TABLE OF CONTENTS PART A PART B GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS SPECIAL FOCUS ON NATURAL GAS PART C CHINA ENERGY OUTLOOK ANNEXES
INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE 1 OVERVIEW 2 ENERGY, EMISSIONS AND UNIVERSAL ACCESS 3 OUTLOOK FOR OIL 4 OUTLOOK FOR COAL 5 POWER MARKETS AND ELECTRIFICATION 6 ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK 7 OUTLOOK FOR NATURAL GAS 8 THE NEW GAS ORDER 9 THE ENVIRONMENTAL CASE FOR NATURAL GAS 10 NATURAL GAS IN A CHANGING ENERGY WORLD 11 ENERGY IN CHINA TODAY 12 OUTLOOK FOR CHINA S ENERGY DEMAND 13 OUTLOOK FOR CHINA S ENERGY SUPPLY AND INVESTMENT 14 GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS OF ENERGY POLICY REFORMS IN CHINA 15 ANNEXES
Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 Executive Summary 23 Part A: Global Energy Trends 31 1 Introduction and scope 33 1.1 The scenarios 34 1.2 Developing the scenarios 41 1.2.1 Inputs to the modelling 45 1.2.2 International prices and technology costs 51 2 Overview 63 2.1 How much energy does the world need, and where? 64 2.2 Where now for energy in the United States? 68 2.3 What does China s energy revolution mean for its energy outlook, and for the world? 72 2.4 What is the next move for energy-related CO 2 emissions? 77 2.5 How much do energy policies matter? 81 2.6 Are new technologies bringing us closer to universal access to electricity? 85 2.7 Is natural gas a fuel in good shape for the future? 89 2.8 Can oil prices stay lower for much longer? 93 2.9 Is the future switching towards electricity? 98 2.10 Is offshore energy yesterday s news or tomorrow s headlines? 103 3 Energy, emissions and universal access 107 3.1 Introduction 108 3.2 Recent trends and developments 110 3.3 Trends in the New Policies Scenario 114 3.3.1 Outlook for energy access 114 3.3.2 Outlook for energy-related GHG emissions 117 3.3.3 Outlook for energy-related air pollution 125 3.4 The Sustainable Development Scenario 129 3.4.1 Background 129 16 World Energy Outlook 2017
3.4.2 Methodology and key assumptions 130 3.4.3 Trends in the Sustainable Development Scenario 136 3.5 What does it take to achieve a faster low-carbon energy transition? 148 4 Outlook for oil 153 4.1 Recent market and policy developments 154 4.2 Trends by scenario 155 4.2.1 Market dynamics to 2025 155 4.2.2 Long-term scenarios to 2040 156 4.3 A closer look at the New Policies Scenario 162 4.3.1 Demand 162 4.3.2 Supply 174 4.3.3 Refining 189 4.3.4 Trade and oil security 192 4.3.5 Investment 200 5 Outlook for coal 203 5.1 Recent market and policy developments 204 5.2 Trends to 2040 by scenario 205 5.2.1 Market dynamics to 2025 205 5.2.2 Long-term scenarios to 2040 206 5.3 A closer look at the New Policies Scenario 210 5.3.1 Demand 210 5.3.2 Supply 213 5.3.3 Regional insights 218 6 Power markets and electrification 229 6.1 Recent market developments 230 6.2 Electricity demand 233 6.2.1 Trends to 2040 by scenario 233 6.2.2 Electrification: changing sources of growth 234 6.2.3 Electricity demand and economic growth 239 6.3 Electricity supply 240 6.3.1 Recent policy developments 240 6.3.2 Power generation capacity 244 6.3.3 Investment 250 6.3.4 Electricity generation 256 Table of Contents 17
6.3.5 Fossil-fuel consumption in power 261 6.3.6 Power sector CO 2 and pollutant emissions 263 6.3.7 Technology costs and competitiveness 266 6.3.8 Support for renewables-based electricity 272 6.3.9 Power generation costs and electricity prices 276 7 Energy efficiency and renewable energy 281 7.1 Introduction 282 7.2 Energy efficiency 282 7.2.1 Current status 282 7.2.2 Outlook for energy efficiency 285 7.3 Renewables 295 7.3.1 Current status 295 7.3.2 Outlook for renewables 298 7.4 Some implications 306 7.4.1 Investments in renewables and energy efficiency 307 7.4.2 The impact of renewables and energy efficiency on import bills 308 7.5 Interlinkages between energy efficiency and renewables 309 7.5.1 Demand-side response: a meeting point for energy efficiency and variable renewables-based electricity 311 7.5.2 Efficient supply of clean industrial heat 317 7.5.3 Expanding building energy codes to cover renewables 322 7.5.4 The multiple benefits of a joint approach 326 Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas 331 8 Outlook for natural gas 333 8.1 Recent market and policy developments 334 8.2 Trends to 2040 by scenario 335 8.2.1 Market dynamics to 2025 335 8.2.2 Long-term scenarios to 2040 337 8.3 A closer look at the New Policies Scenario 339 8.3.1 Demand 339 8.3.2 Supply 345 8.3.3 Regional demand and supply insights 350 8.3.4 Trade and investment 360 18 World Energy Outlook 2017
9 The new gas order 367 9.1 Introduction 368 9.2 The US shale storm and its repercussions 370 9.2.1 Production 370 9.2.2 Implications for North America 374 9.2.3 Implications for global market dynamics 378 9.3 The emergence of a new gas order 382 9.3.1 Pricing of gas 382 9.3.2 Contracts in gas trade 386 9.3.3 Investments and security of supply 388 9.3.4 Affordability of gas 394 9.3.5 What underpins our New Policies Scenario? 396 10 The environmental case for natural gas 399 10.1 The environmental credentials of natural gas 400 10.1.1 Assessing the environmental credentials of natural gas 400 10.2 Methane emissions: how big is the problem? 403 10.2.1 Methane emissions from the energy sector 406 10.2.2 Methane emissions from oil and gas operations 407 10.3 Tackling methane emissions 418 10.4 Costs and benefits of action on methane emissions 423 10.4.1 Marginal abatement cost curves 424 10.4.2 Climate impacts of methane emissions abatement 431 10.4.3 Summary of costs and benefits 432 10.5 An agenda for action 433 11 Natural gas in a changing energy world 437 11.1 Introduction 438 11.2 Historical perspectives on coal-to-gas switching 438 11.3 Natural gas use in the New Policies Scenario 441 11.3.1 Analysis by sector and region 444 11.3.2 Limits to the environmental contribution of gas 447 11.4 Natural gas in the Sustainable Development Scenario 449 11.4.1 Analysis by sector and region 450 11.5 Trade and investment 460 11.6 Decarbonising gas supply 466 Table of Contents 19
Part C: China Energy Outlook 469 12 Energy in China today 471 12.1 Introducing the special focus on China 472 12.2 Energy trends in China today 474 12.2.1 Energy demand 474 12.2.2 Focus on energy in China s regions and provinces 481 12.2.3 China and global energy markets 486 12.3 Factors affecting China s energy development 491 12.3.1 Economic transition 493 12.3.2 Demographics and urbanisation 495 12.3.3 Environment 496 12.3.4 Investment 498 12.3.5 Energy governance and policies 499 13 Outlook for China s energy demand 507 13.1 China: shifting gears 508 13.2 Overview 509 13.2.1 Trends by fuel 510 13.3 End-use sectors 512 13.3.1 Industry 515 13.3.2 Transport 523 13.3.3 Buildings 530 13.4 Power sector 538 13.4.1 Background 538 13.4.2 Trends in the New Policies Scenario 540 13.4.3 Power sector reforms 545 13.5 Environmental implications 554 13.5.1 Energy-related CO 2 emissions 555 13.5.2 Energy-related air pollution 557 14 Outlook for China s energy supply and investment 561 14.1 Overview of key supply and investment trends 562 14.2 Coal 563 14.2.1 Market structure and regulation 563 14.2.2 Outlook for coal 568 20 World Energy Outlook 2017
14.3 Oil 572 14.3.1 Market structure and reform 572 14.3.2 Outlook for oil 575 14.3.3 Oil trade and refining 579 14.4 Natural gas 584 14.4.1 Market structure and reform 584 14.4.2 Gas imports 594 14.5 Renewables 596 14.5.1 Bioenergy 597 14.5.2 Hydropower 598 14.5.3 Solar 599 14.5.4 Wind 600 14.5.5 Geothermal 602 14.6 Nuclear 602 14.7 Investment 603 15 Global implications of energy policy reforms in China 607 15.1 Introduction 608 15.2 A recap of key trends in the New Policies Scenario 608 15.2.1 Demand trends 608 15.2.2 CO 2 emissions trends 610 15.2.3 Key milestones reached in the New Policies Scenario 613 15.3 What if the macroeconomic transition is slower? 613 15.3.1 Macroeconomic transition in the New Policies Scenario 613 15.3.2 Implications of a slower economic transition 617 15.3.3 Conclusions 620 15.4 What if the clean energy transition is faster? 620 15.4.1 A possible pathway to a cleaner energy sector 621 15.4.2 China s investment needs in the Sustainable Development Scenario 627 15.4.3 Conclusions 628 15.5 Global implications of China s energy development 628 15.5.1 Oil, gas and coal markets 629 15.5.2 Low-carbon technologies 636 Table of Contents 21
Annexes 639 Annex A. Tables for scenario projections 641 A.1. Fossil fuel production and demand by region 644 A.2. Energy demand, gross electricity generation and electrical capacity, and carbon-dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion by region 648 A.3. Global emissions of pollutants by energy sector and fuel 724 Annex B. Policies and measures by scenario 727 Annex C. Definitions 739 Annex D. References 753 22 World Energy Outlook 2017
List of figures Part A: Global Energy Trends Figures for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 Global energy-related CO 2 emissions 42 1.2 Change in total primary energy production and demand in IEA member countries relative to the Middle East, 2005-2015 43 1.3 Evolution of China policy targets and projections for solar PV installed capacity, and solar PV levelised costs, in selected WEOs 44 1.4 Range of prices paid by consumers for final energy, 2015 47 1.5 Average IEA crude oil import price by scenario and case 54 1.6 Natural gas prices by key region in the New Policies Scenario 55 1.7 Steam coal prices by key region in the New Policies Scenario 57 1.8 Evolution of global average cost for selected technologies in the New Policies Scenario 60 Figures for Chapter 2: Overview 2.1 Modern primary energy demand per capita by scenario 66 2.2 Share of IEA members and Association countries in world primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario 68 2.3 US oil and gas production in the New Policies Scenario 69 2.4 Rise in US tight oil to 2025 in the New Policies Scenario 70 2.5 US net fossil fuel trade by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 71 2.6 Concentration of PM 2.5 in China in the New Policies Scenario 73 2.7 Contribution of China to change in fossil-fuel demand and low-carbon generation in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 74 2.8 China net fossil-fuel trade by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 76 2.9 World primary energy demand by fuel and energy-related CO 2 emissions by scenario 78 2.10 Contribution of energy efficiency and renewables to global reductions in energy-related CO 2 emissions by scenario 81 2.11 Share of variable renewables in power generation in selected regions by scenario 83 2.12 Estimated value of global fossil-fuel consumption subsidies 84 2.13 Population without access to electricity in the New Policies Scenario 86 2.14 Cumulative population gaining access to electricity in the New Policies Scenario and the Energy for All Case, 2017-2030 88 2.15 Growth in natural gas demand by sector and by region in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 90 2.16 Global gas trade by mode in the New Policies Scenario 92 2.17 Change in world oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 95 2.18 Powertrain cost comparison of conventional and electric cars in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario, 2025 96 2.19 Global end-user energy expenditure by fuel and by scenario 99 2.20 Cumulative global energy investment by scenario, 2017-2040 100 2.21 Global offshore production and generation by scenario 104 2.22 Average annual offshore energy investment by scenario 105 20-I World Energy Outlook 2017
Figures for Chapter 3: Energy, emissions and universal access 3.1 People without access to electricity and clean cooking facilities 110 3.2 Change in global economic output, energy-related CO 2 and air pollutant emissions 111 3.3 Number of people without electricity access by region in the New Policies Scenario 115 3.4 Premature deaths from household air pollution and population lacking access to clean cooking in the New Policies Scenario 117 3.5 Three speeds of CO 2 emissions growth in the New Policies Scenario 118 3.6 CO 2 emissions per capita for selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 120 3.7 CO 2 emissions from oil use in transport and coal use in power generation in the New Policies Scenario 123 3.8 Annual CO 2 emissions growth by sector and by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 124 3.9 Change in air pollutants emissions by region and premature deaths from outdoor air pollution in the New Policies Scenario, 2015-2040 125 3.10 Global energy demand and air pollutant emissions by sector in the New Policies Scenario 128 3.11 Connecting individual policy targets in the Sustainable Development Scenario 130 3.12 The Sustainable Development Scenario relative to other recent decarbonisation scenarios 134 3.13 Impacts of the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 137 3.14 Shares of population exposed to various PM 2.5 concentrations by WHO interim targets/guidelines in selected regions by scenario 138 3.15 Global CO 2 emissions reductions in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios 139 3.16 Air pollutant emissions savings by policy area in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 140 3.17 Key indicators for India in the Clean Energy Ambition Case and the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios 142 3.18 Fossil-fuel demand by scenario and decline by sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 145 3.19 Power generation by source (left) and installed capacity (right) in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2040 146 3.20 Cumulative investment needs by sector in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios, 2017-2040 147 3.21 Fossil-fuel import bill savings in importing regions in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 148 3.22 Deployment levels of electric cars and solar PV by scenario 150 3.23 Additional average annual investment needs and changes in energy demand in the Faster Transition Scenario relative to the Sustainable Development Scenario 151 Figures for Chapter 4: Outlook for oil 4.1 Difference in oil demand by sector in the Low Oil Price Case relative to the New Policies Scenario 159 4.2 Changes in oil production by region in the New Policies Scenario and Low Oil Price Case 160 Table of Contents 20-II
4.3 Change in global oil demand by sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2016-2040 161 4.4 Change in global oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 164 4.5 Global road freight fuel demand by vehicle category in the New Policies Scenario 167 4.6 Global GDP, total primary energy demand, CO 2 emissions and chemicals demand trajectories in the New Policies Scenario 169 4.7 Change in global oil product demand for petrochemical feedstock in the New Policies Scenario 170 4.8 Potential additional impact of material efficiency improvements on oil demand for plastics production, 2040 172 4.9 Change in global oil product demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 174 4.10 Change in non-opec and OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario 176 4.11 Reductions in the capital cost per barrel for developing conventional oil projects 180 4.12 Evolution of average capital cost per barrel for conventional oil projects by scenario 181 4.13 US tight liquids production in the New Policies Scenario 183 4.14 Deepwater and ultra-deepwater production by region in the New Policies Scenario 185 4.15 Change in crude oil trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 192 4.16 US oil net trade balance in the New Policies Scenario 194 4.17 Change in crude export availability in the Middle East in the New Policies Scenario 195 4.18 Asia Pacific crude oil imports and the Middle East s export availability in the New Policies Scenario 196 4.19 90-days oil demand and stockholding coverage of IEA member countries in the New Policies Scenario 198 Figures for Chapter 5: Outlook for coal 5.1 Global coal demand and share of coal in world primary energy demand by scenario 208 5.2 Average OECD steam coal import price and global coal trade by scenario 209 5.3 Incremental coal demand by key sector and region in the New Policies Scenario 212 5.4 Global trade by coal type in the New Policies Scenario 215 5.5 Average FOB cash costs for global seaborne steam coal trade and Richard s Bay FOB coal price 217 5.6 Delivered cost of coal and natural gas to different power systems in the United States 219 5.7 Auction results for solar PV in India 222 5.8 FOB cash costs for global seaborne steam coal trade 224 5.9 Change in net coal imports by key region in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 226 20-III World Energy Outlook 2017
Figures for Chapter 6: Power markets and electrification 6.1 Global power generation capacity additions for fossil fuels, wind power and solar PV 231 6.2 Evolution of electricity demand in the three WEO scenarios 233 6.3 Annual average growth of final energy demand historically and in the New Policies Scenario 235 6.4 Electricity demand by end-use in the New Policies Scenario 236 6.5 Relationship between electricity intensity of the economy and income, historically and in the New Policies Scenario 240 6.6 Installed power generation capacity by type in the New Policies Scenario 244 6.7 Share of renewables in total capacity additions by region in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 245 6.8 Global average annual capacity additions and retirements by technology in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 246 6.9 Top-five regions by installed capacity of nuclear power plants in the New Policies Scenario 250 6.10 Global annual average power sector investment and cumulative investment to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario 251 6.11 Average project cost, number of projects and capacity additions historically and projected in the New Policies Scenario 253 6.12 Total electricity generation by region in 2016 and growth to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario 258 6.13 Electricity generation by existing and new power plants by type in the New Policies Scenario 259 6.14 Share of total generation by type worldwide and in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 260 6.15 Decoupling of global GDP growth and fossil-fuel consumption in electricity generation in the New Policies Scenario 261 6.16 Share of coal consumption by technology in electricity and heat production in the New Policies Scenario 262 6.17 Gas consumption in electricity generation with and without projected efficiency gains over time in the New Policies Scenario 263 6.18 Global power sector CO 2 emissions by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 264 6.19 Reduction of power sector CO 2 emissions in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario from 2016 to 2040 265 6.20 Pollutant emissions in the power sector by fuel with and without enhanced pollution controls in the New Policies Scenario 266 6.21 Historical and projected levelised costs of electricity by selected technology in the New Policies Scenario 269 6.22 Indicative annual costs and revenue needs for batteries and gas GTs in the United States and European Union, 2030 272 6.23 Renewables-based electricity support and cumulative total generation in the New Policies Scenario 273 6.24 Share of supported wind and solar PV generation by mechanism type in the New Policies Scenario 275 6.25 Average power generation costs by region in the New Policies Scenario 277 6.26 Average industry electricity prices by region and cost component in the New Policies Scenario 278 6.27 Average household electricity prices by region in the New Policies Scenario 279 6.28 End-user energy expenditure in the New Policies Scenario 280 Table of Contents 20-IV
Figures for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency and renewable energy 7.1 Share of global final energy consumption covered by mandatory efficiency regulations by sector 283 7.2 Global energy intensity reduction by scenario 285 7.3 Average annual change in final energy consumption in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 286 7.4 Energy intensity and energy use per capita in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 287 7.5 Avoided final energy demand in 2040 due to energy efficiency policies by fuel, sector and region in the New Policies Scenario 289 7.6 Avoided industrial electricity use in motor systems by region and measure in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 291 7.7 Residential LED stock and lighting electricity demand in the New Policies Scenario 294 7.8 Renewable energy use by sector from a consumer perspective and by region in the New Policies Scenario 301 7.9 Renewable energy use by sector and source in the New Policies Scenario 302 7.10 Solar PV and solar thermal rooftop area in the New Policies Scenario 303 7.11 Potential sustainable feedstock and requirements to meet biofuels demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 305 7.12 Average annual global energy efficiency and renewables investments in the New Policies Scenario 308 7.13 Fossil-fuel net-import bills for selected regions and savings enabled by energy efficiency and renewables in the New Policies Scenario 309 7.14 Examples of technologies contributing to energy efficiency, renewables or electrification targets 311 7.15 DSR potential and generation from variable renewables in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios 313 7.16 Growth in global industrial heat demand by temperature level in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 319 7.17 Change in global industrial heat supply mix by temperature level by scenario, 2016-2040 320 7.18 Floor area in residential buildings and CO 2 emissions related to space conditioning and water heating in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios 323 7.19 Building energy performance levels in India s Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) 325 7.20 Change in key indicators in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios in 2040 relative to 2016 326 7.21 Global energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement and key contributions in the Sustainable Development Scenario 327 Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas Figures for Chapter 8: Outlook for natural gas 8.1 Liquefaction capacity currently under construction by key countries and year of first commercial operation 336 20-V World Energy Outlook 2017
8.2 World natural gas demand by scenario 338 8.3 Gas demand in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 340 8.4 Key natural gas demand growth centres, additional use in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 341 8.5 Change in gas demand versus price in Germany, United Kingdom and United States, 1983-2016 342 8.6 Annualised growth of global natural gas demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 344 8.7 Coalbed methane production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario 349 8.8 Russian gas exports by destination and aggregate utilisation of export capacity in the New Policies Scenario 351 8.9 Natural gas balance of the European Union in the New Policies Scenario 353 8.10 Change in natural gas production in selected developing countries in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 357 8.11 Change in gas imports by selected region and transport mode in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 362 8.12 Selected global gas trade flows in the New Policies Scenario (bcm) 363 8.13 Change in net gas exports by selected region in the New Policies Scenario 364 8.14 Evolution of the LNG vessel fleet and the average shipping distance in the New Policies Scenario 365 Figures for Chapter 9: The new gas order 9.1 US gas production by type in the New Policies Scenario 371 9.2 Rise in US shale gas output versus the steepest ramp-up in gas production in the Soviet Union 372 9.3 Average costs of resources developed in the New Policies Scenario by year and average Henry Hub price 373 9.4 Indexed production growth of selected chemicals in the United States in the New Policies Scenario 375 9.5 US pipeline gas trade by destination in the New Policies Scenario 376 9.6 Indicative well-head breakeven cost of various shale gas plays in North America 377 9.7 Selected LNG exports in the New Policies Scenario 379 9.8 US LNG net exports by destination and market share in the global LNG trade in the New Policies Scenario 380 9.9 Delivered cost of different sources of gas to Europe and Asia, 2025 381 9.10 Market shares in inter-regional gas trade by exporter in WEO 2017 and the WEO-2016, 2040 382 9.11 Global long-distance gas trade by transport mode and pricing method in the New Policies Scenario 383 9.12 Total volume of LNG contracts concluded between 2011 and 2016 by size and duration 387 9.13 Already contracted versus projected global LNG capacity in the New Policies Scenario 389 9.14 Estimated average time to procure an extra 10% of LNG import volumes by selected importer in the New Policies Scenario 391 9.15 Annualised potential to reduce demand for gas by switching to coal in selected power systems 392 9.16 Fuel price evolution in North America and East Asia in the New Policies Scenario 395 Table of Contents 20-VI
Figures for Chapter 10: The environmental case for natural gas 10.1 Share of natural gas in total energy-related emissions of selected air pollutants and CO 2, 2015 401 10.2 Sources of methane emissions, 2012 404 10.3 Scope of methane emissions included in analysis 409 10.4 Ratio of measured emission factors to assumed or estimated emission factors from pre-2014 studies in the United States 410 10.5 Reported oil- and gas-related methane emissions for 2005 from the US Greenhouse Gas Inventory annual reports 411 10.6 Measurement studies for various facilities indicating the prevalence of super-emitting sources 412 10.7 Regional and sectoral breakdown of methane emissions from oil and gas operations, 2015 414 10.8 Comparison of recent assessments of global oil- and gas-related methane emissions 416 10.9 Greenhouse-gas emission intensity of natural gas compared with coal 417 10.10 Methane emission intensity of oil, gas and coal in the United States 421 10.11 Global marginal abatement cost curve for oil and gas methane emissions by source, 2015 426 10.12 Marginal abatement cost curve for oil- and gas-related methane emissions by region, 2015 428 10.13 Oil- and gas-related methane emissions in the New Policies Scenario with and without abatement measures 429 10.14 Oil- and gas-related methane emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario with and without abatement measures 430 Figures for Chapter 11: Natural gas in a changing energy world 11.1 US electricity generation by fuel and related CO 2 emissions 439 11.2 Historical fuel consumption shares by sector in the United Kingdom 440 11.3 Change in global primary energy demand by scenario, 2016-40 442 11.4 Global air pollutant emissions in the New Policies Scenario 443 11.5 Average CO 2 emissions intensity of electricity generation in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 444 11.6 Change in industrial energy consumption in China by type in the New Policies Scenario 446 11.7 Global gas consumption in road and maritime transport in the New Policies Scenario 446 11.8 Global primary energy demand in the Sustainable Development Scenario 449 11.9 Gas demand by region in the Sustainable Development Scenario 451 11.10 Share of coal and gas in energy demand in selected regions in the Sustainable Development Scenario 451 11.11 Gas demand by sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario 453 11.12 Natural gas-fired capacity and average utilisation rates in selected regions in the Sustainable Development Scenario 453 11.13 Average CO 2 emissions intensity of electricity generation in selected regions in the Sustainable Development Scenario 454 11.14 Average and peak natural gas demand in Japan and the United States by sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario 458 20-VII World Energy Outlook 2017
11.15 Average and peak natural gas demand in Japan and United States in the Sustainable Development Scenario 460 11.16 Global pipeline and LNG trade by scenario 461 11.17 Average annual investment into gas infrastructure by scenario 462 11.18 Global gas demand in a Disjointed Transition Case 464 11.19 Global liquefaction capacity and demand in the New Policies Scenario and the Disjointed Transition Case 465 Part C: China Energy Outlook Figures for Chapter 12: Energy in China today 12.1 Comparisons in average annual growth rates for selected indicators in China, 2000-2013 versus 2014-2016 472 12.2 China s share of selected global indicators 473 12.3 Comparison of China s primary energy demand by fuel and final consumption by sector with the rest of the world average, 2016 474 12.4 Primary energy demand by fuel in China 476 12.5 Annual power generation capacity additions by type in China 477 12.6 Power generation mix in China 478 12.7 Historical end-user energy expenditure in China 479 12.8 Total final energy consumption by sector in China 480 12.9 China s provinces by population density and main regions in 2015 482 12.10 Total final energy consumption by sector in China, 2015 484 12.11 Total fossil-fuel production in selected countries, 2016 485 12.12 Primary energy production and total final energy consumption by fuel and region in China, 2015 486 12.13 Chinese coal imports by source, 2016 488 12.14 Refining capacity and demand for oil products in China 489 12.15 Solar PV exports from China, 2016 490 12.16 Changing structure of the economy in China (share of value added by sector) 495 12.17 China energy supply investments 499 12.18 China s national administrative structure for energy 500 Figures for Chapter 13: Outlook for China s energy demand 13.1 Primary energy demand per unit of GDP in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 509 13.2 Energy demand by fuel in selected end-use sectors in China in the New Policies Scenario 515 13.3 Output of selected industrial products by region in China, 2015 516 13.4 Industrial development trajectory and energy intensity in China in a global context in the New Policies Scenario 519 13.5 China industry energy mix and related output by sector in the New Policies Scenario 521 13.6 Impact of a delay in the reduction of steel and cement production on total energy demand from industry in China, relative to the New Policies Scenario 522 Table of Contents 20-VIII
13.7 Oil demand in China s transport sector, 2000-2016 523 13.8 China energy demand in transport by fuel and mode in the New Policies Scenario 526 13.9 China average annual growth of passenger car fuel use and vehicle stock by region and EV share in the New Policies Scenario 527 13.10 China passenger car ownership in selected provinces and two variations of future car ownership and oil demand 528 13.11 Average energy consumption, number of appliances and floor area per household in China s urban and rural areas 531 13.12 District heating network by province and share of urban population with access to natural gas in 2015 532 13.13 Indicators for the development of the services sector in China 533 13.14 China buildings energy consumption by fuel and end-use in the New Policies Scenario 535 13.15 China buildings heat demand by end-use and fuel in the New Policies Scenario 537 13.16 Installed capacity by technology in China in the New Policies Scenario 540 13.17 Electricity generation by fuel in China in the New Policies Scenario 542 13.18 Historical and projected levelised cost of electricity by selected technology in China in the New Policies Scenario 543 13.19 Electricity supply costs by component in China in the New Policies Scenario 544 13.20 Annual average investment for power plants and networks in China in the New Policies Scenario 545 13.21 Electricity generation mix by province in China, 2016 547 13.22 Total generation and curtailment of wind and solar PV in China 548 13.23 China electricity generation mix by region and net electricity trade flows in the New Policies Scenario 550 13.24 China hourly generation mix and electricity trade for the Northwest, North, East and Central regions in 2030 551 13.25 China average hourly wholesale energy market prices by region in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 554 13.26 Energy-related CO 2 emissions by sector and peak year in China in the New Policies Scenario 555 13.27 CO 2 emissions from the power sector in China in the New Policies Scenario 556 13.28 Concentration of PM 2.5 in China in the New Policies Scenario 558 13.29 Emissions by air pollutant and by sector in China in the New Policies Scenario 559 Figures for Chapter 14: Outlook for China s energy supply and investment 14.1 Investments required versus investments actually made in coal mining in China 564 14.2 China domestic coal price evolution 2012-2017 565 14.3 China domestic steam coal production cost curve by mine size, 2016 566 14.4 Coal industry restructuring: production by selected province in China and mining capacity in the New Policies Scenario 567 14.5 China s coking coal demand by source and steel output by production route 569 14.6 China coal production by mine type in the New Policies Scenario 570 14.7 Coal mining productivity in selected countries 571 20-IX World Energy Outlook 2017
14.8 Breakdown of refining capacity in China, end-2016 573 14.9 China s oil production in the New Policies Scenario 577 14.10 Required annual investment for China s oil supply by production level 578 14.11 China s crude oil import volume and associated import bill in the New Policies Scenario 580 14.12 China s crude oil imports by origin and route 581 14.13 Gasoline and diesel demand in China in the New Policies Scenario 582 14.14 Trade balance of key refined products in China in the New Policies Scenario 584 14.15 Average natural gas import prices and average city-gate benchmark price in China 587 14.16 Natural gas demand in China and production by type in the New Policies Scenario 591 14.17 Indicative production cost ranges for different sources of gas in China, 2025 593 14.18 Natural gas imports in China by exporter and transport mode in the New Policies Scenario 594 14.19 Installed power generation capacity in China in the New Policies Scenario 597 Figures for Chapter 15: Global implications of energy policy reforms in China 15.1 Change in world primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 609 15.2 Energy-related CO 2 emissions and per-capita energy-related CO 2 emissions in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 611 15.3 Timeline of major energy milestones for China, historical and projected in the New Policies Scenario 612 15.4 Demand for goods and services in selected sectors in China in the New Policies Scenario 614 15.5 Sectoral value-added contributions to overall economic growth in China, New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 615 15.6 Share of exports by sector in total Chinese exports in the New Policies Scenario 616 15.7 Foregone benefits due to a slower economic and energy transition in China in the Current Policies Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 619 15.8 China CO 2 emissions in the Sustainable Development and New Policies Scenarios 622 15.9 Concentration of PM 2.5 in China in the Sustainable Development Scenario 623 15.10 Key indicators of China s low-carbon transition in the Sustainable Development Scenario 625 15.11 Additional average annual investment needs and change in fossil-fuel import bills in China in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 628 15.12 China s net energy imports and share of global trade by scenario 629 15.13 China s crude oil import by origin in the New Policies Scenario 631 15.14 LNG imports and contracted volume by supplier in China in the New Policies Scenario 634 15.15 Natural decline of coal production versus retirement rates for China s coal-fired capacity 635 15.16 China s share of cumulative global investment in selected fuels and technologies in the New Policies Scenario 637 15.17 Global CO 2 emissions savings from China s export of solar PV panels and batteries for electric cars by scenario 638 Table of Contents 20-X
Figures for Annex C: Definitions C.1 Liquid fuels classification 745 C.2 World Energy Outlook main country groupings 749 List of tables Part A: Global Energy Trends Tables for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 CO 2 price in selected regions by scenario ($2016 per tonne) 48 1.2 Real GDP growth assumptions by region 49 1.3 Population assumptions by region 50 1.4 Fossil-fuel import prices by scenario 52 Tables for Chapter 2: Overview 2.1 World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario (Mtoe) 65 2.2 World primary energy demand by fuel and scenario (Mtoe) 79 2.3 Global energy investment by type and scenario, 2017-2040 ($2016 billion) 101 Tables for Chapter 3: Energy, emissions and universal access 3.1 Selected recent climate change and air pollution policy developments 113 3.2 Selected climate and clean energy targets from sub-national actors including cities, states and companies 122 3.3 Selected policy priorities to address climate change and reduce air pollutant emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario 133 3.4 World primary energy demand in the Sustainable Development Scenario (Mtoe) 144 Tables for Chapter 4: Outlook for oil 4.1 Oil and total liquids demand and supply by scenario (mb/d) 157 4.2 Oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) 163 4.3 Selected recent initiatives for electric mobility 165 4.4 Remaining technically recoverable oil resources by type and region, end-2016 (billion barrels) 175 4.5 World oil supply by type in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) 177 4.6 Non-OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) 186 4.7 OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) 189 4.8 World liquids demand in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) 190 4.9 Refining capacity and runs by region in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) 191 4.10 Cumulative oil and gas supply investment by region in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 ($2016 billion) 201 Tables for Chapter 5: Outlook for coal 5.1 World coal demand, production and trade by scenario (Mtce) 207 5.2 Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario (Mtce) 211 5.3 Remaining recoverable coal resources, end-2015 (billion tonnes) 213 20-XI World Energy Outlook 2017
5.4 Coal production by region in the New Policies Scenario (Mtce) 214 5.5 Coal trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 216 Tables for Chapter 6: Power markets and electrification 6.1 Electricity demand by region and scenario (TWh) 238 6.2 Recent developments in regional power sector policies included in the New Policies Scenario 241 6.3 Cumulative power plant capacity retirements by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 (GW) 248 6.4 Cumulative gross power plant capacity additions by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 (GW) 249 6.5 Cumulative investment in the power sector by region and type in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 ($2016 billion) 252 6.6 World electricity generation by source and scenario (TWh) 257 Tables for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency and renewable energy 7.1 Selected energy efficiency policies announced or introduced since mid-2016 284 7.2 Selected renewable energy targets proposed or introduced since mid-2016 297 7.3 World renewable energy consumption by scenario 299 7.4 Current status of DSR enablers in various electricity markets 314 7.5 Realising demand-side response potential 316 7.6 Common industrial low- and medium-temperature processes 318 Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas Tables for Chapter 8: Outlook for natural gas 8.1 Natural gas demand by region in the New Policies Scenario (bcm) 339 8.2 Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region, end-2016 (tcm) 345 8.3 Natural gas production by region in the New Policies Scenario (bcm) 346 8.4 Natural gas trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 361 Tables for Chapter 10: The environmental case for natural gas 10.1 Major voluntary methane emissions reduction initiatives 420 Tables for Chapter 11: Natural gas in a changing energy world 11.1 Gas demand by region in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 452 Part C: China Energy Outlook Tables for Chapter 12: Energy in China today 12.1 Selected energy and economic indicators for China, 2000-2016 475 12.2 Selected indicators for population, GDP, energy use and trade by region and province in China, 2015 483 Table of Contents 20-XII
12.3 Selected key energy and environment indicators in China s 13th Five-Year Plan 494 12.4 Main state-owned energy-related enterprises in China 502 12.5 Main goals of China s Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy, 2016-2030 504 Tables for Chapter 13: Outlook for China s energy demand 13.1 Primary energy demand by fuel in China in the New Policies Scenario (Mtoe) 511 13.2 China final energy demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario (Mtoe) 513 13.3 Key elements of the Made in China 2025 initiative 514 13.4 Selected industry-related targets in China s 13th Five-Year Plan for 2020 518 13.5 Selected transport sector policies in China and selected cities 525 13.6 Selected policies for buildings in China 534 13.7 Key targets of the 13th Five-Year Plan for the power sector 539 Tables for Chapter 14: Outlook for China s energy supply and investment 14.1 Primary energy production in China in the New Policies Scenario 562 14.2 China coal demand, production and net trade in the New Policies Scenario (Mtce) 568 14.3 China oil demand, production and net trade (mb/d) 576 14.4 Remaining technically recoverable oil resources by type in China, end-2016 (billion barrels) 576 14.5 China natural gas demand, production and trade in the New Policies Scenario (bcm) 590 14.6 Total installed solar PV capacity by province at year-end 2016 599 14.7 Installed wind power capacity by province year-end 2016 601 14.8 Investments in energy supply in China in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-40 (billion $2016) 604 14.9 Investments in low-carbon technologies in China in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 (billion $2016) 605 14.10 Investments in energy efficiency in China in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-40 (billion $2016) 606 Tables for Chapter 15: Global implications of energy policy reforms in China 15.1 Major socio-economic trends in China and in developed countries in the New Policies Scenario 614 15.2 Changes in GDP by driver in China in the Current Policies Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 618 15.3 Performance levels for selected products by sector in China in the Sustainable Development Scenario 621 15.4 China primary energy demand by fuel in the Sustainable Development Scenario (Mtoe) 624 Tables for Annex A: Tables for scenario projections A.1. Fossil-fuel production and demand by region 644 20-XIII World Energy Outlook 2017
A.2. Energy demand, gross electricity generation and electrical capacity, and carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil-fuel combustion by region 648 A.3. Global emissions of pollutants by energy sector and fuel 724 Tables for Annex B: Policies and measures by scenario B.1 Cross-cutting policy assumptions by scenario for selected regions 728 B.2 Power sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario for selected regions 730 B.3 Transport sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario in selected regions 732 B.4 Industry sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario in selected regions 734 B.5 Buildings sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario in selected regions 736 List of boxes Part A: Global Energy Trends Boxes for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 How has the World Energy Outlook evolved since 1977? 35 1.2 A new way to look at the world of energy 42 1.3 How might digitalisation affect the future of energy? 58 Boxes for Chapter 2: Overview 2.1 The US shale revolution in context 70 2.2 Air quality in China 73 2.3 Joining forces: how renewables and energy efficiency can be more than the sum of their parts 80 2.4 Fossil-fuel consumption subsidies: power takes the lead 84 2.5 Powering up off the grid 87 2.6 Does gas still work as a bridge in a world of cheap renewables? 93 2.7 When could electric cars beat conventional cars? 96 2.8 Are energy projects getting smaller? 102 2.9 Is there a chance to join up the offshore dots? 106 Boxes for Chapter 3: Energy, emissions and universal access 3.1 Sustainable Development Goals 109 3.2 The Montreal Protocol and the Kigali Amendment 112 3.3 What s different in a Sustainable Development Scenario? 132 3.4 The Sustainable Development Scenario and the Paris Agreement 134 Boxes for Chapter 4: Outlook for oil 4.1 LPG: fuel for cleaner cooking 162 4.2 A material opportunity to improve global efficiency 172 4.3 Choosing value versus volume 179 4.4 Prospects for Canadian oil sands development in the New Policies Scenario 187 4.5 Oil security in the Sustainable Development Scenario 199 Table of Contents 20-XIV
Boxes for Chapter 5: Outlook for coal 5.1 Coal s number one competitor in India: the sun 222 Boxes for Chapter 6: Power markets and electrification 6.1 Changing policy and market landscape in the United States 242 6.2 Will utility-scale batteries replace peaking power plants? 270 6.3 Offshore wind and bidding zero 275 6.4 The rise of electricity in end-user energy expenditure 279 Boxes for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency and renewable energy 7.1 Motor of change for industrial efficiency 290 7.2 LEDs: what role for electrification? 294 7.3 Relative merits of rooftop solar PV and rooftop solar thermal 303 7.4 Is an advanced biofuels revolution feasible with domestic and sustainable biomass supply? 305 7.5 Reaching carbon neutrality in a brewery 322 7.6 New building energy codes in India 325 Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas Boxes for Chapter 8: Outlook for natural gas 8.1 What happened to the Golden Age of Gas? 337 8.2 How floating technologies can enable gas market development 358 Boxes for Chapter 9: The new gas order 9.1 How the success of US shale may postpone the revolution elsewhere 378 9.2 What s the problem with oil price indexation? 385 9.3 The role of aggregators in LNG trading 390 9.4 How can Asian consumers benefit from the changes in gas markets? 393 Boxes for Chapter 10: The environmental case for natural gas 10.1 Public acceptance of unconventional gas: the Golden Rules 402 10.2 The pitfalls of global warming potentials (GWP) 405 10.3 Methane emissions glossary 408 10.4 Super-emitters: what are they and why are they problematic? 412 10.5 Selected sources of methane emissions and mitigation options 418 10.6 What you can learn from your LDARs 421 Boxes for Chapter 11: Natural gas in a changing energy world 11.1 Historical coal-to-gas switching in the United Kingdom 440 11.2 The role of natural gas in improving air quality 442 11.3 Is CO 2 pricing the answer for gas? 448 11.4 Can natural gas be a zero-carbon fuel? 468 20-XV World Energy Outlook 2017
Part C: China Energy Outlook Boxes for Chapter 12: Energy in China today 12.1 Chinese energy investments abroad 486 12.2 Looking back to the future: the China focus in WEO-2007 492 12.3 China s 13th Five-Year Plan 494 Boxes for Chapter 13: Outlook for China s energy demand 13.1 Why does energy demand growth in China slow? 510 13.2 I bike, you bike, e-bike 529 13.3 Are biomass and coal disappearing from households in China? 536 13.4 Regional hourly models with electricity trade 549 13.5 Improving the flexibility of coal-fired power plants in China 552 Boxes for Chapter 14: Outlook for China s energy supply and investment 14.1 Road to subsidy reform in China 574 14.2 The quest for oil security so far 580 14.3 Domestic small-scale liquefaction in China 596 Boxes for Chapter 15: Global implications of energy policy reforms in China 15.1 Looking ahead to 2050: establishing China s 2050 strategy 626 15.2 An upside for China s shale gas would prolong the pain for the global LNG industry 634 List of spotlights Part A: Global Energy Trends Why doesn t the IEA have a long-term forecast? 40 How can the IEA keep up with global energy demand(s)? 67 Which sub-national initiatives can help deliver the low-carbon transition? 121 India s Clean Energy Ambitions How far from the Sustainable Development Scenario? 141 What would it take for oil prices to stay lower for longer? 158 Can deepwater developments adapt to the new investment climate? 184 The expanding role of smaller players in electricity supply 254 Tapping DSR potential for variable renewables integration 314 Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas What s the price for gas demand to grow? 342 Will Europe become the battlefield of a price war? 384 Lifecycle greenhouse-gas emissions: how do gas and coal compare? 416 Part C: China Energy Outlook A trillion dollar question: what are China s energy consumers spending their money on? 479 Table of Contents 20-XVI