Session I: Understanding fossil fuel subsidies - where, what, why?

BAOPING SHANG 12 June 2016 Geneva, Switzerland Session I: Understanding fossil fuel subsidies - where, what, why? Baoping Shang, Economist, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF www.e15initiative.org

Two notions of energy subsidies Narrow/pre-tax undercharging for supply cost of energy, including transportation and distribution costs. Broad/post-tax undercharging for supply cost and environmental cost (global warming, local pollution, traffic congestions and accidents etc.), as well as the failure to tax energy consumption just as other consumption goods to raise revenue.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 US$ trillions (nominal) Percent of Global GDP Global energy subsidies are large $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

reflect mostly local factors Components of global energy subsidies, 2015 Vehicle externalities 12% Foregone revenue 6% Global warming 24% Local pollution 52% Pre-tax subsidies 6%

and are from coal Product composition of global energy subsidies, 2015 Petroleum 28% Coal 59% Electricity 3% Natural gas 10%

Global energy subsidies, by region and component US$ billions (nominal) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 World LAC Advanced Emerging Europe E.D. Asia Com. Of Ind. States Sub-Saharan Africa MENAP World LAC Advanced Emerging Europe E.D. Asia Com. Of Ind. States Sub-Saharan Africa MENAP 0 5 10 15 20 Percent GDP Pre-tax Global warming Local air pollution Vehicle externalities Foregone revenue

Global energy subsidies, by region and product World LAC Advanced Emerging Europe E.D. Asia Com. Of Ind. States Sub-Saharan Africa MENAP US$ billions (nominal) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 World LAC Advanced Emerging Europe E.D. Asia Com. Of Ind. States Sub-Saharan Africa MENAP 0 5 10 15 20 Percent GDP Coal Petroluem Natural gas Electricity

Consequences of energy subsidies go well beyond fiscal costs Depress growth reduce investment in the energy sector crowd-out critical public spending over-allocate resources to energy intensive sectors Exert pressure on balance of payments of energy importers Create negative externalities (for example, global warming) Reinforce inequality

Distributional impact Bottom quintile Gasoline 2nd quintile 3 6 3rd quintile 10 Kerosene 21 19 61 19 20 20 4th quintile 21 Top quintile LPG Diesel 4 8 13 42 7 12 54 21 23 16

Percent reduction Energy price reform can generate substantial health benefits 70 60 Reduction of fossil-fuel emissions-related deaths, 2015 Global average: 57 50 40 30 20 10 0 Emerging Europe E.D. Asia CIS MENAP S.S. Africa Advanced LAC

and carbon emission reductions Reduction of fossil-fuel related CO 2 emissions, 2015

as well as a significant fiscal dividend

Time is now: act local, solve global! Mispricing of energy is substantial and pervasive across advanced and developing countries Reforms are needed for domestic reasons 195 countries signed on to the Paris climate agreement Low energy prices provide a window of opportunity Reform process should start now and be gradual

Some references 1. Reforming energy subsidies 2. Apply appropriate corrective taxes 3. Global magnitude and reform benefits See http://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/subsidies/ http://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/environ/

PETER WOODERS 12 June 2017 Geneva, Switzerland Session I: Understanding fossil fuel subsidies - where, what, why? Peter Wooders, Group Director, Energy, IISD & Programme Leader, Global Subsidies I www.e15initiative.org

Contents 1. Available estimates of Fossil Fuel Subsidies (FFS) a. By fuel, by country b. Data sources official national estimate or other? c. Definitions, scope, benchmarks, other assumptions 2. Some views on successful reform www.iisd.org/gsi

Consumer subsidies ($320 billion in 2015, IEA data) by energy type Categories of consumers: private sector, public sector, households IEA=most-quoted source 40 developing & emerging economies IEA data, assumptions IEA definition ( subsidies change prices ) Opaque calculations Benchmarks based on global fuel market prices Non-application of normal GST/VAT is a subsidy Sources: IEA (2017)

Consumer subsidies (at their highest in 2013, IEA data) by country Countries with highest subsidies = Oil & Gas Producers Some (strongly made) argumentation that benchmark should be production cost, not global market price Sources: IEA (2014), p. 323

Producer subsidies ($70 billion on annual average in G20 countries) by energy type Basis: OECD inventory of support measures OECD + BRICSAM Producer & consumer Inventory drawn from assessment of individual polices & measures Definition ~ OECD ASCM Data only from govt. sources ( conservative) Semi-official? (OECD members can object) Sources: GSI & ODI (2017) based on OECD (n.d.)

Environmental impact: all fossil fuel subsidies act as a negative carbon tax $320 billion Consumer subsidies (IEA 2015 estimate, only emerging & developing countries) $5.3 trillion ~6-8% emissions reduction by 2050 IMF 2015 global estimate, consumer subsidies incl.externalities + some producer subsidies $100 billion Producer subsidies (GSI global estimate, per year) ~2% emissions IMF figure includes some reduction by external 2050 costs, notably ~$35/tCO 2 Producer subsidy figure uncertain conservative? GHG emission reductions approx. 10% Higher GHG emissions reductions if savings invested into clean energy (eg GSI-IF model) Sources: GSI (n.d.), GSI & ODI (2017), IEA (2017), IMF (2015), NCM (2017)

Civil Society Organisations and others have produced independent estimates Typically more detailed, include more subsidies Use other data sources beyond simply government data Governments can refer to them as they wish Cover selected countries not necessarily those with highest subsidies

Countries own figures: G20 and APEC Peer Reviews Both APEC and G20 leaders committed in 2009 to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption APEC peer reviews: Peru, New Zealand, the Philippines (completed) Chinese Taipei, Vietnam (in progress) Brunei (pending) G20 peer reviews: US & China (completed in 2016) Germany & Mexico (in progress) Indonesia & Italy (pending) Economies have put forward 3-9 policies for review Inefficient and wasteful consumption remain open, undefined Strong voluntary nature whether and how to review Others have conducted Self reviews Useful first step Sources: GSI (2016)

Underway: Methodology Development (and Data Collection) SDG Indicator 12.c.1 Target 12.c specifically refers to FFSR: o Rationalize inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption by removing market o distortions, in accordance with national circumstances https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg12 Associated indicator 12.c.1 o Amount of fossil-fuel subsidies per unit of GDP (production and consumption) and as a proportion of total national expenditure on fossil fuels UN Environment is Indicator custodian Responsible to lead Methodology development, compile & report data For approval by UN MSs Core partner group established Meth. by March 2018 Data reported by MS 2020-2030

Some views on successful reform 1. Get the prices right 2. Manage the impacts 3. Build support (within govt., externally) Consumer subsidy reform well-understood Electricity subsidy reform note local and global external costs Producers note jobs, tax revenue, security, etc

THOMAS COTTIER 12 June 2016 Geneva, Switzerland Session I: Understanding fossil fuel subsidies the legal background Thomas Cottier, WTI www.e15initiative.org

The magnitude of fossil fuel subsidies Fossil fuel subsidies in numbers (IEA 2015) Fossil fuel subsidies in numbers (IMF 2015) $ 14.5bn/day $ 600m/hour $ 10m/minute $ 168,000/second June 12, 2017 29

The impacts of fossil fuel subsidies on CO2 emissions June 12, 2017 30

Overview of energy subsidies June 12, 2017 31

Production and consumption subsidies Production Specific subsidies Government assistance to exploration, extraction, shipping and marketing ASCM disciplines respond to this type of subsidies Problem to identify trade distorting effects inducing countervailing duties What data available? Consumption non specific subsidies Many developing countries operate non specific fuel subsidies, instead of targeted social policies in support of consumers Shows political complexity of fossil fuel subsidy reductions What data available?

WTO disputes on energy subsidies WTO ASCM disputes on energy subsidies have only targeted RE support programs! Canada - Renewables Energy (DS412, 2010) China - Measures concerning Wind Power Equipment (DS419, 2010) EU and certain Members States - Certain Measures Affecting the Renewable Energy Generation Sector (DS452, 2012) India Solar Cells (DS456, 2013) Part of a broader range of WTO disputes on clean energy, including trade defense cases and biofuels disputes June 12, 2017 33

Biofuels GATT, TBT, TRIMS, ASCM DS443 Certain Measures Concerning the Importation of Biodiesels Consultations requested: 17 August 2012 Current status: In consultations DS459 European Union (formerly EC) Certain Measures on the Importation and Marketing of Biodiesel and Measures Supporting the Biodiesel Industry Consultations requested: 15 May 2013 ADA DS473 European Union (formerly EC) Anti-Dumping Measures on Biodiesel from Argentina Consultations requested: 19 December 2013 Current status: Report(s) adopted, with recommendation to bring measure(s) into conformity DS480 European Union (formerly EC) Anti-Dumping Measures on Biodiesel from Indonesia Consultations requested: 10 June 2014 Current status: Panel composed

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US - Countervailing Duties on Measures on Certain Products from China 437ABR June 12, 2017 38

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Conclusions and Questions ASCM and WTO law partly able to cope with specific fossil fuel production subsidies to the extent they have a distorting effects, but not in targeting CO2 emission reduction, except for per se prohibited subsidies What can we learn from negotiations on fisheries subsidies? To what extent do we need to include consumption subsidies? How to link this with flanking policies on social welfare and support? What can we learn from the Agreement on Agriculture? Tariffication Reduction schedules and negotiations Green and amber boxes Prohibition of export subsidies (2020)