Problems and Prospects of Agricultural Development in Karnataka

Occasional Paper-9 Problems and Prospects of Agricultural Development in Karnataka M. VIVEKANANDA National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development Mumbai 1999

Occasional Paper-9 Problems and Prospects of Agricultural Development in Karnataka ~. VIVEKANANDA National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development Mumbai 1999

.3>6' t,3 ~ ~!\G,AAj) Published by National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development, Department of Economic Analysis and Research, Jeevan Seva Complex (Annexe), S. V. Road, Santacruz (W), Mumbai - 400 054 and Printed at Karnatak Orion Press, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001.

Acknowledgements The author takes this opportunity to thank the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development for sponsoring the study and also offering valuable comments on the draft report. The author is thankful to Dr. A.K. Bandyopadhyay, Chief General Manager, DEAR, NABARD for bringing out the study as a staff paper. The author was with the Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore (ISEC) while carrying out the study and is currently with Centre for Symbiosis of Technology, Environment & Management, Bangalore (STEM). The author is thankful to the Director, ISEC for supporting the study and to Prof. B. Bhaskara Rao, Executive Director, STEM for encouraging in the preparation of the paper. M. Vivekananda

Shri M. Vivekananda, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Nagarbhavi P.O. Bangalore - 560 072. The usual disclaimer about the responsibility of the National Bank as to the facts cited and views expressed in this paper is implied.

CONTENTS Pages I. Introduction 1 II. III. IV. Performance of Agriculture in the State Economy Land Utilisation Trends in Production, Area and Productivity 2 6 14 V. Instability in Production, Area and Productivity 30 VI. VII. VIII. IX. Factors Contributing to Growth and Instability Farm Economy Institutional Support to Crop Production Capital Formation 42 53 61 67 X. Summary and Policy Implications 79

Introduction: I PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN KARNATAKA After the State reorganisation in 1955, several changes have taken place in Karnataka agriculture in terms of production, productivity and cropping pattern. As the natural endowments are not uniform in the state and differ significantly from sub-region to sub-region, it is natural to expect varied performance of agriculture across sub-regions over time. In certain subregions new crops are being introduced and the traditional crops are on the decline. Above all, the instability in crop production varies significantly across crops and sub-regions in the state. In essence, the state has more heterogeneity in crop production than homogeneity arising from its varied agro-climatic conditions.. In this paper an attempt has been made to look at Karnataka agriculture in a comprehensive way on all the important aspects which have a bearing on production and productivity of agriculture, such as, land utilisation pattern, the changes in crop composition, growth and variability in crop production and the factors influencing them, the returns to the farmers and use of inputs, institutional support for crop production and capital formation in agriculture. Regional classification of the State: The state is divided into four sub-regions by the Zonal Planning Teams constituted by Planning Commission, Government of India, based on agro-climatic features such as soil type, rainfall pattern and cropping pattern. The sub-regional classification proposed by the ZPT and accepted by the Planning Commission is followed in the study. The classification of districts by sub-regions is given below. Sub-Region 1: Belgaum, Bellary, Bijapur, Bidar, Dharwar, Gulbarga and Raichu,p Sub-Region 2 Sub-Region 3 Sub-Region 4 Bangalore, Chitradurga, Kolar and Tumkur. Mandya, Mysore and Hassan. Chikamagalur, Dakshina Kannada, Kodagu, Shimoga and UUara Kannada.

The study is based on secondary data collected from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of Karnataka, various reports and documents concerned with Karnataka agriculture and a primary investigation of farmers numbering 760 covering the four sub-regions of the State using three stage sampling procedure. A representative taluka was selected from each sub-region having the characteristics of the sub-region. They are Koppal, Kanakapura, Belur and Belthangady. Simple random selection procedure was used for selection of villages from the selected talukas and farmers from the selected villages. In the present analysis for convenience of presentation, sub-region is termed as a zone. The paper is organised into 10 sections. The performance of agriculture in the State economy is presented in Section II, land utilisation pattern in Section III, trends in production, area and productivity in Section IV, instability in production, area and productivity in section V, factors contributing to growth and instability in Section VI, farm economy dealing with returns and inputs in Section VII, institutional support to crop production in Section VIII, capital formation in section IX and summary and policy implications in Section X. II PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURE IN THE STATE ECONOMY An attempt is made in this section to compare the performance of agriculture sector in the State over time with that of all India performance based on State and National accounts statistics to bring out the relative performance of State agriculture. Further, an attempt is also made to compare the productivity of major crops of the State with that of the neighbouring states to identify the areas where the State has the relative advantage compared to the neighbouring states. Growth in Value added: The State domestic product and the National domestic product during the 60's, at constant prices, have grown at an annual compound growth of 3.3 per cent; the agricultural sector has grown at the rate of 2.3 per cent in the State and 1.1 per cent in the country (Table 2.1). In the 70's while the State domestic product has grown at the rate of 2.5 per cent and the National domestic product at the rate of 3.6 per cent, the agricultural sector has grown around 1.8 per cent both in the State as well as in the country. During the period 1980-81 to 1992-93, the State domestic product has grown at the rate of 5.4 per cent and the National product at 3.3 per cent and the agricultural sector at 2.9 per cent in the State and at 4.1 per cent 2

Table 2.1 Compound growth rates of value added at constant prices (per cent) P~riod Karnataka Agri- Non-agri- SOP culture culture India Agri- Non-Agri- NOP culture culture Constant prices : 1960-61 to 1969-70 1970-71 to 1979-80 1980-81 to 1992-93 2.34 1.84 2.90 4.67 3.37 3.39 2.55 7.03 5.41 1.14 1.78 4.14 5.10 3.32 4.95 3.57 2.99 3.33 Note : The constant prices are to the base of 1960-61, 1970-71 and 1980-81 for the three periods respectively. in the country. These growth rates show that agricultural sector has shown better performance in 60's and 70's in the State compared to all India and the picture has reversed after 1980. The reasons for the lower performance of the State in agricultural sector after 1980 compared to all India requires a probe to bring necessary state/policy interventions and make the agricultural sector an equal partner in the development of the State. Growth in value of agricultural production and inputs: The growth in value of agricultural production in the State during the period 1980-81 to 1992-93 at constant prices (State income accounts) is about 3.4 per cent whereas the growth of value of agricultural inputs during the same period is about 8.6 per cent (Table 2.2). The growth rates for all India for the same period for value of agricultural production and inputs are 4.8 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively (National income accounts). Table 2.2 Growth rates of value of agricultural production and inputs during 1980-81' to 1992-93 at constant prices Karnataka India Yalue of agricultural Production 3.4036 4.7952 Value of inputs 8.6205 6.2349 The higher growth in the value of inputs and lower growth in the value of production in the State as compared to all India could be due to the change in the cropping pattern in favour of crops which require higher inputs. 3

Productivity Differentials: The yield levels of principal crops in Karnataka may be better appreciated by the relative performance of these crop yields with the crop yields of all India as well as crop yields in the neighbouring states. Table 2.3 presents the yield levels of principal crops in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala and for all India in the year 1992-93. The table shows that food grains yield in the State is lower compared to the neighbouring states and all India. The food grains yield in the State is about 1156 kgs. per hectare whereas it is 2119 kgs. per hectare in Tamil Nadu. In the desegregated analysis of food grains, rice productivity is lower in the State compared to Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Wheat productivity in the State is about one third of the productivity in all India. The yield level of Jowar which is the main cereal crop in the State is also lower than the neighbouring states and all India. Maize is the only food grain crop which has higher productivity in the State compared to the neighbouring states and all India. Table 2.3 Yield of principal crops in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and all India in the year 1992-93 (Kgs. per hectare) CROPS Karnataka Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala All India Food Grains 1156 1665 2119 1953 1457 Rice 2331 2439 3116 2017 1744 Wheat 706 2327 JCNiar 835 864 1004 982 Bajra 573 753 1144 836 Maize 3100 2660 1676 Total Pulses 339 465 464 573 Gram 354 468 684 T... 192 238 597 652 Total Oil Seeds 635 735 1343 797 Groundnut 895 828 1486 1049 Cotton 234 242 289 257 Sugarcane 85964 71088 106977 63843 Tobacco 906 1363 1452 1425 In the yield levels of Total oil seeds, the State is lagging behind the neighbouring States and all India. But, in the yield levels of groundnut the performance of the State is better than Andhra Pradesh. In the yield levels of other crops viz., cotton and tobacco, the State is behind the yield levels of neighbouring states and all India. In commercial crops, sugarcane appears to be the only crop whose yield level is higher than all India and Andhra Pradesh. All these suggest that the State does not seem to have 4

any relative advantage in yield levels in most of the crops. Maize and sugarcane appears to be the only two crops which have some relative advantage in yield levels in the State. The lower yields of the crops in the State could not be solely attributed to the farming inefficiency in the State; it could also arise due to the differences in the factor endowments as well as natural endowments. Table 2.4 presents the percentage of area irrigated under each crop in the four states and all India. The table shows that about 20 per cent of the area under food grains is under irrigation in the State as against 36.7 per cent in all India, 40 per cent in Kerala and about 53 per cent in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The irrigated area under rice in the State is 64 per cent and it is as high as 94 per cent and 92 per cent in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu respectively. Irrigated wheat accounts for about 35 per cent in the State as against 82.9 per cent in all India. The lower yield rates in rice, wheat and total food grains in the State could be on account of lower level of ir~igation under these crops. Table 2.4 Percentage of area under irrigation by crops in 1992-93 CROPS Karnataka Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala All India Food Grains 19.9 53.1 35.5 40.0 36.7 Rice 64.0 94.0 92.0 42.3 46.0 Wheat 35.4 82.9 Jowar 7.4 1.6 7.4 6.4 Bajra 9.0 15.6 9.3 6.2 Maize 70.7 29.3 22.3 Total Pulses 3.8 1.3 6.3 10.8 Gram 14.3 3.1 24.5 Tur 1.8 0.3 0.9 5.5 Total Oil Seeds 21.4 18.2 34.2 23.9 Groundnut 23.9 20.6 30.8 20.1 Cotton 24.9 13.2 34.5 33.1 Sugarcane 100.0 98.3 100.0 83.5 Tobaoco 1.9 26.2 100.0 38.6 Maize appears to be the only cereal crop which has higher percentage of irrigated area (70.7 per cent) in the State compared to Andhra Pradesh (29.3 per cent) and all India (22.3 per cent). The State also enjoys higher yield rates in the crop. Sugarcane appears to be the only crop grown completely under irrigated conditions in the State as well as in Tamil Nadu. The yield of sugarcane in the State is higher than the yield levels in Andhra Pradesh and all India. The higher yields in the State in maize and sugarcane thus could be due to higher level of irrigation under the crops. 5

Irrigated area under tobacco is very low in the State compared to Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and all India and the lower yield for tobacco in the State could be due to the low level of irrigation under the crop. Such a direct relationship between irrigation level and yield level is not found in the crops like jowar, bajra, pulses and oil seeds. On the whole, irrigation appears to be a factor in explaining yield differences of crops in the State compared to neighbouring states and all India. (~arnataka III LAND UTILISATION State shares about 6.3 per cent geographical area of the country. )In the State, Zone I, Zone II, Zone III and Zone IV account for 46.8 per cent, 19.3 per cent, 12.6 per cent, and 21.3 per cent of state area respectively. These percentages show that among Zones, Zone I is the largest and Zone III is the smallest in geographical area. (. In 1991-92 the net sown area in the State is about 55.6 per cent of the geographical area and it has not increased over time. The share of net sown area in geographrcal area is much higher in the State than in India (about 47 per cent).) Within the Zones in the State, Zone I has the highest percentage of net ~own area with 71.5 per cent followed by Zone II with 53.5 per cent, Zone III with 47.7 per cent and Zone IV with 27.2 per cent (Tables 3.1 to 3.3). Though Zone I has the highest percentage of net sown area, the share has declined from its 1956-57 level, whereas in other Zones the percentage ot net sown area increased over time. The decline in the share of net sown area in Zone I has come through the increase of current fallow from 3.6 per cent to 8.1 per cent over the three and half decades. r Much of the increase in the current tallows has come dwing 70's and it could be attributed to the 1974 tenancy Act of the State. The zone has higher percentage of big land holdings compared to the other Zones; The big landholders appear to have preferred to keep the land fallow rather than leasing out the land on account of the fear of loosing land in the wake of the tenancy act. The area sown more than once increased in the State from 1.8 per cent in 1956-57 to 8.2 per cent in 1991-92, the corresponding increase in all India is from 6.1 per cent to 13.8 per cent. Much of the increase in area sown more than once in the State has come after 1980-81, whereas there was a steady increase in all India after 1970-71. Coming to share :icross zones, Zone I has the higher share of area sown more than once (10.7 per cent) compared to the other Zones. 6

, About 6 per cent of the area in the State is under current fallow which is one per cent more than in all India. Across zones, the current fallow is the least in Zone IV with 1.3 per cent, Zone II and Zone III depict the State average and only Zone I is having about 8 per cent. The current fallow in Zone I increased from 3.6 per cent in 1956-57 to 8.1 per cent in 1991-92. The percentage of area under pasture and grazing land in the State is on the higher side (5.7 per cent) compared to all India (3.8 per cent). Across zones in the State, the percentage of area under pasture and grazing land is higher in Zone II with 10.7 per cent followed by Zone IV with 8.9 per cent and the percentage is the least in Zone J with 1.7. The barren and un~cultivable land and cultivable waste land is lower in the State (6.5 per cent) compared to all India (9.5 per cent). Among the zones in the State, this percentage is lowest in Zone I (4.5 per cent). The forest area in the State is about 16 per cent which is lower than the all India percentage of 22.4. The share of forest area increased by 1.5 percentage points in the State during the 35 years compared to an increase of 4.7 percentage points in all India. In the zones of the State, the share of forest area increased from 37 per cent to 42.3 per cent in Zone IV, it remained around 17 per cent in Zone III and around 7 per cent in Zone I and Zone II. The State thus differs from all India in land utilisation pattern mainly in net sown area, area sown more than once and in forest area. The State has higher share in net area sown and lower share both in area Land use pattern - Table 3.1 Karnataka and all India (based on three year average) (per cent) Karnataka all India Classification 1956-57 1970-71 1980-81 1991-92 1956-57 1970-71 1980-81 1991-92 Forest 14.4893 15.2034 15.8014 16.0954 17.7025 21.3811 21.4760 22.4269 Land put to non agri. use 4.2067 4.9693 5.5840 6.2549 4.6528 5.3582 6.2163 7.0572 Barren and un-cultivable land 4.7171 4.4721 4.4651 4.1887 11.4848 9.7890 6.4135 4.5544 Cultivable waste land 3.5101 3.2319 2.6218 2.3276 7.4032 5.4112 5.2857 4.9816 Pasture & grazing land 9.6345 8.5088 6.9594 5.7128 4.1584 4.3366 3.8378 3.8350 Land under Misc, Trees, Crops 2.0518 1.6337 1.7682 1.6625 2.0173 1.3971 1.1280 1.2285 Current fallow 4.3452 4.6260 6.0664 5.8602 4.1604 3.4605 7.7901 5.6743 Other fallow land 2.9002 3.2851 3.3421 2.2759 4.2184 2.9204-3.1500 3.2745 Net area sown 54.1451 54.0697 53.3916 55.6221 44.2021 45.9459 44.7025 46.9674 Area suwn more than once 1.7934 3.2362 4.2976 8.1938 6.0837 7.8617 10.4335 13.n16. 7

Land use pattern - Table 3.2 Zone I and Zone II (based on three year average) (per cent) Zone I Zone II Classification 1956-57 1970-71 1980-81 1991-92 1956-57 1970-71 1980-81 1991-92 Forest 6.6156 6.9165 6.9573 7.2664 8.0899 7.6201 7.7032 7.8675 Land put to non-agri. use 2.3016 3.4675 3.7863 4.4965 6.2731 6.8476 7.7227 8.3730 Barren and un-cuhivable land 4.1458 3.8375 3.6235 3.3618 4.9531 5.2820 6.0586 5.6284 Cultivable waste land 1.8126 1.3371 1.3690 1.1435 3.3854 4.3179 3.4682 3.1376 Pasture & grazing land 2.7298 2.5193 2.0557 1.6814 19.2572 15.9179 12.7546 10.6753 Land under Msc, Trees, Crops 0.3755 0.5866 0.6441 0.4091 1.8361 1.7044 1.9460 2.1117 Current fallow 3.6317 4.3457 7.4971 8.1533 6.2630 8.2292 8.8656 5.8743 Other fallow land 2.5949 2.6326 3.5573 1.9241 4.2959 4.8714 3.2645 2.7945 Net area sown 75.7924 74.3572 70.5097 71.5638 45.6462 45.2096 48.2167 53.5376 Area. sown more than once 1.4453 2.5048 3.8922 10.6661 1.6323 2.7859 3.6754 5.9173 Land use pattern - Table 3.3 Zone III and Zone IV (based on three year average) (per cent) Zone III Zone IV Classification 1956-57 1970-71 1980-81 1991-92 1956-57 1970-71 1980-81 1991-92 Forest 15.9798 16.3575 17.1012 17.2364 36.9557 39.8375 42.0395 42.3268 Land put to non-agri. use 6.2825 6.9467 8.1294 9.0593 5.5211 5.4281 6.1469 6.5279 Barren and un-cuhivable land 5.2687 5.1105 5.4358 4.9768 5.4871 4.7675 4.3262 4.2288 Cultivable waste land 5.6114 5.3354 4.2520 3.9611 6.2680 5.2110 3.6808 3.2238 Pasture & grazing land 16.4210 13.2249 11.2313 7.6721 12.9328 12.2842 10.1194 8.9008 Land under Msc, Trees, Crops 0.5837 0.9547 0.8396 0.8718 6.8150 4.2965 4.6655 4.4811 Curreol. fallow 7.0784 4.2807 4.4294 5.0442 2.7521 2.1711 1.32n 1.2878 01her faiicnw land 1.8461 4.0736 3.3019 3.4886 2.9426 2.8245 2.9563 1.8566 Net area sown 40.9283 43.7160 45.2794 47.6897 20.3255 23.1797 24.73n 27.1664 Area. sown more than once 2.2005 6.1043 8.0723 7.8781 2.4913 3.5781 3.5160 5.0145 sown more than once and in forest area compared to all India. Among the zones in the State, there are significant differences in land use pattern. There is a clear contrast between Zone I and Zone IV and certain similarities between Zone II and Zone '" in land use pattern, I Cropping Pattern: The changes in the cropping pattern in Karnataka and India for four points of time are presented in Table 3.4. The data presented in this and the subsequent tables are based on triennium averages centred at 1955-56, 1970-71, 1980-81 and 1991-92. The Study covered 23 crops and they account for about 83.7 per cent of the gross cropped area in the State in the year 1955-56 and it has increased to 90.5 per cent by 1991-92. At the 8

all India level these crops- account for ab~t 85 per cent of the gross cropped area. The area under total cereals in the State declined from 56.5 per cent in 1955-56 to about 45 per cent in 1991-92. The decline has come mainly from jowar and bajra crops. Area under jowar declined from 25.5 per cent to 17.8 per cent and bajra area declined from 5.1 per cent to about 3 per cent. The area under rice increased by two percentage points from 8.7 per cent to 10.7 per cent between 1955-56 and 1970-71 and it continued to be around the same level after 1970-71. Wheat is not a significant crop in the State and only about 1.8 per cent of area is under the crop. The area under ragi increased from 8.6 per cent to 10.1 per cent during 1955-56 to 1980-81 and decreased to the 1955-56 level in 1991-92. Maize is a new entrant to the State's cropping system. Area under maize increased from 0.1 per cent to 2.5 per cent over the 36 years. Though there is a decline in the proportion of area under interior cereals, they continue to be the dominant cereal crops in the State. At the all India level the area under rice is around 23 per cent and the area under wheat increased from 8.5 per cent to 13.2 per cent. In all India, the superior cereals rice and wheat, are the dominant crops under cereal group. The area under total cereals in all India decreased from 59.2 per cent to 54.5 per cent. This comparison shows that the decline in cereal area in the State is much faster than the all India level and in the cereal group inferior cereals dominate in the State and superior cereals are the dominant crops at all India level., Area under pulses fluctuated around 13 per cent in the State and it has declined from 15.6 per cent to 12.9 per cent at all India level. The area under total oil seeds in the State increased from 12 per cent to 24.4 per cent and the entire increase has come after 1980-81. The area under groundnut is around 10 per cent. Sunflower is a new crop to the State. The area under sunflower increased from 1 per cent in 1980-81 to 10.2 per cent in 1991-92. In all India the area under total oil seeds increased from 8.4 per cent to 14.1 per cent. The area under groundnut is around 4.6 per cent and sunflower is around 1 per cent. The State thus has an important place in oilseeds particularly in groundnut and sunflower. Cotton, an important commercial crop of the State _presents a dismal picture. The area under the crop has come down from 10.2 per cent to 4.9 per cent and much of the decline has come after 1980-81. In all India, the area under the crop declined by about one percentage point from 5.4 per cent. The area under coconut increased from 0.9 per cent to 2 per cent in the State. whereas in all India its share is less than one per cent. 9

To sum up, the cropping pattern in the State differs from all India in cereal composition and shifted to non cereal crops in a big way after 1980-81. Table 3.4 Percentage distribution of area under major crops - Karnataka and All India (Based on three year moving averages) Crops Rice Wheat Jowar Bajra Ragi Maize Total Cereals Gram Tur Total Pulses Groundnut Sesamum Safftower Sunflower Total Oil Seeds Cotton Sugarcane Chillies Tobacco Coconut Arecanut Banana Citrus Mango Coffee Mulberry Karnataka All India 56-57 70-71 80-81 91-92 56-57 70-71 80-81, 91-92 8.6788 10.7052 10.4117 10.8634 21.7100 23.1031 22.7916 22.9304 2.9142 3.2152 3.1668 1.8033 8.4993 11.0387 13.0690 13.1787 25.4565 21.0362 19.0358 17.7642 11.5011 10.7832 9.5586 7.2286 5.1062 5.1571 5.6751 2.9781 7.6266 7.5993 6.4120 5.4709 8.6440 9.6834 10.1487 8.7086 1.5819 1.5698 1.4705 1.1588 0.1039 0.5937 1.3995 2.5040 2.6055 3.5528 3.3451 3.2441 56.4612 55.3244 53.-2795 44.9737 59.2136 62.0961 59.7822 54.4789 1.5466 1.5355 1.3178 1.9018 6.4487 4.8038 4.2840 3.3544 2.7987 2.7475 3.3141 3.6015 1.5681 1.5698 1.6674 1.9586 12.6368 13.2644 14.1878 13.5894 15.6043 1.3.6350 13.2716 12.8783 8.8040 9.2400 7.7403 10.5291 3.8598 4.4888 4.1987 4.5975 0.7756 1.0168 1.0923 1.4818 1.4582 1.3837 1.3990 1.4981 1.4815 1.3471 0.3610 0.4357 0.3687 1.0005 10.2248 0.0478 0.1548 1.0657 12.0839 12.6830 12.5647 24.3902 8.4133 9.9583 10.3212 14.1457 10.2105 10.2334 9.3135 4.8857 5.4490 4.7289 4.6311 4.1103 0.5213 0.9774 1.5036 2.3168 1.3487 1.5861 1.7635 1.9604 1.0272 1.0155 1.3996 1.3648 0.4143 0.4534 0.4771 0.4683 0.3873 0.3511 0.4361 0.4714 0.2684 0.2745 0.2641 0.2251 0.8609 1.2275 1.5930 2,0164 0.4473 0.6479 0.6392 0.8477 0.2928 0.3952 0.4966 0.5482 0.0915 0.1032 0.1059 0.1115 0.3525 0.2739 0.2820 0.1870 0.4186 0.4493 0.1666 0.2037 0.6133 0.7437 1.0343 1.1865 0.0716 0.0831 0.1228 0.1012 1.0726 1.2902 83.7311 84.3596 86.5312 90.4930 85.3342 88.0864 86.1691 84.4614 Cropping pattern by zones: The cropping pattern presented in Table 3.5 for Zone I shows that jowar is a major cereal crop of the Zone accounting about 34.3 per cent of gross cropped area in the year 1956-57 and it has come down to 26.4 per cent by 1991-92. Rice and maize are the two cereal crops which gained area. Under pulses, tur gained its share from 2.9 per cent to 5.1 10

Table 3.5 Percentage distribution of area under major crops - Zone I. and Zone II (Based on three year moving averages) Crops Rice Wheat Jowar Bajra Rag; Maize Total CeteaIs Gram Tur Total Pulses Groundnut Sesamum Safflower Sunftower Total 0;1 Seeds Cotton Sugarcane Chillies Tobacco Coconut Arecanut Banana Citrus Mango icoffee imulberry :Total Zone I Zone II 56-57 70-71 80-81 91-92 56-57 70-71 80-81 91-92 3.0394 3.7946 4.1101 5.2382 6.1137 9.2789 8.6672 8.0228 4.3855 5.0575 5.1851 2.9786 0.0275 0.1149 0.0536 0.0263 34.3365 28.7719 27.1802 26.3841 9.0635 8.1399 6.3145 4.3182 6.9443 7.5074 8.7416 4.7212 3.0400 2.5005 1.9914 0.6104 0.5855 0.6482 0.9816 0.5014 33.0349 33.5328 33.3155 26.9435 0.1515 0.5077 1.5736 2.7740 0.0215 1.1301 1.7518 2.9194 53.9133 51.1124 51.4523 43.0246 64.5834 63.8273 58.2122 43.3067 2.1226 2.2241 2.0752 2.9653 0.2556 0.2661 0.1105 0.2177 2.9035 3.6025 4.7950 5.1471 4.0912 1.8906 1.5163 1.9432 11.2684 13.0334 14.5239 15.1141 16.8810 14.7624 13.9693 10.5215 11.1262 11.5771 8.9710 9.2445 6.4848 8.2046 10.2064 23.1822 0.7456 1.1904 1.2655 0.7804 0.7001 0.6495 2.3672 2.4095 2.1781 0.0214 0.0584 0.1623 1.5069 14.6297 '0.2993 4.7470 15.0517 15.9912 15.5630 28.6553 8.5802 10.2547 12.4596 30.0718 14.4213 15.2753 14.4227 0.3904 0.8284 1.4838 0.9727 0.9219 1.5771 6.3009 3.2304 2.6202 1.9403 1.5329 2,5398 0.5285 0.8405 0.9239 0.6974 1.8701 0.9080 0.9208 0.7972 0.5343 0.3480 0.3865 0.4233 0.3640 0.2321 0.2454 0.0954 0.0347 0.0098 0.0136 0.0202 0.0516 2.2384 3.1639 3.9719 5.0345 0.0018 0.0032 0.0030 0.0030 0.2956 0.4119 0.4991 0.4400 0.1231 0.1037 0.0576 0.0660 0.1284 0.1529 0.0642 0.0967 0.2156 0.3920 0.0577 0.0436 1.3705 1.3560 1.9862 2.9552 81.9445 82.2737 85.3967 91.9872 91.7132 90.8511 90.0874 89.9130 per cent. Oil seeds appears to be the major beneficiary in gaining area in the Zone. Most of the gain in area has come after 1980-81 and it appears that the gain is at the expense of area under cotton. The area under total oil seeds increased from 15.6 per cent in 1980-81 to 28.7 per cent in 1991-92; whereas in the corresponding time span the area under cotton decreased from 14.2 per cent to 6.3 per cent. The oil seeds crop that gained substantial area is sunflower. Sunflower is non existing in the Zone in the year 1970-71. It appeared in the Zone with 1.5 per cent area in the year 1980-81 and increased to 14.6 per cent in 1991-92. Sugarcane is also becoming a crop of the Zone. The area under sugarcane increased from 0.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent over time. Thus Zone I shows significant 11

change in the cropping pattern with traditional crops like jowar and cotton losing their area and sunflower made an entry into the Zone in a big way. The other crops that gained area are rice, sugarcane, maize and tur. The major cereal crop in Zone II is ragi. The crop had a share of 33 per cent in gross cropped area up to 1980-81 and later declined to 26.9 per cent (Table 3.5). The decline in the share over time is also noticeable in jowar and bajra. The decline in jowar is from 9 per cent to 4.3 per cent and il) bajra it is from 3 per cent to 0.6 per cent. The area under rice continued around 8 per cent. Maize is a new crop to this Zone and it accounts for about 2.9 per cent of area in 1991-92. In the Zone, cereals as a group declined from 64.6 per cent to 43.3 per cent. The Zone experienced decline in area under pulses from 16.9 per cent to 10.5 per cent and increase in area under oilseeds from 8.6 per cent to 30 per cent. Much of the increase in oilseeds area has come from groundnut. The area under groundnut increased from 6.5 per cent to 23.2 per cent and this increase mainly has come after 1980-81. Under garden crops, the area under coconut has increased from 2.2 per cent to 5 per cent and the area under mulberry has increased from about 2 per cent in 1980-81 to about 3 per cent in 1991-92. There is no significant area under fruit crops in the Zone. The Zone thus shows decline in area both in cereal and pulses and increase in area under oilseeds and garden crops like coconut and mulberry. Under oilseeds, groundnut is an important crop in the Zone. The cropping pattern of Zone II differs from Zone I in the composition of cereal crops as well as oilseeds. Zone III has not lost area under cereals in a big way like Zone I and Zone II. The cropping pattern in Zone III is presented in Table 3.6. The table shows that 51.5 per cent of area is under cereals in the Zone. Among cereals, ragi is an important crop with 25.4 per cent of area followed by rice with about 18 per cent of area and jowar with 6.4 per cent of area. The area under jowar has slightly declined from 9.4 per cent to 6.4 per cent and area under rice increased from 14.1 per cent to about 18 per cent. There is not much of- change in the percentage of area under ragi over time. There is a decline in pulses area from 19.9 per cent to 17.2 per cent and increase in oilseed area from 6 per cent to 9.8 per cent. The Zone witnessed increase in area under cotton, sugarcane, tobacco and coconut. The area under cotton increased from 0.9 per cent to 3.5 per cent, sugarcane increased from 1.1 per cent to 4.2 per cent, tobacco increased from 1.3 per cent to 2.1 per cent and coconut increased from 2.7 per cent to 5.3 per cent. The area under mulberry remained around 5.8 per cent. Thus the changes in the cropping pattern in this Zone are not substantial. Whatever gain or loss in area by crops is by few percentage points. 12

Table 3.6 Percentage distribution of area under major crops - Zone III and Zone IV (Based on three year moving averages) Crops Zone III Zone IV 56-57 70-71 80-81 91-92 56-57 7G-71 80-81 91-92 Rice 14.1347 15.9915 14.3735 17.9774 50.4907 51.3246 45.8302 39.9875 Wheat 0.0050 0.0148 0.0051 0.0049 0.0263 0.0399 0.0308 0.0309 Jowar 9.3864 10.1085 8.3851 6.3574 4.6000 4.7456 4.2773 3.6285 Bajra 0.1975 0.1349 0.1329 0.2124 0.0288 0.0175 0.0075 0.0005 Ragi 26.4716 28.6284 25.3937 25.3702 6.8738 7.5638 8.4469 7.0770 Maize 0.6880 1.0928 1.5755 0.1628 0.1389 t.2419 Total CeteaII 54.0063 58.3066 50.0896 51.5290 63.6107 65.0368 59.4162 52.0004 Gram 0.5834 0.4553 0.2109 0.3284 0.5255 0.4022 0.1162 0.3708 Tur 1.6443 1.1601 0.9587 1.1277 0.8574 0.4358 0.2472 0.2417 Total Pulses 19.8925 18.5831 20.9531 17.1552 7,7316 6.4466 4.9761 6.5139 Groundnut 2.9596 3.7853 2.8487 4.3383 1.4861 2.0115 1.9297 2.8353 Sesamum 1.0713 0.8499 1.3242 0.6341 0.7104 0.6252 Safflower 0.0030 0.0437 0.0076 0.0083 0.0513 Sunflower 0.2025 2.9139 0.0864 2.1809 Total Oil Seeds 6.0808 5.9593 5.5923 9.7656 2.1814 2.9285 2.9775 5.8818 Cotton 0.9391 0.7869 0.8373 3.4900 0.6023 0.8766 1.0660 4.0002 Sugarcane 1.1179 2.0314 2.8308 4.1545 0.8788 0.9938 1.0884 1.8984 Chillies 1.1965 0.9560 1.0262 0.3412 1.4816 1.8326 1.7751 0.9719 Tobacco 1.2895 0.6005 1.0892 2.0759 0.0259 0.0236 0.3411 0.1619 Cooonut 2.7408 3.5561 4.2715 5.2605 2.8572 3.2522 3.8738 4.6559 II.recanut 0.2349 0.2139 0.2211 0.2117 2.5596 3.0689 3.6982 4.1401 Banana 0.5213 0.3684 1.7353 0.9351 Citrus 0.2459 0.1701 2.0113 1.1255 Mango 0.2790 0.4325 0.7020 0.6084 Colfee 1.1749 1.1613 1.5216 1.6519 5.8018 6.2457 8.2698 9.3725 Mulberry 5.8468 5.8372 0.1135 0.5301 Total 84.7584 87.5982 89.9958 93.4815 81.7119 83.5076 83.4063 79.9998 Zone IV is mainly a rice growing area. Though over time the share of area under rice has come down from 50.5 per cent to about ~O per cent, the absolute area under rice has not decreased significantly ~Table 3.6). The other important cereal crops in the Zone are ragi and jowar. Ragi accounts for about 7 per cent of area and jowar accounts for 3.6 per cent of area. Though the percentage of area under total cereals decreased f~m 63.6 per cent to 52 per cent, the absolute area under total cereals increased from 579 thousand hectares to 680 hectares. The area under pulses remained around 6 per cent, whereas the area under oilseeds increased from 2.2 per cent to 5.9 per cent. Cotton appears to be a new antrant to this Zone. Its share has increased from 0.6 per cent to 4 per 13

cent. The other crops that gained area are sugarcane, garden crops viz., coconut and arecanut, and coffee, the plantation crop. The increase in area in the case of sugarcane, coconut and arecanut is around 1 to 2 percentage points, whereas in the case of coffee, its share has increased from 5.8 per cent to 9.4 per cent. Thus the cropping pattern in the Zone appears to be changing towards multi crop system from a mono crop rice system. Crops like cotton, coconut, arecanut, plantation crop and coffee gained area and became important crops of the Z-ene. To sum up, the cropping pattern of the State is inferior cereal - oriented and changing towards non-cereal crops particularly after 1980-81. Maize and sunflower are the two new crops which entered the cropping pattern of the State. Within the State the cropping pattern significantly differs by zones. In the cropping pattern the composition of cereals also differ by zones. Zone I is jowar based, Zone II and Zone III are ragi based and Zone IV is rice based. Sunflower has come in a big way in Zone I and groundnut in Zone II. Zone IV is turning to multi-crop system from mono crop system. There is no significant change in cropping pattern in Zone III. IV TRENDS IN PRODUCTION, AREA AND PRODUCTIVITY In this section the compound growth rates for production, area for each crop by zones for the total period of 39 years (1955-56 to 1993-94) and separately for three sljq_tim~ periods. 1955-56 to _1969-70, 1970-71 to 1979-80 and 1980-81 to 1993-94 are presented. The productivity growth rates 'can be derived from growth rates of production and area. Certain crops might have experienced a shift in the productivity level during--'ate sixtle. rom the adopiion-oftl1e new1echnology. Generalty--the period Tip --{o-i966=6ilsconsidered as the--pre-green revolution period. The present analysis has departed from the generally used periodisation as the adoption of the new technology isa9~t ~rjform in terms of the time point of its adoption across crops and.t&tle~~'-'rhe adoption of new technology is identified by taking into account the shift in the productivity levels of each crop in each zone through regression method using a dummy variable. The shift in productivity might have come in anyone of the years during 1966-67 to 1970-71. To identify this year, the crop productivity data from 1955-56 to 1979-80 is regressed on time and dummy variable for the shift. Five regressions are worked out changing dummy variable in each regression to represent the year of shift in productivity between 1966-67 to 1970-71. The year is identified based on the statistical significance of the dummy variable in the regressions. If the dummy variable is statistically significant in more than one regression then the year is determined by the standard error of 14

the residuals of these regressions and the regression with the minimum standard error for the residuals is considered as the best fit and the shift is explained by the dummy variable of that regression. Non significance of dummy variable in all the five regressions imply. that there is no shift in the productivity of the crop during 1966-67 to 1970-71. Table 4.1 presents the year in which productivity shift has taken place for each crop by zones and the State. The table shows that the year in which the shift has taken place in productivity of a crop varied across zones. This brings out the point that the year of adoption of the new technology for various crops was not uniform within a zone and for the same crop it varied across zones in the State. Hence, the pre-green revolution period (1955-56 to 1966-67) varies across crops and zones in the present analysis. Consequently, the span of the second period also changes. For example, if the shift in productivity of a crop appears to have taken place from 1968-69, then the pre-green revolution period is reckoned as 1955-56 to 1967-68 and the green revolution period from 1968-69 to 1979-80. The year that is presented in Table 4.1 refers to the beginning year of the Table 4.1 The beginning year of the green revolution period by crops and zones Crop Zone I Zone II Zone III Zone IV State Bajra 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 Jowar 70-71 68-69 70-71 68-69 70-71 Maize 68-69 68-69 70-71 70-71 68-69 Ragi 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 Rice 68-69 70-71 68-69 68-69 68-69 Wheat 68-69 69-70 70-71 70-71 68-69 Total Cereals 70-71 70-71 70-71 68-69 68-69 Gram. 70-71 66-67 70-71 70-71 70-71 Tut 70-71 67-68 70-71 70-71 70-71 Total Pulses 70-71 69-70 70-71 68-69 70-71 Groundnut 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 Safflower 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 Total Oil Seeds 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 Sugarcane 70-71 66-67 70-71 70-71 66-67 Coconut 70-71 70-71 67-68 66-67 70-71 Arecanut 70-71 70-71 70-71 66-67 70-71 Cotton 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 Chillies 70-71 70-71 68-69 68-69 70-71 Tobacco 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 70-71 Coffee 70-71 70-71 70-71 -.,...,",- UHIVCtlSITY (f,-,'-.j!. --:~,... -~_, ~; II' t.,::ts 15 u,~ ;~. ;:..~-,; :'".,.~ { I eitvk. ba~~~~c~i-55006l ~--, I Rpi_ 12900

green revolution period. If no shift in productivity level is observed prior to 1970-71, the end year of the pre-green revolution period is taken as 1969-70 and the beginning of the second period (green revolution period) is taken as 1970-71. If the second period starts for a crop from 1970-71 then it is obvious that the crop has not experienced technological change prior to 1970-71. It can be observed from Table 4.1 that the shift in productivity at the State has come prior to 1970-71 in total cereals and sugarcane. The shift in total cereals has come through rice, wheat and maize in the year 1968-69. The shift in productivity total cereal in Zone IV appears to have reflected at state level. Rice is a dominant crop of Zone IV and there is a shift in productivity in that crop in that Zone. In addition there are shifts in productivity for maize in Zone I and Zone II, jowar in Zone II and Zone IV and wheat in Zone I. The cumulative affect of these shifts in the productivity of these cereal crops in different zones resulted in shift in cereal productivity in the State in the year 1968-69.. There is a shift in productivity of sugarcane in Zone " in the year 1966-67 which in turn is reflected at state level. In the other crops viz., iowar, gram, tur, coconut, arecanut and chillies though there are shifts in productivity in certain zones they are not rehected at state level. For example, there is shift in productivity in tur in Zone " which has not reflected at state level. This may happen when the crop has a lower share of area in the zone. Zone II accounts only about 11 per cent of tur area in the State. The green revolution of late sixties in India based on new seed, fertiliser and irrigation has come mainly in wheat crop. The shift in productivity of crops in the State other than wheat (in late sixties) could not be attributed to the green revolution as high yielding variety seeds were not popular for most of the crops in the State in late sixties. The productivity shift for these crops might have come with local seeds through introduction of irrigation. Trends in crop production in the State : The growth rates of production and area by crops for the State are presented in Table 4.2. The table shows that cereal production in the State has grown at 2.13 per cent per annum during the period 1955-56 to 1993-94. The entire growth is contributed by yield and the area contribution is negative. The area contribution to production growth is positive only in the first period (1955-56 to 1967-68). Out of the three sub-periods the production growth is highest in the second period (2.6 per cent). Coming to the 16

growth rates of production of individual cereal crops. jowar has shown higher growth rate (3.57 per cent) in the first period; wheat (5.64 per cent). bajra (6.03 per cent). and ragi (6.6 per cent) in the second period; rice (2.39 per cent) in the third period. It is only maize which has shown high growth rates in all the three periods. The growth rate of maize ranged from 7.9 per cent in the third period to 11 per cent in the second period. Much of the growth of production of bajra in second period and maize in all the periods is contributed by area. The growth in cereal production in the third period appears to be interesting. The growth in cereal production from 1980-81 to 1990-91 is only 0.0116. This lower growth or stagnation in production worried the State administration and a committee was appointed to go into the stagnation of cereal production in the State. But, the growth in production from 1980-81 to 1993-94 is about 1.78 per cent and the entire growth in production has come through productivity growth. The growth in the production in the third period has come from the increase in cereal productivity during the last three years viz. after 1990-91.... The State experienced growth of 1.79 per cent in pulse production for the( total period and 2.71 per cent for the second period. Gram and tur are (esponsible for the growth of total pulses in the State. The yield growth of gram is around 3 per cent in the first and second periods. The yield growth of tur is about 2.8 per cent in the first period and about 4 per cent in the second period. The State performance is as impressive in oilseeds production. The break through in oilseeds production has come in the third period. Sunflower and groundnut are the major oilseed crops responsible for the production growth. The production of sunflower has grown at 22.53 per cent and groundnut at 6.07 per cent. The growth in production of sunflower is contributed by area and the growth in production of groundnut is contributed by yield (1.91 per cent) and area (4.07 per cent). The growth in the production of cotton has declined in first and second periods and showed an increase in the third period with 2.55 per cent. The growth in production in the third period in the State has come despite considerable negative growth (4.49 per cent) in area. Sugarcane has shown an impressive growth in production in first period (9.16 per cent) and third period (5.92 per cent). Much of the growth in production has come through area increase. In the State considerable growth in chillies has come in the third period (3.67 per cent) and much of it is contributed by productivity (3.2 per cent). Tobacco production has 17

Table 4.2 Compound growth rates of crop production and area by periods Karnataka State Crops Production Area Total I.~ II III Total II III Period «~ :,'i Period ~#"I.( "I Rice 2.2132 1.8422 0.4761 2.3928 0.6048 2.3007-0.5189 1.1716 (11.7221) (2.1126) (0.4509) (3.1643) (6.6012) (9.9329) (-1.2592) (3.1130) Wheat 2.7324 0.6789 5.6394-2.1120-0.6307-0.5425 1.4147-3.8753 (4.7538) (0.3134) (2.9199) (-1.4717) (-2.7659) (-1.0814) (3.7680) (-6.4145) Jewar 1.2621 3.5712 1.0847 0.4960-0.8417-0.S073-2.5696 0.0624 (6.2391) (6.1308) (0.6211) (0.5785) (-5.4484) (-1.0797) (-3.5437) (0.1202) Bajra 2.1938 2.9788 6.0299-1.3859-0.4684 0.1997 4.1493-3.9730 (5.4490) (2.5790) (1.6702) (-1.0679) (-1.8631) (0.6687) (2.5796) (-5.5984) Ragi 2.1665-3.1316 6.6029 1.1379 0.4380 0.8829 1.0877-0.1557 (5.7345) (-2.1915) (2.6806) (1.0905) (5.7083) (3.1539) (1.5813) (-0.4839) Maize 15.5251 9.5090 11.0008 7.8961 10.7607 8.7450 11.2249 6.2556 (15.3036) (4.3011) (6.5084) (9.4930) (23.5505) (5.7193) (18.9424) (12.6826) Total Cereals 2.1322 1.3732 2.6011 1.7827, -0.2884 0.6538-0.3651-0.5131 (11.6493) (1.7581) (2.4991~ (2.4297) (-5.1315) (2.8916) (-1.2067) (-2.1147) Gram 1.7974 3.6253 3.4247 3.1261 1.0163 0.2827 0.2556 4.40n (4.4877) (4.1672) (0.6273) (2.1839) (5.2035) (0.6610) (0.3092) (4.5054) Tur 1.9453 3.0414 6.4988-1.2547 1.4217 0.2077 2.3917 1.8880 (5.1951) (2:9961) (2.2231) (-0.n85) (8.5690) (0.9968) (2.1855) (2.5565) Total Pulses 1.7899 1.0062 2.7062 0.7759 0.8310-0.2399 0.6316 0.4386 (7.8021) (2.7189) (1.5924) (0.9713) (11.7903) (-1.3117) (1.3034) (1.4443) Groundnut 1.5519 0.10n -3.0092 6.0659 0.6474 0.2050-2.0877 4.0720 (4.9887) (0.1170) (-1.1489) (6.7922) (4.0991) (0.7957) (-2.9298) (10.4284) Sesamum 7.1655 3.5552 3.9754 1.5863 (1.0605) (1.8235) (3.1953) (1.3n4) Safflower 2.7443-0.2557-2.0380-0.4725 (0.6818) (-0.1423) (:-1.4658) (-0.3118) Sunllower 22.5271 24.5404 (5.3817) (6.8558) Total Oil Seeds 2.7382 0.1524-1.1864 7.3303 2.1824-0.0095-0.6180 6.9521 (8.1026) (0.1778) (-0.4428) (7.7048) (8.8913) (-0.0337) (-0.8988) (10.9356) Cotton 2.3875-3.1468-1.0527 2.5494-1.6051-0.5248-0.7785-4.4907 (6.4823) (-3.2634) (-0.5460) (1.8037) (-6.1378) (-1.7455) (-0.9288) (-3.2997) Sugarcane 4.8706 9.1607 2.1726 5.9151 4.4043 6.0939 4.0974 5.2456 (25.8556) (16.0002) (3.8207) (9.4017) (38.9052) (16.6317) (7.9213) (8.7079) Chillies 1.3106 1.1277 0.5415 3.6731 1.3678-0.1383 4.1726 0.4607 (6.4176) (1.9858) (0.1939) (1.6462) (9.7577) (-0.6429) (6.2542) (0.5952) Tobacco 2.5525-2.0457 6.3756 2.8622 1.1601-0.8263 3.4287 0.9671 (7.0023) (-1.1970) (2.7791) (3.3378) (5.9474) (-0.9986) (2.6573) (1.7850) Coconut 3.6363 1.3433 3.8315 2.9510 2.7783 2.4448 2.4718 2.9732 (23.1189) (1.5295) (5.2242) (40.1078) (79.1304) (11.1643) (21.9188) (36.2428) Arecanut 3.8087 6.7938 3.6477 1.8885 2.2879 1.9704 2.1714 1.7462 (17.0232) (7.3226) (3.9858) (29.4746) (39.4523) (1.3715) 07.3500) (25.5278) Banana -2.6222-1.4204 (-0.4831) (-0.7011) CiIrus 1.4365 0.9217 (2.6926) (6.9303) Mango 10.8035 5.4719 (9.0763) (38.7558) Coffee 4.2964 4.4295 3.8213 3.7285 2.4177 1.7176 3.2537 1.7331 (16.3494) (4.7107) (2.0537) (2.2600) (34.7982) (8.4858) (11.9291) (4.5404) Mulberry 5.2602 2.6378 (11.4172) (35.8705) Note : t-values are presented in parentheses 18

shown highest growth rate of 6.38 per cent in the second period and it has come down to 2.86 per cent in the third period. The growth in production of the crop is contributed by both area and yield. The production of coconut has shown an increasing trend in all the periods with highest growth rate in the second period (3.83 per cent). In the third period the crop has shown 2.95 per cent growth in production without any growth in productivity. Arecanut has highest growth in production in the first period with 6.79 per cent. The rate of growth has declined to 3.65 per cent in second period and to 1.89 per cent in the third period. The decline in the rate of growth from period to period can be attributed to the slowing down of rate of growth of productivity. Among the three fruit crops mango has spown considerable growth in production. The production growth of the crop is 10.8 per cent in the third period. The growth in. production is equal1y contributed by area and yield. The growth rate in the production of coffee varied from 3.7 per cent to 4.43 per cent for the three periods. The growth in production of the crop is mainly contributed by yield in the first and third periods and by area in the second period. Coming to mulberry, secondary data on production is not available. Hence, cocoon production is taken as proxy to mulberry production. The mulberry production in the State has grown at 5.26 per cent in the third period and this growth is contributed both by area and yield. These growth rates suggest that there appears to be an inverse rela.; tionship between growth rates of area and yield in the State. Trends in Crop Production in Zone I : The growth rates of production and area by crops for Zone I are presented in Table 4.3. The cereal production in the Zone has grown at the rate of 2.11 per cent for the total period. It has grown much faster in the first period (3.34 per cent) followed by second (2.8 per cent) and third (1.87 per cent) periods. In all the periods the area has shown negative growth and the production growth has come from the productivity. Even the productivity growth was higher in the first period (3.43 per cent) followed by the second (3.16 per cent) and third (2.57 per cent) periods. The production of Jowar, the predominant cereal crop of the Zone. has shown only 1.1 per cent growth for the total period. Much of its growth can be attributed to the growth in the first period. Though jowar gained productivity in the second period (4.18 per cent) compared to the first period. much of the productivity gain was swept by the negative growth in area (2.62 per cent). The growth in the production of the crop is the least (1.07 per cent) in the third period due to stagnation in productivity and area. 19

Wheat and ragi have shown impressive performance of growth in production only during (Second period) green revolution period. During the second period the production of wheat has grown at 5.81 per cent and ragi at 5.1 per cent. The growth in production of wheat has come mainly from productivity (4.33 per cent) and ragi from area (4.46 per cent). The growth in production obtained in the second period of these crops could not be sustained in the third period and on the other hand they exhibited negative growth. The crop which has shown impressive growth in production during first and second periods is bajra. The production of the crop has grown at 3.81 per cent in the first period and 6.85 per cent during the second period. The growth in production of the crop is contributed by productivity (3.17 per cent) in the first period and by productivity (2.13 per cent) and area (4.62 per cent) in the second period. Though the crop has productivity growth (2.71 per cent) in the third period, the negative growth in area brought in negative growth in production. Maize is the only cereal crop which has shown impressive growth in production in all the three periods. The growth in production of Maize is as high as 12.09 in the second period. In all the three periods the growth in production has come mainly from area increase. The Zone has not witnessed the growth in production of rice during the green revolution period. The growth in production (3.92 per cent) of the crop has come during the third period mainly contributed by area (2.65 per cent). The above growth rates show that the cereal production and productivity declined in the Zone from first period to second period and from second period to third period. Pulses account for about 15 per cent of gross cropped area of the Zone. The pulses production has grown at 2.32 per cent per annum for the total period in the Zone. The performance of pulses production was impressive in second period with a growth rate of 5.15 per cent and it has come mainly through productivity growth (3.52 per cent). Like many cereal crops the growth in production of pulses also has come down in the third period through stagnation in the productivity. Among the components of pulses, tur has shown growth in production in the first and second periods. The respective growth rates for the two periods are 3.84 per cent and 8.28 per cent. The growth in production in the two periods has come through productivity and area. The crop exhibited negative growth rate of 3.84 per cent in productivity during the third period. The other pulse crop, gram has shown a consistent growth rate of around 3 per cent in all the three periods. The growth in production of the crop has come from productivity in the first two periods and through area in the last period. Oilseeds have become important crop of the Zone occupying 28.7 per cent of the gross cropped area of the Zone. The growth in production of total oilseeds has come only in the third period with a growth rate of ~.74 20

Table 4.3 Compound growth rates of crop production and area by periods - Zone I Crops Production Area Total II III Total II III Period Period Rice 2.6291 1.5754-1.5508 3.9240 1.1421 2.4537-1.0100 2.6549 (8.6126) (1.0114) (-0.8457) (3.4794) (7.8310) (10.9660) (-2.0086) (5.4056) Wheat 2.7183 0.7176 5.8133-2.0559-0.6410-0.5381 1.4205-3.8657 (4.7691) (0.3306) (2.9389) (-1.4134) (-2.8287) (-1.0721) (3.8459) (-6.3698) Jowar 1.1023 3.2399 1.4536 1.0668-0.8589 -O.5n5-2.6202 0.3761 (5.6252) (5.0385) (0.8166) (1.2612) (-4.8428) (-1.1709) (-3.3918) (0.6835) Bajra 2.3907 3.8080 6.8495-1.1879-0.3515 0.6157 4.6214-3.7928 (5.7299) (3.2362) (1.6575) (-0.9484) (-1.3615) (2.0846) (2.5706) (-5.4903) Ragi 1.1071-3.3771 5.1003-5.3726 0.9911 0.5097 4.4608-5.3317 (2.1725) (-2.3532) (1.3827) (-2.6459) (3.3596) (1.4465) (2.6768) (-5.7112) Maize 14.2150 7.5039 12.0886 7.7708 9.6097 6.3545 12.1428 6.0573 (17.9488) (3.6194) (8.1830) (10.4256) (34.5745) (6.4808) (20.4345) (12.4737) Total Cereals 2.1093 3.3386 2.8046 1.8663-0.4926-0.0896-0.3432-0.6832 (12.1002) (6.0010) (1.4854) (2.5130) (-7.5161) (-0.4179) (-1.1515) (-2.0328) Gram 2.0332 3.3838 3.9273 3.0277 1.3167 0.0394 0.7601 4.2803 (5.0421) (3.4435) (0.7123) (2.1366) (6.7438) (0.0618) (0.8765) (4.5512) Tur 2.3919 3.8419 8.2795-2.1875 2.2112 1.5790 3.2294 1.7160 (5.1200) (3.0642) (2.3373) (-1.0574) (14.6411) (4.8866) (2.5535) (2.1952) Total Pulses 2.3187 2.3576 5.1546 0.9661 1.2290 0.7303 1.5753 1.3013 (8.2736) (3.3199) (1.6358) (1.0786) (13.5514) (1.9322) (2.0069) (3.1385) Groundnut 0.0531-0.9080-3.9653 3.0493-0.4939 0.0193-2.8696 1.3830 (0.1707) (-0.7715) (-1.3352) (3.4270) (-4.0804) (0.0651) (-4.3701) (2.7245) Sesamum 9.8553 2.6362 6.6745 1.9326 (1.3033) (1.1670) (4.4565) (1.5234) Safflower 2.6903-0.3742-2.0872-0.6149 (0.6642) (-0.2050) (-1.5077) (-0.4057) Sunnower 21.5400 23.7931 (5.0160) (6.8067) Total Oil Seeds 1.8655-0.8494-1.4552 5.7365 1.7533-0.1090-1.0393 6.2754 (5.0813) (-0.7782) (-0.4741) (5.3999) (7.2751) (-0.3341) (-1.5316) (8.3192) Cotton 1.8244-3.0319-0.6447 0.5768-2.0068-0.4489-0.5956-6.2381 (4.6955) (-2.9916) (-0.3472) (0.3385) (-6.4914) (-1.4938) (-0.8219) (-4.5032) Sugarcane 5.4174 8.4307 5.1146 6.4413 5.3370 6.2442 6.4794 5.9968 (26.9341) (17.8668) (3.3113) (8.3744) (35.8972) (18.8817) (4.9108) (10.3874) Chillies 2.4864 0.1250 1.0280 6.3855 2.3411-0.4909 7.1081 2.1848 (5.9234) (0.1746) (0.3336) (2.5939) (11.3120) (-1.1656) (7.4872) (2.6087) Tobacco 2.8510-2.7588 8.5077 2.0264 0.6043-0.0181 3.1356-0.6487 (7.2291) (-2.0117) (2.5851) (1.6966) (3.2857) (-0.0207) (2.1453) (-1.1110) Coconut 6.0362 5.7218 5.2429 9.4766 4.9885 3.6000 5.4642 9.1074 (11.3320) (1.7644) (4.3050) (24.6998) (13.7399) (3.4889) (7.2703) (23.8017) Arecanut 3.5172 13.3961 4.2344 0.3240 0.6488 5.4220 2.9066 0.5805 (5.7249) (4.2321) (1.2614) (0.5494) (1.4357) (2.9553) (0.6799) (1.1295) Banana -0.9151 (-0.4119) Citrus 6.4447 (15.1738) Mango 6.0300 (14.9325) Mulberry 1112.0068 4.5656 (10.1033) (2.8900) Note : t-values are presented in parentheses 21

per cent contributed by area. Out of the four oilseeds, groundnut and sunflower account for about 25 per cent of the gross cropped area. Though groundnut is the traditional oilseeds of the Zone, it has gained growth in production only in the third period with 3.05 per cent and the growth has come both from area and productivity. The data on sesamum and safflower is available from the second period onwards. Out of the two crops, sesamum fared well in production particularly in the second period with a growth rate of 9.85 per cent mainly from area expansion. Sunflower, a new crop, appeared in the third period has shown 21.54 per cent growth rate in production and the entire growth has come through increase in area. These growth rates show that the area under total oilseeds has increased in the Zone during the third period though there is no increase in the productivity. Among other commercial crops - cotton, sugarcane, chillies and tobacco, the growth rate in production is high for sugarcane in all the three periods, whereas it is high for tobacco in second period and for chillies in third period. For cotton the growth in production is negative in the first period and stagnant in the second and third periods. The growth rate in production for sugarcane was around 6 per cent for the three periods and the contributing factor is the area in all the three periods and the productivity contribution has come only in the first period. The growth rate in production for chillies in third period was around 6 per cent and it was contributed by area and productivity. Though area under the crop expanded significantly in the second period it has not resulted in growth in production due to declined productivity. Tobacco production (8.5 per cent) catched up in the second period both from area and productivity. The Production of the crop could not sustain in the third period due to decline in area. Cotton, traditional crop of the Zone, is fading away over time in spite of productivity gain in the last period. Thus the performance of commercial crops showed a mixed picture particularly in the third period. While area under sugarcane increased with stagnating productivity, the area under cotton declined with increase in productivity. Among the garden crops - coconut, arecanut and mulberry, coconut has gained area in all the three periods with productivity growth only in the first period, arecanut gained area in the first two periods with productivity growth only in the first period. The data on mulberry (cocoon) is available only for the last period. During the period the mulberry has shown significant growth in production (12 per cent) which has come both from area and productivity. Thus the garden crops made some inroad into the Zone. Among the fruit crops citrus and mango have shown growth in area in the third period. For fruit crops there are no estimates of production available at district level. 22

Trends in Crop Production in Zone " : The growth rates of production and area by crops for Zone " are presented in Table 4.4. The cereal production in the Zone has grown at the rate of 2.21 per cent for the total period. It has grown much faster in the second period (2.72 per cent) followed by third period (2.64 per cent). In all the periods the area has shown negative growth and the production growth in second and third periods has come from the productivity. The productivity growth was higher in the third period (3.77 per cent) than in the second period (2.94 per cent). The production of ragi, the major cereal crop of the Zone, has shown impressive growth (6.59 per cent) in the second period and about 2 per cent growth in the third period. Yield is the contributing factor for growth in production in the two periods. Rice has second place among cereal crops in the Zone and the growth rate in production of the crop for the total period is 3.27 per cent. Though the crop has not fared well in the first two periods, the growth performance in the third period is quite impressive (4.28 per cent) and it has come mainly from productivity. Jowar, an important cereal crop of the State, is fading away over time in the Zone. The crop has shown poor performance in production in all the three periods mainly due to decline in area. However, the productivity of the crop has grown at 3.42 per cent for the total period and at 2.17 per cent in the second period. Like jowar, bajra is also fading away from the Zone and the negative productivity of the crop might also have contributed for the decline of the cropped area. Maize being a new crop has shown 27.47 per cent growth in production for the total period and the production has grown significantly in all the periods mainly from area expansion. Wheat is not an important crop of the Zone. Thus in the Zone the rain fed cereal crops are fading away and irrigated crops like rice and maize are becoming popular. The production of pulses has come down in the Zone due to decline' in area over time. Among pulse crops only gram has shown growth in prodl!ction in first and last periods mainly from area expansion. The production of oilseeds has picked up in the third period with a growth rate of 11.34 pt;r cent mainly from area increase. All the four oilseed crops contributed to the growth in production. Much of the growth has come from sunflower (25.01 per cent) followed by groundnut (11.32 per cent). Safflower (10.38 per cent) and Sesamum (5.62 per cent). The growth in production of these crops has come from area expansion except for Sesamum. Among the commercial crops, cotton and chillies have shown growth in production (10.98 per cent and 3.52 per cent respectively) in the third period mainly from productivity. Sugarcane exhibited growth in production (8.63 per cent) only in the first period contributed by area as well as by 23

Table 4.4 Compound growth rates of crop production and area by periods Zone II Crops Production Area Total II III Total II III Period Period Rice 3.2721 1.8317-0.6458 4.2794 0.9614 2.8238-0.6686 1.0903 (7.3698) (1.2298) (-0.1689) (2:9975) (4.1751) (4.6594) (-0.3052) (1.0646) Wheal 7.0316-4.2055-11.2273-8.2123 1.9592-1.9642-4.2458-7.4223 (4.0278) (-1.0557) (-3.5082) (-3.7366) (2.1478) (-0.8466) (-1.4047) (-2.7597) Jawar 1.9277 0.0798 0.0145-2.6233-1.4437-1.4406-2.1121-2.9133 (3.1817) (0.0515) (0.0067) (-2.0620) (-6.6550) (-1.2478) (-1.3859) (-3.5105) Bajra -0.6099-4.9772-3.3175-8.3832-2.1276-4.9157-2.2817-8.1564 (-0.7398) (-2.1716) (-0.5963) (-2.2232) (-4.3300) (-3.6239) (-0.6087) (-4.0011) Ragi 1.8828-4.5103 6.5935 2.0498 0.2101 0.0853 1.0635-0.2297 (4.8218) (-3.1425) (3.1030) (2.1881) (2.5121) (0.2190) (1.4254) (-0.7750) Maize 27.4706 37.4043 9.9144 6.9060 20.5054 33.9629 10.1215 5.5612 (10.0492) (2.8983) (4.3502) (5.3017) (10.0851) (2.7123) (6.1004) (6.2636) Total Cereal 2.2127-1.6183 2.7222 2.6431-0.3257-0.3517-0.2092-1.0826 (6.2873) (-1.1743) (1.3061) (2.7062) (-3.0413) (-0.7846) (-0.1830) (-3.5948) Gram -1.4494 11.4654-14.5949 4.3561-2.4939 14.4122-14.2350 7.2768 (-1.5512) (2.9820) (-4.4309) (1.0828) (-2.6527) (3.3825) (-7.5263) (2.2366) Tur 0.3324-1.1600 1.7475 2.6144-1.7514-2.2439-1.8521 3.5250 (0.7350) (-0.6244) (0.5121) (1.5611) (-4.0664) (-2.7702) (-1.2268) (3.9077) Total Pulses 0.5385-0.7629-1.5343-0.2008-0.3061-1.9782-1.0228-1.5420 (1.6938) (-0.8835) (-1.1359) (-0.2088) (-2.2648) (-7.1858) (-1.0168) (-2.7232) Groundnut 5.2240 1.9020-0.4999 11.3267 4.2209-0.2204 1.0561 9.6582 (11.5648) (1.0031) (-0.1710) (9.0380) (13.2029) (-0.3242) (0.6327) (20.6625) Sesamurn 1.5721 5.6194-0.9364-0.3564 (0.1357) (1.5908) (-0.2082) (-0.1610) Safflower 13.6619 10.3773 3.2219 11.7713 (4.2982) (2.5992) (0.5822) (2.5532) Sunllower 25.0100 31.2003 (5.0100) (6.1763) Total Oil Seeds 5.3912 2.0328-0.0461 11.3409 4.1800-0.4491 1.1286 9.9882 (11.8867) (1.0405) (-0.0152) (10.1073) (12.4387) (-0.7616) (0.6627) (19.9447) Cotton 3.0702-4.7415-7.8512 10.9786-1.4678-2.0685-6.8947 1.5268 (3.9654) (-3.2519) (-1.0024) (4.7760) (-2.9197) (-2.8440) (-1.0122) (0.9706) Sugarcane 2.7090 8.6348-0.3438 1.0056 1.3399 4.4113 4.0009-0.1977 (5.9469) (3.7636) (-0.2966) (0.7173) (4.2974) (4.6292) (4.5540) (-0.1554) Chillies 0.0264-2.8221-0.5884 3.5235-1.0184-0.9003-2.8271-2.1829 (0.0537) (-1.6369) (-0.0684) (1.1484) (-4.9062) (-1.2256) (-1.6074) (-3.3665) Tobacco -6.0702-3.4127-0.4020-10.6060-4.8909 1.0680-5.0790-8.7076 Coconut (-7.5635) (-1.1695) (-0.0493) (-3.0712) (-9.3021) (0.9251) (-1.4190) (-3.2576) 4.8751 1.6851 6.9882 3.2906 2.9622 2.5486 2.7571 3.4027 (19.9240) (1.6978) (4.2790) (32.2955) (60.9901) (10.3473) (19.9803) (30.8943) Arecanut 3.5671 10.1691 4.3821 0.0126 2.1249 2.2395 2.2500 0.1079 (8.0787) (5.5989) (1.8704) (0.1247) (14.0029) (4.3986) (5.4783) (0.7856) Banana 7.4844 (3.7256) Citrus 2.0597 (7.7978) Mango 5.2712 (37.7126) Mulberry 5.7254 5.2442 (13.0556) (14.9281) Note : t-vajues are presented in parentheses 24