THE ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THE ANALYTICAL CENTER FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 216 Edited by A.A. Makarov, L.M. Grigoryev, T.A. Mitrova Tokyo, 217 Anna Lobanova Researcher, Analytical Center for the Government of Russian Federation
Scenario Assumptions 2
Three scenarios cover wide range of uncertainties 3 Favorable(high economy, low risks, technology and capital transfer) Probable (BAU) Critical (economic slowdown, many local conflicts, increasing economic and technological gap between the countries) Favorable Probable Critical Global population 9, 2 bln. by 24 Global GDP AAGR 3,4% 2,8% 2,1% Geopolitical risks No conflicts Few local conflicts Many local conflicts State energy policies New plans and methods. Partial implementation of the existing plans. Global CO2 quotas Global trade is emerging No global market, but regional trade trade is developing New technologies Scenario Matrix Current plans are not implemented. No development successfully. No technological revolutions. Several technological breakthroughs, but only for the technologies that are being tested currently. Technological transfer Unlimited Limited No transfer, new technologies develop only in OECD and in China
Global Energy Outlook 4
Global fuel mix is becoming more diversified, gas and RES are demonstrating the highest growth 5 Primary energy demand by fuel (in 215 and increase by 24), Probable Scenario Structure of primary energy demand by fuel in 215 and in 24, Probable Scenario mtoe 5 4 3 2 24 215 3% 6% 11% 24 4% 2% 1% 1% 5% 31% 27% Oil Gas Coal 1 25% 28% 22% 24% Nuclear Hydro Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
Regional primary energy demand is also becoming more diversified 6 Primary energy demand by fuel and by region, Probable Scenario 3 2 1 North 19921524 America 2 2 2 1 19921524 19921524 CIS 2 199 215 24 Middle East 2 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 199 215 24 Developing Asia Other renewables Bioenergy Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 1 19921524 South and Central America 199 215 24 Africa 1 199 215 24 Developed Asia Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
ERIRAS-AC-216 Probable IEA 215 NP IEA 215 CP OPEC 215 ВР 216 EIA DOE 216 Reference ERIRAS-AC-216 Probable IEA 215 NP ВР 216 EIA DOE 216 Reference ERIRAS-AC-216 Probable IEA 215 CP IEA 215 NP OPEC 215 EIA DOE 216 Reference ExxonMobil 216 ERI RAS-AC Outlook is among the lowest demand projections 7 m toe Primary energy demand scenarios comparison 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 RES Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 214 23 235 24 Sources: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC, WEO-215, IEO-216, BP, ExxonMobil, OPEC
In all scenarios global demand for liquids is increasing, driven by non- OECD countries 8 Liquid fuel demand by region for three scenarios m toe 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 CIS Africa OECD Asia Middle East South and Central America North America Non-OECD Asia 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 24 24 Probable Scenario Critical Scenario Favorable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
21 212 214 216 218 22 222 224 226 228 23 232 234 236 238 24 199-215 Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario 199-215 Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario 199-215 Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario Main liquids demand growth in non-oecd will be located not in China, but in India and in the other non-oecd Asia 9 Peak Chinese liquids demand Liquids demand growth in non-oecd Asia m toe 85 8 6 % 5 % 75 7 65 6 55 4 % 3 % 2 % 1 % 5 % Critical Scenario Favorable Scenario Probable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC China Other non-oecd Asia India
Oil price scenarios 1 USD214/bbl 22 225 23 235 24 IEA Current Policies 83 112 13 14 15 IEA New Policies 8 12 113 12 128 IEA 45 Scenario 77 85 97 96 95 IEA Low Oil Price 55 6 7 82 85 OPEC Reference 7 8 85 88 9 EIA Reference 79 91 16 122 141 EIA Low oil price 58 64 69 72 76 EIA High oil price 149 169 194 221 252 RF Ministry of Economic Development (+) 57 63 7 77 RF Ministry of Economic Development (Baseline) 45 45 45 45 Critical Scenario (ERI RAS -AC) 55 75 83 86 9 Probable Scenario (ERI RAS -AC) 6 81 88 94 99 Favorable scenario (ERI RAS -AC) 65 82 9 13 17
Global crude oil trade 11 Crude oil export and import by region, Probable Scenario 4 3-2 2 215 24 North America, except the USA -1 2 215 24-1 -6 2 215 24 12 1 8 6 4 2-1 2 215 24 CIS -1 2 215 24-6 -6 USA -2 2 215 24 Middle East China 2 3-2 2 215 24 South and Central America -2 2 215 24 Africa 2-2 -4 2 215 24 India -3-8 2 215 24 Other Asia except China and India China India Asia Pacific except China and India Middle East CIS USA North America except the USA Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC Africa South and Central America
Global gas trade moving to Asia 12 Pipeline gas and LNG export and import by the main countries, Probable Scenario 4 2 Russia 2 1-1 -2 USA 2 215 24 Non-specified Africa Middle East 1-4 2 215 24 2 215 24 2 215 24-1 -2-2 -1-2 -4 2 215 24 India China 2 215 24 Japan Non-OECD Asia OECD Asia CIS South and Central America Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC 2 1 Australia 2 215 24
Global coal market: demand growth is slowing down, Chinese demand is peaking in 221-224; the market will be driven by China and India 13 mln 8 tonnes Global coal demand outlook by region for three scenarios mln 8 tonnes Global coal production by region for three scenarios 6 6 4 4 2 2 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 24 24 Africa India Oth. developing Asia CIS Probable Scenario Middle East China Developed Asia Crit. Sc. Fav. Sc. Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC 22 225 23 235 24 24 24 21 215 Probable Scenario Crit. Sc. Africa China Oth. developing Asia CIS Middle East India Developed Asia Fav. Sc.
International coal flows move to Asia 14 Global coal trade by region for three scenarios 5 5 25 24 24 24 215 Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc North America -25-5 215Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc.Fav.Sc 24 24 24 25 215 Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc 24 24 24 24 24 24 215 Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc CIS -25-5 215 Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc 24 24 24 China 5 5 25 24 24 24 215 Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc 5 25-25 -5 24 24 24 215 Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc Africa Ближний Восток -25-5 215 Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc 24 24 24 India 5 25 25 24 24 24 215 Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc Other non-oecd Asia South and Central America 24 24 24 215 Prob.Sc. Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc OECD Asia Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
International fossil fuel trade is expanding, first of all in Asia 15 International fossil fuel trade 215 24 6 3 15-15 -3 215 24 North America -2-4 -6-8 -1 15 12 9 6 3 215 24 CIS 215 24 3 25 215 24-25 South and Central America -5 6 215 24 Middle East 45-1 3 15 215 24-15 Africa -2 Oil Gas Coal Asia Pacific Netto-exporting region region Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC Netto-importing
CO 2 emissions are not peaking in all scenarios driven by non-oecd Asia 16 CO2 emission dynamics by region mln tonnes 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Africa Middle East Non-OECD Asia OECD Asia CIS South and Central America North America 213 22 225 23 235 24 24 24 Probable Scenario Critical Scenario Favorable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
Russian Energy Outlook 17
Conjuncture of the external energy markets does not allow to increase energy exports by more than 1% 18 Total Russian energy export in 1991-24 m toe 8 7 6 Probable Scenario 5 4 3 2 Favorable Scenario Critical Scebario 1 199 2 21 22 23 24 Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
Russian energy export structure will change with the declining role of oil and oil products 19 m toe 8 Russian energy export by product 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Coal and electricity Petroleum products Oil LNG Pipeline gas 22 225 23 235 24 24 24 25 21 215 Probable Scenario Critical Favorable Scenario Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
All additional energy export potential is related to Asia and requires new infrastructure development 2 m toe 8 7 Russian energy export by destination 6 5 4 Asia 3 2 CIS 1 22 225 23 235 24 24 24 25 21 215 Probable Scenario Critical Scenario Favorable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
Russian oil exports are driven by the Asian expansion 21 mln tonnes 3 25 2 15 1 Russian oil exports by destination Russian petroleum product exports by destination mln tonnes 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 5 4 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 24 24 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 24 24 Probable Scenario Crit. Sc. Favor. Sc Probable Scenario Crit. Sc. Favor. Sc East West CIS CIS West East Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC
Thank you for your attention! 22