Building Bridges Among African Agricultural Policy Research Institutes

Building Bridges Among African Agricultural Policy Research Institutes Challenges and Opportunities T. S. Jayne, Milu Muyanga and Felix Kwame Yeboah Public Address, Center for Agriculture and Rural Development, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Bunda Campus, Malawi 25 July, 2017

Format 1. Five megatrends affecting agri-food systems in the region 2. Challenges and opportunities for African agricultural policy research institutes 3. ReNAPRI 4. Observations on possible way forward

Format 1. Five megatrends affecting agri-food systems in the region 2. Challenges and opportunities for national agricultural policy research institutes in Africa 3. RENAPRI 4. Observations on the way forward

Five inter-related trends 4

Five inter-related trends Rapid population growth 5

Five inter-related trends Rapid population growth Rapid growth in food demand 6

Five inter-related trends Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 7

Five inter-related trends Rise of investor farmers / changing farm sizes Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 8

Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm sizes Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 9

Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm and market structure Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 10

Africa s rapid population growth 12 Billions of people 10 8 6 4 2 0.92 6.1 2.1 3.8 7.2 6.8 0 2015 2050 2100 Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of world

Sub-Saharan Africa: only region of world where rural population continues to rise past 2050 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 Total Rural Population (millions) 1970 1975 China 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 India 2015 Sub-Saharan Africa Other South Asia South-East Asia 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: UN 2013 12

Population of Malawi 13

Share of labor force by age: 64% of Malawi s labor force is 15-34 years in 2016 14

Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm and market structure Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 15

SSA Total Food Imports from 7 to 40 billion USD (2001-2015) (intra SSA trade from 1 to 10 billion USD) 50 45 40 35 USD Billions 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SSA Imports from non-ssa SSA's imports from SSA

Source: authors derivation from TradeMap 2017 and FAOSTAT, 2017 17

Net cereal exports, Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-saharan Africa -30-20 -10 0 10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year MAIZE WHEAT RICE TOTAL Source: FAOSTAT, 2016

Net cereal exports, East Africa Region East Africa -10-5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Maize Wheat Rice Total NX Source: FAOSTAT, 2016

Relationship between % of rural population on degrading agricultural land and pop density Roughly 28% of rural population in SSA live on degrading agricultural land. 43 million additional people living on DAL between 2000-2010 20

Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm and market structure Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 21

Employment trends

Changes in the share of total jobs in farming, non-farm and off-farm agrifood systems, among the working age population (15 64 years) Farming 80.0 % of total FTE jobs 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Ghana (2006-2013) Nigeria (2004-2013) Rwanda (2006-2011) Tanzania (2009-2012) Uganda (2006-2012) Zambia (2006-2012) Base year End year Non-farm outside Agrifood system 80.0 % of total FTE jobs 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Ghana (2006-2013) Nigeria (2004-2013) Rwanda (2006-2011) Tanzania (2009-2012) Uganda (2006-2012) Zambia (2006-2012) Base year End year Off-farm within Agrifood System 80.0 % of total FTE jobs 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Ghana (2006-2013) Nigeria (2004-2013) Rwanda (2006-2011) Base year Tanzania (2009-2012) End year Uganda (2006-2012) Zambia (2006-2012) 23

Mean age of individuals engaged in farming, Malawi 24

Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm and market structure Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 25

Changes in farm structure in Tanzania (2008-2012), National Panel Surveys Number of farms (% of total) % growth in number of farms between initial and latest year % of total operated land on farms between 0-100 ha Farm size 2008 2012 2008 2012 0 5 ha 5,454,961 (92.8) 6,151,035 (91.4) 12.8 62.4 56.3 5 10 ha 300,511 (5.1) 406,947 (6.0) 35.4 15.9 18.0 10 20 ha 77,668 (1.3) 109,960 (1.6) 41.6 7.9 9.7 20 100 ha 45,700 (0.7) 64,588 (0.9) 41.3 13.8 16.0 Total 5,878,840 (100%) 6,732,530 (100%) 14.5 100.0 100.0 Share of farmland on farms 5-100 ha from 38% to 44% in 4 years

Changes in farm structure in Ghana (1992-2013) Ghana Number of farms % growth in number of farms % of total cultivated area 1992 2013 1992 2013 0-2 ha 1,458,540 1,582,034 8.5 25.1 14.2 2-5 ha 578,890 998,651 72.5 35.6 31.3 5-10 ha 116,800 320,411 174.3 17.2 22.8 10-20 ha 38,690 117,722 204.3 11.0 16.1 20-100 ha 18,980 37,421 97.2 11.1 12.2 >100 ha -- 1,740 - -- 3.5 Total 2,211,900 3,057,978 38.3 100 100 51.1% Source: Ghana GLSS Surveys, 1992, 2013, Jayne et al., 2016, using data from Ghana GLSS Surveys I and IV.

Changes in farm structure in Zambia (2001-2012) Farm size category Number of farms % growth in number of farms % of total cultivated area 2001 2012 2001 2012 0 2 ha 638,118 748,771 17.3 34.1 16.2 2 5 ha 159,039 418,544 163.2 45 31.7 5 10 ha 20,832 165,129 692.6 14.3 25.0 10 20 ha 2,352 53,454 2272.7 6.6 15.0 52.1% 20 100 ha -- 13,839 na -- 12.1 Total 820,341 1,399,737 100 100 Source: Zambia MAL Crop Forecast Surveys, 2001 and 2012

Characteristics of emergent farmers

Rise of the medium-scale farmers

Type 1: Urban-based investor farmer Mode of entry to medium-scale farming status: acquire farm using non-farm income Zambia Kenya (n=164) (n=180) % of cases 58 60 % men 91.4 80 Year of birth 1960 1947 Years of education of head 11 12.7 Have held a job other than farmer (%) 100 83.3 Formerly /currently employed by the public sector (%) 59.6 56.7 Current landholding size (ha) 74.9 50.1 % of land currently under cultivation 24.7 46.6 Decade when land was acquired 1969 or earlier 1.1 6 1970-79 5.1 18 1980-89 7.4 20 1990-99 23.8 32 2000 or later 63.4 25 Source: MSU, UP, and ReNAPRI Retrospective Life History Surveys, 2015

% of National Landholdings held by Urban Households 35% 32.7% 30% 26.8% 25% 22.0% 22.0% 20% 18.3% 16.8% 15% 10% 11.2% 10.9% 11.8% 5% 0% 2008 2009 2004 2010 2010 2004/2005 2010 2007 2013/2014 Ghana Kenya Malawi Rwanda Tanzania Zambia Source: Demographic and Health Surveys, various years between 2004-2014.

% of National Landholdings held by Urban Households 35% 32.7% 30% 26.8% 25% 22.0% 22.0% 20% 18.3% 16.8% 15% 10% 11.2% 10.9% 11.8% 5% 0% 2008 2009 2004 2010 2010 2004/2005 2010 2007 Source: 2013/2014 DHS Ghana Kenya Malawi Rwanda Tanzania Zambia

GINI coefficients in farm landholding Period Movement in Gini coefficient: Ghana (cult. area) 1992 à 2013 0.54 à 0.70 Kenya (cult. area) 1994 à 2006 0.51 à 0.55 Tanzania (landholdings) 2008 à 2012 0.63 à 0.69 Zambia (landholding) 2001 à 2012 0.42 à 0.49 Source: Jayne et al. 2014 (JIA) 36

Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm and market structure Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 37

Output and factor price indices, northern Tanzania 180 170 Price index (2008/9=100) 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Agricultural wage (TSH/day) Land rental rate (TSH/ha) Maize (TSH/kg) 80 2008/9 2010/11 2012/13 38

Output and factor price indices, western Tanzania 300 Adjusted price (2008/9=100) 260 220 180 140 100 Agricultural wage (TSH/day) Land rental rate (TSH/ha) Maize (TSH/kg) 60 2008/9 2010/11 2012/13 39

Output and factor price indices, rural Malawi, 2004-2013 Price index (2004=100) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2004 2005 2010 2013 Rental rate (MWK/ha) Agricultural wage (MWK/day) MWK/kg urea MWK/kg maize Sources: IHS for land and wages; FEWSNET for urea and maize

Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm and market structure Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 41

Format 1. Five megatrends affecting agri-food systems in the region 2. Challenges and opportunities for national agricultural policy research institutes in Africa 3. RENAPRI 4. A proposal

Development ecosystem Shaped by: donor priorities power relations values of those involved 43

Changing landscape of development ecosystems 1980s models do not fit 2017 realities Greater local capacity Rising awareness that sustainable development requires development of local policy guidance African governments want to rely on their own analysts and think tanks Threat: new actors competing for donor resources Why are these parallel systems developing?

Format 1. Five megatrends affecting agri-food systems in the region 2. Challenges and opportunities for national agricultural policy research institutes in Africa 3. ReNAPRI 4. Observations on way forward

ReNAPRI 9 agricultural policy research institutes in east/southern Africa Vision: to become the regional think tank of AU and AfDB Rotating secretariat Current chair: Director of IAPRI

Benefits to CARD from supporting ReNAPRI Symbiotic relationship Sharing of data, knowledge Research collaboration More competitive for regional initiatives Funding to ReNAPRI can help leverage CARD preeminence nationally

What s needed Institutions, like organisms, must adapt to changing environment or face demise Ants, bees, termites Resolution among CARD and highest levels of LUANAR to support CARD protect the queen, produce more honey undertake SWOT / strategic planning exercise website development promote exposure to CARD reports IAPRI, Tegemeo study these examples Relationship between the institute and the university

Process matters! Partnership is necessary for institutes to develop How we partner influences the outcome Therefore, need to consider our principles for partnership

Partnership principles (AAP) 1. Shared vision - mutually benefit, mutual capacity building 2. Based on trust, mutual respect, transparency, empathy, and accountability between the partners. 3. Collaboration must be sustainable beyond initial grant cycle, with a view toward long-term collaboration 4. Founded on clarity of purpose, with clear contributions to society. 5. All partners engage from the beginning -- objectives, activities, resource mobilization and resource allocation plans are developed jointly. 6. a governance structure that reinforces accountability, a structured work plan and metrics

Bottom line conclusions Economic transformation in SSA will require: Enlightened policies à Evidence à Research Strengthen educational system Strengthen African public institutions, including agricultural policy institutes Process matters Governments hold the key!

Thank You 53

Alliance for African Partnership Convening May 10-12, 2016 Shared vision that emerged: 1. Encourage cross-disciplinary platforms for addressing today s global challenges 2. Innovate new models of engagement 3. Enhance the resources and capacities of African universities, institutions, and scholars, as well as MSU 4. The agenda of the AAP and partners needs to be Africa-focused and Africa-led

Alliance for African Partnership strategic framework

AAP - Illustrative activities in 2016 1. Advisory Board (5 from Africa, 2 from MSU) 2. Formation of a AAP Secretariat in Africa 3. Co-sponsoring events with African organizations: 1. 2017 World Food Prize 2. 2017 African Green Revolution Forum 3. Working closely with ACBF to support RENAPRI 4. 2016/17 Call for Proposals 69 proposals received, 15 accepted 3 involving LUANAR 1 involving ReNAPRI awardees showcased at AAP Launch, 18-20 July 2017, Dar es Salaam

Conclusions 1. Performance of agriculture will continue to exert major influence on job growth and income growth in overall economy 2. Agricultural productivity growth will be the cornerstone of any comprehensive youth livelihoods strategy: Ag productivity growth influences pace of labor force exit out of farming Labor productivity in broader economy

Share of labor force in farming is declining most rapidly where agricultural productivity growth is highest -2.00-1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 Annual % change in share of labor force engaged in farming Nigeria Kenya Uganda Tanzania Ghana Mali Malawi Zambia -2 0 2 4 6 8 Average annual TFP growth in agriculture(%) Trend line Rwanda Source: Yeboah and Jayne, 2016

Non-farm labor productivity growth linked to lagged agricultural productivity growth Av. annual labor productivity growth in non-agriculture (%) -4-2 0 2 4 6 Zambia Zambia1 Bostwana Nigeria1 Mauritius Nigeria Mauritius1 South Africa1 Ghana1 South Africa Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Kenya1 Senegal1 Senegal Bostwana1 Ethiopia1 Tanzania1 Tanzania Malawi Malawi1-2 0 2 4 Average annual agricultural total factor productivity growth (%) Trend line

Conclusions (cont.) 3. Important changes in the distribution of farm sizes Decline in share of farmland under 5 hectare farms Rise of medium-scale farms Rising inequality of farmland distribution Growing land scarcity driven by middle/high income urban people seeking to acquire land not just for farming speculation, housing/properties, farming Rise of new towns converting formerly remote land into valued property

Conclusions (cont.) 3. Ag sector policies must anticipate and respond to rising land prices, decline of inheritance, market as increasingly important mode of acquiring land Resources needed for youth to succeed in farming (access to land, finance) Distinguish between trying to keep youth in agriculture vs. giving youth viable choices