UEF JOENSUU KUOPIO SAVONLINNA Barents Forest Forum, 17 September 2015, Joensuu Intensification and sustainability of forestry in the growing bioeconomy Jyrki Kangas, Professor (Forest bioeconomy), University of Eastern Finland
Scheme of the presentation: Forest-and-wood-based bioeconomy is growing rapidly in Finland Demand for forests and wood for multiple purposes will increase a lot Growth of Finnish bioeconomy cannot be sustainable without sustainable use of forests How about increasing harvests in Finland, sustainably? If we ll increase the harvests significantly, more efficient wood production is needed in order to secure the sustainability of forestry and to maintain ecosystem services Esityksen nimi / Tekijä 16.9.2015 2
Bioeconomy, what is it? Bio-economy is said to be the next wave of economy. It is about producing, processing, consuming and recycling renewable natural resources, and services based on them. Bio-economy promotes systemic change from using non-renewable resources to renewables. It uses clean technologies, makes us less dependent on fossil fuels, maintains ecosystem services, promotes economic development and creates new jobs. Bio-economy is also a tool of central importance in combating climate change, increasing competition for natural resources and regional development. The most important natural resource in Finland is the forest, and trees of forests 16.9.2015 3
Bioeconomy: The next wave of economy; renaissance of the natural resource economy (saving the mankind) GDP and wellbeing Natural resource economy Fossil economy 1900 2014 SOURCE: Biotalous.fi
Finland in the forefront of sustainable bioeconomy Current bioeconomy in Finland: Total output more than EUR 64 billion, share from exports about 26 % More than 300.000 employed persons More than 50 % of the Finnish bioeconomy is based on forests and trees Bioeconomy is in the core of the sustainable development of Finland (e.g. the political programme of the new government) Aims of Finland s National Bioeconomy Strategy, in 2025: total output EUR 100 billion, 100.000 new employed persons New boost for the weakened economic development in Finland The growth of Finnish bioeconomy is based mainly on forests and trees 16.9.2015 5
Bioeconomy output (16.1% of the national economy total) and people employed (12.7%) in Finland in 2011 Output mill EUR Employed Agriculture 4822 90100 Food industry 11271 38300 Forestry 4232 25000 Wood products industry 6870 36400 Pulp and paper industry 13653 23300 Construction 9228 58120 Chemical industry 1644 1600 Pharmaceutical industry 1339 4100 Renewable energy 4033 5801 Water treatment and distribution 610 2700 Nature tourism 2737 32000 Hunting 85 100 Fishing 171 1800 Total 60695 319321 Total bioeconomy exports 14248 mill EUR (= 26.3% of all exports), of which Wood products industry + Pulp and paper industry 11262 mill EUR Source: The Finnish Bioeconomy Strategy
Forest industry in the core of Finnish bioeconomy: Finland s most important export products Paper and Sawn timber 1,5 bn paperboard 1. 4. euros 6,8 bn euros 5. Pulp 1,4 bn euros 2. Dieselfuel 5.8 bn euros 3. Stainless steel plates 2,1 bn euros 6. Generators and engines 1,4 bn euros Photo ABB 7. Special machinery and equipment 1,2 bn euros Photo: Planmeca 8. Motor vehicles and passenger cars 1,1 bn euros Photo: Valmet Automotive 9. Transformers and frequency converters 1,0 bn euros 10. Cranes and loaders 0,9 bn euros SOURCE: Finnish Customs 13.4.2015 Source: Finnish Customs, Finnish Forest Industries Federation 7
Value of forest industry export and share of total exports 14 Billion Euros Furniture industry Wood Products Pulp & Paper Industry share of total exports 30% 12 25% 10 8 6 4 20% 15% 10% 2 5% 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0% SOURCE: Finnish Customs, Finnish Forest Industries Federation
Value of forest industry exports 14 Bill. EUR 12 10 8 6 4 2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 SOURCE: Finnish Customs, Finnish Forest Industries Federation
Forest-and-wood-based bioeconomy in Finland grows rapidly right now New investments on sawmilling and other wood-working industries An investment decision on a huge bioproduct mill by Metsä Group (Äänekoski) Forest industry s biggest investment ever in Finland An investment plan of a similar (or even a bit bigger) size by Finnpulp Oy (Kuopio), a plan of a smaller bioproduct factory in Kemijärvi, talks about others More wood in construction, packaging, biofuels from wood biomass, plenty of new bioproducts Growth sought for also from nature tourism and other forest products such as berries and mushrooms, etc.
An example, and a proof: Metsä Fibre s bioproduct mill Investment decision April 21, 2015; EUR 1.2 billion Replaces the current pulp mill in Äänekoski; will start Q3/2017 Annual pulp production 1.3 million tonnes (currently 0.5) Use of wood 6.5 million m³ annually (currently 2.4) About 2,500 direct jobs in the whole value chain in Finland (currently 1,000) Main markets for the softwood pulp: Europe and Asia, demand increases especially in China Increases the value of Finnish exports by EUR 0.5 billion annually Supports Finland in reaching its 2020-goal for renewable energy: the mill will increase the share of renewable energy in Finland by over 2 percentage units
Source: Metsä Fibre
Bioeconomy in Finland, and its growth, cannot be sustainable without sustainable forestry Growth of bioeconomy (in Finland) is dependent on forests and wood Growth of bioeconomy means increasing demand on different uses of forests and on wood biomass If the planned bioproduct mill investments come true, the use of pulpwood increases even more than 15 mill m3/a => means increasing harvests (m3, ha) At the same time, other services and uses of forests are increasingly required (nature tourism, biodiversity, etc.), and conflicts may arise The acceptability of forestry and commensuration of different uses and objectives of forests are even more important in the future; participatory approaches, multiobjective planning etc. are needed to manage this challenge Esityksen nimi / Tekijä 16.9.2015 13
On grounds of forest statistics: use of wood is sustainable 120 Annual increment Total drain Industrial roundwood Mill. m 3 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960 62 64 66 68 1970 72 74 76 78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 SOURCE: FFIF, Luke
Wood stock increases all the time; carbon sink 2 500 2 000 Mill. m 3 Broadleaved Spruce Pine 1 500 1 000 500 0 1921-24 36-38 1944 51-53 60-63 64-70 71-76 77-84 86-94 96-2003 2009-14 SOURCE: FFIF, Luke
Annual growth > allowable cut > use of wood 120 100 80 milj. m 3 Annual growth Annual allowable cut 120 100 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 2010 12 14 16 18 2020 22 24 0 SOURCE: FFIF, Luke
Increasing cuttings sustainably? On grounds of the statistics: for sure, we can increase cuttings sustainably from the viewpoint of wood production However, sustainability can be defined in various ways; there are no correct weights of different dimensions of sustainability (economic, ecological, sociocultural); different interests => different weights E.g., nature conservation organisations argue that increasing cuttings in Finland would not be sustainable In the long run, total drain (including dying trees) will approach the total growth in any case; if we do not cut the trees they ll die and decay away Ecological sustainability: biodiversity loss and global warming => using renewables instead of fossil resources, storing carbon in wood products Social and economic viewpoints: domestic wood instead of imports 17
A silver bullet: more efficient wood production Increasing wood biomass supply will mean an increase in the total area of cuttings if wood production per hectare remains the same as it is now A silver bullet in the long term: let s increase the growth of forests (m3/ha) and, correspondingly, the sustainable allowable cut => more wood per each hectare harvested and per each contract of sale e.g. increase of the growth 105 => 125 mill.m3/a with the average supply ratio of 70% would mean 14 mill.m3/a more supply and with the same area cut (with more m3/ha in harvests) => similar impacts on sceneries, biodiversity, recreation etc. and with the same amount of contracts of selling/buying wood How to still increase wood production sustainably? How to get wood supply meet the increasing demand? To be answered by other presentations
At the same time also the demand for other uses of forests and trees increase Forest bio-economy consists also of a wide range of products and services: game and hunting, recreation and nature tourism, berries and mushrooms, reindeer husbandry, consultation services, all ecosystem services For nature tourism, the most valuable tree is a standing tree Most forest owners have multiple objectives for their forests Increasing the total area of cuttings would mean increasing impacts on scenery, biodiversity, tourism, and other ecosystem services but, again, this can be alleviated by the more efficient wood production Environmental impacts of cuttings are more due to the area cut than the cubic meters cut
More euros and more other utility at the same time: pushing the production possibities boundary Simultaneously: more wood and more other commodities and services; and securing both economic, ecological and social sustainability In the world of growing forest bioeconomy with increasing harvests this may be made possible by the intensification of forestry
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