Green Revolution in China: Past and Future

Green Revolution in China: Past and Future Zhangliang CHEN China Agricultural University chen@cau.edu.cn

Chinese ancestors made great contributions to agriculture Cultivar rice over 6000 years discovered in Zhejiang Province

Hani Terrace in Yunnan (constructed over 1200 years ago) Xu GuangQi (1562-1633),Ming Dynasty

Significant Achievements in Grain Productivity in China in Green Revolution MT 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1949 1957 1970 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 7% of arable land to feed 22% world population in China

Key People to China for Green Revolution Deng, Xiaoping He, Kang Yuan, Longping World Food Prize Laureates

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Agricultural Production Determinants 180 170 160 150 Irrigated area Chemical fertilizer Agri. machinary power Agri. labor Agricultural Policy Technology Inputs Income growth and changing preference and Arable Land and Water Resources 140 130 120 110 100 90 80

Reform of Agriculture Policy in 1978 made significant contribution to food security in China

Small family-based farming system: 4.4 persons per household with 2.8 laborers working on 0.6 hectare of cultivated land One farmer on average produces (in a year): grain cotton oil-bearing crops red meats aquatic products milk 1362.0kg 15.4 kg 88.9 kg 174.1 kg 148.8 kg 55.2 kg High cost and low productivity hard to compete on market

Nitrogen Nutrients,metric tons Nitrogen Inputs Figure 1. Nitrogen Inputs in China's Agriculture,1952-96 40 600 Grain production 30 Fertilizer 500 400 300 20 200 100 0 1949 1957 1970 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 10 Organic Recycling Biofixation 0 Atmospheric deposition 1952 1960 1970 1980 1985 1990 1996 Source:FAO 2003

Hybrid Rice: Yield Increase: 20% 15 million ha. (more than 1/2 of rice planting area in China) Yuan Rongping

1978 1985 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1978 1980 1985 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Shares of Urban and Rural Population % 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Rural Per Capita Income of Rural Resident Urban RMB/Per capita 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

Output of Livestock Products (10,000 tons) 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Meat Pork, Beef and mutton Milk Poultry Eggs

Structure of China's Agricultural Economy,1970-2000 Share in Agricultural Output (%) 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Crop 82 76 69 65 58 56 Livestock 14 18 22 26 30 30 Fisheries 2 2 3 5 8 11 Forestry 2 4 5 4 3 4 Sources: CNSS, China Statistical Yearbook (various issues) and China Rural Statistics Yearbook (various issues).

Structural changes in the crop sector 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 80.30% 19.70% Cereals Cash crop 65.20% 34.80% 0% 1978 1985 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

New Stage of China Agriculture since late 1990s The supply of agricultural products has undergone historical transformation from chronic shortage to basic equilibrium or supply surplus in good years. Income to farmers increases, consumption and demand change from quantitative to qualitative Contribution of agriculture to the China s economy declines. Both environment and conditions of agricultural development have undergone profound and significant changes, especially entered WTO.

Contribution of agriculture to the China s economy: Rapid declining of agriculture s share in total GDP 140000 RMB10,000 % 80 Economic Growth 1978-2003 GDP: 9.4% Agriculture: 4.5% Industry: 11.6% 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 GDP Agricultural Gross Value Added Share of agriculture in GDP, % Share of of agriculture in employment, % 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Service: 10.3% 0 1978 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 0

China-USA Trade Trade Balance Chinese currency value (RMB) with US $ exchange rate Intellectual property right

Bilateral Trade in Agriculture between China and USA 2000-2004 (US$ million) Year China s Import China s Export China s Trade Deficit - 2004 7,693.69 2,395.77 5,297.92 2003 5,014.79 2,102.88 2,911.91 2002 2,722.79 1,679.72 1,043.07 2001 2,739.06 1,259.57 1,533.49 2000 2,590.96 1,184.36 1,406.60 Total 20,815.29 8,622.30 12,192.99

China s agricultural trade: 1992-2003 Unit 1992 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 Agricultural Gross Value AddeRMB billion 580 1199.3 1462.8 1541.2 1611.7 1709.2 Agricultural Gross Value AddeUSD billion 105.3 143.6 176.7 186.1 194.6 206.4 Agricultural exports USD billion 11.3 14.4 15.6 16.1 18.1 21.2 Imports of agricultural productusd billion 5.3 12.2 11.2 11.8 12.4 18.9 Net Export USD billion 6.0 2.2 4.4 4.3 5.7 2.3 Share of agriculture, in total trade Share of total exports % 13.3 9.7 6.3 6.1 5.6 4.8 Share of total imports % 6.6 9.2 5.0 4.9 4.2 4.6 Ratio to AGVA Exports % 10.8 10.0 8.8 8.7 9.3 10.3 Imports % 5.0 8.5 6.3 6.4 6.4 9.2 Import and export % 15.8 18.5 15.2 15.0 15.7 19.4 Net export % 5.7 1.5 2.5 2.3 2.9 1.1 Deficit in agriculture trade reached to $5.5 billion in 2004

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Soybean: Import and Export in China 10,000 ton 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 import export 0 Import: 26 million ton from USA, Brazil and Argentina In 2005. China produced only 16 million tons

Soybean Imports Total imports of soybean reach to 26 million tons in 2005. Highest in history. Will continue increase this year. Imports: USA: 11 million tons Brazil: 6 million tons Argentina: 5 million tons

Soybean Consumption and China Import (2000-2005) World consumption USA consumption China consumption China import Percentage of China import in world import 2000 25773 8305 3182 1325 24.91% 2001 27146 8548 3071 1039 19.07% 2002 29322 8080 4002 2142 34.04% 2003 28100 7178 3679 1693 31.22% 2004 31361 8821 4520 2570 39.49% 2005 33168 8781 4920 2750 40.57% In 2005, the import of beans in China has occupied 40.57%, so it greatly influences the price of beans in the futures market in the world.

Cotton Production and Import in China World production World consumption China production China consumption China import Percentage 2000 1935 3575 442 911 5 0.88% 2001 2150 3810 531 943 10 1.52% 2002 1921 3712 492 937 68 10.38% 2003 2070 3730 486 963 192 26.05% 2004 2622 4221 631 1049 139 19.42% 2005 2432 4441 533 1112 348 38.63% In 2005, the imported cotton has occupied 38.63%

Projections of Grain Production, Demand and Imports in China, 2020 (million metric tons) Projections Rosegrant et al. Huang et al. USDA World Bank Grain Production 541 552 443 566 Grain Demand 565 594 481 600 Grain Imports 24 43 37 34 Note: 'Grain' is defined in this table as wheat, rice (milled basis see note 4), corm, sorghum, millet, barley and oats. Source: Fan and Agcaoili-sombilla 1997.

WTO: Demonstration in HongKong, 2005 Agriculture is the major issue China: Deficit in agriculture trade reached to $5.5 billion in 2004

Government took strong action in enhancing the agricultural production in 2004 Reduction the agricultural tax in the first time in history and will cut it to 0 next year in whole country To increase the price of grains, some of them increase about 20% or more, encourage farmers to stay in farm. To control the price of fertilizer and farm machines. To exempt education expenses for farmers children To encourage the investment in rural area. Results show high increase in the production, 9% increase comparing to 2003, the highest in last 5 years. Farmers incomes Increased 6.8% 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 949 957 970 978 980 982 984 986 988 990 992 994 996 998 000 002 004

Strategic Actions and Consideration Future growth of agriculture and farmers income largely depends on public policy and investment. Restructure of farming system. Reducing the number of farmers will facilitate expansion of farm size, increasing labor productivity and competitiveness Transformation of employment structure within agriculture is important New technology applications are key factors to increase the production and food quality

Agricultural Biotechnology 100 million RMB 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 Chinese Government Inputs on Biotechnology Global Area of Biotech Crops (ISAAA): USA Argentina Brazil Canada China Paraguay India

Roger Beachy, 1986, Illinois

Regulation of Transgenic Plants in China 1986 National 863 R&D Program on transgenic plants 1993 National Biosafety Committee established 1996 First National Regulation on GM plants issued. First approval on commercialization of GM cotton, tomato, and sweet pepper. 2001 State Council promulgated the Regulations on Safety of Agricultural GMOs 2002 Ministry of Agriculture issued 3 supporting documents for the Regulations, including Safety Assessment, Safety of import and Regulations on Labeling

GMO approvals in China (up to June,2006) 192 research organizations and companies both domestic and international applied for approvals. Total applications: 1525, Approved for trials:456, environment releases:211, pre-production trials: 181. Ministry of Agriculture has issued 424 licenses for GM crops for production Issued 18 licenses to imports of raw materials of GM products

Approval of Commercialization of Transgenic Plants in China Bt.Cotton Bt.Cotton Anti-PG.Tomato Virus-R Tomato V-R Sweet Pepper CHS-Petunia Papaya PRV Monsanto Company CAAS HuaZhong Agri.Univ. Peking Univ. Peking Univ. Peking Univ. South China Ag. Univ.

GM Plants Tested or released in China Cotton Rice Wheat Maize Soybean Potato Oil rape Tobacco peanut cabbage tomato melon sweet pepper chili pepper papaya poplar tree petunia To 2005, total GM plant species:30; application:1044, approval for trials:777; commercial licenses issued:73

Insect-resistant Crops CAS CAAS CAU PKU. CAS

Cotton: 200 million farmers, textile exports reached to $115.7 billion in 2005, 15% of total exports.

Bt cotton areas in China, 1996-2005 (thousand hectares) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Over 60% cotton fields,about 6 million farmers adopted Bt cotton in 2005

Public Debates on GMO

Transgenic Rice in China Transgenic rice have been tested in fields and preproduction trials: Insects resistant Bacteria blight and fungal blast resistant Salt tolerance Herbicide tolerance Nutritional improvement Rice dwarf virus resistance

Integration of Xa-21 and bt-rice

Field-trial of Bt-rice

Bt Transgenic Rice

Herbicide-tolerance Transgenic Rice

Transgenic Rice, Salt Resistant

Commercialization of Transgenic Rice National Biosafety Committee approved the production of Xa-21 GM rice against leaf blight disease in Nov 2004, waiting for final approval from government. Green Peace involved in Chinese transgenic rice and made announcement of detection of GM rice in seeds market in HuBei Province, April, 2005 Japan and South Korea made decisions afterwards for detection the transgene in rice before importing from China. Still no approvals for any transgenic rice for production commercially. Iran approved for commercialization in 2005.

Green Peace Discovery: Transgenic Hybrid Bt Rice Seeds Shan you 63, April, 2005 Samples of rice seeds have been collected from seed companies, farmers and rice millers. Testing by the international laboratory Genescan has confirmed the presence of GE DNA in 19 samples out of 25 samples. BEIJING, CHINA -- April 12, 2005 Greenpeace called for an urgent, international product recall after uncovering the release of a variety of genetically engineered (GE) rice in China.

Greenpeace website Apr 13, 2005

Recent Problems in EU in GM Rice August in this year, EU announced the finding of GM rice imported from USA (long-grain rice contained GM Liberty Link rice LL601) and block the importation. Last month, Sept.5, Green Peace announced the discovery of GM components in import rice products (rice noodles). The same day, EU urged member countries to enhance the monitoring GM in food. To date, EU prohibit 25 member countries to sale and to import GM rice and its products. French administrators searched the largest rice noodle company (TangFreres) in France and tested their products. Asked them to stop the sale during the investigation.

GM Rice Needed to Be Approved Last month, Aug.26, the China National Biosafety Committee of Agricultural GMOs had a meeting for approvals of GM rice. Total 7 GM rice varieties have been discussed 6 varieties are related to insects resistance with genes of cry1ac, Cry1Ab and sck. 1 variety is related to bacterial resistance with gene Xa21

GMO Debates and Facts: GMO food safety So far, only two major genes are used mostly, Bt and herbicide resistance genes, in GM crops. Since 1960s, Chinese and other parts of world have used Bt bacterial as biological control for insects in vegetables and pine trees. No any toxic reported China has imported GM soybean from USA since 1999 and products including soybean oil, soy sauce, tofu, feeds for animals have been used. No reports on unsafe issue. Over 2 billion people from USA, Argentina, Brazil, Canada and some other countries have been using GM food for over 6 to 10 years, no case reported that toxic GM food to consumer

GMO Debates and Facts: Environment Safety Less pesticide or herbicide used in GM crops, create better or at least no worse environment. More other species of insects in Bt-cotton fields than fields spreading pesticides due to less pesticide. Cross pollination to wild rice if happened but the same when planting rice cultivars 40,-50,000 people poisoned due to pesticides in China annually, 400-500 people died.

Insecticide Use on Bt and Non-Bt Cotton in China 1999-2001, (kg/hectare of formulated product) 1999 2000 2001 Average Non-Bt 60.7 48.5 87.5 65.5 Bt 11.8 20.5 32.9 21.7 Non-Bt - Bt 48.9 28.0 54.6 43.8 Source: Pray et al., 2002.

Percentage of Bt and Non-Bt Cotton Farmers Suffering from Pesticide Poisonings in China 1999-2001 1999 2000 2001 Non-Bt 22 29 12 Bt 5 7 8 Non-Bt - Bt 17 22 4 Source: Pray et al., 2002

Distribution of Benefits between Farmers, Seed Companies, and Research Institutes CAAS Ji Dai Million USD Percen t Million USD Percen t Net Benefits to farmers 46-70 83-88 31-61 83-90 Gross revenues to seed co. 9.6 12-17 4.8 7-12 Returns to CAAS & Monsanto, Deltapine & Singapore Economic Development Board 0 0 1.9 3-5 Huang et. al. Survey

Labeling System for Agricultural GMOs 17 products are required to be labeled. Soybean seeds, soybean, soybean flour, soybean oil, and soybean meal. Corn seeds, corn, corn oil, corn flour Rape seeds, rapeseed, rapeseed oil, meal. Cotton seeds Tomato seeds, fresh tomatoes and tomato sauce

Labeling in China: Required to be labeled in 2002 6 months after announcement, none of foods are labeled as transgenic Many vegetables are labeled as non-transgenic Science and Technology Diary Sept.12, 2002 Soybean oil products have been reinforced to be labeled in 2004, markets are not affected Cost increases over 50% in production and sale management with labeling system

Nitrogen Nutrients,metric tons Biotech crops foods: non organic? Transgenes and their proteins are organic! Biotech crops should not be discriminated Green revolution continues. Figure 1. Nitrogen Inputs in China's Agriculture,1952-96 600 40 500 Fertilizer 400 30 300 200 20 100 0 1949 1957 1970 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 10 Organic Recycling Biofixation 0 Atmospheric deposition 1952 1960 1970 1980 1985 1990 1996

Consideration It has spent great amount of money in the world recently years for studying the safety of GMO and show no any evidence of toxic to human or animals or to environment. But because of regulation in each country, people still repeat each other for this work. People in many parts of the world are suffering from shortage of food. But this important technology could not be used in these countries We should learn the experiences from DNA recombinant drugs Europe is key region for application of biotech crops in the world. Luxury Syndrome should be changed. Agriculture Biotechnology combined with conventional breeding methods are very effective in crop improvements and should be considered as an important step in Green Revolution.

Thank you. chen@cau,edu,cn