NOAA National Water Model: Big Voluminous Data Challenges American Water Resources Association November 15, 2016 Edward Clark Director, Geo-Intelligence Office of Water Prediction 1
Presentation Outline Impetus for Change New Prediction Capabilities: The National Water Model (NWM) Challenges in Data Dissemination TOO MUCH POOR QUALITY TOO LITTLE 2
National Academy of Sciences Report: Weather Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to None Findings Recommendations NWS Modernization and Restructuring (MAR) did not directly address hydrologic prediction services A significant gap exists between the state of hydrologic science today and current NWS hydrologic operations The level of sophistication, representation of processes, and characterization of uncertainties in external research and operational communities outpace those used in NWS hydrology operations NWS Hydrologic Forecasters are extensively in the forecast loop Prioritize core capabilities - a MAR-like effort is needed to address long-standing and deep-seated issues in hydrology Improve pathways for collaboration & accelerate R2O Establish a hydrologic prediction testbed as part of the National Water Center Implement a consistent framework for hydrologic prediction skill assessment Transition RFC forecasters to over the loop enabling a shift in focus to model and product development, forecast interpretation, and decision support Qualifications for hydrologist positions were not updated in the MAR to require degreed hydrologists Lack of skill in modern computational programming, construction and use of new Earth System Models, current hydrologic data assimilation methodologies, and preparation and interpretation of meaningful ensemble predictions Hydrologist staff require re-education and continual retraining to enable adoption of state-ofthe-art prediction methodologies Instill evolutionary culture Add value to hydrologic forecasts through the use of more advanced models, data assimilation and employment of more sophisticated ensemble techniques 3
Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS): Partners and Missions Collaborative Science-Based Solutions to Address Societal Needs Water Information: Collects and disseminates reliable, impartial, and timely information needed to understand the Nation's water resources to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters US Army Corps of Engineers Water Management: Strengthens our Nation's security, energizes the economy, and reduces risks from disasters Water Prediction: Provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy. FEMA Response and Mitigation: Supports our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against respond to, recover from and mitigate all hazards IWRSS Partnership Anticipated IWRSS to Partnership expand will expand over time over time 4
Initial Stakeholder Priorities Flooding Water Quality Water Availability Drought Climate Change Need integrated understanding of near- and long-term outlook and risks Provide consistent, high resolution, integrated water analyses, predictions and data to address critical unmet information and service gaps Transform information into intelligence by linking hydrologic, infrastructural, economic, demographic, environmental, and political data Integrate Social Science to create Actionable Water Intelligence 5
Integrated Water Prediction Setting the Stage for Transformation Centralized Water Forecasting Demo (FY15) Enhanced Water Prediction Capability (FY16) Integrated Water Prediction (FY17 Proposed) National Water Model Development and Demonstration Implement and enhance first-ever NWM - Simultaneous, CONUS scale modeling of nation s entire river network Increase from current 4000 forecast locations to 2.7 million stream reaches across CONUS & forecast hydrologic parameters that define water budget Centralized Water Resources Data Services (CWRDS) Internal and external provision of enhanced water forecasts and information to core partners and stakeholders Water Resources Test and Evaluation Service (WRTES) Comprehensive objective verification and validation of the skill and utility of the NWM - intercompare skill of NWM and current operational forecast paradigm Hyper-Resolution Modeling Enhance NWM with nested, relocatable hyper-resolution zoom capability to capture urban and other fine-scale hydrologic processes Real-Time Flood Forecast Inundation Mapping Develop, demonstrate and implement real-time street-level flood inundation forecasts to provide critical information on areal extent, depth and timing of flood waters Enhance Impact-Based Water Resources Decision Support Services Forecasts linked to geospatial information to assess impacts/risks NWC and NWS field offices generate actionable water intelligence New and improved water prediction services Stand up the National Water Center Operations Center to coordinate Federal water prediction activities and provide water intelligence New service delivery model for coastal and inland communities Routine engagement with stakeholders to strengthen partnerships, deliver and enhance actionable water intelligence Link terrestrial freshwater and coastal estuary models Create fully coupled modeling system accounting for the combined impacts of surge, tide, wave and freshwater contributions in the coastal zone Secure high performance computing, storage and networking necessary to evolve NWM 6
National Water Model Version 1.0 WCOSS Implementation and guidance products available Office of Water Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Modeling partnership 30-day evaluation completed successfully on August 5 th, implementation successful on August 16 th, 2016 Foundation for sustained growth in nationally consistent operational hydrologic forecasting capability Goals for NWM V1.0 Provide forecast streamflow guidance for underserved locations Produce spatially continuous national estimates of hydrologic states (soil moisture, snow pack, etc.) Implement a modeling architecture that permits rapid infusion of new data and science, and allows for geointelligence linkages
National Water Model (NWM) Core: WRF-Hydro WRF-Hydro forms the foundation of the National Water Model A community-based, robust Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)-compliant hydrologic modeling framework supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) being put into operations by an OWP, NCAR and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) partnership Not dependent on a particular forcing data source or choice of LSM Able to operate over multiple scales and with multiple physics options IOC System Flow 1/1. NWM Forcings Engine (NWS numerical weather models and observations) (avg. size ~1mi 2 ) 1 1 http://www.rap.ucar.edu/~barlage/noah-mp/presentations/barlage_gswp3_26feb2014.pdf 8
NWM Operational Configuration Running Continuously on WCOSS since May 9 th Analysis & Assimilation Cycling Frequency Short-Range Medium-Range Long-Range Hourly Hourly Daily at 06Z Daily Ens (16 mem) Forecast Duration - 3 hours 0-15 hours 0-10 days 0-30 days Forecast Latency (latency of external forcing data accounts for most of delay) 1 hour 1 hour 45 mins 6 hours 19 hours Meteorological Forcing MRMS blend/ HRRR/RAP bkgnd. Downscaled HRRR/RAP blend Downscaled GFS Downscaled & biascorrected CFS Spatial Discretization & Routing 1km/250m/NHDPlus 1km/250m/NHDPlus Reach Reach Assimilation of USGS Obs 1km/250m/NHDPlus Reach 1 km/nhdplus Reach Reservoirs (1260 water bodies parameterized with level pool scheme)
NWM V1.0 Output Hydrologic Output River channel discharge and velocity at 2.7 million river reaches Reservoir inflow, outflow, elevation Ponded water depth and depth to saturation (250 m CONUS+ grid) 10 Land Surface Output 1km CONUS+ grid Soil and snow pack states Energy and water fluxes ~650 Gb/Day Direct-output and derived products (e.g. stream flow anomalies) Data Services Public-facing NWC website (animation, zoom, point and click hydrographs) Data feed to River Forecast Centers NOMADS data service (NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System) Current NWS AHPS points (red) NWM output points (blue) 10 NWM 1km LSM Domain Current NWS River Forecast Points (circles) Overlaid with NWM Stream Reaches
NWM: Data and Information Challenges Initial Dissemination How do we output both regularly structure and irregularly structured data? How do we serve and visualize large volumes of rapidly (hourly) changing data? http://water.noaa.gov 11
NWM: Data and Information Challenges How can the community access, leverage and develop valued added-services on the base data? Sub-setting for forcings, water budget variables, and stream-flow data 12
NWM: Data and Information Challenges How do we make sense of the data via initial products such as streamflow anomalies? How do we make sense of the data via potential impacts? How do we engage with social scientists from the onset? 13
Summary We face a multitude of challenges. The National Water Model is NOAA s first foray into Supercomputing for water resources applications. It is the beginning of a multi-year effort to water forecasting complementing the operational system in place today. Work to develop comprehensive dissemination systems to facilitate interrogation and application of the data is on-going. NOAA and the Office of Water Prediction are committed to sustained community engagement on the model and data services. Contact: Edward.clark@noaa.gov 14