Content News in Brief Sugar Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Cotton Agri-Commodity Heat Chart Technical Trend 29-Nov-2016 As on 28-Nov-2016 Commodity Exchange Contract Trend Commodities Daily Weekly Monthly Yearly Mustard 3.38 2.00 6.69 6.00 Mentha-MCX 2.37 1.81 7.50 7.01 Jeera 2.26 7.60 11.79 28.65 Cardamom- MCX 2.20 9.66 12.19 91.44 Kapas 1.76-0.16 2.38 5.29 Soybean 1.68 2.44-2.59-13.61 Cotton-MCX 1.57-0.10 4.42 17.07 CPO - MCX 1.48 3.38 6.72 40.49 Coriander 1.42 6.86 10.11-20.68 GuarGum 1.29 3.34 1.61-8.91 Guar seed 1.02 2.50-0.53-4.43 Ref Soy Oil 0.98 0.98 5.47 12.29 Maize 0.49 0.21 2.30-10.40 Turmeric -0.41 1.11 3.71-23.26 Sugar -0.70-1.59-2.21 14.38 Spice Complex Jeera NCDEX Dec Up Turmeric NCDEX Dec Up Coriander NCDEX Dec Up Cardamom MCX Dec Sideways Edible Oil Complex Soybean NCDEX Dec Up Mustard Seed NCDEX Dec Up Ref Soy Oil NCDEX Dec Down CPO MCX Nov Up Others Sugar NCDEX Dec Up Kapas NCDEX Apr 17 Sideways Cotton MCX Nov Up Cotton Oilseed Cake NCDEX Dec Down Wheat NCDEX Dec Up MaizeKhrf NCDEX Dec Down Barley NCDEX Dec Sideways Mentha Oil MCX Nov Down Guar Gum5 NCDEX Dec Up Guar Seed 10 NCDEX Dec Up
News in brief Depression alert off TN as N-E monsoon looks set to bounce back Weather models indicate that the North-East monsoon may revive with a bang in the first week of December, the season s last month, with backto-back strikes on the East Coast. Two storms are forecast to approach the coast, with the first already having been initiated as a low-pressure area off Sumatra in the South-East Bay of Bengal and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean. The India Met Department (IMD) has already issued an alert saying that the low would strengthen into a depression over the next two days. It could strengthen further into a deep depression, or even a minimal cyclone, and head for the southern coast of Tamil Nadu with the landfall likely taking place on Friday (December 2). It should continue to move along a westerly path, over the rest of Tamil Nadu and adjoining Karnataka, and step out into the Arabian Sea off Coastal Karnataka by Sunday, according to the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts. (Source: HBL) Rabi sowing: Acreage more than 2015, but sowing pace slows further Rabi crops were sown on 32.76 million hectares till Friday, which was 4.6 per cent more than the same period last year, but the pace of planting slackened further and from November 18 to 25, the acreage rose by just 35.5 per cent. From November 4 to 11, the area covered under rabi crops grew 80 per cent, which fell to 65 per cent in the subsequent week, data by the department of agriculture showed. November is considered the most ideal month for sowing of most rabi crops. In wheat, which is the main crop during the rabi season, the acreage as on November 25 stood at 12.71 million hectares, which is 8.38 per cent more than the same period last year. (Source: BS) Indonesia palm output, exports seen down 10-15 pct in 2016 -industry assoc Indonesia's production and exports of palm oil are expected to decline 10-15 percent this year, Fadhil Hasan, executive director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in Bali on Thursday. Less output from the world's top palm oil producer could further propel prices of the edible oil, which hit a fouryear high on Thursday. Hasan did not say why he expected the declines, nor give details of how much he expected output or export volumes to be. According to GAPKI data released earlier this month, Indonesia produced 35.51 million tonnes of the edible oil in 2015. This would put output this year at 30-32 million tonnes, based on Reuters calculations.. () Export buying enhances small cardamom flavor Small cardamom prices gained last week on export buying at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Arrivals continued to remain negligible. Last week, around 50 per cent of the arrivals were picked up by exporters and the rest was absorbed by domestic dealers, CPMC General Manager PC Punnoose told BusinessLine. According to trade sources in Kerala s Idukki district, trading activities in almost all commodities have experienced a 50 per cent decline following the demonetisation drive and that has been reflecting on all the allied and related activities. Exporters were active and they have bought an estimated 120 tonnes last week. This phenomenon has kept the market firmer despite limited activity. At today s (Monday) auction in Bodinayakannur by the Cardamom Planters Association (CPA), 7.1 tonnes arrived and almost the entire quantity was traded. The auction average was at 1,249.64 a kg. The maximum price stood at 1,401. (Source- HBL) biodiesel production in the United States and Indonesia will further squeeze inventories of palm oil, used in products ranging from candy to cosmetics and cooking oil. () Cotlook ups global cotton output, cuts demand forecasts for 2016/17 - Reuters News Raised its forecast for global cotton production in the 2016/17 crop year as it cut projections for world consumption. Raised its global output forecast by 70,000 tonnes from its previous estimate on higher expectations for crops in the United States and African countries in a monthly forecast. Cotlook lowered the outlook for total demand by 169,000 tonnes amid lower expectations for consumption in Vietnam. Reduced its expectations for the decline in world inventories as a result. World inventories are forecast to decline 1.58 million tonnes by the end of July 2017, versus the prior year. Chana acreage at 6.63 mln ha as of Wed, up 2.7% on year The country's chana acreage in the ongoing rabi season was at 6.63 mln ha as of Wednesday, up 2.7% on year, according to data released by the agriculture ministry. Sowing, however, has been affected over the last couple of weeks following the government's decision to demonetise 500- and 1,000-rupee currency notes. The rise on a year-on-year basis narrowed to 2.7% as of Wednesday, from 25.9% as of Nov 9. Sowing, though, rose marginally during the week ended Wednesday, after the government last week allowed farmers to purchase seeds from central and state government agencies using old 500-rupee notes. This year, total chana acreage in India is also higher on year due to the prevailing high prices of the key rabi pulse, and better soil moisture in major growing regions following a near-normal southwest monsoon. Acreage of the pulse in Madhya Pradesh--the largest grower of chana--was at 2.45 mln ha, up 6.6% from a year ago, the data showed. (Source: Cogencis) SEA sees India vegetable oil imports at 14.9 mln tn in Nov-Oct India may import 14.9 mln tn of vegetable oils in 2016-17 (Nov-Oct), slightly higher than 14.7 mln tn pegged in 2015-16, in order to meet domestic demand, B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors Association of India, said. Imports of palm oil are seen at 9.1 mln tn in 2016-2017, against 8.4 mln tn in the previous year, Mehta said at the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference. Imports of soybean oil are seen falling to 3.8 mln tn from 4.2 mln tn, while those of sunflower oil are estimated to rise to 1.7 mln tn from 1.5 mln tn. Imports of rapeseed oil are seen lower at 300,000 tn.end (Source: Cogencis) China to start auctioning cotton reserves in March 2017 China will start annual sales of cotton from its state reserves in March next year, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country's top economic planner, said on Thursday, confirming plans outlined last month. The sales will commence on March 6, 2017, and will offer 30,000 tonnes of cotton per day, the NDRC said, with auctions continuing until end of August. The volumes could be increased if more than 70 percent of the offered amount is sold during more than three days of one week, it added. Beijing will not purchase cotton for the reserves when the new crop hits the market, which falls between now and end of February, according to a notice published on the NDRC's website. () Lower palm oil output into early next year likely to support prices Lower output of palm oil into early next year and tight supplies of rival soybean oil are likely to bolster prices for the tropical product in the short term after they hit a four-year high this week. Higher mandates for
Sugar Sugar Futures continue to fall Monday due to anticipation of good physical supplies from the sugar mills as the crushing season is in full swing in main sugarcane growing states. Moreover, there is subdued demand in the physical market as stockists are not willing to buy due to cash crunch situation. The most-active December sugar contract closed 0.70% down to settle at 3,404 per quintal. Sugar production in India has increased marginally this season due to early crushing in states like Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka. As per ISMA, Sugar mills have produced 15,000 tonnes more till November 15 this year at 7.87 lakh tonne against 7.72 lakh tonne in the same period last year. As per ISMA s first media release, the carryover stock as on 1 st October is pegged at 77 lt and production is estimated at 234 lt in 2016-17 SS. Therefore, total sugar available in the country during 2016-17 SS would be around 311 lt, against the estimated consumption of 255 lt. During 2016-17 SS, Maharashtra mills delayed their starting so as to get the cane matured further to get better sugar recovery from standing cane. These mills are now started crushing from 5th November, 2016. Similarly, Gujarat mills have also started the crushing. Moreover, government is looking to enhance domestic supplies by reduce import duty if the prices domestic market increase. Central government is exploring the option of lowering the 40% import duty on the sweetener in its raw form. Due to droughts, sugar production in Maharashtra is likely to drop nearly 40% to 5 mt in the 2016/17 season started on Oct. 1 compared with a year earlier. Global Updates Market Highlights - Sugar Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY Sugar Spot /qtl 3599-0.68-0.68-0.73 33.66 Sugar M- NCDEX 3404-0.70-1.59-2.21 14.38 /qtl Dec 16 ICE-Europe Sugar No $/tonne 529.4 0.36-1.65-10.44 30.91 5- Mar 17 ICE-US Sugar No 11- Mar 17 Usc/lbs 19.94 0.50-2.01-11.73 32.27 Chart Sugar M Daily NSMZ6 Cndl, NSMZ6, 28-11-2016, 3,401.00, 3,422.00, 3,385.00, 3,404.00 26-09-2016-30-11-2016 (BOM) 26 Sep 16 3,500 3,404.00 3,400 Sugar Spread Matrix Closing 20-Dec-16 20-Mar-17 20-May-17 Spot 3599.3-195.25-119.25-119.25 20-Dec-16 3404 0 76 76 20-Mar-17 3480-0 0 20-May-17 3480 - - 0 ICE raw sugar futures rose on Monday, on chart based trading by the market participants and anticipation of reduced fund selling. Moreover, strengthening in Brazil's real currency against the dollar on Monday helped to support prices, making international prices less attractive in the world's top producer of sugar. Moreover, speculators reduced their bullish position for the seventh consecutive week in raw sugar contracts to 176,851 contracts in the week ended Nov 22 as per U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. As per, the International Sugar Organization, world sugar production and demand will come back into balance in 2017-18, ending the run of deficits which has left inventories at a "critically low level" in the current season. Industry group Unica said sugar production was 2.05 mt, near the top of a range of forecasts of around 1.9 million to 2.08 million. We expect sugar prices to trade sideways to higher on anticipation of lower level buying and tracking firm international prices. There are reports of easing supplies in the coming months as crushing season is going on in all the sugarcane growing states. Moreover, higher sugar production till Nov 15 has pressurized prices. Government has extended stock limit on sugar for next six months to keep the supply sufficient. Technical Contract Unit Support Resistance Sugar NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl 3360-3380 3420-3440
Soybean Soybean futures continue its uptrend on strong global cues and improved buying support from the domestic oil mills. Moreover, firm international markets due to biofuel usage in US too support domestic spot prices. The most-active Dec 16 delivery contract closed 1.68% higher to settle at Rs. 3,155 per quintal. Recently, SOPA has raised the estimate for 2016-17 (Jul-Jun) soybean output in the country to 115 lt from 109 lt estimated earlier. The spot prices have dropped below the MSP in some places in States of MP, Maha and Gujarat. It is expectation that the peak arrivals will be observed during the month of December. Global update CBOT soybean prices rose to their highest since July on Monday, helped by strong U.S. weekly exports and a weaker dollar. The USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at nearly 1.9 million tonnes, above a range of trade expectations for 1.2 million to 1.5 million tonnes. Moreover, Weakness in the U.S. dollar, too support soybean prices as it make commodities priced in the dollar attractive for importers holding other currencies. We expect Soybean prices to trade sideways to higher tracking international price trend and good crushing demand from the mills. Moreover, low level buying by the market participants is supporting prices. Soybean prices may trade in a tight range during the peak arrival season during Dec. Rape/mustard Seed Mustard seed futures closed higher on Monday due to boost in winter demand and effect on increase in MSP. Moreover, increase in oilseeds too support mustard seed prices. The Dec 16 contract ended 3.38% higher to settle at Rs. 4,802/quintal. As per agriculture ministry data, all-india acreage of mustard in the ongoing rabi season was nearly 58.1 lh as on Nov 24 up 17.8% from a year ago. The sowing operations were not affected much, as sowing is nearing an end, and farmers had already bought the seeds. Till Nov 28, Rajasthan, planted 26.3 lakh ha, up 1% from a year ago similarly acreage increase in Uttar Pradesh, where mustard is sown in 10.6 lh, up 17.1% from a year ago. In MP, the oilseed was sown over 6.13 lh, up 17% sown a year ago. Govt increases mustard MSP by 350 rupees/100 kg to 3,700 rupees for FY16-17 which includes bonus of Rs.100 / quintals. In global market, prices for the rapeseed touched 16-month highs, helped by robust exports and crushing, with vegoil prices soaring world-wide. And global rapeseed supply is tighter this year, thanks to falling yields and smaller planted area. We expect mustard seed to trade sideways to higher on dwindling supplies and pickup in demand in the physical market. Moreover, increase in MSP for mustard crop for 2016/17 season too supporting prices. However, good start to rabi sowing in Rajasthan and Gujarat may pressurize prices later. Technical Levels Contract Unit Support Resistance Soybean NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl 3090-3130 3170-3200 RM Seed NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl 4740-4780 4840-4890 Market Highlights - Oilseeds Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY Soybean Spot- NCDEX /qtl 3131 0.55 2.05 1.89-17.43 Soybean- NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl 3155 1.68 2.44-2.59-13.61 Soybean-CBOT Jan 17 USc/Bsh 1056.0 0.96 3.50 3.02 21.10 RM Seed Spot- NCDEX /qtl 4875 1.07 0.52 4.28 6.77 RM Seed- NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl 4802 3.38 2.00 6.69 6.00 Chart Soybean Daily NSBZ6 Cndl, NSBZ6, 28-11-2016, 3,126.00, 3,162.00, 3,126.00, 3,155.00 Soybean Spread Matrix Closing 20-Dec-16 20-Jan-17 20-Feb-17 Spot 3131 24 89 143 20-Dec-16 3155 0 65 119 20-Jan-17 3220-0 54 20-Feb-17 3274 - - 0 Chart Mustard 28-09-2016-30-11-2016 (BOM) Daily NRSZ6 Cndl, NRSZ6, 28-11-2016, 4,670.00, 4,817.00, 4,666.00, 4,802.00 3,200 3,155.00 3,100 3,000 01-08-2016-02-12-2016 (BOM) 01 08 16 22 29 05 12 19 26 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 5,000 4,802.00 4,800 4,600 4,400 Mustard Seed Spread Matrix Closing 20-Dec-16 20-Jan-17 20-Apr-17 Spot 4875-73 -766-720 20-Dec-16 4802 0-693 -647 20-Jan-17 4109-0 46 20-Apr-17 4155 - - 0 www.angelcommodities.com
Refined Soy Oil Refined soy oil futures continue its uptrend on Monday tracking firm international prices on anticipation of squeezing supplies from the US due to record requirement biofuel use for next year. Moreover, anticipation of further increase in tariff value by government of India for 1 st half of December too supports prices at higher levels. The most active Ref Soy oil Dec 16 expiry contract closed 0.98% higher to settle at Rs. 716.8/10kg. The tariff value of crude soyoil were raised by $13 per tn to $866 which was the fourth increase in two month by the government. Recently, NCDEX has withdrawn additional margin of 2.5% on both long and short side on all running contracts of soy oil. As per SEA data, India October crude soyoil import 277,878 tonnes, lower by 31 % compared to 405,186 tonnes year ago while, India s 2015/16 crude soyoil import 4.23 mt vs 2.99 mt an increase of 41% y/y for the current oil year (Nov-Oct). Soy oil futures may trade lower on anticipation of chart based trading (profit booking). However, firm international prices may support the oilseed complex. Moreover, anticipation of increase in tariff values coupled with firm international prices will continue to support prices at higher levels. Crude Palm Oil (CPO) CPO Futures closed higher on Monday due to firm international markets and good demand from stockists. The most active CPO Nov 16 expiry closed 1.48% higher to settle at Rs. 556.0 per 10 kg. In domestic market, the prices are following the international market as country is depending on the imports. Meanwhile, the tariff value of CPO increase by 2.2% to $739 per tonne for the 2nd half of Nov compared to previous fortnight. This is second straight increase but lower than the September tariff price. As per USDA report, ending stocks of palm oil in India in 2015/17 will dropped 30% to 381,000 tonnes compared to previous month estimates. As per SEA data, imports of RBD palmolein increase to 2.63mt vs 1.66 mt in 2015-16 (Nov-Oct) and India's crude palm oil imports is also lower at 5.75 mt Vs 7.72 mt. Malaysian palm oil rose on Monday for a sixth straight session, helped by tight supplies and price forecasts by leading analysts at an industry conference on Friday. Moreover, Palm output from Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to fall by 10-15% and 9.8%, respectively, this year. Malaysia s palm oil products during November 1 to 25 fell 9.6 per cent to 895,625 tonnes compared with 990,939 tonnes during October 1 to 25. We expect CPO to trade sideways to higher on anticipation of firm international prices coupled with anticipation of stockists demand in the domestic market. It is expected that the tariff value will be increase for the first week of Dec by the government. Market Highlights- Edible oils Ref Soyoil Spot - Mumbai Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Dec 16 Soybean Oil- CBOT- Dec 16 CPO-Bursa Malaysia - Jan 17 CPO- MCX Nov 16 Chart Ref Soy Oil Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY /10 kg 702.5 0.72 4.07 4.46 15.2 /10 kg 716.8 0.98 3.94 5.47 12.3 USc/lb 36.71 0.14 5.98 4.56 29.5 MYR/Tn 3077 1.48 5.41 10.45 44.1 /10 kg 556.0 1.48 3.38 6.72 40.5 Daily NSOZ6 27-09-2016-30-11-2016 (BOM) Cndl, NSOZ6, 28-11-2016, 713.70, 721.20, 713.00, 716.75, 716.75 10B Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix Closing 20-Dec-16 20-Jan-17 20-Feb-17 Spot 702.5 14.25 18.35 17.3 20-Dec-16 716.75 0 4.1 3.0 20-Jan-17 720.85-0 -1.1 20-Feb-17 719.75 - - 0.0 Chart Crude Palm Oil MCX Nov 16 contract Daily MCAX6 23-09-2016-30-11-2016 (BOM) Cndl, MCAX6, 28-11-2016, 551.80, 556.80, 550.30, 556.00, +8.10, (+1.48%) 556.00 10B 540 26 Sep 16 CPO Spread Matrix Closing 30-Nov-16 30-Dec-16 31-Jan-17 30-Nov-16 556 0 0.1-1.1 30-Dec-16 556.1-0 -1.2 31-Jan-17 554.9 - - 0 700 680 660 520 500 480 Technical Contract Unit Support Resistance Ref Soy Oil NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl 708-712 720-725 CPO MCX Nov 16 /qtl 547-552 559-562
Spices Jeera Jeera futures closed higher on Monday due to expectation of tight supplies and fresh export enquiries as sowing season commenced in Gujarat and Rajasthan. NCDEX Dec 16 Jeera closed 2.26% higher to close at Rs 19,195 per quintal. Jeera sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started. In Gujarat, Jeera sowing completed in around 99,100 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 17,400 hectares, as on 21 st Nov. The stock position in NCDEX warehouse is at lower level compared to last year stocks. As on 27-Nov-2016, new Jeera stock position at NCDEX approved warehouses in Jodhpur and Unjha is totaled at 188 tonnes while it was 743 tonnes last week. Last year stocks were about 5,609 tonnes. According Department of commerce data, the exports of Jeera in the first five months (Apr-Aug) of 2016-17 is recorded at 60,907 tonnes, higher by 62% compared to same period last year. The exports of jeera during August 2016 increase 65% m/m to 9,003 tonnes while there is also increase exports y/y by 65.7%. We expect Jeera futures to trade sideways to higher on reports of dwindling supplies at physical markets due to lower arrivals. Moreover, good export enquiries also supported the prices in futures market. However, good start to rabi sowing and sufficient stocks with the stockists may pressurize prices when the cash crunch ease. Turmeric Turmeric futures closed lower on Monday due to profit booking at higher levels. However, fall was limited due to good demand and dwindling supplies in the physical market. Turmeric Dec 16 delivery contract on NCDEX closed 0.41% down to settle at Rs 7,316 per quintal. There are reports of good production from new season crops which may pressurize prices as the harvesting begins in the next month. Currently the supplies are for medium and poor quality during the rest of the season till new crop arrived. On the export front, country exported about 51,147 tonnes of turmeric during April-August period up by 32% compared last year, as per government data. Expectations of increasing production in coming harvesting season and lowering export demand in recent months are putting pressure on turmeric prices at higher levels. Turmeric acreage in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh was higher this year as compared last year. We expect turmeric may trade sideways to higher as heavy rains has been forecasted in the Turmeric growing areas of Tamil Nadu, Andhra and Telengana. Moreover, good demand from the industrial buyers and upcountry traders just also support prices. Good production in coming season may start to pressurizing prices if weather disruption is minimal. Technical Market Highlights - Spices Unit Last Prev WoW MoM YoY Jeera Spot- NCDEX /qt 19129 2.77 4.99 9.51 14.80 Jeera- NCDEX Dec 16 /qt 19195 2.26 7.60 11.79 28.65 Turmeric Spot- NCDEX /qt 7630 0.00 0.51 1.96-22.00 Turmeric- NCDEX Dec 16 /qt 7316-0.41 1.11 3.71-23.26 Technical Chart Jeera Daily NJEZ6 23-09-2016-30-11-2016 (BOM) Cndl, NJEZ6, 28-11-2016, 18,885.00, 19,290.00, 18,765.00, 19,195.00, 19,195.00 18,500 18,000 26 Sep 16 Jeera Spread Matrix Closing 20-Dec-16 20-Jan-17 20-Mar-17 Spot 19129 66-254 -2074 20-Dec-16 19195 0-320 -2140 20-Jan-17 18875-0 -1820 20-Mar-17 17055 - - 0 Chart Turmeric Daily NTMZ6 Cndl, NTMZ6, 28-11-2016, 7,350.00, 7,388.00, 7,212.00, 7,316.00, Turmeric Spread Matrix Closing 20-Dec-16 20-Jan-17 20-Juy-17 Spot 7630-314 -610-552 20-Dec-16 7316 0-296 -238 20-Apr-17 7020-0 58 20-Juy-17 7078 - - 0 17,500 17,000 16,500 03-10-2016-30-11-2016 (BOM) 7,316.00 7,200 7,000 6,800 Unit Support Resistance Jeera NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl 18500-18800 19340-19580 Turmeric NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl 7130-7230 7410-7490
Kapas Cotton complex prices increase on Monday due to increase in demand for new season good quality kapas and ease in arrivals of seed cotton (Kapas) in the physical market. NCDEX Kapas for Apr 17 closed 1.76% higher while MCX Nov 16 cotton closed 1.57% higher. Industry is estimating 355 lakh bales (170 kg each) for the season 2016-17 (Oct-Sep), as against the government s first estimate of 321.2 lakh bales. As per CAB, India's cotton output is seen at 351 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg), up 4% from 338 lakh bales a year ago due to good monsoon and minimum pest infestation. Cotton area is down by 11.6% at 105.6 lh against 116 lh last year. Domestic update For the current season, cotton arrivals in the country are pegged at 32.5 lakh bales (lb) as on 12 November, 2016. In October, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan together account for at 5.82 lb while Gujarat and Maharashtra added 7.3 lb. Madhya Pradesh too seen about 1.82 lb arrivals. In South India, about 3.36 lb arrivals have been recorded. According to USDA, production in India is forecast at 26.5 million bales (5.77 mt), up marginally from 2015/16. A rebound in India s yield is expected to offset a 10-percent reduction in cotton area this season. Global Cotton Updates ICE Cotton futures closed higher on Monday due to encouraging exports demand from the US last week. USDA showed net upland sales of 254,800 running bales (RB) for the week Nov 11-17 were up 19% from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior four-week average for the 2016/17 crop. However, British firm Cotton (Cotlook) last Friday raised its forecast for global cotton production in the 2016/17 crop year as it cut projections for world consumption. As per ICAC, world ending stocks are forecast to decrease further by 7% to 17.8 mt at the end of 2016/17 as China continues to reduce its stocks. Ending stocks in China, where much of the excess stocks are held, decreased by 13% to 11.3 mt as the Chinese government sold over two million tons from its official reserves from May through September 2016. Market Highlights- Cotton Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY NCDEX Kapas Apr 17 20 kgs 925.5 1.76-0.16 2.38 5.29 MCX Cotton Nov 16 /Bale 19370 1.57-0.10 4.42 17.07 ICE Cotton Mar 17 USc/Lbs 72.02 1.08-0.37 2.48 17.57 Cotton ZCE Yuan/t 15790 0.06-2.86 5.16 28.58 Chart Kapas-NCDEX Chart Cotton- MCX NCDEX Apr 17 contract Daily NKKJ7 03-10-2016-30-11-2016 (BOM) Cndl, NKKJ7, 28-11-2016, 904.00, 928.00, 904.00, 925.50, 20B 925.50 930 Daily MCOTX6 Cndl, MCOTX6, 28-11-2016, 18,970.00, 19,400.00, 18,970.00, 19,370.00, +310.00, (+1.63%) MCX Nov 16 contract Cotton Spread Matrix Closing 30-Nov-16 30-Dec-16 31-Jan-17 900 30-Nov-16 19370 0-60 40 30-Dec-16 19310-0 100 31-Jan-17 19410 - - 0 870 28-09-2016-30-11-2016 (BOM) 19,600 19,370.00 19,200 18,800 18,400 We expect cotton prices to trade sideways to higher due to improved demand for new season crop from textile mills and ginners. Moreover, easing cash crunch and acceptance of cheque by the farmers may keep the physical market running smoothly. Market participants may sell at higher levels in cotton and kapas on expectation of good supplies later this month. Technical Contract Unit Support Resistance Kapas NCDEX April 17 /20 kgs 894-910 935-944 Cotton MCX Nov 16 /bale 18800-19100 19600-19900
Prepared By Anuj Gupta Head Technical Research (Commodity & Currency) Anuj.gupta@angelbroking.com (011) 4916 5954 Ritesh Kumar Sahu Research Analyst Agri-Commodities riteshkumar.sahu@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 (Ext 6165) Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com