Chemicals Industry Outlook VERSION 02 YEAR 13 OUTLOOK: Positive fundamentals & outlook www.eulerhermes.us
Key Points The U.S. chemical manufacturing industry is growing and is supported by increasing demand from several key end-use markets such as appliances, computer and electronics, plastic and rubber products. The demand from the American car manufacturing industry remains one of the most positive factors supporting the industry. The industry growth is somewhat impaired by weak demand for chemicals from major foreign markets. North American chemical manufacturers continue to benefit from the abundant supply and low prices of natural gas. The producers of ethylene-based plastics are the major beneficiaries of natural gas windfall. Overview The chemical industry is a cyclical business highly dependent on the changes of the global economy and reliant on the costs of basic commodities, especially oil and gas. Since many chemical products are consumed at early stages of the production supply chain, the chemicals industry is often considered an early indicator for the economic cycle. The Great Recession was quite harmful for the industry, as demand plummeted for everything from industrial chemicals and plastics to paint and adhesives to fertilizers. As the economy started to bounce back in the U.S., the chemicals industry quickly picked up pace. However, after a strong recovery in 2010 and 2011, industry production growth slowed to 1.6% in 2012 and contracted by 0.2% in Q1 of 2013 before resuming modest growth of 2.1% in Q2.
Current Situation Industry performance in the remaining months of 2013 and early 2014 is likely to be very similar to 2012. According to the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector is increasing and output in several key chemistry end-use markets such as appliances, computer and electronics, plastic and rubber products are improving in 2013 and are expected to remain resilient throughout 2014. The strength of the American car manufacturing industry remains one of the most positive factors in chemicals demand. In contrast with the positive domestic outlook, global markets are likely to experience weaker demand for chemicals, plastics and coatings due to slowing economies in China, India and Brazil, as well as the persisting financial problems in Europe. Meanwhile, American chemical manufacturers continue to benefit from the extremely low price of domestic natural gas. Henry Hub natural gas prices are currently trading in the mid-$3 range, down significantly from the pre-recession peak of $13 in mid-2008. The increase in shale gas and shale oil production is having a very positive effect on the industry, as a broad range of U.S.-based chemical companies benefit from lower costs for natural gas-based feedstock and lower cost inputs for plastics, coatings, adhesives and fertilizers. According to American Chemistry Council, U.S. shale deposits contain up to 100 years of natural gas supply. One area of concern for domestic gas prices is the recent spike in applications for natural gas export facilities as certain U.S. operators attempt to capitalize on the price disparity between domestic natural gas prices and those in foreign markets, particularly in Japan and Europe. To date, the U.S. has approved three facilities and has nearly two dozen applications awaiting approval. The possibility of the United States becoming a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter is worrisome for manufacturers and heavy industry as unlimited gas exports could harm their resurgent sectors by raising domestic prices. However, prices will remain low for several more years as the first facility, Cheniere Energy s Sabine Pass LNG terminal, is not scheduled to come online until late 2015. U.S. Petrochemical Revenue Growth Industry Revenue YOY % Change $ billions $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% Source: IBISWorld
Petrochemicals Low domestic natural gas prices have significantly reduced the input costs of North American petrochemical producers and allowed them to increase exporting activity as they become more competitive in the global marketplace. Low feedstock costs prevent imports of oil-based petrochemical products from Europe and the Middle East, and have resulted in a chemical plant construction boom on the Gulf Coast due to its close proximity to major oil and gas input terminals. Natural Gas Prices The producers of ethylene-based plastics are major beneficiaries of low-priced natural gas from shale formations. As gas prices declined substantially, ethylene margins have improved. Manufacturers of oil-based chemicals are benefiting from the moderate level of U.S. oil prices, more complex hydrocarbons derived from crude oil remain relatively more expensive and their supply more volatile. The U.S. petrochemical manufacturing sector is anticipated to grow through 2018 due to increasing demand from key buyers such as plastic and rubber manufacturers, driven by increased chemical intake from customers further downstream. We expect revenue growth in the mid-single digits at a pace slightly ahead of GDP growth. Regional Divergence of Natural Gas Prices $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 US UK Japan German import price 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Energy Intelligence, IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes Ethylene to Natural Gas Price Ratio 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Dec 00 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 02 Dec 02 Jun 03 Dec 03 Jun 04 Dec 04 Jun 05 Dec 05 Jun 06 Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 Jun 08 Dec 08 Jun 09 Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Source: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes
Plastics and Resins Plastic and resin manufacturing is heavily dependent on demand from two key sectors: manufacturing and construction. Plastic and resin makers underwent hard times during 2008-2009 as both of these sectors experienced significant demand and revenue declines during the recession. Although the sector generally recovered in 2010, the most recent results remained unimpressive due to sluggish economic performance. As mentioned before, industrial production is increasing in several important sub-sectors. Construction continues to improve due to low interest rates and record home affordability, causing builders to increase demand for plastic-based construction materials. Overall, the sector outlook for the next several years seems much brighter. U.S. Plastic & Resin Revenue Growth Industry Revenue YOY % Change in $ billions $110.0 $100.0 $90.0 $80.0 $70.0 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% $60.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-30% Source: IBISWorld Chemical Industry Outlook Overall the credit quality of North American chemical companies is expected to stay healthy, supported by a firming recovery of the general economy. We expect industry revenue growth to slightly outpace GDP advancement. Margins are expected to be quite robust, due to support from low natural gas prices. Liquidity will remain healthy, thanks to conservative management of corporate balance sheets, generally high cash reserves and easy access to credit for most major players in the chemicals industry.
Euler Hermes North America Insurance Company 800 Red Brook Blvd Owings Mills, MD 21117 Tel 877-883-3224 Fax 410-753-0952 www.eulerhermes.us Euler Hermes North America is the oldest and largest provider of trade credit insurance and accounts receivable management solutions. We offer both domestic and export credit insurance policies that insure against commercial and political risk in more than 200 countries worldwide. Euler Hermes maintains a database of proprietary information on more than 40 million companies worldwide and is rated A+ (Superior) by A.M. Best and AA- by Standard & Poor s. KEYS TO SYMBOLS Positive fundamentals & outlook Signs of weaknesses Structural weaknesses Imminent or recognised crisis www.eulerhermes.us Published 11/2013