Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Mitigation and Adaptation Our Common Future Hannover, 4th November 2010 Volkswagen Stiftung
Tipping Points in the Earth System T. M. Lenton & H. J. Schellnhuber (Nature Reports Climate Change, 2007) 2
Burning Embers Year 2100 range (IPCC 2007) Potential policy-relevant tipping elements that could be triggered by global warming this century, with shading indicating their uncertain thresholds. For each threshold, the transition from white to yellow indicates a lower bound on its proximity, and the transition from yellow to red, an upper bound. The degree of uncertainty is represented by the spread of the colour transition. T. M. Lenton & H. J. Schellnhuber (Nature Reports Climate Change, 2007)
World Map of Wealth Capital stock per person very low low medium high very high Source: Füssel (2007) 4
World Map of Carbon Debt Carbon emissions per person from fossil fuel burning (1950-2003) very low low medium high very high Source: Füssel (2007) 5
Carbon Debt and Wealth 10 4 P: Fossil CO 2 emissions (kg C per person and year) 10 3 10 2 10 1 Ethiopia India Bangladesh China Egypt South Africa Brazil Russia Mexico United States Germany France Fitting line: ln P=0.987 ln K+c Japan 10 3 10 4 10 5 K: Capital stock (US$2000 per person) Source: Füssel (2007) 6
The Economics of Atmospheric Stabilisation 3 stabilisation targets with different probabilities to reach the 2 target: 550ppm-eq, 450ppm-eq, 400ppm-eq Energy-related CO 2 emissions Baseline 550ppm-eq 450ppm-eq 400ppm-eq Negative emissions ~15% prob. ~50% prob. ~75% prob. Year Knopf, Edenhofer et al. (2009) 7
The Great Transformation Primary Energy Consumption [EJ] REMIND-R, ADAM 450ppm-eq, 4/6/2009, Steckel/Knopf Negative CO 2 emissions CO 2 emissions Based on IEA Data (1971-2005) and REMIND-R results for 450ppm-eq (ADAM); Graphic by Steckel/Knopf (PIK) 8
Technology Options for Low Stabilisation 550ppm-eq high biomass potential with all options no nuclear beyond baseline low biomass potential no CCS no renewables beyond baseline 400ppm-eq xx xx xxx Knopf, Edenhofer et al. (2009) 400 ppm neither achievable without CCS nor without an extension of renewables Biomass potential dominates the mitigation costs of low stabilisation Nuclear is not important beyond its (high) use in the baseline 9
Copenhagen Pledges Not Enough for 2 C Rogelj, Meinshausen et al. 2010 10
Source: IMF International Commodities Database 11
Renaissance of Coal 12
Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 13 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 14 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
The Supply-side of Global Warming 2000 Gas Oil Coal Biomass + CCS Carbon stocks (GtC) I n t h e g r o u n d I n t h e a t m o s p h e r e 0 16 107 106 139 1581 258 56 198 111 132 77 558 11372 210 154 154 553 230 2000 Conventional reserves Unconventional reserves Conventional resources Unconventional resources Cumulative historic use Projected use (400ppm) Coal+CCS (400ppm) Biomass+CCS (400ppm) Additional projected use (BAU) Cumulative historic carbon consumption (1750-2004), estimated carbon stocks in the ground, and estimated future consumption (2005-2100) for business-as-usual (BAU) and ambitious 400-ppm-CO 2 -eq. scenario Source: Kalkuhl, Edenhofer and Lessmann, 2009 15
Atmosphere as a Global Common Resource Extraction > 12.000 GtC Atmosphere as a limited resource ~ 230 GtC Atmosphere is a scarce resource fossil carbon is not Economic approach to deal with scarcity in an efficient way: Establish prices on scarcities How to determine scarcity price on carbon? Assigning property rights according to the scarcity of the atmosphere Distributing the emission rights according to principles of fairness and justice 16
Allocation of Emission Rights USA Japan Europe Russia Middle East Latin America Asia (Others) China India Sub-Sahara Africa Rest of the World World Per capita Per GDP C&C: Contraction & Convergence C&C with histor. Responsibility CDC: Common but Differentiated Convergence Consumption losses [%] gains losses Knopf et al. 2010 17
Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 18 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
R&D-Investment in Energy Technologies Source: Updated version of IPCC (2007), AR4 19
New Storage Technologies Andasol I, Spain Andasol I, Spain 20
Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 21 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
Reducing Deforestation: Fossil vs. LUCF CO 2 Emissions CO 2 emissions per person and year, 1950-2003 CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, and including land use change (kg C per person and year from 1950-2003) -1000-0 1000-2000 Emissions per year from fossil fuel combustion and cement production 0-100 2000-5000 Ratio 100-1000 5000-15000 Emissions per year from land use change 22
Cancun - Better REDD than dead? 23
Agriculture versus Forest Protection $ $ Demand Demand Food, Bioenergy Forests Agriculture and forest protection compete for scarce land Optimal allocation of available land Agricultural land Forests Available Land 24
Agriculture versus Forest Protection Demand Food, Bioenergy Demand $ $ Forests REDD protects forests REDD Agricultural land Available Land Forests 25
Source: IMF; FAO International Commodity Prices 26
Source: BP Statistical Energy Review; WRI
Agriculture versus Forest Protection $ Demand Demand $ Food, Bioenergy Forests Agriculture prices Rising agricultural prices (oil price, food, bioenergy) counter the effect of REDD programs Higher prices for forest protection! Agricultural land Forests Available Land 28
Supposed Effects Costs of REDD are underestimated Proposed fund solutions would have to stabilize the price on a high level to compensate the effects of rising oil prices. This is politically unlikely Including forests into fragmented emission trading systems can thus lead to higher deforestation rates than a comprehensive fund approach 29
Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 30 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
Agricultural Productivity + 40 + 20 0-20 -40 Change of agricultural production (all crops) in percent due to yield changes as a result of climate change between 1990 and 2050 Source: Müller et al. 2010 31
Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 32 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
Allocation of Emission Rights USA Japan Europe Russia Middle East Latin America Asia (Others) China India Sub-Sahara Africa Rest of the World World Per capita Per GDP C&C: Contraction & Convergence C&C with histor. Responsibility CDC: Common but Differentiated Convergence Consumption losses [%] gains losses Knopf et al. 2010 33
Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 34 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
Book Cover http://www.klima-und-gerechtigkeit.de/ 35