EU 2020 Targets: Managing integration of wind in the Hungarian grid Tari Gábor CEO Wind Energy the Facts Workshop, 12.06.2009
Contents 2 Hungarian Electric Power System the facts Generation mix Consumption trends Lack of flexibility EU 2020 Targets challenges Feed in tariff for RES & CHP Changes from 2010 Role of wind generation Conditions for further wind integration Conclusion
Electricity resources 3 45 000 40 000 Gross consumption, GWh 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 import big plants (>50 MW) small plants 5 000 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Share of import 4 30 % 25 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 15 10 5 0 5 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11.
Hungarian generation mix 5 Composition of Generation Capacity* 15% 21% 7% 57% *on 31.12.2008 nuclear regulated not regulated small pp
Age of generation units 6 nominal capacity, MW 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 10,1% <5 6 10 11 15 16 20 21 25 26 30 31 35 36 40 >41 >50 MW <50 MW Average of big units: 16,2% 4,4% 1,6% 16,7% age group, year 23.9 years Average of small units: 10.3 years 19,2% 12,3% 10,7% 8,7% Overall average: 22.1 years
Generation mix 7 Growing share of small (<50 MW) generators mainly supported RES and CHP not flexible Volatile import share matter of economy Large share of nuclear not flexible No hydro, no storage Controllable units are old inefficient, so losing market share Reserve capacity is limited and expensive
Development of net consumption 8 TWh 50 1,5 %/a 45 40 35 0,5 %/a 30 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Development of net consumption 9 GWh 4500,0 4000,0 3500,0 3000,0 2500,0 2000,0 1500,0 1000,0 500,0 0,0 I. II. III. IV. V. VI. VII. VIII. IX. X. XI. XII. month 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Winter and summer peaks 10 MW 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Winter Summer
Weekly maximum and minimum loads 11 MW 8000 100 MW/a 7000 y = 1,8803x + 5438,6 6000 5000 4000 3000 y = 0,9524x + 3374,5 2000 1000 0 50 MW/a 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 1121314151 8 18283848 5 15253545 2 1222324252 9 19293949 6 16263646 3 1323334353 dr. Stróbl Alajos week
Consumption trends 12 Economic crisis sudden decrease of demand (5 10%) much slower increase in the future larger share of domestic consumption, i.e. more volatility within the day Equalizing summer and winter peak less freedom in maintenance scheduling Need for more flexibility market products ancillary services (reserves)
Lack of flexible reserve power 13 MW 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Time Nuclear <50 MW Non regulated Regulated Import Min Max Load Schedule
Lack of downward regulation on holiday 14
Insufficient secondary reserve offers 15 Year Regulation UP Regulation DOWN Total 2005 14 % 25 % 39 % 2006 26 % 17 % 43 % 2007 31 % 14 % 45 % 2008 6 % 28 % 34 % 2009/I V 22 % 88 % 92 %
Lack of flexibility 16 Growing number of supported generators feed in tariff is counter incentivizing for AS provision CHP is determined by heat demand, too High import share less controllable units are on line Large share of nuclear reduction of production is limited, and uneconomic anyway Conventional lignite and gas fired units are slow Pump storage, fast hydro, and such are missing
EU 2020 Target end use energy 17 Sweden Latvia Finland Austria Portugal Estonia Romania Denmark Slovenia Lithuania France Bulgaria Spain 34% 23,3% 31% 20,5% 25% 18,0% 24% 17,8% 30% 17,0% 25% 16,0% 23% 15,0% 23% 10,3% 9,4% 8,7% 16% 20% 49% 39,8% 42% 34,9% 38% 28,5% 20% 2020 2005 Greece Slovakia Czech Germany Italy Hungary Ireland Cyprus Holland Belgium UK Luxemburg 6,9% 6,7% 6,1% 5,8% 5,2% 4,3% 3,1% 2,9% 2,4% 2,2% 1,3% 0,9% 18% 14% 13% 18% 17% 13% 16% 13% 14% 13% 15% 11% Poland 7,2% 15% Malta 0,0% 10%
Renewable electricity 18 biogas wind waste hydro 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 from gross electricity consumption biomass Total 5,4% 4,1% 3,4% 4,1% 2,4% 0,9% 0,6% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 net electricity generation, GWh/a
Feed in tariff 19 Growing number of supported generators feed in tariff is counter incentive for AS provision CHP is determined by heat demand, too even large CHPs and biomass co firing large generators are included High import share less controllable units are on line Large share of nuclear reduction of production is limited, and uneconomic anyway Conventional lignite and gas fired units are slow Pump storage, fast hydro, and such are missing
Changes from 2010 20 Termination of licences for feed in tariff small CHPs (gas engines) old RES units Re evaluation, possible prolongation by HEO Planned tender for new wind generation licences Other types of RES Goal is approximately 3 times more generation compared to current share (13 %)
Role of wind generation 21 Reduction of need for fossil fuel decreasing import dependence decreasing greenhouse gas emission employment, tax payment in rural places If well managed and technically up to date, then may help its integration in the grid and in the markets
Conditions for further wind integration 22 Wind generation is hard to forecast large amount of data to be exchanged between generator and TSO shorter time cycles are needed for managing wind production most up to date technology must serve stability and quality for the networks, to which wind is connected Network connection requires additional investment external costs requirements set in grid codes must be fulfilled provision of ancillary services, virtual power plants Right for TSO to limit/terminate generation, if necessary
Conditions for further wind integration 23 Much more flexibility is needed in the power system new, efficient, controllable large units should replace old ones electricity storage would be of great importance (e.g. pump storage) more developed regional reserve markets Liquid day ahead and intra day market (PX) Harmonization between markets energy ancillary services national markets Harmonization between markets and support systems
Conclusion 24 The Hungarian electric power system is far from ideal for wind integration MAVIR is positive on supporting RES already nearly 200 MW of wind generation is on line new modification to the Grid Code intends to ensure further development under clear conditions evaluation of the experiences, and preparation for new procedures is running we are in continuous discussion with HEO, ministry and investors Energy policy must set up clear priorities, and guarantee the necessary conditions (financial, technical and legal)
25 Thank you for the good cooperation in the past, and MAVIR is open for further mutual exchange and discussion of ideas with HWEA! Thank you for your attention!