CASE 1: Burlington Northern James Ryg CIS 410-01 Due September 7 th, 2016
Case Overview Brief: Burlington Northern is considering investing in a new railroad control system to completely overhaul their railroad operations. The intent of this case is to determine if the investment in development and deployment of their ARES System would be a beneficial business decision, or if there are alternate solutions that can provide a greater return on investment. Proposed Solution: The Advanced Railroad Electronics System is billed as being a completely automated solution that has been under consideration for nine years as of the case date (1). In addition to supporting general freight, ARES is also intended to streamline transport of natural resources extracted from Burlington Northern s land holdings (2). In terms of technology, ARES is said to be based on concepts developed for the airline industry, and relies on relatively accurate, but expensive GPS equipment (10). However, due to the technology available at the time, the system would require a large investment in a physical communication network. The project also suffered from a fair bit of scope creep, which expanded the project from a way to more accurately route and track freight, into a complete re-imagination of how the entire business would run, with specialized systems that would compute traffic plans in real time, as well as numerous other functionality (11). 1
This scope creep peaked in 1990, with the project evolving to include the initial scheduling goals, but also including an energy management ow the entire business would run, with specialized systems that would compute traffic plans in real time, as well as numerous other functionality (11). This scope creep peaked in 1990, with the project evolving to include the initial scheduling goals, but also including an energy management system, a vehicle diagnostic system, and an evolution of the original control software from the Iron range test (14). Financial cost bloomed accordingly, with a minimum investment of 350 million dollars for an entire rollout of the system alone, split between a control center, data link infrastructure, and onboard overhauls. Even with the high expense, ARES was expected to return a solid investment above 9% after-tax, and was generally considered a solid investment. Industry Competition Analysis Burlington Northern Information: Industry of operation: Burlington Northern is first and foremost a railroad business. They hold vast land resources, and extract and transport them for sale. Their primary segments in this industry include extraction and transportation of coal, agricultural goods, industrial products, intermodal goods, lumber, food & consumer goods, and automotive products, with coal being the largest revenue source of the seven (1-4). 2
In general, the railroad industry is an incredibly mature industry, with a history of decades of mergers and consolidations between major railroads across the country, and is generally fairly efficient in terms of moving freight. Company effectiveness analysis: Fiscal (2-3): In 1989, Burlington Northern had total revenues of approximately 4.61 billion, with expenses of 3.95 billion. Their net income was approximately 243 million dollars. In addition, they hold 6.15 billion dollars in total assets, with 5.05 billion in liabilities, most of which is composed of current long-term debt, and deferred income tax. Their debt to stockholder equity ratio is roughly 4.7:1. Revenue contribution by segment is as follows for the fiscal year 1989: Segment Revenue (millions) Revenue/ton mile Segment contribution Coal 1504 1.35 32.7% Agricultural 718 1.92 15.6% Industrial 682 2.57 14.8% Intermodal 649 3.02 14.1% Forest Products 480 2.53 10.4% Food/Consumer 413 2.72 9.0% Automotive 154 8.45 3.3% Total: 4600 Market Share: While the case does not present much market share information, the USDA notes that in 1980, Burlington Northern held 19% of the market for freight of grain, and that number likely rose, due to how they implemented certificates of transportation for grain transit (4). Product & Service: Burlington Northern, as stated above, operates freight for several industries, and offers contract service as well. Their on-time deliveries are fairly good for freight, in the 75-80 percent range, although this does not quite match the trucking 3
industry (6). However, Burlington Northern is facing pressure due to their infrastructure, as they have large wait times due to their single-width track layout, and desperately need to hire a larger team of industrial engineers, as they only had about a half dozen in 1989 (9). Critical success factors: Burlington Northern relies on having low cost freight, with fairly consistent deliveries, and a wide set of acceptable transit modes, as well as strong supply chain management. While they do offer lower cost, and a moderately strong delivery success rate, and integration of multiple supply chains and modes of transit, their older network and vehicle selection seems to limit them in terms of fuel economy and planning, which could lower costs further, and reduce cycle time, which is vital to their business. They also have employee difficulty with logging accuracy, which reduces their quality of service significantly (10). Five Forces Analysis: Threat of new entry: The threat of new entry is fairly low in the railroad industry. For instance, the vast majority of the country is already fairly well served by current railroad networks. In addition, there is a significant investment required to build a rail network, limiting newcomers. In terms of regulatory barriers, the Staggers Rail Act removed many of the barriers that restricted the growth of the industry (6). Bargaining power of buyers: The bargaining power of buyers depends on the segment. In the coal segment for instance, most of the business is limited to long-term contracts with consumer 4
organizations numbering in the dozens (4). With so few destination buyers, who seem to be primarily energy utilities, they would wield great negotiating power. Thankfully, demand is fairly static. In Burlington Northern s favor, eastern countries like Japan are possible markets that can be exploited to expand their consumer base without negatively impacting their domestic customers. Threat of substitutes: The major alternatives to rail service stem from the truck freight industry. Advantages of the substitutes are primarily in their flexibility and service quality. Trucking excels in the service category due to the ability to directly deliver a fair quantity of material to a specific location that is generally not directly accessible via locomotive freight (6). Trucked freight also has a much higher on-time delivery percentage, as trucking is much more flexible, and also operates under a similar deregulated environment. Advantages of trucking also include access to publicly maintained infrastructure, with multiple routes to a single destination in the event of a delay or closure. However, with the improved service and reliability, comes drastically higher prices in the range of two to three times as much per unit weight as train based freight (6-7). Bargaining power of suppliers: Little is mentioned about suppliers. It is reasonable to assume that the railroad industry is extremely vulnerable to variations in the price of fuel and locomotive equipment & parts. Mentioned is their rigorous maintenance schedule, with daily checks and 92-day maintenance periods. Additionally, lack of installed monitoring equipment in their primarily older fleet could lead to unexpected repairs. If this occurs during a period of 5
time where parts suppliers are having some form of supply chain issue, Burlington Northern could experience significant downtime in their fleet. Competition: The industry is functionally an oligopoly. Other railroads such as Union-Pacific control their own resources and infrastructure, and compete on price and service quality. In the industry, infrastructural advantages can lead to a huge competitive advantage, for instance UP s double track and efficient engines are mentioned to have lowered costs and expanded capacity, something Burlington Northern struggles to compete with. (4) Overview of Stakeholders Business Stakeholders: Burlington Northern If the ARES project is a success, Burlington Northern stands to profit greatly over time due to lower costs, and reduced cycle time, as well as quality of service. However, the risk is moderately high, and is a significant investment for a company with such a high amount of liability. Employees of Burlington Northern The ARES project stands to employ additional personnel in supporting positions, and provides strong benefits in regularity of scheduling, which would significantly improve worker morale, as they currently work under near-perpetual on-call status. Certain employee groups would likely be reduced, referencing a potential 200-million-dollar buyout (27-28). Safety will also be improved progressively, with one consulting firm mentioning a hundred-fold improvement, due to stronger planning and advance notice 6
of line traffic, and adding sensory capability to components that currently lack such functionality. Consumer Stakeholders: Power Utilities & Coal Consumers: These consumers tend to benefit most from the ARES system, as it allows Burlington Northern to more readily supply those organizations thanks to lower cycle times. In addition, the networks capacity is increased, allowing Burlington Northern to market to foreign markets more effectively. Consumers of Perishable and Sensitive Goods (6): This category of freight is incredibly sensitive to time. Even with air conditioned cars, the low shelf-life of these products makes them vulnerable to delays, as time has an inverse correlation to freshness and product quality. Being able to ship these more effectively grants these consumers options besides truck freight. Goods like electronics are fragile, and being able to ship these more safely via freight will both lower shipping costs for the customer, as well as benefit from improved safety and maintenance of the locomotives provided by ARES. 7
Competitive Stakeholders: Other Rail-Freight Companies: Companies like Union-Pacific will be forced to respond by further improving quality of service, reducing cycle time, or reducing price. ARES enables Burlington Northern to bring in a larger amount of market share and build relationships with consumers. This puts pressure on other railways, and could potentially expedite the expansion of Burlington Northern s rail infrastructure to the west, putting other companies further at a disadvantage. Truck Freight: Being able to cannibalize truck freight with better quality and delivery reliability will have a negative effect on the Trucking industry s competiveness. However, local truck freight services may see some gain in business, particularly in the event Burlington Northern builds relationships with them to be able to deliver to a consumer s doorstep more commonly. Potential Alternative Solutions Alternative One: Partial Rollout of ARES (24-27): Alternative overview: A partial rollout of ARES would enable Burlington Northern to reap the benefits of the system where the changes are needed most, targeting routes that both benefit from reduced cycle time, better tracking capabilities, and comprise a significant share of their market. Heavy, high quantity goods benefit most in this scenario. 8
Potential business impact: As this would be a stripped-down deployment of ARES, secondary functionality such as the energy management system and LARS could be removed. This would drastically reduce the complexity of the system, and while certain benefits would be lost, the reduced cost would likely increase the return on investment of the project by focusing its benefits where they are most needed, without adding extra capabilities to less densely traveled sections of track. Consequences for stakeholders: As with the business impact, the impact here would likely resemble a scaled version of the benefits provided by a full rollout. In addition, any employee buyout would be comparatively smaller, but with a similar increase in working standard that the full rollout would provide through more consistent scheduling. Consumers of products that traverse routes operated with ARES would experience benefits similar to a full ARES rollout, while other consumers would experience a benefit proportional to the amount of time spent on an ARES line, as well as a general service improvement enabled with more accurate data. Market share would also increase, at the expense of other freight providers. Alternative Two: Reduce Scope, Invest in Infrastructure/Expansion. Alternative overview: The general goal of this alternative is to scale back ARES into a simpler system that requires less investment in infrastructure and upgrades. Building ARES to log location faster than current radio confirmation allows, perhaps each mile, rather than 9
continuously, still allows dramatic improvements in planning efficiency. To supplement this, instead of planning routes to completely avoid wait times, an investment in double width track could be made in locations where double tracks are most beneficial, or in locations where passes are common, which will reduce delays. Any remaining investment funds would be usable to pay down liabilities, or a number of other changes that could involve modernization of the Burlington Northern fleet, as well as simple policy changes, such as authorizing locomotives to skip refueling stops if sufficient fuel remains to reach the next stop safely instead of refueling each stop. Potential business impact: The primary advantage of this alternative is that improvements are made beyond simple planning and ARES specific functionality. Burlington Northern would benefit in a number of categories that enable them to better serve a diverse client base, and improve service, as well as reduce cycle time. A reduction in cycle time results in vastly improved ability to seek new markets, and increased capacity near common bottlenecks where passing occurs, as well as gradual modernization of the fleet will allow Burlington Northern to defer new engine purchases and benefit from newer technologies when they do choose to modernize their fleet. In addition, the simpler implementation of ARES will still provide benefits, and when the capabilities of technology are cheaper and more readily able to meet the needs of a large scope, it will be far cheaper to implement a full system at such a time. 10
Consequences for stakeholders: This solution has a broad impact range. Burlington Northern will be better able to compete in a variety of circumstances, particularly against other rail lines, employees will be less likely to be laid off in a buy-out, and reduced cycle times will improve service to customers. Alternative Three: Do Nothing: Alternative overview: Doing nothing would to an extent be the safe option. By changing nothing about their infrastructure for now, Burlington Northern would be in a similar place as they are currently. Potential business impact: For the time being, Burlington Northern would continue to see similar levels of fiscal prosperity, but would be severely limiting their growth by squandering investment opportunities to improve their service or expand their business. In time, they may even be eclipsed further by other industries or their competition. In addition, the conservative approach tends to squander valuable time that can be used for continuous improvement. Doing nothing would however enable them to rapidly pay down their liabilities (26), and further raise their stock price, and build a cash reserve. Consequences for stakeholders: In many ways, the stakeholder relationships would remain much the way they are now, at least Initially. Workers would remain on-call, cycle times would remain the same, and 11
other freight industries would likely continue improving to better serve the changing needs of consumers transitioning to Just-in-Time operations. Selected Option & Reasoning Selected Option: Reduce Scope, Invest in Infrastructure/Expansion This option provides broad benefits without reorganizing the entire system drastically. It is optimal, as it allows Burlington Northern to make a sound business decision in expanding for future freight needs and compete against other rail freight, better service smaller freight that relies on prompt, on-time delivery, and provides the original projected benefits of the ARES system that management initially wanted, before scope creep set in. While it is not quite as powerful at route-planning, it provides most of the benefit in that regard, with much more reported data than they currently receive, without requiring the use of GPS, but instead something similar to the technology currently employed at some streetlights, perhaps a magnetic coil beneath the track surface that detects the current location of a given vehicle. Rejected Option: Do Nothing: This option is generally poor, as doing absolutely nothing forces Burlington Northern to stagnate, rather than innovate as their competitors have managed to do. No doubt Burlington Northern would remain profitable, a strong aversion to change will gradually cause clients to lose interest and look elsewhere for services, that while slightly more expensive, will fit their business needs more closely. In essence, this option will leave Burlington Northern in the same position it is in now, unable to compete with related industries, and improve market share. 12
Rejected Option: Partial Rollout of ARES: This is actually a strong option, but carries a significant problem that holds it back. While it is less expensive than the full deployment of the ARES system as envisioned by the R&D teams, the smaller cost of the partial rollout where needed is likely more palatable to management. Where it lacks most, is that while it may enable Burlington Northern to compete from a stronger position in the medium-term, eventually their improved service will draw in extra business that pushes their current infrastructure to its limit. In this case, a complete lack of double-width track will eventually cripple the growth of Burlington Northern, reducing the growth potential an ARES deployment of any kind would provide. 13