MODELING AT SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT (SFWMD) UNESCO IHE LECTURES - 2017 5/25/2017 Akintunde Owosina P.E. Chief, Hydrology and Hydraulics Bureau Operations, Engineering & Construction Division
The South Florida System Agriculture Estuaries & Bays South Florida s watershed, extending from Orlando to the Florida Keys, supports a population of 8.1 million residents, sustains significant agricultural production and is comprised of several natural areas including America s Everglades, Lake Okeechobee and many estuaries. The regional water management system is highly complex, containing hundreds of water control structures & pumps and more than 2000 miles of canals & levees. The system is frequently tested by natural climate variability, competing objectives and the fact that the majority of South Florida is only a few feet above sea level.
SFWMD Mission Manage and Protect Water Resources of the Region by Balancing and Improving - Flood Control - Water Supply - Natural Systems - Water Quality How Mange Drought & Floods Provide Water Supply Protect & Restore Ecosystems Prepare for Emergencies Land Management Science, Planning, Engineering, & Construction Operation & Maintenance Regulation Water Supply Development Coastal Watersheds & Estuaries Everglades Kissimmee Lake Okeechobee
Decade of the 70s [analog model] Analog Model Electric Analog Model Simulated water levels and flows in coastal region Upgraded Regional Routing Model to include daily time step Initial development of SFWMM (2x2)- a regional-scale computer simulation model
Decade of the 90s Physical Modeling - Real system
Decade of the 90s Physical Model at U.C. Berkeley
Before After Back Again Success!
How modeling is organized today Centralized Model Development using a standardized methodology Centralized Regional Modeling Decentralized sub-regional modeling with centralized technical review Standard procedure for modeling intake Emergency Modeling Team (EMT) activated during major storm events and emergencies
Who needs modeling at the SFWMD? Regulation (permitting, rulemaking) Water Resources (data collection and monitoring, flood control, water supply, water quality protection, ecosystem protection) Restoration (planning, permitting support) Operations and Maintenance (flood control, operational planning, engineering design) Office of Counsel (litigation support, rule making) Executive Office (policy/decision support)
Value Proposition Modeling support critical functions To be useful must add value Provide answers in time for decisions Help understand and communicate complicated systems Help build consensus Help explore solutions space at low cost Be reliable and credible
Process Improvements: Implementation Requirements definition Modeling Intake Process Project Management (Charters, PMP, Schedule Tracking) CAPABILITY MATURITY MODEL (CMMi) Peer Review (Internal & External) Documentation QA/QC Library of Models
Modeling Process (ASTM) American Standards Data Collection Conceptual Model Calibration & Sensitivity Peer review Sufficient Data Yes No No Accurate? Code Selection Model Construction Yes Predictive Simulations Peer review Sensitivity/ Uncertainly Analysis
Flood Control Planning, Engineering, Operations and Permitting: Basin level modeling to develop basin rules - allowable peak flow per square mile Access level of service (for example for flood protection) Evaluate developer applications to determine impact to existing users and key infrastructure Consider potential risk of flooding to road elevations, house pads Establish peak discharge from development based on downstream conditions
Restoration of the Everglades
An Ecosystem in Trouble... WHY? Current Flow
Regional and Sub Regional Model Meshes SubRegional Models Applied to District and CERP Projects NSRSM SRWMD Water Supply Planning Department High Resolution subregional Models SJWMD ECFT East Central Florida Transient Model NSM 2x2 Lower Kissimmee Lower Kissimmee Basin Ground Water Model SWFWMD LECsR SFWMD Lower East Coast subregional Model LWC Floridan Lower West Coast Floridian Model LWC SAS SFWMM (2x2) Lower West Coast Surfical Aquifer System Loxahatchee EC FLA Watershed RSM East Coast Floridan Aquifer System Model Model Locations (as of 3/27/07) LKBGW ECFT LWC SAS LWCF LECsR EC FLA 0 4.5 9 18 27 36 Miles
South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM) Integrated surface water groundwater model Regional-scale 3.2 x 3.2 km, daily time step Major components of hydrologic cycle Overland and groundwater flow Canal and levee seepage Operations of C&SF system Water shortage policies Extensive performance measures Provides input and boundary conditions for other models
Hydrologic Performance Measures http://141.232.10.32/pm/recover/system_wide_modeling.aspx#
RSM Engines RSM Hydrologic Simulation Engine (HSE) South Florida Regional Simulation Model SFRSM Management Simulation Engine (MSE) Model physical setup Simulate hydrologic processes Overland flow Groundwater flow Canal network Calibration/validation of model parameters Use observed structure flows Simulate structure operations Implementation of operational rules Flood control rules Water supply policies Maintain minimum flows & levels Regional operational coordination
Example RSM Implementations RSMBN: Link Node Model Over 100 Basins and Lakes RSMGL: Number of cells: 5,794 Average size: ~ 1 s. mile Approximately 1000 Canal Segments
Numerical Mesh 5,794 triangular cells Mean & standard deviation of mesh cell sizes: 1.01 mi 2 & 0.74 mi 2 Mesh cell size range: 0.05 mi 2 to 3.92 mi 2 WCA-3B has the finest resolution; BCNP has the coarsest resolution WCA-3A has a total of 984 cells Average cell size in WCA-3A is 0.79 mi 2 ; standard deviation is 0.24 mi 2 0 9 18 27 36 Miles Legend Structure Canals Basins Mesh Model Boundary
EVERGLADES LANDSCAPE MODEL Integrate hydrology, biology and nutrient cycling in spatially explicit simulation Understand ecosystem dynamics at regional scale Develop predictions of landscape response to altered water & nutrient management
Across Trophic Level System Simulation Integrated system of biotic models 500 x 500 m resolution or finer Use hydrologic output from SFWMM Processes include: lower trophic level, e.g. periphyton or zooplankton fish and macroinvertebrates individual species models, e.g. Cape Sable seaside sparrow, wood storks, American alligators, Florida panther Goal is to understand how biotic communities are affected by different hydrologic regimes http://www.atlss.org/
Water Conservation Area 3 Decompartmentalization Physical Model Answering Questions Hydrology, Physical Transport, Biological
Operational Planning supporting how the massive infrastructure is run and operated to achieve multiple goals and objectives
Development of Operating Rules for Lake Okeechobee In-lake Ecosystem Multiobjective Tradeoff Analysis
Figure 7-2 Elevation (feet, NGVD) Lake Okeechobee Management Zones Upp er R ang e M id d le R ang e 17.5 16.5 15.5 14.5 Lo wer R ang e 13.5 12.5 11.5 High Intermediate Low Base Flow Beneficial Use HIGH LAKE MANAGEMENT BAND OPERATIONAL BAND Lake stage w ithin 1 ft. of Intermediate 10.5 9.5 WATER SHORTAGE MANAGEMENT BAND 8.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTES: High Lake Management Band: Outlet canals may be maintained above their optimum w ater management elevations. Operational Band: Outlet canals should be maintained w ithin their optimum w ater management elevations. Water Shortage Management Band: Outlet canals may be maintained below optimum w ater management elevations. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PROJECT 2008 LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTERIM REGULATION SCHEDULE PART B DATED: M arch 2008 DEPARTM ENT OF THE ARM Y, JACKSONVILLE DISTRICT CORPS OF ENGINEERS, JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA
Regulation Schedule Operational Elements Lake Okeechobee Water Level Tributary Hydrologic Conditions 30 Day Net Rainfall Average Kissimmee River inflow Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook Seasonal Outlook (6 month) Multi-seasonal Outlook (up to12 months)
Note: This operational guidance provides essential supplementary information to be used in conjunction with other supporting documentation including text within the Water Control Plan. High Lake Management Band 2008 LORS When conducting Base Flow releases, flows can be distributed East and West up to 650 cfs as needed to minimize impacts or provide benefits through S-80 and S-79 Apply Meteorological Forecasts on a Weekly Basis; apply Seasonal and Multi-Seasonal Climate/Hydrologic Outlooks on a Monthly Basis Lake level projected to rise to High Lake Management Band Up to Maximum Discharge Capacity To Tidewater START Lake Okeechobee Level Figure 7-4 High Intermediate Low * S-79 Up to 450 cfs S-80 Up to 200 cfs Tributary Hydrologic Conditions Tributary Hydrologic Conditions Tributary Hydrologic Conditions VERY WET DRY VERY WET DRY VERY WET NORMAL TO WET NORMAL TO WET WET NORMAL Lake Stage within 1.0 ft of Intermediate FALSE Up to 30 day Meteorological Forecast Seasonal Climate/Hydro Outlook & Meteorological Forecast TRUE Up to 30 day Meteorological Forecast Up to 30 day Meteorological Forecast Lake level projected to rise to High NORMAL TO DRY EITHER FORECAST INDICATES NORMAL TO VERY WET BOTH FORECASTS INDICATE DRY Seasonal Climate/Hydrologic Outlook Seasonal Climate/Hydrologic Outlook NORMAL TO DRY NORMAL TO VERY WET DRY VERY WET OTHERWISE NORMAL OR WETTER Seasonal Climate/Hydrologic Outlook NORMAL TO VERY WET Multi- Seasonal Climate/Hydro Outlook Multi- Seasonal Climate/Hydro Outlook WET TO VERY WET DRY NORMAL TO DRY WET TO VERY WET S-77 Up to 6500 cfs S-80 Up to 2800 cfs S-79 Up to 3000 cfs S-80 Up to 1170 cfs S-77 Up to 6500 cfs S-80 Up to 2800 cfs S-77 Up to 4000 cfs S-80 Up to 1800 cfs S-79 Up to 3000 cfs S-80 Up to 1170 cfs S-79 Up to 450 cfs S-80 Up to 200 cfs S-77 Up to 4000 cfs S-80 Up to 1800 cfs S-79 Up to 3000 cfs S-80 Up to 1170 cfs Base Flow * DRY * OTHERWISE OTHERWISE (NORMAL TO DRY) * Very Dry Conditions may require that releases to tide (estuaries) be discontinued S-79 Up to 450 cfs S-80 Up to 200 cfs
Lake Okeechobee SFWMM August 1, 2014 Dynamic Position Analysis Percentiles based on 41 possible outcomes starting with July 1 st initialization ~10% chance stage rises above the Low Sub-band before November (was <5% chance last month) <25% chance stage falls into the Beneficial-Use Sub-Band by early March 50% chance stage is within purple-shaded region WET SEASON DRY SEASON 30
Water Supply Planning & Regulation Support
Development of Operating Rules for Lake Okeechobee
Impact of Proposed Withdrawal Model simulated drawdown in the Lower Floridan Aquifer Resulting from 30 Million Gallons a Day Withdrawal (MGD)
Other Modeling Efforts Regulation & Water Use Permitting Permit review process Coastal Ecosystem Division Coastal Simulations in support of MFLs and Reservations Lake Okeechobee Various in support of Lake Okeechobee Issues Others Design level models in Engineering Structure scale models in Operations
Hydrodynamic Lake and Estuary Modeling Lake Okeechobee Environmental Model (LOEM) CH3D estuary models
Local Fluid Dynamic Modeling CFD Flow Study at G420 Pump Station
Optimization, Inverse and Systems Modeling
Path to Successful Integration Understanding the problem Understanding the proper role of modeling in addressing the problem Selecting the right tool for the job (not necessarily the most complex) Adding value (timely result with appropriate rigor) Flexibility and imagination Communication skills Technical skills
Questions