Air Pollution and the Climate System: Sustainability Now and Later Tami C. Bond Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ISTC Seminar Series October 13, 2009 Photo: NASA 1
Take-home messages Many pollutants affect climate it s more than just the greenhouse effect Small sources matter, especially when emissions depend on process A broad portfolio of solutions is available when and where are considerations 2
Outline 1. Human effects on earth s radiation balance Greenhouse gases; bright & dark particles 2. A special case: carbon particles The role of small sources 3. Balancing near-term and long-term goals Sustainability now and later 3
1. Overview Human effects on earth s radiation balance Greenhouse gases; bright & dark particles 4
Our fire dilemma: we like it, and we don t like it Benefits: Warmth Sterilization/preservation Process heat Power Mobility Camaraderie Mysticism Hazards: Poor air quality Health damages Global change 5
Both complete & incomplete combustion affect the environment Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Other gases * Particulate Matter (PM) * Products of incomplete combustion (PICs): Carbon monoxide (CO), Methane (CH 4 ), Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) Indoor air pollution Outdoor air pollution (smog, ozone, poor visibility) Climate change 6
Many pollutants result in global change Radiative forcing (W/m 2 ) Source: IPCC, 2007 cooling warming 7
Photo: V. Ramanathan 8
Aerosol emissions changing the Earth s reflectivity Photo: NASA (via Robert Charlson) 9
I ll contrast three different combustion products. Carbon dioxide Sulfate aerosol Soot aerosol `` O=C=O Other products affect climate also: N 2 O, ozone, non-soot carbon particles image: Cardiff Univ. 3. combustion-climate links 10
These combustion products have different sources & lifetimes. Carbon dioxide Sulfate aerosol Soot aerosol Emission rate (metric tonne/ year) 6.4 billion (2000) 70 million (1995, as S) 8 million (2000) Emission cause Fuel quantity, carbon content Sulfur in fuels Poor combustion 3. combustion-climate links 11
The three combustion products have different atmospheric lifetimes & effects. Carbon dioxide Sulfate aerosol Soot aerosol Lifetime ~100 yrs ~ 4 days ~ 5-7 days Effect of 1 kg on energy balance ~1 watt/g ~-200 watt/g ~1800 watt/g Confidence High Medium Low 3. combustion-climate links 12
Changing each has different implications. Carbon dioxide Sulfate aerosol Soot aerosol Effect of change Increase: Warming (etc.) Decrease: Warming (etc.) Decrease: Cooling (etc.) Possible solutions Energy with less carbon Fuel with less sulfur; end-of-pipe controls Improve combustion; end-of-pipe controls 3. combustion-climate links 13
Implication (1) Radiative forcing (W/m 2 ) Some of the expected warming due to greenhouse gases has been masked by reflective particles. Source: IPCC, 2007 (Ocean adjustment is another reason for unrealized warming) cooling warming 14
Implication (2) Removing reflective aerosols will increase warming. This is happening because of air quality policies. There is some concern that the climate system will proceed past tipping points. Source: Ramanathan and Feng, PNAS (105), 14245 15
GHGs are a poor measure of climate impact when products of incomplete combustion are high Many pollutants affect climate it s more than just the greenhouse effect For residential biofuel, climate forcing by products of incomplete combustion is greater than that of greenhouse gases 100-year GWP Bond, Venkataraman and Masera, ESD, 2004 Thought process initiated by Smith et al, AREE, 2000 16
2. Carbon particles, a special case and the role of small sources 17
Black carbon a warming particle Light is reflected away from Earth. Most particles cool the climate system Black carbon warms it, so Scattering particle Light is absorbed and turned into heat. Absorbing particle Black carbon = Warming Both warming particles & cooling particles are emitted together! 18
Controllable emissions are dominated by transport & residential solid fuel Power 0% Industry 11% Open burning 41% Transport: Road 16% 0.1% 6.5% 3.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.8% Residential: Biofuel 18% Transport: Non-road 9% Residential: Other Residential: 1% Coal 4% 68.5% 19.0% Black carbon (BC) Organic carbon (OC) Year 2000 estimates (Bond et al., GBC 2007 + updates for IPCC AR5) 19
Expected sources of black carbon (BC) BC from solid fuels in residential sector BC from industry BC from transportation/diesel development path Note: Energy-related only excludes open burning (~equal) North America Central/South America Europe, Former USSR Asia, Middle East, Pacific Africa Total 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Power Industry Transport: Road Transport: Non-road Residential: Other Residential: Coal Residential: Biofuel Fraction "contained" % of global "contained" Bond, Streets et al., JGR 109, D14203, doi:10.1029/2003jd003697 20
General rule about BC+OC emitters (for energy-related sources) Emitter size More information Reporting requirements more stringent High emissions from small sources with little information Greater efficiency For large actors, poor efficiency = greater financial losses improved technology or controls are relatively more affordable More fuel consumed More emissions per fuel 21
Example 1: Emissions from actual household cooking are much higher than lab results PM Emission Factor (g/kg) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Box plot of Emission Factors Field (ARACHNE) Lab (ARACHNE) Open Biomass (lit) 0 Field Tests (all) Field Trad. Stove Field Impr. w/o chim. Field Impr. w/ chim. Lab Tests (all) Venkataraman & Rao (2001) Roden et al., Atmos Env 43, 1170-1181, 2009 22
Example 2: High-emitting vehicles contribute a lot to present-day emissions Fraction of data 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Truck (200) Truck (26) lab dynamometer tests roadside inspection They are severely undersampled in testing programs 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Opacity Subramanian et al., ES&T, 2009 Winijkul et al., in prep 23
Example 2: and affect future emissions even more 2000 a) A1B with superemitters 1500 b) B1 with superemitters PM Emission (Gg/yr) 1500 1000 500 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year 1000 500 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Emissions from superemitters 700 c) A1B without superemitters 600 d) B1 without superemitters 600 500 PM Emission (Gg/yr) 500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year NONE OPAC EURO I EURO II EURO III EURO IV EURO V EURO VI SUPER Yan et al., in prep 24
Particles might go away after some development Energy consumption (PJ) 300 250 Natural Gas 200 Aviation fuel Light distillat 150 Middle distilla 100 Residual oil 50 Coal Biofuel 0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 BC emissions (Gg/year) Some North American transitions 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 Bond et al, GBC 2007 Great Depression Steel! Steel! and railroads! OC emissions (Gg/year) 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 Vehicle regulations Latin America Middle East India Africa Other Asia/Pacific Europe Former USSR China North America Transition out of residential solid fuel Growth in pulverized coal (BC+OC-clean) Big question: Technology improvement vs growth 25
Carbon particles: summary Sectors & fractions of sectors: low CO2 but high black carbon Household solid fuel (cookstoves) High-emitting diesels Have significant contributions to climate-warming particles & gases But not on the climatechange radar Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Other gases Particulate Matter (PM) Small sources matter, especially when emissions depend on process 26
3. Sustainability when? How do we manage climate change now vs climate change later? 27
A devilish dilemma! Reducing sulfur (cooling) emissions is GOOD for health (immediate benefits) BAD for climate (removes mask from warming) Some climate tipping points look close Partial solution: Reduce emissions of warming air pollutants? 2007 Arctic sea ice, compared with median 28
Reductions in greenhouse gases & black carbon are different solutions to climate change Greenhouse gases (lifetime = decades) Will build up in the atmosphere Reduced emissions affect atmospheric concentration slowly Affect snow and ice indirectly, by warming ocean & atmosphere Long-term management challenge Black carbon (lifetime = days to weeks) Will vanish eventually Reduced emissions affect atmospheric concentration immediately Can melt snow and ice directly, by changing their reflectivity Possible quick-fix contribution 29
Some people like fast action! Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton: There are also steps we must take to protect the environment. For example, we know that short-lived carbon forcers [sic] like methane, black carbon, and tropospheric ozone contribute significantly to the warming of the Arctic. And because they are short lived, they also give us an opportunity to make rapid progress if we work to limit them. April 6, 2009 Vice President Al Gore: Soot, also known as black carbon, from engines, forest fires and partially burned fuel was collecting in the Arctic where it was creating a haze of pollution that absorbs sunlight and warms the air. It was also being deposited on snow, darkening its surface and reducing the snow's ability to reflect sunlight back into space. April 27, 2009 30
Questions TO YOU: How might we manage human impacts on climate in the near-term versus long-term? How might we balance positive and negative steps toward sustainable energy use? example: Improve health but warm climate 31
Take-home messages Many pollutants affect climate it s more than just the greenhouse effect Small sources matter, especially when emissions depend on process A broad portfolio of solutions is available when, where and who are considerations 32
Questions? 33