cover: 1. Policy Context 2. Mitigation 3. Adaptation (brief overview) 4. Conclusions
Policy context: The Climate Change Act 2008 sets a legally binding long-term framework to cut carbon emissions and also creates a framework for building the UK's ability to adapt to climate change. Defra s proposed approach to deliver this: Mitigation the sector represents about 8% of total UK GHG emissions, therefore: ensure that the agriculture industry meets its abatement commitment develop a supply chain approach to reduce emissions improve the evidence base and measurement of on-farm emissions Adaptation Agriculture occupies around 75% of UK land. Climate change effects vary by locality and over period of time, therefore: build resilience in the farming industry to adapt now and in the future ensure that actions taken are sustainable, flexible, based on sound analysis and evidence, prioritised and effective
Reality check: Agriculture includes diverse complex biological systems: multitude of different variables and opportunities. As a result, our understanding of emissions reduction potential in the sector is not complete; and our ability to measure and record emission reductions accurately requires further work. Farmers are land managers they don t just produce food, and don t just produce one product; they are key custodians and providers of ecosystem services and environmental benefits for wider society. Farmers need to adapt not just to manage the impacts of their business, but to maintain these environmental and ecosystem services (i.e. biodiversity, flood management, mitigation options etc).
Climate change mitigation for agriculture and the food chain
Carbon budgets: The UK s framework for action on climate change Climate Change Act 2008 commits us to at least 80% (below 1990 levels) reduction in all GHG emissions by 2050 First three carbon budgets announced April 2009: 22% reductions in 2008-12 28% reductions in 2013-17 Below 1990 levels 34% reductions in 2018-22 Action will be needed across all sectors of the economy, including the agriculture sector
UK 2050 perspective
Background: Current estimates of Greenhouse Gases 2010 DECC publication of GHG emissions, agriculture single largest emitter of: N2O -76% of UK total emissions use of nitrogen fertilisers CH4-38% of UK total emissions digestive systems of livestock and manure [ CO2 - Only about 1% of UK total emissions ] Global warming potential CH4 ~ 25 x CO2 N2O ~ 300 x CO2
Background: Where do UK agriculture emissions come from? Breakdown of UK agriculture emissions, 2008 Total emissions: N2O 53% CH4 38% CO2 10%
Current approach: Industry driving forward reduction of GHG emissions through their voluntary Greenhouse Gas Action Plan, working with Government Focus on actions to improve efficiencies rather than simply setting targets Support in other ways, including: developing low-carbon advice; ensuring interest-free loans are available to farm businesses to invest in energy-saving equipment (Carbon Trust) Working with the whole supply chain to ensure we maximise the potential for emission reductions. Government will monitor success of delivery of industry s Action Plan, and consider other policy levers if it doesn t deliver the required results Number of ways in which farmers can reduce their emissions now that make good business sense and often meet other environmental objectives
What can farmers do? Efficient use of resources Nutrient (fertiliser and manure) management Amount + application method + timing Manure storage Cover slurry stores or use manure in AD to reduce emissions Livestock management Match nutrition to needs; healthy animals; improved breeding Carbon Sequestration Improve crop and grazing land management to improve soil carbon Protect peat soils Woodland creation to store carbon in soils and trees
R&D: The Agriculture and Climate Change Programme (c. 7m pa)
R&D AC01: Emissions from agriculture to air Projects focus on the development and delivery of the UK agricultural inventory of GHGs New 12m investment to improve Agricultural GHG inventory -ongoing projects to support this are: Data management; Methane emission factors; and Nitrous Oxide emission factors
R&D AC02: Agricultural GHG Abatement Feasibility of GHG mitigation on farm Mitigation roadmap for 2030 Market segmentation Integrated advice pilot To assess GHG mitigation potential of: Nitrification inhibitors Optimal N timing and application strategy Systemic changes e.g. min. till Livestock genomics and breeding Reproductive efficiency Livestock dietary manipulation
Climate change adaptation for agriculture
Background: Effects of the changing climate Hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters Some increased yields and less frost; reduced quality and yield of some current crops Opportunity to grow new crops (e.g. olives and apricots) or existing crops further north (e.g. vines). Heat stress of livestock and farm workers. Drought Loss of Pasture Lack of water for crops and livestock. Decreased flow to rivers and groundwater Increased losses to pests and disease. Reduction in crop yield Changes to wild plant and animal communities on farmland Increased risk of fire. Sea level rise Reduced water supply, salinisation of land. Changes to coastal habitat and loss of land. Increased incidence of extreme weather events Increased soil erosion and water pollution. Disruption of farming activities, increased recharge of water courses and stores, storm and flood damage
Work so far: Compiled existing R&D and developed, with stakeholders, a list of around 50 priority actions across 8 themes: 1.Planning, monitoring and risk assessment 2.Change crop and livestock varieties 3.Green infrastructure and land management 4.Technology and infrastructure 5.Water management 6.Livestock management 7.Crop management 8.Pesticide and fertiliser management
Adaptation actions in farming (these will depend on location and circumstances of farm, and time period)
Adaptation - Next steps: Further development of the priority adaptation measures that farmers can adopt Continue to work with industry on potential voluntary action, including through advice and guidance Work to ensure that the strategic importance of climate change is adequately reflected in rural development and agri-environment policy in future CAP. Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) wide analysis of both threats and opportunities by 2011, & economic assessment of adaptation measures by 2012 National Adaptation Plan building on the CCRA
International activity: Bilateral engagement France, Brazil, Germany, New Zealand and China EU Multilateral engagement UNFCCC, OECD, FAO, Global Research Alliance, Agriculture Committee of the Methane to Markets Partnership
Final Conclusions Recognise that climate change poses both opportunities and, more significantly, challenges to the agricultural sector; Be realistic about the challenges of dietary change in the context of providing a safe, affordable food supply for our growing population; Emphasise the role the agricultural sector plays in managing and safeguarding the UK s natural habitats and landscapes it must be placed in an ecosystem approach; UK population grows to 72M by 2050 (UN predictions range from 63M 81M) and world population and demand for food continues to increase Innovation and advancements in R&D and technologies is critical the risks and benefits of all technologies must be evaluated
Any questions?