GLOBAL WARMING IS HAPPENING GLOBAL WARMING WILL BE VERY HARD TO STOP (By John B. Wheeler, member Potomac River Association) READ ON AND SEE WHY YOU NEED TO BE WORRIED The Outline of what follows: 1 The fact of rising global temperatures pp. 2 2 What creates global warming pp. 3-4 3 How global warming will damage the U.S. & the World pp. 4-5 4 What is responsible for global warming Humans pp.6 5 Composition of Greenhouse Gasses (GG) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) = 77% of the total, by far the worst pollutant pp. 7 6 Why Greenhouse Gasses have grown & why Global Warming will be so hard to stop pp. 8 7 A focus on CO2 Polluters: 7.1 CO2 Pollution by Region over Time pp. 9 7.2 Which Countries are the worst CO2 polluters both in total tons and in tons/person - pp. 10 7.3 Which Countries have done the most to reduce CO2 pollution in tons/person pp. 11 7.4 Which Countries have actually increased CO2 pollution both in tons/person and in total kilotons pp. 12-13 8 Why global warming will be very hard to stop/reverse pp.14 9 Thoughts on how to stop/reverse global warming pp. 15
Global Warming Is Happening (Source: NASA)
What is Causing Global Warming (Source: NASA) Certain gases in the atmosphere block heat from escaping. Long-lived gases that remain semipermanently in the atmosphere and do not respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature are described as "forcing" climate change. Gases, such as water vapor, which respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature are seen as "feedbacks." Gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect include: Water vapor. The most abundant greenhouse gas, but importantly, it acts as a feedback to the climate. Water vapor increases as the Earth's atmosphere warms, but so does the possibility of clouds and precipitation, making these some of the most important feedback mechanisms to the greenhouse effect. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). A minor but very important component of the atmosphere, carbon dioxide is released through natural processes such as respiration and volcano eruptions and through human activities such as deforestation, land use changes, and burning fossil fuels. Humans have increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration by a third since the Industrial Revolution began. This is the most important long-lived "forcing" of climate change. Methane. A hydrocarbon gas produced both through natural sources and human activities, including the decomposition of wastes in landfills, agriculture, and especially rice cultivation, as well as ruminant digestion and manure management associated with domestic livestock. On a molecule-for-molecule basis, methane is a far more active greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but also one which is much less abundant in the atmosphere. Nitrous oxide. A powerful greenhouse gas produced by soil cultivation practices, especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers, fossil fuel combustion, nitric acid production, and biomass burning. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Synthetic compounds of entirely of industrial origin used in a number of applications, but now largely regulated in production and release to the atmosphere by international agreement. They are also greenhouse gases.
The Earth Needs Some Greenhouse Gasses in the Atmosphere MARS Not enough greenhouse effect: The planet Mars has a very thin atmosphere, nearly all carbon dioxide. Because of the low atmospheric pressure, and with little to no methane or water vapor to reinforce the weak greenhouse effect, Mars has a largely frozen surface that shows no evidence of life. VENUS Too much greenhouse effect: The atmosphere of Venus, like Mars, is nearly all carbon dioxide. But Venus has about 300 times as much carbon dioxide in its atmosphere as Earth and Mars do, producing a runaway greenhouse effect and a surface temperature hot enough to melt lead. How unchecked global warming will affect the United States (Source: EPA) http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/
How unchecked global warming will affect the World (Source: NASA & IPCC) Below are some of the regional impacts of global change forecast by the IPCC: North America: Decreasing snowpack in the western mountains; 5-20 percent increase in yields of rain-fed agriculture in some regions; increased frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves in cities that currently experience them. 2 Latin America: Gradual replacement of tropical forest by savannah in eastern Amazonia; risk of significant biodiversity loss through species extinction in many tropical areas; significant changes in water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation. 3 Europe: Increased risk of inland flash floods; more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion from storms and sea level rise; glacial retreat in mountainous areas; reduced snow cover and winter tourism; extensive species losses; reductions of crop productivity in southern Europe. 4 Africa: By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress; yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 percent in some regions by 2020; agricultural production, including access to food, may be severely compromised. 5 Asia: Freshwater availability projected to decrease in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia by the 2050s; coastal areas will be at risk due to increased flooding; death rate from disease associated with floods and droughts expected to rise in some regions. 6 Global Climate Change: Future Trends (Source: NASA & IPCC) Phenomena Contraction of snow cover areas, increased thaw in permafrost regions, decrease in sea ice extent Increased frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation Increase in tropical cyclone intensity Precipitation increases in high latitudes Precipitation decreases in subtropical land regions Decreased water resources in many semi-arid areas, including western U.S. and Mediterranean basin Likelihood of trend Virtually certain Very likely to occur Likely to occur Very likely to occur Very likely to occur High confidence
Who is responsible for global warming (Source: NASA & Wikipedia) A 2013 survey of 3984 abstracts from peer-reviewed papers published between 1991 and 2011 that expressed an opinion on anthropogenic global warming found that 97.1% agreed that climate change is caused by human activity. Scientists questioning the accuracy of IPCC climate projections 9 Scientists arguing that global warming is primarily caused by natural processes 26 Scientists arguing that the cause of global warming is unknown 10 Scientists arguing that global warming will have few negative [effects] - 3 Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/list_of_scientists_opposing_global_warming_consensus Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities,1and most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. The following is a partial list of these organizations, along with links to their published statements and a selection of related resources. Statement from 18 scientific associations: "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." (2009) Statement from 11 international science academies: "Climate change is real. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus
COMPOSITION OF GREENHOUSE GASSES (GG) (Source EPA)
WHY GLOBAL WARMING WILL BE SO HARD TO STOP: EVERYONE DEMANDS A SHARE OF THE ECONOMIC PIE & WITH GROWTH COMES POLLUTION (Source IPCC Draft Report 2014)
OVERVIEW of CO2 POLLUTION by REGION over TIME Developing Regions Continue to be the Worst Polluters (Source IPCC Draft Report 2014)
25 Worst CO2 Polluters (% of World's Total - avg. 2004-2010) These 21 Countries = Over 82% of World's CO2 Emissions 20 15 10 5 0 60 Worst CO2 Polluters (Tons/Person) - Avg. 2004-2010 These 21 Countries emit at least 10 Tons/Person/Year 50 40 30 20 10 0 Analysis by John B. Wheeler source data World Bank
Top 20 Best CO2 Reducers 70 60 % Decrease Tons/Person 2004-2010 50 40 30 20 10 0 20 18 Next 20 Best CO2 Reducers % Decrease Tons/Person 2004-2010 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Analysis by John B. Wheeler source data World Bank
90 80 Top 20 Continuing CO2 Polluters % Increase Tons/Person 2004-2010 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 35 30 Next 20 Continuing CO2 Polluters % Increase Ton/Person 2004-2010 25 20 15 10 5 0 Analysis by John B. Wheeler source data World Bank
120 100 Top 20 Continuing CO2 Polluters % Increase in Kilotons - 2004-2010 (excluding Afganistan) 80 60 40 20 0 60.00 50.00 Next 20 Continuing CO2 Polluters % Increase in Kilotons 2004-2010 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Analysis by John B. Wheeler source data World Bank
Why Global Warming Will Be Very Hard To Stop/Reverse 1. Development = Pollution Can't Be Stopped 2. The Developing World wants its piece of the pie = more cars, more power plants, more industrialization, more deforestation = more pollution. 3. The Developing World contains the largest populations: China (19.3), India (17.1), and the rest of Asia (18.9) alone account for 55.3% of the worlds population the place where future growth will occur. 4. Some will continue to deny global warming is happening they will resist all attempts to combat it. They will fault the science; argue that man isn't causing it; state that warming is due to natural causes and therefore unchangeable; and, use these and other reasons to block action. 5. Some will benefit from global warming. Some will be harmed by it. Conflict between these groups will slow down progress
Thoughts on Stopping or Reversing Global Warming 1. Make the science of CO2 Capturing/Absorbing/Converting the world's top priority. Incentivise with large tax credits, huge awards. 2. Establish a global schedule whereby all existing power plants are upgraded to the latest carbon reducing technology. Raise tariffs on any country which fails to adhere to this schedule. 3. Raise tariffs on any country which builds a new power plant which does not use the latest carbon reducing technology. 4. Establish a global pool of money to help poorer countries fund these projects. 5. Establish a global requirement that by 2017 every POV achieve a 50 mpg rating. Raise tariffs/taxes on any manufacturer which does not conform to this requirement. 6. Prohibit deforestation without planting quadruple the number of trees that are cut.