Emissions agriculture and LULUCF: conditions, potential and developments Peter Kuikman & Jan Peter Lesschen Wageningen Environmental Research (Alterra)
Contents Soil Carbon Policy and MRV Soil emissions 4 per mille initiative Measures and potential Carbon Credits Conclusions
Global Carbon Cycle and agriculture Soils hold 2x more C than vegetation and atmosphere Annual flux of C to soils is 10x emissions fossil fuel Small changes in soil C could potentially be significant Adaptation of soil and land management needed Bron: GLOBE Carbon Cycle Project
4 EU climate policy (per 14-12!!)
5 LULUCF regulation LU and LUC (and F) Emissions and book keeping Essence: secure and maintain stocks / reduce emissions or enhance and enlarge stocks and lower emissions Policy incentive: no debit
6 LULUCF categories Categories: Managed Forest (MF) (and HWP) Af- and de-forestation (AF, DF) Grassland en arable land management (GM, CM) Other Settlements / wetlands No debit Σ Δ AF + Δ DF + Δ GM + Δ CM + Δ MF > 0
Reporting soil C emissions/sequestration NL reports to UNFCCC on annual basis Soil and land use are part of sector LULUCF Now, only emissions from LUC are considered NL have not elected CM and GM under the Kyoto Protocol. As we speak NL develops a methodology for CM and GM reporting
GHG emissions agriculture NL
LUCAS OC content arable land
C input to arable land C input animal manure C input from crop residues
Soil C in the Netherlands Organic carbon content Soil C stock Based on LSK data and land use map (Lesschen et al., 2012)
Organic versus mineral soils Organic Soil: Peat or high carbon soils C stock >> 150 ton C/ha CO 2 emissions Prevent oxidation (water table management, controlled drainage) Mineral Soil: Sand or clay C stock 50-100 ton C/ha Sequestration possible (catch crops, less soil tillage, compost) mogelijk
Soil data NL 350 Org. koolstofvoorraad (ton/ha) 300 250 200 150 100 50 Akkerland Grasland Natuur Bos 0 Brikgrond Eerdgrond Oude kleigrond Leemgrond Kalkloze zandgrond Moerige grond Podzol grond Rivierklei grond Veengrond Zeekleigrond Kalkhoudende zandgrond
Soil Organic Matter contents NL (Eurofins)
At parcel level: major variations Gezond zand project (Eibergen)
Modelled soil C balance NL Arable land Grassland Agricultural soil -200 kg C/ha/yr +700 kg C/ha/yr +250 kg C/ha/yr
Monitoring Soil C Soil C monitoring Spatially variable Changes can be verified over longer time periods Many soil samples needed expensive? Alternative: Soil C Balance at farm scale Input manure, crop residues and other C materials (Simple) model for soil C decomposition Validation at sample farmes and EU scale, e.g. EU LUCAS monitoring or national monitoring
4 promille initiative Presented by France at COP21 C sequestration in soils: Climate mitigation Adaptation agriculture Food supply security and regenerate high quality soils Aspirational goal
Example calculation NL For mineral agricultural soils: Average stock 93 ton C/ha (upper 30 cm) 4 0 / 00 = 375 kg C/ha/yr ~25% additional effective organic matter 1.37 ton CO 2 /ha/yr ~2.2 Mton CO 2 /yr for NL Locally feasible, for all NL difficult
Agriculure in the climate agreement Regeerakkoord 2017: reduction target 2030: Methane emission: 1 Mton Horticulture under glass: 1 Mton Smart land use: 1,5 Mton Not clear yet how to be achieved and implemented
Main categories soil measures Less soil management and tillage or grassland renewal) More crop residues (catchcrop and green fertilizer, permanent crops in rotation, leave crop residues) Add additional organic matter (animal manure, compost, other organic waste based fertilizers) Prevent and halt peat oxidation (water table fixed, sub soil water drainage) Set up perennials and woody vegetation
Mitigation potential soil C sequestration Maatregel Max. potentieel Implementatie Realistisch Max. per ha kton CO 2 / jaar % kton CO 2 / jaar kg CO 2 / ha / jaar Niet-kerende grondbewerking 475 50 238 608 Geen grondbewerking 912 20 182 1167 Vanggewas / groenbemester 311 50 156 398 Verbeteren gewasrotaties 942 20 188 1205 Gewasresten achterlaten 628 20 126 803 Akkerrandenbeheer 145 40 58 186 Niet scheuren grasland 710 30 213 3586 Totaal realistische combinaties 2270 790 2316 Lesschen et al. (2012) Total realistic potential mineral soils 1 Mton CO 2 /jr Equals appr. 5% of agricultural emissions
Why not engage in C sequestration? - Short term visions: e.g. (economic) yield of tubercrops and bulbs on former grassland - Selling and exporting straw - Habits/culture/not familiar - Knowledge and capacity/capability - Lack of interest (no ownership of land) So: extra stimulus will help 23
Credits: pay for CO 2 sequestration of stock Methods Output based (% OS) Input based (measures) Boundary conditions Need a reference level or max Level playing field Payment basis: flux and/or stock Monitoring control sanctions Boundary (avoid double counting) 24
Award when (start or end) and how to achieve level playing field conditions? Dilemma: Pay for adding C (flux) or for securing carbon (stock)? Soil management: control of carbon sequestration? 25
Value of carbon credits ETS: 5 per ton Voluntary market: 10 20 per ton Austrian Humuszertifikate : 45 per ton (33% admin) 1 to 2 ton per ha per year sequestration... Not going to make a farmer a rich farmer 26
Long term commitment... Metrics: CO 2 need continuous focus as organic matter gets lost A limit/max is likely to exist (and requires continued action and maintenance of soil carbon stock) If a qualitative target -> what about control and sanctions? Incentives: Industry: buy credits from agriculture Conditions for land hiring -> land owners (contracted work!) Demands for product performance food chain parties Credit and loan conditions -> banks CAP -> European policy and commitment 2020-30 and beyond 27
So? CO 2 sequestration is no-regret CO 2 sequestration and securing C is technically not complicated yet culturally it is! As LU now is part of the climate policy and discussion, soil C is very high on the agenda Novel and extra incentives will be needed and links to other might work best. Carbon credits can be part of incentives however many questions exist 28
And next? Use Green Deal and national carbon markets Learn from initiatives in Denmark and Austria Market analyses NL and pilots Incentivise farmers to keep carbon balances and budgets Connect with other stakeholders, incentives and policy and societal themes 29
Carbon cycle in agriculture...
What to keep in mind? Saturation of the carbon sink Permanency (carbon sequestered can be easily lost again) Leakage (create grassland here and arable at another site) Verification (can we measure C sequestration with reasonable accuracy and over what time periods?)