Public Conference on Abrupt change in China s energy path: implications for China, Australia and the global climate Implications for Industry, Banks and Local Government Enjiang Cheng Victoria Institute of Strategic Economic Studies Victoria University June 2014 1 An Outline Rebalancing and Pollution Control policy approaches Major Economic and Social Impacts Future Policy Options 2 1
1. Policies for Rebalancing and Pollution Control (I) Approaches for rebalancing and pollution control Growth to be driven more by consumption than FAI (fixed capital investment) and exports; Development of the service industries, to reduce the dependence on the labour and energy intensive manufacturing industries; Industrial upgrading; Change in energy use, shift from coal to more clean sources of energy and improvement in energy use efficiency; De capacity for the excess capacity industries Having more direct and immediate effects on structural change and energy use; Annual targets set for de capacity Changes in bank loan conditions and lending rates for for the enterprises in the over capacity industries, both the policies and market forces 3 1. Policies for Rebalancing and Pollution Control (II) Converting sales to value added taxes for the service industries while maintaining RMB value Tax reduction for the enterprises in the service industries To encourage the flow of resources from export oriented manufacturing to the service sector Policies to support SMEs and micro enterprises Coal market reforms and the pilots on gas price reforms More strict environmental standards applied Mainly for manufacturing enterprises, such as steel makers, power plants. 4 2
2. The Major Economic and Social Impacts I 1. Resources started to flow from manufacturing to service industries FAI and GDP growth in the 2 nd industries decelerated (Charts 1 3) Some industries have been hit harder than others (Chart 4) From early 2012, China s PPI have been falling in the past 30 months; The PPI for coal has been below 90% for most of the time since 2011; PPI for ferrous and non ferrous metal, chemical materials and products and many other manufacturing products have also been in decline. In Q1 2014, the sales revenue for coal mines fell for the 1 st time since 2011, around half of the large coal mines operated at financial losses; The iron and steel industry suffered from financial losses in Q1, 45% of the firms in the industry had financial losses; Other excess capacity industries, such as cement, plat glass manufacturers, PV, have had similar experience. 5 60.0 Chart 1. Annual Growth in China's FAI % YoY, ytd (April 11 April 14) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 0.0 FAI Infra Services Manu. 6 3
30.0 28.0 26.0 24.0 22.0 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 Chart 2. FAI Growth by Sectors in China % yoy, ytd (April 13 April 14) Infra Property Services Manu Resources 7 11.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Chart 3. GDP Growth by Industries in China % yoy ytd 1st 2nd Tertiary 8 4
130.0 Chart 4. PPI for Key Mining and Manufacturing Products in China % PY=100 120.0 1 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 PPI Coal Ferrous Non Ferrous Chemical M Product 9 2. The Major Economic and Social Impacts II 2. Exporting enterprises under pressure The contribution of net exports to GDP growth trended down from around 1% in Q1 2013 to 1.4% in Q1 2014 (Chart 5); Rising labor and labor costs, RMB appreciation and changes in the demand for China s exports contributed to the squeeze in the margin for exporting enterprises; 3. More financial resources have moved to SMEs in the service sector According to China s CBRC, institutional loans to Micro small enterprises went up by around 20.8% by Nov 2013, 6 ppts higher than the growth in other loans (loan size < = 2 5 million for joint stock banks, <= 1m for city and rural commercial banks). The loans have been made available at higher prices (15 20% nominal) Partial financial deregulation on deposit rates increased competition pushed small banks into MSE lending Help to solve the unemployment problems caused by manufacturing decapacity many privately MSEs financed are in the service industries 10 5
7 Chart 5. Changes in Contribution to China's GDP Growth % ytd (2011 14) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 FCE GCF Net Export 11 2. The Major Economic and Social Impacts III 4. The Regional Impacts Impact on resource (esp. coal) rich provinces, Shanxi, Shaanxi, IMAR, Heilongjiang provinces (chart 6) From Q1 2011 to 2014, GDP growth rate for China decelerated from 9.8 7.4%, by 2.4 ppts. During the same period, the growth rate fell by 7.3 ppts for Shanxi, 4.4 ppts for Shannxi, 6.3 ppts for IMAR and 9.1 ppts for Heilongjiang. The marked fall in GDP growth in 2014 could be attributed to the changes in the criteria for the assessment of local governments and officials, the changing weight for GDP growth; All the four provinces have rich coal resources. Heilongjiang s economy is heavily dependent on resources (oil and coal), depletion oil and coal resources, fall in both resource output and prices. Manufacturing focuses on coal and petrol chemical products, hit by slower export growth. 12 6
Chart 6. Growth in China's Resource Rich Regions %, yoy, Q1 18.0 16.0 14.0 8.0 9.8 7.9 7.7 7.4 12.8 10.3 9.5 13.7 11.2 9.9 7.3 9.1 9.0 13.6 13.0 11.2 9.2 6.0 5.5 4.0 2.9 2.0 0.0 China Shanxi IMAR Heilongjiang Shaanxi 03/2011 03/2012 03/2013 03/2014 13 2. The Major Economic and Social Impacts IV 4. The Regional Impact Impact on exporting oriented coastal regions Export oriented coastal provinces are affected to a less extent than resource rich provinces in the north and west (Chart 7), however some cities have been affected morel such as Wenzhou in Zhejiang and Wuxi in Jiangsu Province The case of Hebei where GDP growth dropped by 7 ppts from Q1 2011 14, for structural change and air pollution control in Beijing Tian Hebei province, large de capacity campaigns in Nov 2013 and Feb 2014, many thousands of workers have lost their jobs. By 2017, the de capacity target for the steel production in the province is 60 million tons, it is estimated that about 600,000 jobs in steel and related industries will be affected. 14 7
14.0 Chart 7. Growth in China's Coastal Regions % yoy, Q1 8.0 9.8 7.9 10.5 8.5 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.2 8.5 7.0 7.8 7.0 11.6 9.8 9.7 8.8 10.4 7.1 8.3 7.0 11.2 9.7 9.1 6.0 4.0 4.2 2.0 0.0 China Guangdong Shanghai Jinagsu Zhejiang Hebei 03/2011 03/2012 03/2013 03/2014 15 2. The Major Economic and Social Impacts V The local banking and property markets The effects of the slump in coal prices and export revenues have spread to the financial industries with rising non performing loans and the property markets: Erdos in IMAR, Yulin in Shaanxi Province and Wenzhou in Zhejiang Province Raising of funds and bank loans channeled to the property markets, following low export prices, Erdos and Wenzhou. Rising in Non performing bank loans, could be higher than reported Local Fiscal resources Incomes from land sales for the 2 nd and 3 rd tier cities affected by excess capacity, exports and resource prices; Reduction in tax incomes from de capacity and resource industries More local budget expenditures for dealing with laid off workers and closed factories. 16 8
2. The Major Economic and Social Impacts VI 5. Impact on jobs Returned migrant workers Unemployment became more visible in rural areas, 40 55 years old unskilled workers returning home, with no social security and very limited farm incomes, many have children at schools or universities to support, fell back into poverty; Questions raised for the reforms in land ownership and use rights and enlarged farm scale. Fresh University Graduates Over 7 million for this academic year and will graduate in this summer 17 3. Future Policy Options (I) With further growth slow down, micro, or large stimulus? It appears that the micro stimulus has not worked as expected The effect of increased money and credit supply on GDP growth has been declining over time, money be channeled into the property sector, over supply of infrastructure in certain areas; Reforms in energy prices to improve energy use efficiency Reform of State owned enterprises, some dilemma De capacity: by scale, small scale privately owned manufacturing factories and mines dismantled Economic efficiency, environmental standard, and industrial upgrading 18 9