IMPACTS OF DROUGHT ON MAIZE CROP IN KENYA By John Mwikya, Kenya Meteorological Dept.
INTRODUCTION The main staple crop for Kenyans is maize and is grown in all parts of the country except in the pastoral regions in the North Eastern which are very dry to support rain-fed agriculture. The Eastern areas are normally dry but receive some unreliable rains not exceeding a mean rainfall of 500 mm. These 2 regions are the most vulnerable to drought and have in the past 3 years suffered drought which led to severe famine and loss of both livestock and wildlife.
INTRODUCTION Maize is grown in abundance in the Western parts of the country, which is referred to as the bread Basket of the country. Although Kenya experiences 2 rainy seasons (Mar- May) Long rains and (Oct- Dec) short rain the dry and semi arid areas of North Eastern and Eastern, Western parts the long rains extend up to August and very reliable.
INTRODUCTION During the last 3 years rainfall has been deficient leading to crop failure in the drought vulnerable area, thus famine, death of humans, livestock and wildlife The government declared the famine a national disaster and formed a Special Programs Ministry to solicit funds and handle food relief activities and purchase weak animals for slaughter from the nomad. Another inevitable thing occurred as pasture and water resource completely dried and different clans clashed over these resources As currently rains have are on the people in these areas are being affected by water borne diseases as they drinking contaminated water as a result of wash-offs of carcasses lying around.
INTRODUCTION It is realised that Kenya Met. Dept. had given forecasts on the impending short falls in rainfall amounts and the government mobilised the few resources it had in good time leading to fewer losses of life than could have been the case as maize was moved to the Northern and Eastern in good time during 2004. In the following years the Western parts got their share of rain deficiency and production was low, hence need to mobilise food became inevitable.
WHAT IS METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT DOING Met dept operates 35 stations through out the country which include 16 agromet stations supplemented by a network of about 700 raingauges. This network fell from a high of about 3000 stations in 1980 s to the current level due to limited resource In 35 station crop specific water balance especially for the main cereals maize and bean are being assessed through the FAO Agromet shell and Yield simulation through Australian package APSIM. Though these packages are newly acquired they are supplementing the general weather forecasts A short coming is that the 35 do not cover all agroclimatological zones where maize grown as most are in high potential areas and only 8 in the vunerable areas.
WHAT IS METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT DOING In the agromet stations the data observed include all meteorological parameters and crop data; Phenology Plant density State of weeding and the crop state (Visual) Expected yield ( Visual during late vegetative stage Actual soil moisture observations after every 2 days The above data are being used together with the products from the models for maize monitoring.
WHAT IS METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT DOING The Met Dept issues seasonal (twice a year) in liaison with IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND ADVISORIES CENTER (ICPAC) and the same is passed to the planners, farmers and both electronic and print media. 10-day agromet advisories, 4-day forecasts are also issued. All these have been given for this year and drought situation in the areas in Eastern where maize is grown opportunistically and seen failures for the last 3 years is predicted.
WHAT IS METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT DOING In collaboration with the University of Nairobi a the dept is preparing a questionaire to get feedback on perception of our forecasts from farmer throughout the country. This will indicate to us the missing link. A rural radio project involving rural communities RANET is being undertaken and currently 2 stations are being installed. 4 more stations have arrived and are awaiting installation. Numerical weather prediction models are being designed and their products will help enhance the output in our agromet bulletins
CHALLENGES As Kenya has diverse agroecological zone the sparse network especially in marginal areas which are at most risk of crop (maize) does not give a leeway to address needs of these communities. Whereas we may come up with good reliable methods of crop weather forecasting, people in these areas (Eastern) are unlikely to change their eating habits (maize) and unless they are involved in the process little is expected to be achieved and they still remain vulnerable to vagaries of drought as the case has been. Eating habits especially those in North Eastern make the benefit of relief food not to be achieved as they eat rice and provision of maize did not alleviate the problem and some sold of their portions to enable them buy rice. A project on monitoring pasture conditions and levels of water points will be more useful to them, so that government can put in interventions in good time to avoid famine and tribal clashes
CHALLENGES For the communities to get more involved politicians, media and planners needs to be sensitized. Workshops for them to understand weather products need to be organised At KMD we have invited members of Public Works, Energy and Transport parliamentary committee who were receptive of our work and all other sectoral committee require such regular meetings, as these are the policy maker and are peoples representatives On our part the need to use language the community can understand is needed rather than above, normal or below normal.
CHALLENGES There is need to establish the chances of given lengths of dry spells from any other possible starting dates in order to establish risks associated with early or delayed onset of rains. This will be a useful guide to farmers in order to make some useful management decisions Met dept. is planning to open district offices in order to be closer to the people.