WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2002 Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division
World Energy Outlook Series World Energy Outlook 1998 World Energy Outlook - 1999 Insights: Looking at Energy Subsidies: Getting the Prices Right World Energy Outlook 2000 World Energy Outlook 2001 Insights: Assessing Today s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow s Growth World Energy Outlook 2002 World Energy Outlook 2003 Insights: Global Energy Investment Outlook (forthcoming)
World Primary Energy Demand 6,000 Mtoe 5,000 4,000 3,000 Oil Natural gas Coal 2,000 1,000 Nuclear power Hydro power Non-hydro renewables 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Gas grows fastest in absolute terms & non-hydro renewables fastest in % terms, but oil remains the dominant fuel in 2030
1. Security of Energy Supplies
62% of the increase in world demand between 2000 and 2030 comes from developing countries, especially in Developing Asia Regional Shares in World Primary Energy Demand 100% 80% 13 18 24 30 34 43 60% 19 11 11 10 40% 20% 69 57 58 54 47 0% 1971 1990 2000 2010 2030 OECD Transition economies Developing countries
Increase in World Primary Energy Production 7,000 6,000 5,000 Mtoe 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1971-2000 2000-2030 OECD Transition economies Developing countries Almost all the increase in production occurs outside the OECD, up from 60% in 1971-2000
Share of Trade in World Fossil-Fuel Fuel Production 6,000 5,000 Mtoe 4,000 3,000 2,000 45% 58% 16% 28% 9% 14% 1,000 0 2000 2030 2000 2030 2000 2030 Oil Gas Coal Share of inter-regional trade (%) Energy trade between regions more than doubles between now and 2030, most of it in the form of oil
World-Oil Demand 140 120 100 mb/d 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 OECD Transition economies Developing countries Oil demand grows in every region, fastest in the developing countries
World Oil Demand by Sector 2000 2030 Industry 19% Other sectors 16% Industry 16 % Other sectors 14% Power generation 10% Power Generation 6% Transport 55% Transport 64% 75 mbd 120 mbd Around three-quarters of the increase in demand for oil will come from the transport sector.
World-Oil Production 120 100 80 mb/d 60 40 20 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 OPEC Non-OPEC Reliance on OPEC oil progressively increases
Oil-Import Dependence 100 net imports as per cent of oil supply 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD N.America South Asia China East Asia 2000 2010 2030 Asia sees the biggest jump in import dependence, while OECD imports also continue to rise, especially in Europe
The Middle East strengthens its position as the world s largest oil exporter Net Oil Trade, 2030 5 16 13 1 1 1 3 8 46 2 5 10 6 3 7 1 0 US and Canada Other OECD Europe Africa Indonesia Mexico Brazil Other Latin America European Union Russia Other transition economies India Other South Asia Middle East Japan, Australia and New Zealand Korea China Other East Asia Net exports Net imports Mb/d
World Power-Generation Capacity Additions, 2000-2030 2030 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 GW 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Gas Coal Hydro Other renewables Oil Nuclear Fuel cells More than 40% of new capacity worldwide is gas-fired
Ordered Power-Generation Capacity Additions to 2010 250 200 150 GW 100 50 0 US and Canada Japan EU15 Coal Oil Gas Other
Proven Gas Reserves 6.4 7.7 56.7 58.5 8.2 11.6 14.9 World total: 164 tcm at 1 January 2001 Ultimate remaining resources (including proven reserves) are an estimated 453-527 tcm
Net oil imports surge from 1.7mb/d in 2001 to 9.8mb/d in 2030 China: Oil Balance 14 12 10 mb/d 8 6 4 Net Exports Net Imports 2 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Production Consumption
2. Investment in Energy Infrastructure
World Installed Power- Generation Capacity 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 GW 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 Existing capacity New capacity Nearly 5,000 GW of capacity is built in 2000-2030, almost half in developing countries
Cumulative worldwide investment in new power plants amount to $ 4.2 trillion, more than half in developing countries World Power-Generation Investment, 2000-2030 2030 900 800 700 $ billion (2000 dollars) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 North America Europe Pacific China E. Asia Latin America South Transition Africa Asia economies Middle East
3. Environment
Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions 40,000 35,000 million tonnes of CO2 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 World OECD Transition economies Developing countries World emissions increase by 1.8 % per year to 38 billion tonnes in 2030 70% above 2000 levels
World Primary Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions Average annual per cent growth rate 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1971-2000 2000-2030 Energy demand CO2 emissions Emissions increase faster than demand over the next 30 years, because the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix grows
OECD CO 2 Emissions 15,000 14,000 13,000 Mt of CO2 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Alternative Scenario Reference Scenario Emissions in the Alternative Scenario stabilise towards the end of the projection period
4. Energy Poverty
Map of Global Energy Poverty 18 570 28 20 801 815 221 332 509 530 56 96 Millions of People Without Electricity Millions of People Relying on Biomass 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity, 80% of them in South Asia and sub-saharan Africa
Energy and Poverty - Access to Electricity 1.6 billion electricity people today have no access to About 80% of these people are located in India (580 million) and sub-saharan Africa (500 million) Four out of five people lacking access to electricity live in rural areas By 2030, in the absence of radical new policies, 1.4 billion will still have no electricity
Energy and Poverty - Traditional Biomass Use Today 2.4 billion people in developing countries rely heavily on traditional biomass for cooking and heating. The use of biomass in traditional and inefficien ways have significant implications: Productivity Health Gender Environment By 2030, over 2.6 billion people in developing countries will continue to rely on biomass.
Implications of the WEO 2002 Projections The projections highlight 4 strategic energy challenges: security of energy supplies investment in energy infrastructure threat of environmental damage caused by energy use uneven access of the world s population to modern energy Governments will have to take strenuous action if these concerns are to be addressed