Roadmap for Solar PV Michael Waldron Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency OECD/IEA 2014
IEA work on renewables IEA renewables website: http://www.iea.org/topics/renewables/ Renewable Policies and Measures Database: http://www.iea.org/topics/renewables/renewablesiea/policiesmeasuresdatabasepams/ Renewables analysis also a crucial part of other IEA work: e.g. World Energy Outlook, Energy Technology Perspectives, Tracking Clean Energy Progress
An Energy Revolution is needed 2011 6DS 2DS 2DS hi-ren Generation today: Fossil fuels: 68% Renewables: 20% Generation 2DS 2050: Renewables: 65-79% Fossil fuels: 20-12% OECD/IEA 2013
Where are we in the short to medium term?
TWh Strong momentum for renewable electricity Global renewable electricity production, historical and projected 7 500 7 000 6 500 6 000 5 500 5 000 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 Historical data and estimates Forecast 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Hydropower Bioenergy Natural gas 2013 Onshore wind Offshore wind Solar PV Nuclear 2013 Geothermal STE/CSP Ocean % total generation (right axis) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Renewable electricity projected to scale up by 45% from 2013 to 2020
Dynamic solar markets Global PV market 39-40 GW in 2014 (37-38 GW in 2013) 6.2 10.6 9.7 Top 5 Fragmented landscape >2 <2 Australia, Europe slowing on large-scale; large-scale growing in South Africa, US Rooftop growing in the US, resilient in Australia PV asset finance grew 15% over 2013 Continued cost reductions Si & TF module costs down 9-15% All other costs down, incl. soft costs Record-low bid prices per kwh in 2014
USD 2013/kW Renewable investment costs falling 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 Weighted average annual renewable investment costs, historical and projected OECD 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 China 0 0 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Hydro Bioenergy Onshore wind Offshore wind Solar PV residential/commercial Solar PV utility 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 Other non-oecd Notes: Average unit investment costs are based on gross additions, which include capacity refurbishments that are typically lower cost than new capacity. Costs vary over time due to technology changes as well as where deployment occurs in a given year.. With scale up of deployment and learning, investment costs of most dynamic technologies (solar PV and onshore wind) continue to fall Large scale wind and solar now increasingly competitive
USD 2013/kW Solar PV investment costs continue to decline 6 000 Typical solar PV system prices, by segment, beginning year 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 Australia 2013 Australia 2014 China 2013 China 2014 France 2013 France 2014 Germany 2013 Germany 2014 Italy 2013 Italy 2014 Japan 2013 Residential rooftop Commercial rooftop Utility ground-mounted Japan 2014 United States 2013 United States 2014 Still, wide cost ranges persist between markets, largely due to differences in soft costs
Cost of capital drives costs.. competition drives cost reduction Components of solar PV generation costs Average awarded tender prices under South Africa Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme Cost of capital an increasingly important component of cost WACC can be reduced by: Sustainable long-term power purchase agreements that provide revenue certainty and facilitate access to debt and equity capital markets Reducing non-economic barriers, reducing grid integration risks, increasing the creditworthiness of off-takers and reducing currency risks Competition for long term PPAs have been effective at driving cost reductions
Generation costs for solar PV falling rapidly USD 2013/MWh 600 500 400 300 200 100 Historical and projected LCOEs for typical solar PV systems, beginning year Utility ground-mounted 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 600 500 400 300 200 100 Commercial rooftop 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Global reference 600 500 400 300 200 100 Residential rooftop Projections Projections Projections 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Growing economic competitiveness of utility-scale solar PV, with fewer incentives, versus other bulk power sources At present, the combination of low financing costs, low system prices and excellent resources remains exceptional Large ranges still exist between markets, i.e. China at low end, Japan at high end
Increasing examples of wind and solar PV costs comparable to new-build alternatives Recent long-term remuneration contract prices (e.g. auctions and FITs) Ireland 69 $/MWh Germany 67-100 $/MWh US 48 $/MWh US ~75 $/MWh UK 75-120 $/MWh UK 120 $/MWh Turkey 73 $/MWh China 80-100 $/MWh Onshore wind Utility PV Chile 89 $/MWh 85 $/MWh Brazil 81 $/MWh Brazil 54 $/MWh SA 76 $/MWh Dubai 60 $/MWh 60 $/MWh SA 76 $/MWh India 88 $/MWh Australia 65 $/MWh Transition to new era of economic attractiveness for renewables where good resource and appropriate policy and regulatory framework are in place
Even with lower oil and gas prices, renewables can compete against new fossil-fuel generation USD/MWh 300 Weighted average annual renewable investment costs, historical and projected 250 LCOE New OCGT 200 150 LCOE New CCGT Range of solar PV costs from previous slide 100 50 0 USA: avg HH spot, Jan 2015 EU: avg NG import, Jan 2015 Japan: avg contracted spot LNG, Jan 2015 Japan: avg contracted spot LNG, Mar 2014 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 USD/MMBTU Note: Based on EGC median case, LCOE for OCGT is calculated using a 15% capacity factor and 7% discount rate and LCOE for CCGT is calculated using a 65% capacity factor and 7% discount rate. No carbon pricing is included in LCOEs. Range of wind costs from previous slide
USD/MWh Socket parity emerging as potential deployment driver for distributed PV 1 200 LCOE of residential PV vs variable portion of electricity tariff 1 000 800 600 400 200 LCOE Variable Portion of Residential Rate 0 2010 2013 2010 2013 2010 2013 2010 2013 2010 2013 2010 2013 2010 2013 2010 2013 Australia France Germany Italy Korea Mexico Netherlands United Kingdom Economic attractiveness from offsetting electricity bill requires self-using most of the PV electricity Currently limits potential, in particular for households Reaching socket parity is a driver for private actors But PV may still have significant impact on total system costs, in particular depending on allocation of fixed network costs
Rooftop PV proves resilient Commercial in the US Residential in Australia
kw kw kw kw kw Possible self-consumption (SC) varies uction (Residential) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 Match of PV supply and power demand for a residential/commercial customer in France Day of peak production (Residential) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5 Day of peak injection (Residential) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5 Day of peak injection (Residential) Consumption Consumption PV Injection-Withdrawal PV Injection-Withdrawal 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0-20.0-40.0-60.0-80.0-100.0 Week of high production (Office 120.0 building) 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0-20.0-40.0-60.0-80.0-100.0 Week of high production (Office building) Self-consumption higher for: Some office and commerce buildings with high daily consumption, and relatively small systems on multistorey dwellings Self-consumption potentially increased with DSI, storage Source: ETP 2014, EDF
Distributed PV at grid-parity: 3 options OECD/IEA 2014 16
Strong medium-term outlook for solar PV Solar PV annual capacity additions (GW) Strong growth in emerging markets and some OECD areas Policy debates over distributed PV a source of forecast uncertainty This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, OECD/IEA city or 2015 area.
GW Solar PV deployment segments vary by market GW 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Cumulative capacity Global solar PV capacity and deployment by market segment 15 10 5 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 25 20 Annual additions Residential-scale Commercial-scale Utility-scale Off-grid Utility-scale and commercial-scale systems should each account for roughly 40% of capacity growth, followed by residential (17%) and off-grid (1%) In Europe, development more in commercial/residential systems Utility-scale driven by markets with excellent resources, e.g. Western China, the US Southwest, India, the Middle East, Africa and the non-oecd Americas Still, a significant amount of distributed growth should occur in some of these markets
Cumulative capacity (GW) Higher solar PV under enhanced case 600 Solar PV cumulative capacity, baseline versus enhanced case 500 400 300 200 100 0 2013 2020 2020 Baseline Baseline Enhanced High Rest of World Australia France United Kingdom India Italy United States Japan Germany China Average annual market under baseline case = 38 GW (similar to 2013 growth) With certain market and policy enhancements - Fair rules and appropriate electricity rate design for allocating the costs and benefits from fastgrowing distributed solar PV Greater implementation of ambitious policy aims (e.g. Middle East) Faster-than-expected decreases in solar PV costs Solar PV could top 500 GW globally in 2020, with average market of 47-54 GW pa
Annual capacity additions in GW Medium term solar PV market forecast 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Residential Commercial Utility Off-grid Enhanced case New markets and scale up of distributed PV rooftop are main uncertainties Base case possibly increased
Where do we need to go to meet long-term objectives?
Rapid scale-up needed to meet climate change objectives in IEA scenarios Capacities required by 2025 GW 6DS 2DS 2DS hi-ren PV 366 560 823 STE (CSP) 15 68 116 Wind land 717 1129 1282 Wind offshore 37 101 137 Generation required by 2025 TWh 6DS 2DS 2DS hi-ren PV 468 742 1108 STE (CSP) 52 214 353 Wind land 1489 2460 2795 Wind offshore 108 332 460 OECD/IEA 2014
New vision: PV grows faster and beyond previous scenario Solar PV reaches 16% share of total electricity in hi-ren scenario OECD/IEA 2014
Solar PV module costs to decline further 2020 2015 2025 2030 2035 2025 2030 2035 OECD/IEA 2014 Current vision: learning rate ~20% Regression 1976-2014
But cost declines may proceed faster than expected OECD/IEA 2014 Alternative vision: learning rate ~23% Regression 1976-2003
Commercial 1-sun module efficiencies Note: SPW stands for SunPower, HIT S/P stands for Heterojunction Intrisic Thin layer Sanyo/Panasonic. Source: De Wild-Scholten, M. (2013), Energy payback time and carbon footprint of commercial PV systems, Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells, No. 119, pp. 296-305.
Integrating large shares of PV is a challenge Expected evolution of the net load of a typical spring day in California Flexibility of other power system components Grids Generation Storage Demand Side High shares of PV (and wind) require more flexible power systems
Complementary roles of PV and STE Thanks to thermal storage, STE is generated on demand when the sun sets while demand often peaks OECD/IEA 2014
Long term scenario of the Technology Roadmap Recent bids PV could provide 16% of global electricity by 2050 and 20% of CO2 emission cuts Based on cautious cost assumptions and 8% WACC Key factor will be flexibility of power systems to integrate large share of v-re; STE will play a complementary role to PV
Shares vary significantly by region Regional Power Generation Mixes by 2050
Detailed Actions and milestones SYSTEM INTEGRATION - Improve Forecast - Optimise electricity markets for v-re - Increase Power system flexibility
Detailed actions and milestones POLICY AND FINANCE - Set / update long-term targets - Predictable policy framework to de-risk financing - In new & emerging PV markets - Permitting and connecting - In mature PV markets - Progressively expose to market signals - Facilitate distributed PV generation and self-consumption
Concluding remarks Renewables including wind and solar PV are increasingly competitive, even in a lower fossil price regime High levels of financial support no longer required if appropriate market and regulatory framework in place Policies should focus on creating the right market and regulatory frameworks Electricity market designs sub-optimal today for low-carbon generation
Selected messages to policy makers 1. Set or update long-term targets Consistent with overall energy strategies Taking into account past and future cost reductions 2. Develop market designs in a system-approach, e.g: Fair rules for residential and commercial PV rooftops Time-of-delivery remuneration to take full advantage of dispatchable and flexible generation from STE 3. De-risk financing with predictable policies Both capital-intensive technologies Policy predictability most effective and efficient way to reduce risk, thereby improving competitiveness OECD/IEA 2014