Top Sectors, TKI s and targets Solar energy innovation in Dutch practice and global perspective

Top Sectors, TKI s and targets Solar energy innovation in Dutch practice and global perspective Wim Sinke ECN Solar Energy, TKI Solar Energy, University of Amsterdam, FOM-Institute AMOLF and European Photovoltaic Technology Platform Bijeenkomst Vereniging voor Zonnekrachtcentrales UvA, Science Park Amsterdam Solstice 2013 www.ecn.nl

Contents New Dutch innovation policy about Top Sectors, TKI s and Innovation Contracts Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy a brief history of development targets and numbers structure and status Photovoltaics science, technology and applications at a glance from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains its role for NL PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed? 2

Contents New Dutch innovation policy about Top Sectors, TKI s and Innovation Contracts Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy a brief history of development targets and numbers structure and status Photovoltaics science, technology and applications at a glance from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains its role for NL PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed? 3

Essentials of new innovation policy Focus on a limited number of economic sectors ( Top Sectors ) Use (shrinking) public funds more efficiently and effectively Put private sector (SME s + large companies) in the driver s seat For each Top Sector: Organise innovation through golden triangle (private sector, knowledge sector, government), or rather platinum quadrangle ( + NGO s) Appoint Top Team: 1 SME representative, 1 knowledge sector representative, 1 government representative, 1 boegbeeld ( sector face ) Appoint Steering Group Develop roadmap + implementation plan per subsector (= Innovation Contract) Establish (one or more per subsector) Top Consortium Knowledge & Innovation (TKI) as vehicle for execution of Innovation Contract 4

9 Top Sectors as focus for economic development & innovation High Tech Systems & Materials Agro-Food Water Energy Horticulture & Starting Materials Chemicals Creative Industries Logistics Life-sciences (Head Offices) 5

Contents New Dutch innovation policy about Top Sectors, TKI s and Innovation Contracts Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy a brief history of development targets and numbers structure and status Photovoltaics science, technology and applications at a glance from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains its role for NL PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed? 6

Meet the Top Team Energy 7

Subsectors Energy (TKI s) Solar Energy Energy Efficiency in the Built Environment Offshore Wind Energy Bio-energy Smart Grids Energy Efficiency in the Industry Gas TKI Solar Energy TKI EnerGO TKI Wind op Zee TKI Biobased Economy TKI Switch2SmartGrids TKI ISPT TKI Gas 8

A brief history of events September 2011 : December 2011: February 2012: March 2012: April 2012: invitation to develop Innovation Contracts (IC s) submission vs1; review by Top Team & Steering Group submission vs2; review by Top Team & Steering Committee budget allocation submission of Action Plan 2012 (reduced budget) Minister Verhagen formally signs contracts April Dec 2012: establish TKI s / from plans to projects 9

Innovation Contract Solar Energy (2012) Targets: creation of jobs (from 2000 in 2010 to 10,000 in 2020) generation of sustainable energy (from 100 MWp to 4 GWp in 2020 and >20 GWp in 2030 and beyond) Features: Letters of Commitment & Intent 100 M over 5 yrs private/public contributions 45%/55% (required >40%/60%) 10

Innovation Contract Solar Energy 11

Contents New Dutch innovation policy about Top Sectors, TKI s and Innovation Contracts Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy a brief history of development targets and numbers structure and status Photovoltaics science, technology and applications at a glance from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains its role for NL PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed? 13

Cell & module technologies Commercial Flat plate: wafer-based silicon (>85%) - monocrystalline - multicrystalline & quasi mono Module efficiencies 14 21% City of the Sun (NL) Toyota Würth Solar Helianthos First Solar Flat plate: thin films (<15%) - cadmium telluride (CdTe) - copper-indium/gallium-diselenide/sulphide (CIGSS) - silicon Module efficiencies 7 14% FhG-ISE Abengoa/Concentrix Concentrator (<1%) - multi-junction III-V semiconductors - silicon Module efficiencies 25 30% 14

Concepts & technologies Lab and pilot production super-high-efficiency concepts (nanotechnology at km 2 area) full use of all light colors advanced light management & concentration super-low-cost concepts (& technologies for new applications) very fast and non-vacuum processing low-cost materials & low material use Example: spectrum conversion using quantum dots (Univ. of Amsterdam) Example: polymer solar cell (Solliance) 15

www.nrel.gov/ncpv/images/efficiency_chart.jpg

Commercial module efficiencies (selection) History + short-term projections (announced) wafer Si IBC wafer Si IBC wafer Si IBC wafer Si HIT wafer Si mono CdTe wafer Si multi CIGS tf a/µcsi M.J. de Wild-Scholten SmartGreenScans tf asi

Commercial module efficiencies History + long-term projections (simplified estimates)

Building blocks: system approaches milliwatts to gigawatts grid-connected, stand-alone integrated, add-on, ground-based / buildings, infrastructure, field electricity only, multifunctional (incl. PV-T) fixed orientation, sun tracking and more Sharp Corp. Mun. Heerhugowaard Enel Phoenix Solar 19

Historic market growth - global Annual installations and cumulative capacity (MWp) 100 GWp (0.1 TWp) Source: EPIA (2013) Data 2012 preliminary

Contributions of renewables to electricity consumption in Germany EU total: 2,5% Bron: Fraunhofer ISE (2013) 21

Great expectations Possible contributions PV (Germany) 15-30% PV 22

Grid integration Germany explores (and shifts) the frontiers M. Lippert, SAFT Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2013) 23

Grid integration Effect on peak electricity prices Gaëtan Masson EPIA, @ EU PVTP GA 2012 24

Installed capacity NL: what did we achieve so far? Correction: end 2011 145 MWp End 2012: 340 MWp (polderpv.nl)

Towards impact: the first step National Action Plan: 4 GW in 2020 Action Plan: 4 GW in 2020 2,5-3% of NL electricity consumption EU-average 2012: 2,5% Germany 2012: 5,7% (2020: 9-12%?) Realistic range NL 2020: 4-8 GW 5-6% of electricity consumption = 1% of energy end-use = half of increase of target 14% 16% Technical potential NL: >100 GW (>300 PJ e )

PV rooftop system prices Germany (10-100 kwp) x ⅓ Source: FhG ISE (2012)

Price-experience curve PV modules Effects of volume and innovation Fraunhofer ISE (2013) 28

Price-experience curve PV modules Effects of volume and innovation 2020 Fraunhofer ISE (2013) 29

Breyer et al. @EUPVSEC 2011 Great expectations Global market potential 2020

Towards impact: 20 GW in 2030 (re: EU PV GRID project) Produced electricity: 15 18 TWh (using A ánd B locations) Electricity consumption 2012: 120 TWh Electricity consumption 2030: 150 TWh? 20 GW PV contributes 10 12% to total consumption (if overall losses can be kept small)

20 GW: what does it imply? @ 10 40% module efficiency: 50 200 km 2 net area (up to 500 km 2 gross area) 2 8 million family house roof equivalents high efficiency is key for large-scale use Integration: 1. electrical: grid (>100% penetration) 2. societal: you cannot hide 20 GW of PV 3. physical: buildings, infrastructure and landscape

Public support: the horror case PV shoved down the throat Oh my God, please help our country and send us a terrific and destructive hailstorm! Courtesy Michael Marčák 33

Opportunities missed (or: threat?) PV as technology only 34

The opportunity (or: necessity?) PV as technology ánd design RidderSolar ECN s Black Beauty 35

Beyond design and yield PV as statement Columbuskwartier, Almere Utrecht CS Zadar Coast, Croatia Kaohsiung, Taiwan Green Pix; Beijing, China 36

Total quality (assurance) Necessity for GW-scale use Components, systems, installers, production processes, etc. Broad lack of understanding; many urban legends (Desperate) need for coordination, information and communication? High priority in R&D and industry 37

Sustainability Materials 2011 38

Sustainability Materials introduction of new materials driven by (potential) scarcity or price risks, e.g.: silver copper or indium zinc-tin x7 in 7 years 39

Contents New Dutch innovation policy about Top Sectors, TKI s and Innovation Contracts Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy a brief history of development targets and numbers structure and status Photovoltaics science, technology and applications at a glance from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains its role for NL PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed? 40

IEA Solar Energy Perspectives Scenario Testing the Limits total energy 41

IEA Solar Energy Perspectives Mainstreaming of solar electricity 42

Shell Lens Scenarios - 03 2013 www.shell.com/ global/future-energy/ scenarios.html 43

Shell Lens Scenarios 44

Shell Lens Scenarios (Oceans) 45

The future at a glance Current 2020 Long-term potential Commercial module efficiency flat plate/concentrator (%) 6 21 / 25 30 10 25 / 30 35 20 40+ Turn-key system price (flat plate) ( /Wp) 1 4 0.8 3 0.6 1.5 Cost of electricity (LCoE, /kwh) 0.05 0.40 0.04 0.30 0.03 0.15 Energy pay-back time (yrs) 0.5 2 0.25 1 0.25 0.5 Installed capacity (TWp) 0.1 0.5 1 10-50 46

The future at a glance Current 2020 Long-term potential Commercial module efficiency (%) 5 20 / 25 30 (Si: 12 20) 10 25 / 30 35 (Si: 16 24) 20 40+ (Si: 20 30+) Turn-key system price (flat plate) ( /Wp) 1.2 5 0.8 3 0.6 1.5 Cost of electricity (LCoE, /kwh) 0.06 0.50 0.04 0.30 0.03 0.15 Energy pay-back time (yrs) 0.5 2 0.25 1 0.25 0.5 Installed capacity (TWp) 0.1 0.5 1 10-50 x 2 3 x ½ ⅓ x 100+ 47

48 City of the Sun, Municipality of Heerhugowaard, NL