COTTON REPORT Kai Hughes Executive Director International Cotton Advisory Committee Cotton Production & Trade Trends International Cotton Advisory Committee
WORLD COTTON AREA AND PRICES US cts/lb 18 15 12 9 Area million hectares 4 35 3 6 3 Cotlook A Index (previous season) /1 5/6 1/11 15/16 25 2
PRICE OF COTTON VS. COMPETING CROPS AT PLANTING TIME N. HEMISPHERE (21-217)* ratio 2 16 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 12 8 4 Maize Soybean Rice Sugar Sorghum *World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet)
WORLD COTTON AREA AND YIELD million hectares 4 N. Hemisphere S. Hemisphere Yield kg/ha 9 3 2 1 6 3 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17
kg/ha 85 WORLD AVERAGE YIELD (rainfed + irrigated) 772 7 571 55 4 86/87 91/92 96/97 1/2 6/7 11/12 16/17
95/96 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/2 21/22 WORLD COTTON YIELDS REMAIN STAGNANT SINCE 25/6 kg/ha 9 8 7 6 5 4
COTTON PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY Australia Turkey 4% 3% Uzbek. 3% Fr. Africa 5% ROW 8% 217/18: 25.6 Million tons India 24% 6 M Brazil 6% Pakistan 8% China 21% India is since 215/16, the world s largest producer of cotton US 18%
CHANGES IN WORLD COTTON PRODUCTION Uzbekistan Turkey Australia Fr. Africa Brazil Pakistan USA China India.8.83.98 1.19 16/17 17/18 1.57 1.95 4.6 5.25 6.3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 million tons
Indonesia Brazil USA Vietnam Bangladesh Turkey Pakistan India WORLD COTTON CONSUMPTION.7.8.7 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.2 15/16 16/17 17/18 5.3 1 2 3 4 5 6 million tons Brazil 3% Indonesia 3% Vietnam 5% Bangladesh 6% Turkey 6% USA 3% Pakistan 9% 217/18: 25.2 Million tons ROW 12% India 21% China 32%
CHINA COTTON CONSUMPTION Million tons 12 Share 5% 1 8 6 4 Consumption Share 4% 3% 2% 2 1% 9/91 95/96 /1 5/6 1/11 15/16 %
WORLD COTTON EXPORTS Uzbekistan Brazil Australia.4.7.8 16/17 17/18 4% India.8 Fr. Africa USA 1. 3.1 The U.S remains the world s largest exporter of cotton 1 2 3 4 million tons
EXPORTS: SHARE OF WORLD TOTAL 5% 4% USA 3% 2% India 1% Fr. Africa Brazil % 9/91 95/96 /1 5/6 1/11 15/16
COTTON IMPORTS BY COUNTRY million tons 2. 1.5 1. 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18.5. Bangladesh Vietnam China Indonesia Turkey
SHARE OF WORLD IMPORTS 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Rest of Asia China % 9/91 95/96 /1 5/6 1/11 15/16
WORLD COTTON PRODUCTION AND MILL USE million tons 29 27 25 23 Production Mill Use 21 19 17 Accumulated Surplus Through 14/15: 13.8 million tons Stock Reduction in 15/16 and 16/17: 4.4 million tons /1 5/6 1/11 15/16
ESTIMATED SIZE OF CHINA NATIONAL RESERVE million tons 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 13. 8.4 6.4 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17
/1 4/5 8/9 12/13 16/17 million tons 25 WORLD ENDING STOCKS 2 15 1 World-less China China 5
Season-average (US cents/lb) 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 COTLOOK A INDEX 83 69 4 74/75 84/85 94/95 4/5 14/15
ASSISTANCE TO COTTON PRODUCTION Direct support to production Border protection Crop insurance subsidies Minimum support price mechanisms Input subsidies Transportation subsidies
ASSISTANCE TO COTTON Billion US$ 12 1 1.7 8 7.4 6.5 7.4 6 4 4.7 4.5 2 97/98 /1 3/4 6/7 9/1 12/13 15/16 1.5
ASSISTANCE TO COTTON AND PRICES Billion US$ 12 1 8 1.65 A Index (US$/lb) 1.8 6 4 2 1..88.91.71.7.83 1.1 97/98 /1 3/4 6/7 9/1 12/13 15/16.4
WORLD COTTON PRODUCTION UNDER ASSISTANCE Million tons Without Assistance With Assistance 4 3 Average with Assistance: 55% 83% 48% 76% 71% 7% 2 1 97/98 /1 3/4 6/7 9/1 12/13 15/16
WORLD TEXTILE FIBRE DEMAND (END-USE)
WORLD CONSUMPTION OF MAJOR TEXTILE FIBRES Million tons 1 8 6 Cotton Wool Non-Cellulosic Cellulosic 4 2
WORLD COTTON CONSUMPTION REMAINS BELOW PEAK Million tons 3 25 2 15 1 5
196 216 225 196 216 225 196 216 225 POPULATION Billions 7.5 8.2 WORLD TEXTILE FIBER CONSUMPTION Million tons 115.7 TEXTILE FIBER CONSUMPTION Kgs per capita 12.1 14.1 9.4 3. 5.1 15.2
WORLD CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA Kilograms 196 216 225 196 216 225 3.4 COTTON CHEMICAL FIBERS 8.7 1.9 3.3 3.2 1.1
196 1965 197 COTTON S MARKET SHARE 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 Million tons Market Share (%) 3 8 7 25 6 2 5 15 4 3 1 2 5 1
196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Million tons 8 6 4 2 TEXTILE FIBRE CONSUMPTION BY REGION END-USE Developed Countries Developing Countries C. and E. Europe & former USSR C. and E. Europe & form Develo ped Countri es 51% C. and E. Europe Develo & ped form Countri es 31% 196 Develo ping Countri es 32% Develo ping Countri es 65% 216
196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 WORLD POPULATION Billions 8 6 4 2 Developed Countries Developing Countries C. and E. Europe & former USSR Change in Population (Billions) Africa Asia M.E & Europe L.A & Caribbean 217 1.3 4..3.6 225 1.5 4.2.4.7 25 2.5 4.6.5.8
WORLD CHEMICAL FIBER YARN PRODUCTION BY FIBRE TYPE Million tons 8 6 Polyester Others 4 2
POLYESTER FIBRE PRODUCTION GROWTH RATES 1997 23 29 215 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5%
GLOBAL POLYESTER PRODUCTION BY FIBRE TYPE Million tons 6 5 4 Filament Staple 3 2 1 8%CAGR Polyester Filament production has nearly tripled since 22.
TOP 5 POLYESTER PRODUCING COUNTRIES Million tons 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 19.3 37.3 27 216 4.8 2.5 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.3
CHINA S SHARE OF GLOBAL CHEMICAL FIBRE YARN PRODUCTION 9% [VA LU E 199 2 [VA LU E 24 % [VA [VA LU LU E 62 E 69 % % 21 216
LEADING PRODUCERS OF CELLULOSIC FIBRE Million tons 4 3 3.5 27 216 2 1.6 1.4.6.4.5.3.3.1.1 China Western Europe India Indonesia Thailand
Growth in global cotton consumption has been limited by competition with polyester, and by consumer s changing attitude and behavior towards less formal fashion styles. (Yoga Pants, leggings, Athleisure wear) Cotton promotion, innovation, application and research must continue in order to change consumers preferences and to improve the technical performance of cotton vis-à-vis polyester. High cotton prices benefit cotton growers. However, high cotton prices have a negative impact in cotton consumption. New concerns regarding plastics and microplastic pollution could have a positive impact on the demand for cotton.
Thank you Any Questions? International Cotton Advisory Committee