Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership Lecture With Professor Jorgen Randers J Randers 1
The 2052 Forecast: What will happen in the world to 2052? What should be done? Jorgen Randers Professor Emeritus Climate Strategy BI Norwegian Business School J Randers 2 Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership Cambridge, October 13 th, 2016
2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years A forecast of global developments to 2052, predicting that global warming will exceed +2 deg C in mid-century See www.2052.info J Randers 3
Gpersons 10 World population will peak in 2040 % / yr 5.0 8 Population ( scale) 4.0 6 3.0 4 2 Death rate (scale ) Birth rate (scale ) 2.0 1.0 g161007 2052 update GAG 2016 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0.0 Figure 4-1 Population World 1970 to 2050 Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, www.2052.info 2016 J Randers 4
Crude birth rate (in % per yr) Fertility will continue to decline 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Crude birth rate (in % per year) USA OECD World RoW BRISE China OECD World RoW BRISE China USA 1.0 0.5 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 GDP per person (1 000 $ per person-year) Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, www.2052.info 2016 J Randers 5
Crude birth rate (in % per yr) Fertility will continue to decline 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Crude birth rate (in % per year) If life expectancy is 80 years, the population will decline once the birth rate falls below 1,25 % per year USA OECD World RoW BRISE China OECD World RoW BRISE China USA 1.0 0.5 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 GDP per person (1 000 $ per person-year) Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, www.2052.info 2016 J Randers 6
World GDP will grow more slowly than in past T$ / yr 250 Population (scale ) Gpersons 9.0 1000$/yr 50 200 7.5 40 GDP ( scale) 6.0 150 30 4.5 100 50 GDP per pperson (scale ) 3.0 1.5 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 J Randers 7 g161007 2052 update GAG 2016 0.0 0 Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, www.2052.info 2016
The shift of 5 world regions from 2015 to 2050 Rate of growth in GDP per person per year (in % / yr) CHINA 2015-2050 ROW BRISE OECD USA Source: Ozgun O et al, Future of Spaceship Earth Project, DNV GL report 2016-0524 J Randers 8
Total energy use will grow, but more slowly Gtoe / yr 25 toe / M$ 500 T$ / yr 250 20 400 200 15 Energy use ( scale) GDP (scale ) 300 150 10 200 100 5 Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale ) g161007 2052 update GAG 2016 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 5-1: Energy Use World 1970 to 2050 100 0 50 0 Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, www.2052.info 2016 J Randers 9
World use of fossil fuels will peak before 2040 Gtoe / yr 9.0 Fossil use Gtoe / yr 16 7.5 Fossil use (scale ) 14 6.0 Renewable energy use 12 10 4.5 Oil use 8 6 3.0 Gas use Coal use 4 1.5 Nuclear use g161007 2052 update GAG 2016 2 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 5-2: Energy Uses World 1970 to 2052 0 Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, www.2052.info 2016 J Randers 10
CO 2 emissions from energy will peak in 2040 GtCO2 / yr 45 tco2 / toe 4.0 Gtoe/yr 25 36 27 Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy (scale ) CO2 emissions ( scale) Energy use (scale ) 3.0 20 15 2.0 18 10 9 1.0 5 g161007 2052 update GAG 2016 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 1970 to 2050. 0.0 0.0 Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, www.2052.info 2016 J Randers 11
ppm 600 Temperature will pass +2 deg C before 2050 C m 2.4 2.4 500 2.0 2.0 400 CO 2 concentration ( scale) 1.6 1.6 300 Temperature rise over 1850 (scale ) 1.2 1.2 200 100 Sea level rise over 1850 (scale ) 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.4 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 5-4: Climate Change World 1970 to 2050 g161007 2052 update GAG 2016 0.0 0.0 Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, www.2052.info 2016 J Randers 12
Man-made emissions (in GtCO 2 e/yr) (N20, HFCs, CFCs, etc) Source: Randers et al 2016, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi:10.5194/esd-2016-13 J Randers 13
Temperature rise (in C over 1850) C 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Temperature rise over 1850 ( scale) ESCIMO with 2016 CO2 emissions ESCIMO Base run History NOAA 0.0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100-0.5 g161010 2052 - update 2016 Source: Randers et al 2016, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi:10.5194/esd-2016-13 J Randers 14
Sea level rise (in meters over 1850 level) m 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Sea level rise over 1850 ( scale) ESCIMO with 2016 CO2 emissions History ESCIMO Base run 0.0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100-0.2 g161010 2052 - update 2016 Source: Randers et al 2016, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi:10.5194/esd-2016-13 J Randers 15
The concentration of CO2 will peak in 2075 ppm 600 500 400 300 200 100 CO 2 concentration ( scale) ESCIMO with 2016 CO2 emissions ESCIMO Base run History g161010 2052 - update 2016 0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, www.2052.info 2016 J Randers 16
There will be huge regional differences 36 Consumption per person (in 1000 PPP US$ per person per year) USA 30 OECD China 24 World 18 BRISE RoW 12 6 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, www.2052.info 2016 J Randers 17
Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 2052 than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis Consumption growth will slow because society will have to spend ever more labour and capital on repair and adaptation The short-term nature of man - reflected in the short term focus of democracy and capitalism - is the root cause of this development J Randers 18
What should be done? To stop global warming it is enough to do a few things: 1. Replace all fossil generation of electricity with renewable (solar, wind and hydro) capacity 2. Replace all fossil based transport (cars, trucks, buses) with electric vehicles 3. Insulate all buildings to gold standard 4. Shift to climate-friendly procedures in agriculture, forestry and waste handling to get rid of the last 20 % of man-made emissions 5. Retrofit carbon capture and storage (CCS) on remaining point sources (cement, steel, etc) If done over next 35 years, the cost will be around 500 US$ per person per year. The funds could be obtained through green taxes (very unpopular) or by printing new money (very unconventional). J Randers 19
A much better future is indeed possible 1. Solving the climate challenge is technically feasible, and not very costly 2. It requires a shift of less than 2 % of the world s labor and capital from dirty to clean sectors 3. This solution will resisted by the incumbent workers and owners in the dirty sectors 4. And by those who dislike higher taxes and more regulation 5. The challenge is purely political. It amounts to finding ways to do the shift which is supported by a majority of the voters. The dream are climate policies that provide a short term benefit to a majority of the voters. J Randers 20
The EU carbon price has remained low Source: http://www.sightline.org/2014/07/02/four-carbon-pricing-pitfalls-to-avoid/ J Randers 21
Simpler to use regulation than the market Many good examples exist: a. The subsidy paid for solar and wind power in Germany (financing the energy transition) b. The exemption of electric cars in Norway from 100% import tax c. The ban of incandescent light bulbs in the EU (making low energy bulbs competitive) d. The ban of the use of heating oil in Oslo from 2020 (passed 10 years earlier) e. The green stimulus packages in Korea (paying workers to make the country more energy efficient) J Randers 22
It is time to act decisively! jorgen.randers@bi.no www.2052.info J Randers 23
50 % of human CO2 ends in the atmosphere CO2-flow in Gt/year 1. Emissions from energy production (grey) 2. Emissions from land clearing (brown) 3. Absorbed in forests and biomass (green) 4. Absorbed in oceans (blue) 5.To atmosphere (yellow) Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009 J Randers 24
Global Surface Temperature (in C over 1900) Source: Jim Hansen & M Sato, 2016, Based on GISTEMP analysis (mostly NOAA) J Randers 25
No decline in Norway s emissions since 2006 MtCO2e/år 65-120 60 55 Actual emissions Reference path -100 50 Low emissions path 45 40 GDP index (2006=100) Scale to the right - 80 35 30 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020-60 Source: Daniel Rees et al, Norsk klimapolitikk 2006-12, BI, Oslo, March 2013 J Randers 26
Example: 1 % spent on solar capacity is enough It costs 2 USD per W el to install solar panels That is 2 G$ per GW el The GDP (annual output) of the richest world (US and EU 15, some 600 million people) is around 30.000 G$ per year So one percent is 300 G$ per year, which is enough to install 150 Gw el per year Total energy use (both electricity, fuel and heat) in this part of the world is some 6.000 GW (around 10 kw per person) So by shifting 1 % of rich world GDP into building of solar capacity, one can replace all capacity in 40 years (= 6.000 / 150) i.e. by mid-century Source: The Economist, October 1 st 2016, p 41 J Randers 27
Temperature rise from various policies (in C) POLICY EXPERIMENTS WITH ESCIMO Source: Randers et al 2016, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi:10.5194/esd-2016-13 J Randers 28
Sea level rise from various policies (in m) POLICY EXPERIMENTS WITH ESCIMO Source: Randers et al 2016, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi:10.5194/esd-2016-13 J Randers 29
Q&A Professor Jorgen Randers & Dame Polly Courtice, Director, CISL For business briefings, research, and information on all our activities, visit www.cisl.cam.ac.uk J Randers 30