THE FUTURE OF COAL: EXISTING POWER STATIONS CONSIDERATIONS FOR NEW STATIONS Brett Cohen sti!s Power Sector Workshop 5 March 2013
EXISTING POWER STATION FLEET Power station Net maximum Nominal capacity capacity (MW) (MW) Arnot 2,232 2,352 Camden 1,450 1,530 Duvha 3,450 3,600 Grootvlei 380 (1,090) 400 (1,150) Hendrina 1,865 1,965 Kendal 3,840 4,116 Komati 170 (878) 182 (940) Kriel 2,850 3,000 Lethabo 3,558 3,708 Majuba 3,843 4,110 Matimba 3,690 3,990 Matla 3,450 3,600 Tutuka 3,510 3,654 Medupi 0 (4,332) 0 (4,618) Kusile 0 (4,338) 0 (4,680)
POWER STATION COAL REQUIREMENTS Power station CV Range Arnot Camden Tutuka (on the border) 22 24 MJ/kg Kriel Duvha Grootvlei Hendrina Komati 20 22 MJ/kg Majuba Matla Kendal Matimba Medupi 18 20 MJ/kg Kusile Lethabo 16 18 MJ/kg
LATE DECOMMISSIONING 23,283 MW BY 2040 3000 2000 1000 12,965 MW: Arnot Hendrina Kriel Lethabo Matimba Tutuka 0-1000 MW -2000-3000 -4000-5000 6,868 MW: Camden Komati Grootvlei Matla 3,450 MW: Duvha -6000 Arnot Camden Duvha Grootvlei Hendrina Kendal Komati Kriel Lethabo Majuba Matimba Matla Tutuka Medupi Kusile
MID-DECOMMISSIONING 28,023 MW BY 2040 3000 2000 1000 4,097 MW: Arnot Hendrina 13,068 MW: Kriel Lethabo Matimba Tutuka 0-1000 MW -2000-3000 -4000-5000 6,868 MW: Camden Komati Grootvlei Matla 3,450 MW: Duvha -6000 Arnot Camden Duvha Grootvlei Hendrina Kendal Komati Kriel Lethabo Majuba Matimba Matla Tutuka Medupi Kusile
EARLY DECOMMISSIONING 32,028 MW BY 2040 3000 2000 1000 4,097 MW: Arnot Hendrina 17,448 MW: Kendal Kriel Lethabo Matimba Tutuka 0 MW -1000-2000 -3000-4000 -5000-6000 6,868 MW: Camden Komati Grootvlei Matla 3,450 MW: Duvha Arnot Camden Duvha Grootvlei Hendrina Kendal Komati Kriel Lethabo Majuba Matimba Matla Tutuka Medupi Kusile
SUMMARY: LIFE OF COAL FIRED POWER STATIONS! " Decommissioned under IRP: Camden, Komati, Grootvlei, Matla and Duvha! " Partly or fully decommissioned between 2030 and 2040 : Hendrina, Arnot, Tutuka, Lethabo, Kriel, Matimba and Kendal! " Still fully operational in 2040: Majuba, Medupi and Kusile
COAL FOR EXISTING POWER STATIONS! " Power stations historically supplied via longterm contracts! " Mines nearing end of lives new coal needs to be sourced, to extend power station lives! " Eskom estimates: 2,000 Mt total coal required from new mines now to 2050 300 to 800 Mt threatened by exports: " Supply in 22-24 MJ/kg band (Arnot, Camden and Tutuka) competes with exports (RB3 grade) 80 Mt/a required from new mines
COAL FOR EXISTING POWER STATIONS! " Sufficient coal in the Central Basin to 2040 Some big blocks earmarked for export could swing availability for Eskom in Central Basin! " Alternative to build rail line to obtain coal from Waterberg Allow for continued exports! " Potential challenges post 2040 for remaining power stations! " Mine investment remains a big problem Lack of investment appetite from large mining houses! " Other options for coal supply: Discards Re-mining pillars
OPTIONS FOR NEW COAL POWER STATIONS?! " Waterberg: New PF stations FBC! " Challenges: Low grade/yields " Costly to wash " Difficult to mine Dual product mines suggested to be more profitable " Requires rail infrastructure for exports Water availability
OPTIONS FOR NEW COAL POWER STATIONS?! Fluidised bed combustion of discards/fines in Central Basin Large volumes of limestone sorbent Transport and CO 2 impacts! " One new 6-pack in Central Basin?! " Location at the coast: Closer to CCS injection sites Rail coal instead of transporting water and CO 2
TECHNOLOGY CHOICE! " Ultra-supercritical plants Significant efficiency gains (~47%)! " UCG! " IGCC Reduced CO 2 /kwh Could unlock some seams not suitable for mining Not before mid-2020s Efficiencies > 50% TWh 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 Coal-fired CHP plants Coal plants fi ed with CCS Advanced coal plants* Supercri cal plants Subcri cal plants 2 000 0 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: WEO 2011 *Advanced coal plants include ultra-supercritical and IGCC plants.
COAL AND CCS: CHALLENGES! " Availability of capture sites! " Cost implications! " Legal/regulatory/risk! " High water penalties! " Possible retrofit only on Medupi and Kusile! " 85% carbon is sequestered! " Net thermal efficiency penalty ~ 9.6% Results in significant additional coal requirements and infrastructure build
SUMMARY! " Existing power stations run to 2030, thereafter rapid decommissioning Coal supply remains a challenge particularly 22-24 MJ/kg Need investment in new mines if existing power stations continue to operate! " New coal fired power station options: Waterberg, Central Basin Technology choices post 2030 " Potential for greater efficiency and reduced CO2! " CCS comes with major challenges
THANK YOU www.tgh.co.za brett@tgh.co.za Tel: +27 (0) 21 671 2161 Fax: 086 638 3692 Ubunye House, 70 Rosmead Ave, Kenilworth, 7708, South Africa