Status of SPEE Monograph 4 Estimating Developed Reserves in Unconventional Reservoirs John Seidle MHA Petroleum Consultants SPEE Annual Conference Coeur d Alene, ID 11 June 2013 1
SPEE Monograph 4 Purpose Assess current methods to forecast performance of wells in unconventional reservoirs given different reservoir types, different completions, and different well maturities. 2
SPEE Monograph 4 Committee Members Chris Clarkson (Univ of Calgary) invited Jim Erdle (CMG) Creties Jenkins (Rose & Associates) John Lee (SPEE, Univ of Houston) Casey O Shea (IHS/Fekete) John Ritter (SPEE, Occidental Petroleum) John Seidle (SPEE, MHA Petroleum Consultants) Darla-Jean Weatherford (TextRight, technical editor) Scott Wilson (SPEE, Ryder Scott) 3
SPEE Monograph 4 Outline 1. Definition of unconventional reservoirs (UCR) 2. Exploration, Reconnaissance, and Geologial Aspects of UCR 3. Drilling, Completions, and Operations in UCR 4. Overview of Early Reserves Estimation and Production Forecasting 5. Classical Decline Curve analysis (DCA) 6. Modern Performance Analysis 7. Analytical Models 8. Numerical models 9. Probabilistic Methods and Uncertainty in Forecasts and Estimated Ultimate Recovery 10. Summary of Current Technology and Expected Future Trends 4
SPEE Monograph 4 Characteristics of UCR s 1. Wells exhibit a repeatable statistical distribution of Estimated Ultimate Recoveries (EURs). 2. Offset well performance is not a reliable predictor of undeveloped location performance. 3. A continuous hydrocarbon system that is regional in extent. 4. Free hydrocarbons (non-sorbed) are not held in place by hydrodynamics. 5. Requires extensive stimulation to produce at economic rates. (Development and application of technologies not commonly deployed for the exploitation of conventional resources, such as extensive stimulation and micro-seismic.) 6. Produces little in-situ water (except for Coalbed Methane and Tight Oil Reservoirs). 7. Does not exhibit an obvious seal or trap. 8. Low permeability (< 0.1 md). 9. May exist outside of a conventional trap 10. May be characterize by discrete fields that merge into a regional accumulation 11. Do not have a well-defined hydrocarbon-water contact 12. Hydrocarbons may be held in place by water (CBM), but not by hydrodynamics 13. Commonly are abnormally pressured (higher or lower than hydrostatic) 14. Have large in-place resources, but low recovery factors compared to conventionals 15. Have geologic "sweet spots" or fairways of production 16. Economic production may depend on locating natural fractures or higher permeability facies types (raisins in the pudding) 17. Reservoirs may be self-sourcing, or are in close proximity to source rocks 18. May have water located updip from gas (basin-centered accumulations) 19. Contain few truly dry holes nearly all wells are capable of producing some hydrocarbons, i. e. little to no inherent exploration risk. 20. Per well EURs are generally lower than EURs from conventional gas accumulations 21. Potential large-scale development footprint. 5
SPEE Monograph 4 Unconventional Reservoirs 1. Shales 2. Tight sands and carbonates 3. Coals 6
Permeabilities of Unconventional Reservoirs Coalseam Gas Tight sands and carbonates Shales Brick High Strength Concrete 1000 100 10 1.0 0.1 0.01 0.001 1*10-4 1*10-5 1*10-6 Permeability in Millidarcies 7
Example problem - Bakken oil well - data 10000 gas, mcfd - oil, water, bpd 1000 100 10 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 producing time, days gas oil water 8
Example problem - Bakken oil well decline curve analysis 10000 Decline parameters 1000 Qi = 1,000 bpd De = 74.62%/yr oil rate, bpd 100 b = 1.8 Dmin = 5 %/yr 30 yr cum = 918 mbo 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 time, years 9
Example problem - Bakken oil well Fetkovich/Arps match EUR = 341 mbo? 10
Example problem - Bakken oil well Duong plot 10 1 qo/np, day-1 0.1 0.01 0.001 1 10 100 1000 10000 time, days 11
Example problem - Bakken oil well Duong results 10000 oil rate, bpd - cum oil, mstb 1000 100 30 year forecast oil rate = 153 bpd cum = 1,829 mbo 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 time, days oil rate cum oil calc'd qo calc'd Np 12
Example problem - Bakken oil well results - 1 1. Decline curve analysis 30 yr cum = 918 mbo 2. Fetkovich/Arps EUR = 341 mbo? 3. Duong 30 yr cum = 1,829 mbo 13
Example problem - Bakken oil well The Most Important Plot normalized rate vs material balance time 10 1 qo/(pi-pwf), bpd/psia 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 material balance time, days 14
Example problem - Bakken oil well The Most Important Plot normalized rate vs material balance time 10 qo/(pi-pwf), bpd/psia 1 0.1 ¼ slope line bilinear 1/2 slope line - linear 0.01 unit slope line - BDF 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 material balance time, days 15
Example problem - Bakken oil well Blasingame match OOIP = 714 mbo EUR = 143 mbo assuming 20% recovery factor 16
Example problem - Bakken oil well flowing material balance OOIP = 718 mbo EUR = 144 mbo assuming 20% recovery factor 17
Example problem - Bakken oil well simulation 10000 1000 OOIP = 689 mbo (SRV) oil rate, bpd 30 yr cum = 763 mbo 111% recovery factor? 100 Flow from outside SRV? 10 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 time, days 18
Example problem - Bakken oil well results - 2 1. Decline curve analysis 30 yr cum = 918 mbo 2. Fetkovich/Arps EUR = 341 mbo? 3. Duong 30 yr cum = 1,829 mbo 4. Blasingame OOIP = 713.7 mbo / EUR = 143 mbo? 5. Flowing Matl Balance - OOIP = 717.9 mbo / EUR = 143 mbo? 6. Simulation OOIP = 689 mbo / EUR = 763 mbo 19
Example problem - Bakken oil well results - 3 1. Decline curve analysis 30 yr cum = 918 mbo 2. Fetkovich/Arps EUR = 341 mbo? 3. Duong 30 yr cum = 1,829 mbo 4. Blasingame OOIP = 713.7 mbo / EUR = 143 mbo? 5. Flowing Matl Balance - OOIP = 717.9 mbo / EUR = 143 mbo? 6. Simulation OOIP = 689 mbo / EUR = 763 mbo 7. Actual =??? mbo 20
SPEE Monograph 4 -- Proposed Timeline 31 August - Revised chapter drafts 1 October Draft manuscript back to committee 15 October Committee comments to Chair & Technical Editor 1 November Draft manuscript to SPEE Executive Committee 1 January 2014 Draft manuscript to sister societies 1 March Comments back from SPEE Ex Comm & sister societies 1 April Final manuscript to SPEE Ex Comm 21
SPEE Monograph 4 -- Summary Methods to estimate developed reserves in conventional reservoirs often not reliable in UCR s. Current industry practice of EUR determination from hyperbolic decline early + terminal exponential late may not be definitive. Construct the Most Important Plot to identify flow regimes and appropriate models. 22
SPEE Monograph 4 Summary (con t) Accurate determination of EUR s in UCR s requires rich data set 1. Production data 2. Initial reservoir pressure & bottomhole flowing pressures 3. Geology & geophysics 4. Completion & stimulations Confidence in analysis increased by using more than one method How to handle routine reserves job with several hundred wells in a few weeks? 23
SPEE Monograph 4 Committee Interested in your comments & questions jseidle@mhausa.com 24