Modeling the impacts of new border crossing corridor in Windsor, Ontario (Congestion, Accessibility and Emissions) Presenter: Shakil Khan Co-authors: Hanna Maoh and William Anderson, Cross-Border Institute, University of Windsor 5 th International Urban Freight Conference (I-NUF) October 08-10, 2103 Long Beach, California
Background Windsor-Detroit Corridor (Ambassador Bridge) Handles about 27% of Canada s surface trade Daily Trade value ~ $ 400 Million Avg. Daily Truck Crossing in 2012 (Both Directions) ~ 6800 Busiest Freight Crossing in the world 2
Background Windsor-Detroit Corridor: Ontario Crossing Total Truck Crossings (2012) (Both Direction) Niagara (Queenston Bridge) 344,753 Fort Erie ( Peace Bridge) 602,915 Sarnia ( Blue Water Bridge) 797,915 Windsor(Ambassador Bridge) 2,506,660 Source: Statistics Canada and OPBA, 2012 3
Background Windsor-Essex Parkway (WEP): is currently being constructed to facilitate a new crossborder corridor between Canada the United States through Windsor, Ontario is Ontario s single most significant infrastructure investment will connect Highway-401 (Hwy401) in southwest Ontario to Interstate- 75 in Detroit, Michigan, through a new international bridge on the Detroit is a six-lane controlled access freeway facility that consists of eleven tunnels and service roads. Adapted from DRICS, 2008 4
Adapted from DRICS, 2008 WEP is westward extension of Highway 401, one of the busiest highways in North America Impacts of Windsor-Essex Parkway Project 5
Source: DRICS, 2012 Ambassador Bridge New International Trade Crossing ( DRIC) Source: Canadian Transit Company - Ambassador Bridge Enhancement Project, 2012 6
Background Source: MapQuest, 2013 7
Objectives: To assess the impacts of the WEP on the region s transportation network in terms of changes in the levels of : Traffic congestion Location accessibility Environmental emissions 8
Methods of Analysis Project population and employment spatial distribution for the period 2011 2031 Predict associated travel demand for passenger and commercial vehicles Predict Cross Border travel demand Employ a Simulation Approach to assess future impacts 9
Methods of Analysis Simulate region wide traffic flow patterns under different border crossing regimes Scenario 0 (AMB 100, No WEP) Scenario 1 (AMB100) Scenario 2 (AMB50) Scenario 3 (AMB0) Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 all assume that the Windsor-Essex Parkway is part of the region s transportation network 10
Land Use Map Windsor CMA 11
Methods of Analysis (a) (b) Projected Population and Employment for the Windsor CMA at TAZ Level, 2031. 12
The Modeling Framework ArcGIS 10 13
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Reference Map Key Corridors of Windsor-Essex Region 15
Results Traffic Flows -Year 2031 AMB100 (without WEP) AMB100 (with WEP) 16
Results cnt d Congestion Index (C.I) - Year 2031 C. I link volume link capacity q( l) x( l) Corridor AMB100 (without WEP) AMB100 (with WEP) AMB50 AMB0 Direction SB NB SB NB SB NB SB NB Huron Church Road between E. C. Row Expressway and Wyandotte Street 1.74 1.85 1.57 1.63 1.25 1.25 0.69 0.87 Direction WB EB WB EB WB EB WB EB E. C. Row Expressway from Huron Church Road To Walker Road 2.77 2.68 2.3 2.21 2.29 2.23 2.34 2.23 Tecumseh Road between Howard Ave. and Huron Church Road 0.87 0.79 0.74 0.41 0.75 0.32 0.77 0.41 Windsor-Essex Parkway 0.76 0.34 0.82 0.18 0.86 0.39 17
Results cnt d Congestion Index (C.I) - Year 2031 Effect of Windsor-Essex Parkway on Local Traffic 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 North South AMB100 With WEP AMB100 Without WEP 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 AMB100 With WEP AMB100 Without WEP 0 North South 18
Results cnt d Locational Accessibility -Year 2031 1. Central Business District (CBD) 2. The University Plaza 3. Intersection of Malden Road and Laurier Rd 1 2 3 19
Results cnt d After noon Peak Hour ( 4:00 PM) Travel Times-Year 2031 30.0 25.0 20.0 25.2 From Hwy3/Hwy401 to AMB From Hwy3/Hwy401 to DRIC 15.0 10.0 10.4 5.6 6.1 12.5 11.2 8.5 9.2 5.0 0.0 FFTT AMB100 AMB50 AMB0 From Hwy3/Hwy401 Interchange to AMB and DRIC FFTT: free flow travel time (i.e. no traffic is observed) 20
Results Traffic Emissions -Year 2031 HC CO NOx CO Vehicle 2 Scenario type (tonnes) (tonnes) (tonnes) (tonnes) AMB100 PV 0.61 10.05 1.19 280.07 (Without LCV 0.02 0.65 0.07 16.38 WEP) MCV+HCV 0.11 5.07 2.2 193.49 TOTAL 0.73 15.76 3.45 489.95 AMB100 PV 0.5 8.1 1.01 254.61 LCV 0.01 0.52 0.06 12.95 MCV+HCV 0.08 3.87 1.77 143.33 TOTAL 0.59 12.49 2.84 410.89 AMB0 PV 0.5 8.17 1.01 254.84 LCV 0.01 0.52 0.06 12.99 MCV+HCV 0.04 1.94 0.89 70.68 TOTAL 0.56 10.63 1.96 338.51 Approx. 20%, 21%, 18% and 17% lower than AMB100 ( without WEP) 21
Total Vehicle Emissions [Tones], 2031 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 HC CO NOx AMB100 Without WEP AMB100 With WEP 500 0.08 480 460 440 420 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 400 0.02 380 0.01 360 CO2 0 PM2.5 22
Results Traffic Emissions -Year 2031 Particulate Matter (PM 2.5) Estimates Simulated Border Crossing Scenarios Emissions AMB 100 AMB100 AMB50 AMB0 (Without WEP) Total PM2.5 75.03 kg 62.38 kg 61.80 kg 61.21 kg Brake and Tire Wear 1.02 kg 0.80 kg 0.80 kg 0.79 kg PM includes: Organic carbon (OCarbon), Elemental carbon (ECarbon), Gasoline particulate matter (GASPM), Lead (Pb), Sulphur dioxide(so2), Sulphate (SO4), Brake Wear Particulate (Brake) and Tire Wear Particulate (Tire). 23
PM 2.5 (kg) Results cnt d Traffic Emissions -Year 2031 Comparison of Hourly PM2.5 Estimates for Heavy Commercial Vehicles 60 50 40 30 AMB100 (Without WEP) AMB100(With WEP) AMB0 20 10 0 Hour 24
Conclusions The differences in all indicators are greatest between the base scenario (without the Parkway) and all three Parkway scenarios Reductions in System Wide Emission are estimated to range between 17-22% if the WEP becomes operational (i.e. AMB100 No WEP and AMB100 WEP) Particulate matter PM 2.5 (brake and Tire) saving is estimated at 22% between AMB100 No WEP and AMB100 WEP. Parkway / Bridge project has the potential to reduce total regional pollution emissions by more than one fifth. WEP will have a substantial impact on all aspects of the regional transportation system. 25
Acknowledgment The authors are thankful to the financial support of the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario (MTO). Contact Info: Cross Border Institute CBI) University of Windsor, Windsor ON. Canada Shakil Khan : skhan@uwindsor.ca Hanna Maoh : maohhf@uwindsor.ca William Anderson : bander@uwindsor.ca 26
Impacts of Windsor-Essex Parkway Project 27
Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) 28
The Road Network 29
WEP integrated into the Windsor road network 30