Discovering credit profiles across various business life stages
Introducing: Brian Poteraj Experian Piew Datta Experian
Percent of surviving businesses Survival rate* for U.S. establishments is challenging 100 79 48 34 26 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Years in business *Averaged over businesses that opened from 1994-2016. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics 3 Experian
Survival rates by industry (NAICS) Establishments opened in 2011 Large variation in 5-year survival rates among all industries Highest Agriculture (66.3%) Lowest Information (41.3%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting Construction Manufacturing Retail Trade Educational and Health services Information 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics 4 Experian
What type of information would help? 5 Experian
Experian BizSource SM National coverage Intelliscore Plus SM v2 risk distribution 60% 50% 40% 30% Non-FI / B2B Traditional trade Financial trades Credit card Installment Revolving Lease Retail card 20% 10% Trade 0% Low Risk Low-Med Risk Medium Risk Med-Hi Risk High Risk 6 Experian
The research project Randomly selected over one million currently active businesses in manufacturing, construction, retail, eating / drinking, and health services Follow businesses through trade behavior from January 2010 to December 2016 Over 10 million trades analyzed Identify credit profiles of businesses during each life stage Stratifies types of trades opened during various business life stages Retention of trades based on life stage Brand loyalty based on life stage 7 Experian
Business age Granular monthly trade behavior available 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Legend Connected points represent trades for a business Colors inside shapes represent loan types Retail Card Credit Card B2B SRVCS B2B DIST B2B Other Shape shows status worst ever status (as of 12/2016) Current to <30 DPD 31-90 DPD 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 90+DPD 8 Experian
Account type composition 9 Experian
Both financial and B2B trades opened When businesses are starting Construction uses a larger percent of financial loans vs. B2B loans Eating & Drinking uses the least percent of financial loans 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Construction Eating & Drinking Health Services Manufacturing Retail Financial Non-financial 10 Experian
Details of opened trade types When businesses are starting 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Construction Eating & Drinking Health Services Manufacturing Retail Revolving Retail Card Lease Installment Credit Card B2B Other B2B Telco B2B SUPL B2B SRVCS B2B DIST. 11 Experian
As businesses age Types of trades opened for Construction 100% As Construction companies age, the use of non-financial trades increases 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Starting Growing Stablizing Mature Financial Non-financial. 12 Experian
Percent of category As businesses age Types of trades opened for Construction 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Starting Growing Stablizing Mature B2B DIST B2B SRVCS B2B SUPL B2B Telco B2B Other Credit Card Installment Lease Retail Card Revolving. 13 Experian
Percent of category As businesses age Types of trades opened for Construction 35 30 25 Increase (as a percent) in non-financial trades: B2B Telco B2B Other Installment 20 15 10 5 0 Starting Growing Stablizing Mature B2B Telco B2B Other Installment. 14 Experian
Percent of category As businesses age Types of trades opened for Construction 25 Decrease (as a percent) in financial trades: Credit Card Retail Card 20 15 10 However, the number of Credit and Retail Cards per business is higher for mature vs. starting 5 0 Starting Growing Stablizing Mature Credit Card Retail Card. 15 Experian
As businesses age Types of trades opened for Health Services 100% As Health Services companies age, the use of non-financial trades increases later in the life stage 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Starting Growing Stablizing Mature Financial Non-financial. 16 Experian
Percent of category As businesses age Types of trades opened for Health Services 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Starting Growing Stablizing Mature B2B DIST B2B SRVCS B2B SUPL B2B Telco B2B Other Credit Card Installment Lease Retail Card Revolving. 17 Experian
Percent of Category As businesses age Types of trades opened for Health Services 25 20 Increase (as a percent) in: B2B Telco B2B Other Lease 15 10 5 0 Starting Growing Stablizing Mature B2B Telco B2B Other Lease. 18 Experian
Percent of Category As businesses age Types of trades opened for Health Services Decrease (as a percent) in: B2B DIST B2B SUPL Credit Card Retail Card However, the number of Retail Cards per business is higher for mature vs. starting 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Starting Growing Stablizing Mature B2B DIST B2B SUPL Credit Card Retail Card. 19 Experian
Consistent decrease (as a percent) in Credit and Retail cards as businesses age Credit Card Retail Card Lease Installment Revolving B2B SUPL B2B SRVCS B2B DIST B2B Other B2B TELCO Construction Eating & Drinking Health Services Manufacturing Retail As businesses age, compare types of trades opened (as a percent) to those opened during starting years 20 Experian
Retention and loyalty Attracting new customers will cost your company five times more than keeping an existing customer. Lee Resource Inc. 21 Experian
Percent of category Some B2B trades have short terms B2B opened in 2010 A significant portion of B2B trades have terms of less than one year 35 30 25 20 Otherwise the life stage of a business is not strongly related to years of trade activity 15 10 5 0 <1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 Years trade active Starting Growing Stabilizing Mature 22 Experian
Percent of category Financial trades opened in early life stage stay active longer 30 Financial opened in 2010 25 20 15 10 5 There is a stronger relationship between extending credit and life stage for financial than for non-financial trades 0 <1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 Years trade active Starting Growing Stabilizing Mature 23 Experian
Customer loyalty is more diverse in industries 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 Percent of businesses that open additional trades (at least one year later) with the same creditors Does not vary much according to life stage Variations are more related to industry 0.10 Construction Eating & Drinking Health Services Manufacturing Retail. 24 Experian
Summary Industries have various credit needs which change as the businesses develop and grow Both financial and non-financial trades are essential to understand developing business behavior Granular trade level data can be analyzed to uncover many underlying business patterns 25 Experian
Questions and answers Experian contact: Piew Datta Piew.Datta@experian.com 26 Experian
Share your thoughts about Vision 2017! Please take the time now to give us your feedback about this session. You can complete the survey at the kiosk outside. How would you rate both the Speaker and Content? 27 Experian