The FAO-UNIDO Agro-Industry Project Potential Next Steps Sangita Dubey FAO, Statistics Division (ESS) FAO-UNIDO Expert Group Meeting on Agro-Industry Measurement 22-23 November 2015
Project Content Description: Coverage to date The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division Activity coverage: Manufacturing (ISIC Rev. 3, D_15t37) Manufacture of food products, and beverages (ISIC Rev. 3, D_15) Manufacture of tobacco products (ISIC Rev. 4, D_16) Indicators: Gross Output, Value Added, Compensation of Employees, and Employment International comparability: LCU, and USD Time Series: 1990 up to 2013 Geography: 46 countries - OECD & BRIC countries, Bulgaria, Taiwan, Cyprus, Indonesia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Romania. 2
Prioritization of Next Steps? The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division 1. Extend AIM to all countries in INDSTAT2, including developing countries 2. Define Agro-industry (in statistical terms) 3. Disaggregate to sub-industries (main commodity group) 4. Produce series in constant LCU, and constant USD determine deflators 5. Add/improve variables: Employment (male, female, total), GFCF, trade variables (imports, exports) 6. Expand from Agro-food industries to Agro-industries (requires statistical definition of Agro-Industry) 7. Address food waste/loss statistics in the context of AIM 3
Prioritization of Next Steps: Define Agro-Industry May need to take into account both activity (ISIC) classification, and product (HS, CPC, COICOP) classification Requires activity-product mapping May require use of input-output tables to determine sector shares of value-added 4/19
Prioritization of Next Steps: Define Agro-Industry International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) Rev. 4, 10 - Manufacture of food products 11 - Manufacture of beverages 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products 13 - Manufacture of textiles 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products 5/19
Prioritization of Next Steps: Disaggregate to sub-industries Indstat4 available at ISIC 4 digit level of activity detail UNIDO will explore to extend the current methodology to this finer degree of detail 6/19
Billions The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division Prioritization of Next steps: Disaggregate to sub-industries (main commodity group) Imaginary Country Food and Beverages Gross Output and sub-industries - Cumulative Shares 600 500 400 Processing/preserving of meat Processing/preserving of fish Processing/preserving of fruit & vegetables Dairy products Prepared animal feeds Cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery Macaroni, noodles & similar products Soft drinks; mineral waters 300 200 100 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ISIC Rev.3 ISIC Description ISIC Rev.3 ISIC Description 151 Processed meat,fish,fruit,vegetables,fats 154 Other food products 1511 Processing/preserving of meat 1541 Bakery products 1512 Processing/preserving of fish 1542 Sugar 1513 Processing/preserving of fruit & vegetables 1543 Cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery 1514 Vegetable and animal oils and fats 1544 Macaroni, noodles & similar products 1520 Dairy products 1549 Other food products n.e.c. 153 Grain mill products; starches; animal feeds 155 Beverages 1531 Grain mill products 1551 Distilling, rectifying & blending of spirits 1532 Starches and starch products 1552 Wines 1533 Prepared animal feeds 1553 Malt liquors and malt 1554 Soft drinks; mineral waters 1600 Tobacco products 8/19
Prioritization of Next Steps: Select deflators to compile constant price series To compile constant price series, what are the appropriate deflators: GDP, Agriculture Value-Added, MVA, IPP, CPI, other? Should these vary across series? 9/19
Prioritization of Next Steps: Add/Improve variables Are labour variables from industry surveys and national accounts reliable? What are the challenges in constructing GFCF? What are the challenges in constructing trade variables? 10/19
Origin of value added in final demand for traded products Number of dimensions = 4: country of final demand, industry of final demand value added source country, value added source industry e.g. Domestic and foreign industry value added origin of domestic final demand for Food and beverages (i3 15-16) 100% Domestic food industry Domestic agriculture Domestic, other industries Foreign food industry Foreign agriculture Foreign, other industries 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?datasetcode=tiva2015_c3
OECD Genome of global final demand for food and beverages trade in VA
Prioritization of Next Steps: Expand from Agro-food to Agro-industry Extension upstream the value chain: e.g. contribution to total economy VA of processing of non-food agricultural inputs? 0,070 0,060 0,050 0,040 0,030 0,020 Contribution of Total Agriculture and Food Processing and Beverages to Total Economy Value Added, United Kingdom, 1990-2013 Contribution of processing of raw agricultural input underestimated - What about manufacturing of tobacco, natural fiber, bio-fuels, Food Processing and Beverages 0,010 Agriculture 0,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990
Apart from extensions per se, there is also scope for methodological refinements: e.g. Imputing missing Data in NA based series - We have seen how we deal with data gaps in INDSTAT2 series - What about NA series For the benchmark exercise, we have worked with countries with close to full coverage in terms od NA series but we know that developing countries may present scattered data in OCD UNSD which will be our main source - => How far shall we go in series reconstruction? + Importance of good reported series by countries 14
At country-level, what are the challenges in data collection? Delineating agriculture and agro-food manufacturing Coverage of all relevant activities through household and enterprise surveys: How do size cut-offs for enterprise surveys impact coverage of agroindustry activities? What is the role of the informal sector, and how is it captured? Other issues? 15
Relative size of households/formal/informal food processing HOUSEHOLDS/FORMAL/INFORMAL FOOD PROCESSING Industrial formal processing Industrial formal processing Informal sector Edit Text Here Informal sector Household processing Household processing Low GDP Per Capita High GDP Per Capita