Natural Gas Trade as a Catalyst for Regional Market Integration Promoting regional cooperation in the Asia-Pacific gas industry, for sustainable development in the region Norio Ichino Chairman, The Japan Gas Association October 7th, 2009
Contents 1. Regional cooperation for advanced use of natural gas 2. Regional cooperation for ensuring supply security 3. Vision for the natural gas industry in the transition to a low carbon society 4. Summary - The case of Japan-
1. Regional cooperation for advanced use of natural gas Energy-related CO 2 emissions by region Gigatonnes 40 35 30 25 Asia-Pacific 50% 20 39% Africa 15 10 19% North America C. & S. America Middle East 5 Europe & Eurasia 0 1980 1990 2000 2006 2015 2020 2025 2030 (IEA World Energy Outlook 2008)
Natural gas share of primary energy supply by region 60% 50% Middle East 40% Europe & Eurasia 30% 20% 10% 0% 6.1% 8.9% 8.9% 9.3% 9.6% 10.1% 1990 2006 2015 2020 2025 2030 Latin America North America Africa Asia-Pacific (IEA World Energy Outlook 2008)
Energy efficiency by region Mtoe 4,500 4,000 Purple line : Primary energy consumption per GDP Green column: Primary energy consumption 450 400 Toe/2000$ 3,500 350 3,000 300 2,500 250 2,000 200 1,500 150 1,000 100 500 50 0 Asia-Pacific Latin America Europe & Eurasia North America 0 (IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2008)
Energy efficiency in Asia-Pacific countries Mtoe 600 500 1,879 Purple line : Primary energy consumption per GDP Green column: Primary energy consumption Toe/2000$ 2,000 400 The possibility of regional cooperation in energy-saving technologies. 1,500 300 200 100 0 Mongolia North Korea Nepal Vietnam China Myanmar Indonesia India Pakistan Cambodia Thailand Malaysia Brunei Sri Lanka Philippines Bangladesh i.e. Highly efficient CHP systems such as gas engine/turbine/fuel cell driven system, clean coal power generation technology, etc.) Korea Chinese Taipei Australia Singapore Japan (IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2008) 1,000 500 0
Cogeneration - highly efficient Gas cogeneration system LNG tanks Primary energy: 100% Conventional power generation Efficiency in LHV Thermal energy Gas Electric power holder Electric power 25-40% Usable exhaust heat 40-50% Unusable exhaust heat 20-30% Utilized Energy (Power & Heat): 70-80% Thermal power plants Primary energy: 100% Transmission network Utilized Energy (Power Only) : 38% Unused exhaust heat 60% Transmission loss 2%
Contents 1. Regional cooperation for advanced use of natural gas 2. Regional cooperation for ensuring supply security 3. Vision for the natural gas industry in the transition to a low carbon society 4. Summary - The case of Japan-
2.Regional cooperation for ensuring supply security Continuous development of gas resources Increase in trade flexibility Promote intra-regional regional gas trade Competitive price Ensuring supply security Healthy development of the natural gas industry in Asia-Pacific
Continuous development of natural n gas resources Natural gas cross-border trade (2008) N. Sea Europe 103.3 Bcm N. Africa Europe 72.0Bcm Nigeria Europe 14.6 Bcm Russia Europe 154.4Bcm M. E. Europe 8.1 Bcm Alaska Japan 1.0Bcm S. E. Asia E. Asia 65.5 Bcm In S. E. Asia 16.8 Bcm Australia E. Asia 20.2 Bcm M.E. E. Asia 41.4 Bcm World Total Asia-Pacific Pipeline 587.3 ( 72.2%) 16.8 ( 9.7%) LNG 226.5 ( 27.8%) 156.0 ( 90.3%) Total 813.8 (100.0%) 172.8 (100.0%) Canada USA 103.2 Bcm N. Africa USA 1.9 Bcm Trinidad USA 8.8 Bcm In S. America 13.6 Bcm (BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009)
Natural gas supply potential to Asia-Pacific Irkutsk Sakhalin I, Sakhalin II North Slope Kenai Turkmenistan Qatar & Expansion Pars, NIOC (Iran) Abu Dhabi India China Yemen Oman, Qalhat Arun Singapore Malaysia I, II, III Indonesia NWS Scarborough (Pilbara) Pluto Japan S. Korea (Nankai Trough - Methane Hydrate) Taiwan Natuna Brunei Badak Donggi Tangguh Gorgon Gladstone Papua New Guinea Masela (Abadi) Greater Sunrise Bayu-Undan (Darwin) Browse Basin, Ichthys US Existing LNG Projects New & Expansion Projects Existing Market Emerging Market
LNG supply and demand outlook in Asia-Pacific 300 Japan Korea LNG-Mt Taiwan India China Others 200 Total demand - High case Total demand - Low case Planned 100 Under construction LNG supply from existing projects 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan and Tokyo Gas)
Flexible trade Terms and conditions for natural gas trade: A need for flexibility Ease restrictions on LNG cargo destinations Expand into Upward Quantity Tolerance and Downward Quantity Tolerance Gas exporting countries Gas importing countries Sustainable growth for both
Competitive price Natural gas pricing : : A need for competitiveness Reasonable and acceptable price level for sustainable growth of both sellers and buyers. Less exposure to oil price fluctuations (gentler slope). Efforts by all to reduce total cost of the gas supply chain. Gas exporting countries Gas importing countries Sustainable growth for both
Contents 1. Regional cooperation for advanced use of natural gas 2. Regional cooperation for ensuring supply security 3. Vision for the natural gas industry in the transition to a low carbon society 4. Summary - The case of Japan-
3. Vision of the gas industry towards future growth - The case of Japan - Target Reduction of GHG Emissions in Japan Japan s government policy Kyoto Protocol Target Achievement Plan (March 2008) Reducing GHG emissions by 6% from 1990 level between 2008 and 2012 Formulation of mid-term target (Speech by Prime Minister Taro Aso on 10 June 2009) Formulation of mid-term target (Prime Minister Hatoyama announced at the UN climate change summit on 22 Sep 2009) Action plan for Achieving a low carbon society (July 2008) 15% from the 2005 level (8% from 1990 level) by 2020 25% from the 1990 level by 2020 60-80% from the present level by 2050
Vision of gas industry for a low carbon society Supporting 60-80% reduction of CO 2 emissions by expanding the advanced use of natural gas The First Commitment Period Post-Kyoto Period 1. Expanded use of natural gas Further efforts toward a low carbon society 2. Advanced use of natural gas (e.g. highly efficient appliances) CO 2 emission volume 3. Deployment of distributed energy systems 4. Maximum introduction of renewables 5. Construction of local hydrogen networks Reductions achieved Reducing CO 2 emissions from the consumption of other types of fossil fuels such as oil Reducing CO 2 emissions from fossil-fired power stations, etc Emission volume 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Examples of advanced use of natural gas (using natural gas with advanced energy conservation technologies) Fuel oil + conventional burners Efforts to date <STEP 1> <STEP 2> Selecting optimum fuel Switching to natural gas CO 2 emission volume Selecting equipment with better performance Use of highly efficient burners Future technological development Technological breakthroughs for reducing CO 2 emissions almost to zero 1. Higher heating efficiency (burning of oxygen, etc.) 2. Higher energy efficiency (removal of nitrogen, highly efficient heat exchange, etc.) 3. CO 2 sequestration and capture 100 75 Regenerative burner 45 0
Distributed energy systems in a low carbon society (Smart energy networks) Renewables Photovoltaic generation Wind power generation Solar thermal energy Biogas Energy expenditure Power grid networks Smart energy networks Information networks Heat supply networks City gas networks Distributed energy systems CHP Fuel cell Control systems
Highly efficient H 2 production equipment City gas H 2 Future energy system ~ integration of advanced technologies ~ Vapor H 2 separation type reformer Hospital Collective housing Sequestration and capture of highly concentrated CO 2 Hydrogen station Public hall Hotel Collective housing Center for centralized monitoring Generation efficiency of 60% or higher Collective housing Highly efficient CHP system Sequestration and capture of highly concentrated CO 2 Combination of high temperature fuel cell and gas turbine Energy infrastructure: City gas H 2 Carbon dioxide capture, transportation and storage Electricity Heat Underground storage
Summary Create closer relationships within the region Gas exporting countries Gas importing countries Ensuring supply security Advanced use of natural gas The medium-to long-term vision of the gas industry for growth: Advanced use of natural gas such as cogeneration systems Promotion of distributed energy system Harmony between renewable energy and natural gas Construction of local hydrogen networks, etc.
Thank you very much for your attention. Norio Ichino Chairman, The Japan Gas Association October 7th, 2009