Forests, Development, and Climate Change Is There Room for Win-Win Situations? Professor Markku Kanninen Viikki Tropical Resources Institute (VITRI), University of Helsinki 1
Outline Trends in forests Role of forests in mitigation and adaptation REDD+ Adaptation Concluding remarks
Trends in forests During the last 40 years Deforestation: 500 M Ha Consumption of forest products: 50% increase During the next 40 years Deforestation: 400 M Ha Over 100 million hectares of new agricultural land Biofuel expansion, mining, urbanization etc. Consumption of forest products: 50% increase 40-50% of industrial wood from plantations Importance of forest ecosystem services increases Carbon, water, etc. Climate change adaptation and mitigation
Forests and climate change: Mitigation and adaptation Climate change and Climate variability Impacts Mitigation Adaptation maintaining and increasing ecosystem C pools and C sequestration reducing emissions from biosphere Responses maintaining and increasing ecosystem resilience reducing vulnerability
Urgency of action (overshoot, adapt, and recover) Parry et al. 2009
Forest loss and climate emissions Some 15-18% of global carbon emissions are from forest loss and land-use change mainly in the tropics More carbon to the atmosphere than comes from the fossil fuel-intensive global transport sector In many developing countries, emissions from land-use change account for 60-90% of total national emissions
How can forests mitigate CC? Increasing carbon stocks Creating plantations Policy Developing agroforestry Years Benefit Baseline Avoiding losses of carbon stocks Forest Reducing deforestation and degradation Applying other REDD+ activities With conservation Benefit Baseline Years Producing biomaterials and bioenergy Energy
Eligible REDD+ Actions policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (UNFCCC Decision 2/CP.13 11). Reduced emissions from: Deforestation Forest degradation And the role of Conservation Sustainable management of forests Enhancement of forest carbon stocks
Scope of REDD+ Forest carbon (C) = Forest Area (ha) * Carbon Density (C/ha) Changes in Forest area (hectares) Carbon density (carbon per hectare) Reduce negative change Avoided deforestation (RED) Avoided degradation (REDD) Enhance positive change Afforestation & reforestation (A/R) Enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+)
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Net Change in Forest Area (ha/year) 2005-2010 Source: FAO 2010
Forest transition Forest cover Triggers: access by road Reinforcing loops: demand, capital accumulation, population Stabilizing loops: forest scarcity, rural development Undisturbed forests Forest frontiers Forest/agric. mosaics Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics Time Mather 1992 Mather 2007
Forest transition: France and Costa Rica France (0-2000) Costa Rica (1930-2000)
Forest transition Forest cover PNG/DR Congo Indonesia/Brazil India China/Costa Rica Undisturbed forests Forest frontiers Forest/agric. mosaics Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics Time Kanninen et al. (2007)
Scenario: forest sector mitigation by 2030 Mitigation potential IPCC (2007): 1-3 Gt CO2 eq. year-1 Isenberg & Potvin (2010): 1.5-1.8 Gt CO2 eq. year-1 Mitigation cost 10-20 billion USD year -1 Comparison Value of global carbon markets in 2008: 126 billion USD year -1 Annual financial flows (ODA & investments) to forestry sector in developing countries: 12-24 billion USD year -1 Forest sector ODA 0.5-1.5 billion USD year -1 (about 1% of the total ODA)
Forest cover and percentage of trees on farms Importance of forests Ecosystem services Drivers of change - global outcomes Global changes local realities Forest transition Climate change agenda and forests Source data: FAO, ICRAF
Forests and poverty Data from Sunderlin et al. 2008
Two-track approach to REDD+ TRANSFORMATIONAL REFORMS SPECIFIC POLICIES Tenure reform Governance Decentralization may or may not in itself lead to REDD+ but positive effects on equity and poverty reduction, which is necessary for the longterm success of REDD+ efforts Payments for Ecosystem Services Community-based NRM Agricultural policies Energy policies Land use restrictions Sustainable forest management Sectorial, simpler (Angelsen et al., 2009)
Enabling REDD+ through broad policy reforms Tenure and rights - critical Essential for long-term success of REDD+ Some no regret REDD policies available Corruption Puts a severe limit, in some cases very difficult to address (systemic institutional changes needed) Monitoring (MRV) of both carbon and financial flows can reduce risks Decentralization & Community-based forest management Enhancing effective, efficient, and equitable outcomes Research on success [and failure] factors
Governance gap Data: World Bank s six Governance Indicators in the REDD Readiness countries of the FCPF (n= 37) and in all the countries (n = 212) Source data: Kaufmann et al. (2009). Kanninen et al. 2010
Can carbon REDD+ improve livelihoods? Concerns: Weakening of land and resource rights of indigenous and forest dependent communities Equity in opportunities to participate as sellers of carbon sequestration services in payment levels and terms vulnerable communities may be subject to exploitative contracts Local economy impacts which affect non-participants Focus on one ES (carbon sequestration) what about cobenefits (other ES s) Mobilizing research on success [and failure]
Can carbon PES improve livelihoods? Research findings: PES schemes have not led to weakening of land tenure, and in some cases have strengthened it Direct evidence from existing research on the impact on livelihoods is still limited Even with initial constraints of access for poor, subsequent corrections have occurred (e.g. Costa Rica) Despite seemingly low payment levels, PES is popular with farmers (Costa Rica, Mexico) Little evidence of local economy impact on prices and employment
PES and poverty alleviation To enhance livelihood/equity outcomes: no-harm approach Narrow focus on environmental goals Undesired livelihood/equity side-effects are mitigated (e.g. collective contracting -provision in Costa Rica PES system) pro-poor approach Poverty reduction objectives are explicit side-objectives (e.g. in areas where rural poverty is widespread) Participation of the poor is actively pursued
Why might REDD+ succeed? Volume of finance sufficient (?) to shift the political economy of drivers of deforestation and degradation Political attention and engagement at the national level Alignment of the interests of multiple constituencies Performance-based finance payments based on achievements
Why might REDD fail? Main barriers: For participating in REDD: Weak institutions and governance structures Conflicts (e.g. central vs. local governmentetc.) Lack of human and institutional capacity For successful REDD: Those above Political economy underlying causes of deforestation Lack of transparency, corruption
Adaptation - a growing issue Publications on adaptation (all - not only on forests and adaptation) (Janssen, 2007)
Future long-term changes in global water resources Alcamo et al. 2007
Forests and climate change in literature Number of articles 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 World Tropical Non Tropical Less work on forests and adaptation, especially in the tropics 30 Adaptation and forests: Not growing Number of articles per year Mitigation Adaptation Miti & Adap Miti & Adap 20 Mitigation Adaptation Forest and climate change in 4 journals Global Environmental Change Climatic Change Climate Policy Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change (296 articles) 10 0 1985-1990 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2003 2004-2007 Years
Umeå Conference on Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change, 2008 Papers and posters presented (n = 253) 0 20 40 60 80 Impacts of climate change Forest health Forest management & conservation Adaptation Adapation and society Combining adaptation and mitigation North South
Forests = Providers of ecosystem services Direct benefits to societies
Ecosystem Services Ecosystem Services Components of Vulnerability to Climate Change (Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity) Regulating services Climate regulation Exposure (climate change) Vulnerability of a coupled human environment system Ecosystem Society Supporting services Regulating services Disease regulation Water regulation Water purification Provisioning services Cultural services Adaptive capacity of the ecosystem (e.g., ability of the ecosystem to conserve its integrity in a changing climate) Ecological sensitivity (e.g., effects of climate change on flooding or the emergence of diseases) Societal sensitivity (e.g., effects of flooding or diseases on society) Adaptive capacity of the society (e.g., capacity to prevent damages from flooding or diseases) Locatelli et al. 2009
Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Adaptation measures or policies that harness ecosystem services for adapting society to climate change Is necessarily: Multi-sectoral (e.g. water & agriculture & forest communities) Multi scale (local, meso/watershed, national, regional)
Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Considers: The vulnerability of ecosystems and livelihoods (to land-use change, over-harvesting, climate change, etc.). The links between ecosystem services and societal vulnerability Approaches: Communities and other stakeholders and decision makers in managing or protecting forest ecosystem services Community risk assessment Participatory vulnerability mapping Adaptation planning
Estimations of annual adaptation costs in developing countries in 2015 Source USD billion Comments World Bank (2006) 9-41 Cost of climate-proofing FDI, GDI and ODA flows Stern (2006) 4-37 Update, with slight modification of World Bank (2006) Oxfam (2007) >50 Based on World Bank, plus extrapolation of costs from NAPAs and NGO projects UNDP (2007) 86-109 World Bank, plus costing of PRS targets, better disaster response UNFCCC (2007) 27-66 High infrastructure cost UNFCCC (2007) 11-13 Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (Parry et al., 2009)
Mechanism Strategic Priority on Adaptation Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) Multilateral funds for adaptation (Modified and updated based on Mohan & Morton, 2009) Available (M USD) Comments 50 GEF - UNFCCC Multilateral financial mechanism funded by developed country pledges 115 GEF - UNFCCC Supports the preparation and implementation of National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPAs) 65 GEF - UNFCCC Supports long term mitigation and adaptation needs of developing countries 350 Part of Strategic Climate Fund within the Climate Investment Funds (CIFs) World Bank First imbursements in 2010 Adaptation Fund 350 UNFCCC/Kyoto 2% levy on CDM First project approved in 2010
Conclusions REDD+: part of a global climate change regime National circumstances and priorities Effectiveness, efficiency, and equity Overshooting climate targets adaptation needed Adaptation becomes crucial for sustainable development Mitigation needs adaptation (= synergies) Adaptation is essential to protect future mitigation potential of forests Research to analyze: Drivers of change (dynamics), barriers of adoption, Synergies (win-win), trade-offs Links between sustainable development and adaptation
Thank you m