ENERGY SLIDESHOW Updated: February 14, 2018
ENERGY PRICES www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
Brent & WTI & Crude Brent Oil Crude Oil Dollars per barrel 140 Brent (Feb 9 = $65.50) WTI (Feb 9 = $62.01) 120 100 95% confidence bands for WTI 80 60 40 20 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 2/9/18. Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration.
Henry Hub Natural & Marcellus Gas Natural Gas Dollars per million British thermal units 7 6 Henry Hub (Feb 9 = $2.72) Marcellus (Feb 9 = $2.74) 95% confidence bands for Henry Hub 5 4 3 2 1 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 2/9/18. Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of Dominion South, Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal.
Retail Gasoline & Diesel Regular Gasoline & Highway Diesel Retail price per gallon PADD Gasoline Diesel 1 $2.61 $3.11 1A $2.64 $3.15 1B $2.72 $3.31 1C $2.51 $2.97 2 $2.46 $3.02 3 $2.33 $2.85 4 $2.51 $2.97 5 $3.14 $3.43 U.S. $2.61 $3.06 NOTES: Prices are for 2/12/18. PADDs are Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts. Prices include all taxes. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
GLOBAL PETROLEUM www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
World Oil Supply & Demand World Oil Supply & Demand Million barrels per day 102 100 Q4 2017 99.1 98 96 World production 98.7 94 92 World consumption Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
World Oil Supply & Demand Implied Change in World Oil Stocks Million barrels per day 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
OPEC OPEC Oil Production Crude Oil Production & Rig Count Million barrels per day 33.5 33.0 32.5 32.0 31.5 31.0 30.5 30.0 29.5 29.0 Jan 32.4 28.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
OECD Commercial Inventories OECD Commercial Oil Inventories Million barrels 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 Jan 2866 2010-2014 average 2,600 2,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
OECD Commercial Inventories World Oil Production Outages Million barrels per day 3.0 2.5 OPEC 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Non-OPEC Jan 1.21 0.43 0.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
NATIONAL OUTLOOK www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
U.S. Oil U.S. Production Oil & Gas Production & Rig Count U.S. crude oil production Million barrels per day U.S. natural gas production Billion cubic feet per day 11 110 10 100 9 90 8 80 7 70 6 60 5 50 4 40 3 30 2 20 1 10 1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017 NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count U.S. crude oil production Million barrels per day 17 15 13 11 Nov 10.04 U.S. oil rig count Number of active rigs 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 9 7 5 Jan 759 900 700 500 3 300 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 2/6/18. Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline Demand U.S. Oil & Gas Employment Number of jobs (thousands) 420 380 340 300 260 220 180 140 Support activities for oil and gas operations Oil and gas extraction 100 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Dec 246 Jan 146 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Crude Oil & Product Inventories Commercial Crude Oil Inventories Million barrels 550 2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2017 2016 2015 500 450 400 Jan 418 Nov 452 Dec 422 350 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 2/7/18. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline Demand Natural Gas Inventories Trillion cubic feet 4.5 2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2017 2016 2015 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Nov 3.7 Dec 3.1 2.0 1.5 Jan 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 2/7/18. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline Gasoline DemandInventories Million barrels 270 2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2017 2016 2015 260 250 240 230 Jan 242 Nov 225 Dec 235 220 210 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 2/7/18. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline Distillate DemandInventories Million barrels 180 2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2017 2016 2015 170 160 150 140 130 120 Jan 138 Nov 133 Dec 141 110 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 2/7/18. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline Demand Vehicle Miles Traveled Billion miles traveled 275 270 Nov 270 265 260 255 250 245 240 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide. SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration.
Gasoline Demand Gasoline Consumption Million barrels per day 9.8 2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2017 2016 2015 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 Jan 8.81 Nov 9.14 Dec 9.13 8.4 8.2 8.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTES: Square marks based on weekly data as of 2/7/18. Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
REGIONAL ACTIVITY www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
Texas Texas Oil Production Oil & Gas Production & Rig Count Texas crude oil production Million barrels per day 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Texas natural gas production Billion cubic feet per day 40 35 30 25 20 15 1.0 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 10 NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Texas Oil Production & Rig Count Texas Oil Production & Rig Count Texas crude oil production Million barrels per day 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 Texas rig count Number of active rigs 950 850 750 650 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 Jan 466 Nov 3.89 550 450 350 250 1.5 150 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
Texas Texas Mining Oil & Sector Gas Employment Number of jobs (thousands) 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 Support activities for mining Oil and gas extraction Dec 144.68 76.92 50 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dallas Fed.
12-Month Total Rig Change by County *Change in total rigs, from 1/27/2017 to 1/26/2018. SOURCES: Baker Hughes;.
3-Month Total Rig Change by County *Change in total rigs, from 10/27/2017 to 1/26/2018. SOURCES: Baker Hughes;.
12-Month Oil Rig Change by County *Change in oil rigs, from 1/27/2017 to 1/26/2018. SOURCES: Baker Hughes;.
3-Month Oil Rig Change by County *Change in oil rigs, from 10/27/2017 to 1/26/2018. SOURCES: Baker Hughes;.
12-Month Gas Rig Change by County *Change in gas rigs, from 1/27/2017 to 1/26/2018. SOURCES: Baker Hughes;.
3-Month Gas Rig Change by County *Change in gas rigs, from 10/27/2017 to 1/26/2018. SOURCES: Baker Hughes;.
Crude Oil Production by State NOTE: Data shown are monthly, for November 2017. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Natural Gas Production by State NOTES: Data shown are monthly, for November 2017. Series depicted is marketed natural gas production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Crude Oil Production by Region Million barrels per day 3.5 3.0 Permian Basin 2.5 2.0 1.5 Eagle Ford Bakken 1.0 Niobrara 0.5 Other 0.0 areas 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NOTE: Series depict estimates after November 2017. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Natural Gas Production by Region Billion cubic feet per day 30 25 Appalachia 20 15 10 Permian Basin Haynesville 5 Other areas Eagle Ford 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NOTE: Series depict estimates after November 2017. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Energy Survey Business Activity In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm s level of business activity increased, not changed or decreased? Diffusion index 100 80 60 40.1 41.8 37.3 38.1 40 26.7 27.3 20 13.8 0-20 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017-40 -60-42.1-80 -100 NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease. Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter. SOURCE:.
Breakeven Prices for New Wells Dallas Fed Energy Survey In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well? Dollars per barrel 100 90 80 Permian 70 (Midland) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 SCOOP/ STACK $46 $47 Eagle Ford $48 Other U.S. (non-shale) Permian (Central Permian Platform) (Delaware) $48 $50 $53 Other U.S. (shale) 13 8 4 10 13 40 8 Number of responses $55 NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses. 62 E&P firms answered this question from March 15-23, 2017. SOURCE:.
Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells Dallas Fed Energy Survey In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells? Dollars per barrel 70 Permian 60 (Midland) 50 40 30 20 10 $24 SCOOP/ STACK Eagle Ford $27 $29 Permian (Delaware) Permian (Central Platform) Other U.S. (shale) $33 $33 $35 Other U.S. (non-shale) $38 0 13 7 5 9 11 8 39 Number of responses NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses. 60 E&P firms answered this question from March 15-23, 2017. SOURCE:.
Additional Resources Energy Indicators A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector Quarterly Energy Update Concise analysis of the latest major developments and key changes facing global oil and gas markets Dallas Fed Energy Survey A quarterly assessment of energy activity as reported by 150 oil and gas firms located in the Eleventh District Energy in the 11 th District Detailed info on four major regions: the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin Other energy articles and research Click here to contact us for general information or other inquiries.