Southern Pine Tree Size Dynamics Where s the Pulpwood? (Potential Diameter-class Imbalance in Southern Pines) Southern Forest Products Association Expo University 5 June 2013 Richard A. Harper, CF, RF Jeffery A. Turner Forest Resource Analyst USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station Forest Inventory and Analysis
Focus Points 1. FIA on-line tools issue regarding net growth by diameter/tree size has been revised 2. Historic indicators U.S. harvest share, procurement strategies, and tree planting 3. Primary focus FIA trend indicators by diameter class harvest type (final vs. partial vs. thinning) number of trees sawtimber size tree utilization by product groups net growth and removals net change (Net Growth Removals) change of total volume by DBH
Million tons Comparison of Surplus Volume to the Misstated Surplus for Softwood by Diameter Class, GA 2011 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0 Surplus Surplus Mistated 6" 8" 10" 12" 14" 16" 18" 20" 2-inch diameter class
FIA plot layout Subplots 1-4 Distance between centers 120 feet General plot and Radius 2 stand descriptive Subplot 24.0 feet data Tree measurements are collected on 4 subplots Regeneration data are collected on 4 microplots 4 1 Microplot 6.8 feet 3
FIA Label Compared to the Average Years in a 5-year Cycle (Lag Time) AL (7-year), FL, GA, SC Area Inventory Volume Number of Trees Net Growth Removals Mortality FIA Label AL2011 Jan. 2008 Dec. 2004 FL2011 Nov. 2008 Apr. 2006 GA2011 Nov. 2008 Dec. 2005 SC2011 June 2009 Jan. 2007
Billion Cubic Feet 10,000 U.S. Timber Harvest Share All Sources 8,000 North South West 2009 6,000 60% 4,000 2,000 24% 16% 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 Sources: RPA 2006, Timber Product Output 2011
Billion cubic feet Trend in Southern Industrial Roundwood Output by Product 10 9 8 7 Pulpwood Veneer All products Saw log Other 2009 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 Year
Million acres Million cubic feet Timberland Area and Volume by Survey Year, Georgia 30.0 25.0 Area Volume 50,000 45,000 40,000 20.0 35,000 30,000 15.0 25,000 10.0 20,000 15,000 5.0 10,000 5,000 0.0 1938 1953 1961 1972 1982 1989 1997 2004 2011 0
Path to increased small diameter harvesting In the Beginning Sawlogs and Pulpwood Chip-N-Saw OSB/Engineered Wood Products Super Pulp (a.k.a. small sawlogs) Energy (pellet plants)
Million tons Trend in Georgia Industrial Roundwood Output 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 All Veneer Other Saw Pulpwood +15% -34% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Percent of Total Softwood and Total Hardwood Inventory Volume and Area Harvested Annually in Georgia, 2011 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.5% 78% 22% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Softwood 1.4% Hardwood
1928 1931 1935 1938 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Acres Million acres 3.0 700,000 2.5 600,000 2.0 500,000 1.5 400,000 1.0 300,000 0.5 200,000 0.0 100,000 0 Acres Planted in Georgia Acres Planted in the South, 1928-2012 Southeast (FL, GA, NC, SC, VA) Soil Bank Program 1928 2010 South Central (AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, TX) Total South Years Conservation Reserve Program
Thousand acres Average Annual Acres Harvested by Harvest Type in Georgia (softwood and hardwood) 700 600 500 400 1989 1997 2004 2011 300 200-32% 100 0 Final harvest Partial harvest Commercial thinning Harvest type
Acres 350,000 1,000,000 300,000 800,000 250,000 200,000 600,000 150,000 150,000 400,000 100,000 100,000 50,000 200,000 50,000 - - - Clear-Cut Clear-Cut Planted Acres, Acres, GA GA 2011 2011 Average Annual Harvest Acres, % of Total Harvest, (Average and Annual (% of Annual Timberland Acres Acres % of Area), Total and Clear-Cut) GA %) 2011 303,231 153,143 856,858 (7%) 181,303 60% 303,231121,928 113,487 35% 40% 74% (2%) 34,442 93,328 11% 11% (1%) 437,063 51% (3%) Clear-cut Clear-cut Clear-cut Natural Hardwood Clear-cut Received Planted and Clear-cut Replanted and Partial -cut NOT Clear-cut Thinned Replanted Clear-cut harvest Stands Natural Planted Planted Planted treatment Silvicultural Harvest Treatment Type 39,656 26% 11,594 4%
Million trees Number of Trees of SYP by DBH Class 2,000 1,500 1,000 on Private Ownership, Georgia -21% % Change From 1997-11% -1% GA1997 GA2004 GA2009 GA2011 500 19% 0 2" 4" 6" 8"
Million tons Volume of Roundwood from Sawtimber 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Size Trees by Grouped Products, GA (softwood) PW & OSB ST & Ven & Pole +34% 1995 1997 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Source: TPO Reports, Table 2 (http://srsfia2.fs.fed.us/php/tpo_2009/tpo_rpa_int1.php) -43%
2004 2009 2011 2004 2009 2011 2004 2009 2011 2004 2009 2011 2004 2009 2011 2004 2009 2011 Million cubic feet Comparison of Net Growth and Removals by Diameter Class, 2004, 2009, 2011 GA (SYP on Private Ownership) 400 350 6-inch diameter class 8-inch diameter class 10-inch diameter class 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Net Growth Removals Net Growth Removals Net Growth Removals
Million cubic feet Inventory Volume of SYP by DBH Class on Private Ownership, Georgia 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 GA1997 GA2004 GA2009 GA2011 GA2012 preliminary -7% -3% 6" 8" 10"
Million cubic feet Inventory Volume of SYP by DBH Class on Private Ownership, Georgia 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 GA1997 GA2004 GA2009 GA2011 GA2012 prelim. 10" 12" 14" 16" 18" 20"
Million tons Average Annual Net Growth and Removals Compared to Inventory Live Tree Volume, Georgia 2011 (SYP, All Private Ownerships) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 - Net Growth Removals Volume 6" + 8" diameter classes
Tons 12,000,000 10,000,000 Average Annual Net Change, 2011 (Net Growth minus Removals) 8,000,000 (SYP on Private Timberland) 6"-8" 10"-20" 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 - (2,000,000) AL FL GA SC
Take Home Points 1. Everyone wants small diameter wood. 2. 6 +8 DBH removals increased 44% and net growth declined 17% over the last 7 years in GA (SYP/Private). 3. Removals exceed net growth in 6 to 8 diameter classes in GA don t forget new industry not reflected in FIA data (FIA lag time) (SYP/Private). 4. Area of harvest type shift thinnings 518% 5. Tree planting decline nowhere to plant, landowners not reinvesting, or both?
Take Home Points (con t) 6. Apparent decline in the number of trees for the 2, 4, and 6 DBH classes in GA (SYP/Private). 7. Total volume for 6 and 8 diameter classes shows decline in GA and for some 75 to 100 mile radius queries However, current volume still exceeds 1997 volume (SYP/Private). 8. More 10 and 12 utilized for PW, OSB, energy 9. FIA EDRR (early detection rapid response)