THE ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THE ANALYTICAL CENTER FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 216 Prof. Len Grigoriev and Dr. Tatiana Mitrova 15 February, 217
Three scenarios cover wide range of uncertainties 2 Favorable(high economy, low risks, technology and capital transfer) Probable (BAU) Critical (economic slowdown, many local conflicts, increasing economic and technological gap between the countries) Favorable Probable Critical Global population 9, 2 bln. by 24 Global GDP AAGR 3,4% 2,8% 2,1% Geopolitical risks No conflicts Few local conflicts Many local conflicts State energy policies New plans and methods. Partial implementation of the existing plans. Global CO2 quotas Global trade is emerging No global market, but regional trade trade is developing New technologies Scenario Matrix Current plans are not implemented. No development successfully. No technological revolutions. Several technological breakthroughs, but only for the technologies that are being tested currently. Technological transfer Unlimited Limited No transfer, new technologies develop only in OECD and in China
Fossil fuels are still dominating the fuel mix, though it is becoming more diversified: gas and RES are demonstrating the highest growth 3 Primary energy demand by fuel (in 215 and increase by 24), Probable Scenario Structure of primary energy demand by fuel in 215 and in 24, Probable Scenario mtoe 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 24 215 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other RES 3% 6% 25% 11% 2% 1% 1% 5% 28% 24 4% 27% 31% 22% 24% Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other renewables Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
ERIRAS-AC Outlook is among the lowest demand projections 4 Primary energy demand scenarios comparison mtoe 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, RES Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 6, 4, 2, ERIRAS-AC (Probable) 216 ERIRAS-AC (Critical) 216 ERIRAS-AC (Favorable) 216 OPEC 216 BP 217 IEA 216 NP IEA 216 CP EIA DOE 216 Reference case ERIRAS-AC (Probable) 216 ERIRAS-AC (Critical) 216 ERIRAS-AC (Favorable) 216 OPEC 216 IEA 216 NP IEA 216 CP EIA DOE 216 Reference case ExxonMobil 216 214 23 24 Sources: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC, WEO-216, IEO-216, BP, ExxonMobil, OPEC
Increasing electrification and electricity demand in all regions and in all scenarios 5 Electricity demand outlook for three scenarios TW h 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Africa Middle East Non-OECD Asia OECD Asia CIS Europe South and Central America North America 5, 22 225 23 235 24 24 24 21 215 Probable Scenario Critical Scenario Favorable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
Huge regional differences in the electricity generation fuel mix will increase 6 Electricity generation by region and by fuel in 215 and in 24, Probable Scenario TW h 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 215 24 215 24 215 24 215 24 215 24 215 24 215 24 215 24 Non-OECD Asia North America Europe OECD Asia South and Central America Middle East CIS Africa Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro RES Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
In all scenarios global demand for liquids is increasing, driven by non- OECD countries, but the growth is very slow 7 Liquid fuel demand by region for three scenarios m toe 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 CIS Africa OECD Asia Middle East South and Central America Europe North America Non-OECD Asia 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 24 24 Probable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC Critical Scenario Favorable Scenario
Main liquids demand growth in non-oecd will be located not in China, but in India and in the other non-oecd Asia 8 Peak Chinese liquids demand Liquids demand growth in non-oecd Asia m toe 85 6 % 8 5 % 75 4 % 7 3 % 65 6 2 % 55 1 % 5 % 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 224 226 228 23 232 234 236 238 Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario 24 199-215 Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario 199-215 Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario 199-215 Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario China Other non-oecd Asia India Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
International fossil fuel trade is expanding mainly in Asia 9 International fossil fuel trade 215 24 6 3 15-15 -3 215 24 North America -2-4 -6-8 -1 Europe 15 12 9 6 3 215 24 CIS 215 24 3 25 215 24-25 South and Central America 6 45 3 15 215 24 Africa 215 24 Middle East -5-1 -15-2 Asia Pacific Oil Gas Coal Netto-exporting region Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC Netto-importing region
The new conjuncture of the external energy markets does not allow Russia to increase energy exports by more than 1% 1 Total Russian energy export in 1991-24 m toe 8 7 6 Probable Scenario 5 4 3 2 Favorable Scenario Critical Scebario 1 199 2 21 22 23 24 Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
Russian oil output will decline in all scenarios post 22 11 mln tonnes Russian oil output outlook 6 Reserves growth 5 4 3 Greenfields Brownfields 2 Condensate 1 Critical Scenario 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 Favorable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
Russian oil exports are driven by the Asian expansion 12 mln tonnes 3 25 2 Russian oil exports by destination Russian petroleum product exports by destination mln tonnes 3 25 2 15 15 1 1 5 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 24 24 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 24 24 Probable Scenario Crit. Sc. Favor. Sc. Probable Scenario Crit. Sc. Favor. Sc. East West CIS CIS West East Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
13 Global and Russian Energy Outlook 216 http://www.eriras.ru/files/forecast_216.pdf