Urban Form, Vehicle Technology and Air Quality Dr Paul Goodman Research Associate, Transport Operations Research Group, Newcastle University and Dr Gordon Mitchell, University of Leeds, Dr Anil Namdeo, Newcastle University 22 nd November 2012 Final Conference, London, November 2012
Aims and Objectives Assess performance of road network, assuming: Regional planning options (urban form) Vehicle fleet technology changes Over the time horizon from 2001, towards 2050 In terms of: Greenhouse Gas Emissions (primarily uco 2 ) Local Air Quality Emissions (primarily Oxides of Nitrogen, Particulate Matter) Noise, Safety, Water run-off Using bespoke software developed at Newcastle University (PITHEM)
PITHEM Modelling Workflow Model Stack Supporting Information
Area of Regard for Scenarios Emissions modelling in PITHEM Detailed Air-Quality Modelling in ADMS-Urban 3.1 (CERC)
Modelled Scenarios (Part 1) The scenarios are extensions of those in the SOLUTIONS project: 2001 Base Case 2021 Trend or Business as Usual (BAU) : Growth around city fringes and in South Cambridgeshire/Northstowe over 2001 Introduction of guided busways, A14 improvements and additonal ring-road sections Continued dieselification of the passenger car fleet (urban: 55% diesel) 2021 Urban Centre Compaction: Extra 19,000 dwellings in Cambridge City over Trend Trend towards small, petrol-engined city-cars (<1.4 litre) 2021 Urban Centre Compaction Plus : As above, but with limited uptake of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) Uptake based on base of 0.01% in 2012, rising by 0.1% per year to 2015, then at 0.5% per year beyond 2015 (ENTEC, 2009)
Modelled Scenarios (Part 2) The scenarios are extensions of those in the SOLUTIONS project: 2021 Market-Led Dispersal: Growth at city fringes and along transport corridors: A14, M11 and A10 Outer ring-road forms complete loop of the Cambridge City Continued dieselification of the passenger car fleet, compounded with trend towards larger-engined (>2.0 litre) vehicles 2021 Planned Expansion: Road network similar to in BAU/Trend 2021 Increase in demand for bus and park and ride travel Extra provision of public transport (clean EURO VI buses) Commensurate reduction in passenger car kilometres
Vehicle Fleet : Technology Roadmap (Adapted from BERR / New Automotive Innovation and Growth Team (NAIGT), 2009)
Vehicle Fleet : Temporal Changes e.g. For Passenger Cars Change in urban VKM travelled with fuel type Diesel share on increase in UK Change in urban VKM travelled with technology type EURO 5 emissions standard is current EURO 6 enters in 2016 (Source: UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, 2012) All fleet is EURO 6 by 2034
Sample Fleet-Weighted Emissions e.g. 2012 uco 2 Emissions UK Emissions Factors Toolkit v5.1.3 (August 2012) Incorporates EU COPERT NO x curves Fuel/Energy consumption curves similar Other pollutants have different shaped curves (Source: UK NAEI / EFT5.1.3 / PITHEM v1.02, 2012)
Network Performance (2001 Base) Increase in VKM travelled, yet decrease in uco2 based on predicted vehicle fuel efficiencies. Note little decrease in primary NO 2 though values in model for earlier < 08 and later years > 16 are somewhat uncertain.
Network Performance (2021 BAU Base) 21 Compaction Plus = Best 21 Dispersion = Worst Is this the case though? What is the spatial pattern of emissions? Are some areas affected disproportionately and existing AQ problems exacerbated? Are all pollutants equal?
Spatial Analysis Examples : uco 2 Total uco 2 Emissions Intensity of uco 2 Emissions As a GHG are spatial emissions of CO 2 important? What about local air quality issues?
Spatial Analysis : LAQ NO x Emissions Δ Annual Mean NO x Emissions, %
Annual NO x Concentrations Annual Mean NO x Concentration, μg/m 3
Changes in NO x Concentrations Δ Annual Mean NO x Concentration, μg/m 3
Changes in NO 2 Concentrations Δ Annual Mean NO 2 Concentration, μg/m 3
Conclusions Compaction option appears to reduce total network emissions but exacerbates potential city centre air quality problems Planned expansion and dispersal have little effect on the city centre, but may cause new issues elsewhere EURO emissions standards and dieselification of the passenger car fleet biggest drivers of change over the studied period Overall network performance of planning options: -13 to +8% Localised effects on emissions much larger: -40 to +50% new roads where there were none before > traffic growth? translate to changes of -11.5 - +16 μg/m 3 NO x translate to changes of -7.0 - +8.3 μg/m 3 NO 2 grid resolution 125m really local AQ issues likely to remain
Modelling Issues Suitability of purpose? Can strategic models be used to model local air quality? Do strategic models adequately represent localised speeds and congestion? Life Cycle Assessment? Issues with data? Uptake of electric vehicles how fast and how much impact on generation sector? Uptake of hybrid vehicles - how do these vehicles operate in urban conditions? Are EURO V and VI all they are expected to be? Is NO 2 always going to be the local AQ focus? PM 2.5? Ammonia? Other Modes and Sectors? Road only at present? Light and Heavy Rail?
Avenues of Exploration Always need more/better data on: Emissions from new vehicles and Uptake rates of new technologies Development of background models or screening tools from ReVISIONs outputs? Full ADMS run of Cambridge 1 day practical for whole county or region? Want to know where issues are, then model those in more detail Links to other models? Building type and height info? Exposure and Health Modelling? Environmental Justice and Sustainability Thanks for your time!