Strategy for Northeast Asia Power System Interconnection (NAPSI) Technical Assistance (ADB 9001-MON) Itgel Bold NAPSI project team representative Irkutsk, Russia August 28-29, 2017 1
Northeast Asia: Nearly 40% of global CO2 emissions from the region 2
Installed capacity & electricity production in 2016 Russia 0.1 0.2 Mongolia 1,059 (232) 0.6 5 (1) 1.2 19 (9) DPRK China 5,472 (1,146) 545 (94) Korea Japan 1,025 (302) 5 production in 2016 (TWh) (1) installed capacity (GW) Cross border trade (ТWh) Source: International Energy Agency 2016 3
Power generation mix: High share of fossil fuel Source: Created by Renewable Energy Institute based on CEC Annual Data, IEA Statistics by countries Electricity Information 2016, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016. 4
Projected electricity production in 2030 compared with 2016 Russia 1,059 1,600 Mongolia 5 12 19 N/A DPRK China 5,472 11,800 545 900 Korea Japan 1,025 1,300 5 production in 2016 (TWh) 12 estimates in 2030 (TWh) Source: BP energy outlook 2030 5
Electricity tariff in region 2016: Highest Japan and lowest Mongolia Russia 14 8.5 Mongolia 5.3 4.9 China 10.7 7.5 7.4 8.5 Korea Japan 16.2 22.5 5.3 Industrial (cent/kwh) 4.9 Household (cent/kwh) Source: Energy Regulatory Commission 2016 6
Solar and wind potential: Highest in Mongolia and China Wind potential Solar potential Mongolia 946 TWh Mongolia 4,774 TWh China Onshore 3,826 TWh Japan 34 TWh China 27,374 TWh Korea 309 TWh Japan 809 TWh Source: http://globalatlas.irena.org/ 7
Solution: Interconnection + renewable + intelligence = smart grid Source: Electric power grid interconnections in Northeast Asia: A quantitative analysis of opportunities and challenges. 8
Task being undertaken in Mongolia with ADB support TA 9001-MON: Strategy for Northeast Asia Power System Interconnection Study cost: US$1.75 million Implementation period: 2 years (from May 2017 to May 2019) Executing Agency: Ministry of Energy, Mongolia Study team: Électricité de France + China Electric Power Reach Institute + Nova Terra (Mongolia) 9
Strategy for Northeast Asia Power System Interconnection (NAPSI) The technical assistance is to prepare a strategy for the Government of Mongolia on Northeast Asia power system interconnection using Mongolia s abundant renewable energy EDF s recognized experience in power system integration in a region representing 25% of the world GDP EDF with: Nova Terra in Mongolia and China EPRI Participation of PJSC ROSSETI 3 MASTER PLANS over 20 years Renewable generation Interconnection Grid Market & Power Trade 10
Advisory committee members Mongolia: Ministry of Energy, Central Region Transmission Company, Energy Regulatory Commission, China: State Grid of China and/or GEIDCO (proposed) Korea: KEPCO (proposed) Japan: Renewable Energy Institute Russia: ROSSETI International organizations: Energy Charter, IRENA 11
Work organization Module 1: Inception Mission Module 2: Market & power trade assessment Module 3: Planning & evaluation criteria Module 4: Energy sector profile & projections Module 5: Power system interconnectio n expansion plan Module 6: Institutional and tariff settlements & modelling Data collection & methodology 5 countries workshop #1 organized in Ulaanbaatar Demand scenarios Economic analysis 5 countries workshop #2 in Seoul Project team added value Updating work with the latest data Development of technical, financial, political and environmental criteria 5 countries workshop #3 in Tokyo Analysis of current sector and assessment of renewable potential Identification of suitable areas for solar and wind development 5 countries workshop #4 in TBD Deeper valuable insights of current implemented power projects Coherent vision of the five independent power systems Dedicated RE potential analysis tool Review of current planning and review of technologies for expansion plan Analysis of benefits of interconnection 5 countries workshop #5 in TBD Demand and supply coherent scenarios suitable for the regional power systems Dedicated model to study the interconnection between the regional power systems Create and enabling environment for power trade Promote coordinated regional planning and investment 5 countries workshop #6 in TBD 12
Upcoming confirmed events November 2017 conference in Korea March 2018 conference in Japan The project team and ADB welcome those interested in this study to participate in conferences and / or as an advisory committee member! 13