Core projects and scientific studies as background for the NREAPs 9th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Brussels, 18.11.2009 Mario Ragwitz Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research (Fh-ISI)
Questions to be assessed by studies Monitoring and evaluation of present support schemes Potentials and Costs of renewable energy sources by MS Scenarios of future RES deployment costs and benefits Macro-economic impacts of RES Strategies to integrate RES into electricity grids Implementation of cooperation mechanisms of RES Directive Assessment of biomass availability Consequences for the development of national support schemes Assessment of options to reduce non-economic barriers
Some core projects and scientific studies Implementation of 2020 RES-Directive REPAP2020: Renewable Energy Policy Action - Paving the Way towards 2020 RE-Shaping: Shaping an effective and efficient European renewable energy market Concerted action for the implementation of RES Directive General studies on RES targets, impacts and monitoring FORRES 2020: Analysis of the renewable energy sources evolution up to 2020 EMPLOY-RES: The impact of renewable energy policy on economic growth and employment in the European Union RES2020: Monitoring and Evaluation of the RES directives implementation in EU27 and policy recommendations for 2020 PROGRESS: promotion and growth of renewable energy sources and systems
Some core projects and scientific studies RES electricity: Green-X: Deriving optimal promotion strategies to increase the share of RES-E in a dynamic European electricity market OPTRES: Assessment and optimisation of renewable support schemes in the European electricity market FUTURES-e: Deriving a future European Policy for Renewable Electricity RES-Legal: current legislation on electricity in all 27 Members states, (promotion schemes, grid access, ): http://res-legal.eu/en/ Grid integration: Green-Net Incentives: Guiding a Least Cost Grid Integration of RES-Electricity in an extended Europe EWIS: European Wind Integration Study
Some core projects and scientific studies RES heat: K4RES-H: Key issues for Renewable Heat in Europe RES-H Policy: Policy development for improving RES-H/C penetration in European Member States Bioenergy BAP Driver: European Best Practice Report- Comparative assessment of national bioenergy strategies & biomass action plans in 12 EU countries. Sustainability Criteria and Certification Systems for Biomass Production Administrative Barriers WIND-BARRIERS: Analysis of administrative and grid access barriers affecting wind energy development in the EU27 A toolkit for policy makers Non-Cost-Barriers: Assessment of non-economic barriers for RES in the EU-27
Examples of selected results
Monitoring
Monitor support schemes for RES-E E in the EU Feed-in tariff SE FI Quota / TGC IE UK FR NL BE LU DK DE IT CZ AT SI PL SK HU EE LA LT Feed-in tariff and Quota / TGC Tax incentives / Investment grants Other system PT ES GR MT CY A clear majority of EU countries uses feed-in tariffs as main instrument 6 countries have implemented a quota obligation with TGCs
AT BE BG 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Feed-in tariff Quota / TGC Tender CY CZ DK EE Tax incentives / Investment grants Change of the system Adaptation of the system FI FR DE Wind Bioenergy PV HU GR IE IT LT Wind Bioenergy PV LU LV MT NL Wind Bioenergy PV PL PT RO ES SE SI SK UK
Current level of support and costs per Member State Example of wind onshore - Sept. 2009
Main policy developments on MS level Member States adapt ambition level of their policies to target level, e.g. banding of quota system in IT, RO and UK, new tariff levels for RES-E in DE, NL, SI,, UK feed-in system for RES-H and small scale RES-E MSs start to analyse the impact of specific flexibility measures on their renewable energy sector, first talks between different MSs and between MSs and third countries Too little progress on the reduction of non-economic barriers Financing constraints have been significant during last year and are not resolved for many Currently the forecast documents and National Renewable Energy Action Plans under development in all Member States
Potentials
Potentials by 2020 as compared to the targets of the Directive 20% RES by 2020 - proposed national RES targets 80% Total realisable RES potential up to 2020 Proposed RES targets for 2020 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland Slovakia Slovenia Bulgaria Romania EU27 Share in (final) energy demand by 2020 [%] How the European Commission set the targets FLAT RATE & GDP-Variation Brussels, November i.e.: 18th RES-target 2009 2020 = RES 2005% + 50% *RES NEW % + 50%* RES NEW % GDP-weighting - first mover bonus
Modelling costs and benefits
Future perspectives: a scenario on how to meet the challenge Green-X balanced scenario 1200 1000 Historical development Future development 800 600 400 200 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 RES-E - energy output [TWh/year] Wind offshore Wind onshore Tide & wave Solar thermal electricity Photovoltaics Hydro large-scale Hydro small-scale Geothermal electricity Biowaste Solid biomass Biogas Renewable Energy Roadmap (European Commission, January 2007) European Union 20% Renewable Energies by 2020 140 50 RES-H - energy output [Mtoe/year] 120 100 80 60 40 20 Historical development Future development Solar thermal heat Geothermal - heat pumps RES-T - energy output [Mtoe/year] Geothermal - non heat pumps Biomass heat 40 30 20 10 Historical development Future development Biofuels 0 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Macroeconomic impacts
Impact on RES policies on economic growth and employment
GDP effects of RES policies by 2020 Gross value added of RES sector as share of GDP in 2020 [%] 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 0.83 1.09 Total gross value added of RES sector 0.19 BAU ME ADP ME 0.44 Net GDP change due to RES sector [%] Gross value added of RES sector compared to "no policy" 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 0.25 0.14 0.11 Net GDP Change ASTRA compared to "no policy" BAU ME ADP ME 0.23 Net GDP Change NEMESIS compared to "no policy"
Employment effects of RES policies by 2020 Gross employment of RES sector in 2020 [thousand]. 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 0.00 2310 2830 Total gross employment of RES sector 567 BAU ME ADP ME 1,090 Net employment due to RES policy [thousand]. Gross employment of RES sector compared to "no policy" 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 0.00 201 417 Net employment change ASTRA compared to "no policy" 115 BAU ME ADP ME 396 Net employment change NEMESIS compared to "no policy"
Cooperation Measures
Designing and analysing different cooperation measures Statistical transfers Joint projects Joint support schemes Physical transfer from 3rd countries
Analysing future RES deployment Country-specific contributions to achieve 20% RES by 2020? RES deployment by 2020 [TWh] 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Austria Belgium Bulgaria (incl. biofuel trade Required RES deployment by 2020 Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Imported RES volumes RES volumes for export National RES deployment for domestic target fulfillment Italy Latvia Lithuania the required flexibility to reach proposed national RES targets Deployment of RES in total (in absolute terms by 2020 at country level) trade) and the required statistical transfer between MS (i.e. imports / exports) (according to the "strengthened national policies scenario using the Green-X model) Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Source: EEG, TU Vienna Required imports / exports by 2020 ~3% of total generation Sweden United Kingdom
Main studies on NREAPs in detail
Examples of ongoing studies in the area EU Projects analysing the implementation of the 2020 RES Directive at European and national level, e.g. RE-SHAPING: Shaping an effective and efficient European renewable energy market REPAP2020: Renewable Energy Policy Action Paving the way towards 2020 National studies to implement 2020 RES Directive Studies with international organisations assessing the options for cooperation with 3rd countries
Detailed objectives of the studies Ex-ante design of national road maps / action plans and ex-post evaluation of the national renewable action plans Evaluation of the effectiveness and efficiency of present national RES policies Design of improved policy schemes and cooperation mechanisms Assisting MS to derive the forecast documents, incl. surplus & deficit of domestic generation compared to national target Assessment of interactions of RES policies with overall climate, energy and innovation policy and with the (liberalised) energy markets Analyse the impact of financing instruments on RES development
Drafting national roadmaps in the REPAP2020 project Main task: develop roadmaps for each of the 27 MS including the sectors electricity, heat and transport Involve the viewpoint of national stakeholders Compiling the 27 national roadmaps to one European RES industry roadmap Roadmaps will contain the current status, future potentials, detailed deployment scenarios per technology and sector as well as the necessary policies and framework conditions until 2020. Roadmaps will serve as a basis for the drafting of the National Action Plans.
Main objectives of the RE-Shaping project Development of a comprehensive policy background for RES support instruments Assisting Member State governments in setting up sector specific RES targets and action plans for 2020 (and 2030) as required by the proposed RES Directive Deriving best practice RES policy options, including guarantee of origin trading to allow the achievement of national 2020 targets at lowest cots for European consumers Producing a sound analysis of an in improved integration of RES policies with emission trading, the internal energy market and innovation policy. Providing Member State governments detailed and scientifically based input on diverse support policy options for RES; in this respect assisting Member State governments in developing sound policies to foster RES market penetration as required by the proposed RES Directive.
Main objectives of the RE-Shaping project Providing the European Commission and Member States with scientifically based and statistically robust indicators to measure the success of currently implemented policies. Proposing innovative financing schemes, which allow for lower costs and better capital availability in RES financing. Initiation of National Policy Processes which attempt to stimulate debate and offer a meeting place for key stakeholders aiming to discuss drawing up and implementing RES targets as well as options to improve national policies to foster RES market penetration. Assessing options to implement cooperation measures of the Directive
Please contact the RE-Shaping consortium to arrange for expert talks on the implementation of the RES Directive in your country m.ragwitz@isi.fraunhofer.de