FAPRI 2010 U.S. AND WORLD AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK January 2010 FAPRI Staff Report 10-FSR 1 ISSN 1534-4533 Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Iowa State University University of Missouri-Columbia Ames, Iowa U.S.A.
Iowa State University Miguel Carriquiry Fengxia Dong Xiaodong Du Amani Elobeid Jacinto Fabiosa Chad Hart Dermot J. Hayes Karen Kovarik Kranti Mulik Eric Wailes (University of Arkansas) Ed Chavez (University of Arkansas) Marcelo Moreira (Institute for International Trade Negotiations, Brazil) University of Missouri-Columbia Julian Binfield D. Scott Brown Scott Gerlt Daniel Madison Seth Meyer William H. Meyers Wyatt Thompson Patrick Westhoff Lori Wilcox Abner W. Womack Published by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Iowa State University and the University of Missouri-Columbia, 2010. Material in this publication is based upon work supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No. 2009-34149-19802. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Permission is granted to reproduce this information with appropriate attribution to the authors and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. Iowa State University does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, age, religion, national origin, sexual orientation, gender identity, sex, marital status, disability, or status as a U.S. Veteran. Inquiries can be directed to the Director of Equal Opportunity and Diversity, 3680 Beardshear Hall, 515-294-7612.
Contents Figures List... iv Tables List... vi Abbreviations and Acronyms...xv Marketing Year Definitions...xvi Executive Summary... 1 Overview of the 2010 U.S. and World Outlook... 3 Charts and Price Projections...15 Baseline Assumptions...51 World Macroeconomic Assumptions...52 U.S. Program Provisions...58 World Agricultural Policy Assumptions...60 U.S. Crops...71 U.S. Wheat...72 U.S. Rice...74 U.S. Corn...78 U.S. Ethanol and Biofuel Policy Provisions...80 U.S. Corn Products...82 U.S. Corn Processing...84 U.S. Sorghum...86 U.S. Barley...88 U.S. Oats...90 U.S. Hay...92 U.S. Soybeans and Soybean Products...94 U.S. Biodiesel...98 U.S. Sunflower Seed and Sunflower Seed Products...100 U.S. Canola Seed and Canola Seed Products...104 U.S. Peanuts and Peanut Products...107 U.S. Upland Cotton and Cottonseed Products...110 U.S. Sugar...114 U.S. Livestock and Dairy...117 U.S. Beef...118 U.S. Pork...120 U.S. Poultry...122 U.S. Dairy...126 U.S. State-Level Dairy Supply...128 U.S. Dairy Products...132 U.S. Aggregate Measures...135 U.S. Land Use...136 U.S. Food Prices and Expenditures...138 U.S. Government Costs...140
iv U.S. Cash Receipts from Farm Marketings...142 U.S. Farm Production Expenses...144 U.S. Prices Paid by Farmers...146 U.S. Net Farm Income...148 U.S. Crop Insurance...150 World Wheat...153 World Rice...167 World Coarse Grains...185 World Oilseeds and Products...223 World Soybeans and Soybean Products...224 World Rapeseed and Rapeseed Products...242 World Sunflower Seed and Sunflower Seed Products...256 World Palm Oil and Palm Kernel Products...268 World Peanuts and Peanut Products...276 World Cotton...289 World Sugar...301 World Biofuels...321 World Ethanol...322 World Biodiesel...323 World Meat...329 World Beef and Veal...330 World Pork...332 World Poultry...334 World Dairy Products...365 World Butter and Cheese...366 World Milk Powder...369 Figures Average Annual GDP Growth, 2009-2019...16 Average Annual Exchange Rate Growth, 2009-2019...16 U.S. Biofuel Use Mandates...17 U.S. Conservation Reserve Program Area...17 U.S. Crop Planted Area...18 U.S. Crop Exports...18
v U.S. Crop Prices...19 U.S. Feed and Residual Disappearance...19 U.S. Biofuel Production...20 U.S. Farm-Level Prices Paid Indices...20 U.S. Cattle and Barrow and Gilt Prices...21 U.S. Poultry Wholesale Prices...21 U.S. Livestock Production...22 U.S. Meat Net Exports...22 U.S. Milk Production...23 U.S. Milk Prices...23 U.S. Land Use...24 Mandatory U.S. Government Outlays, Fiscal Year...24 U.S. Farm Income...25 U.S. Consumer Price Index for Food...25 World Wheat Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price...26 World Wheat Net Trade and U.S. Market Share...26 World Rice Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price...27 World Rice Net Exports...27 World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...28 World Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price...28 World Corn Net Trade and U.S. Market Share...29 World Barley and Sorghum Net Trade and Prices...29 World Soybean Area Harvested and Price...30 World Soybean Net Trade...30 World Soybean Crush...31 World Soybean Meal Net Trade...31 World Soybean Oil Net Trade...32 Soybean Oil Per Capita Consumption in Selected Countries...32 World Rapeseed Area Harvested and Price...33 World Rapeseed Net Trade...33 World Rapeseed Meal Net Trade...34 World Rapeseed Oil Net Trade...34 World Sunflower Area Harvested and Price...35 World Sunflower Net Trade...35 World Sunflower Meal Net Trade...36 World Sunflower Oil Net Trade...36 World Palm Oil Net Trade and Price...37
vi World Peanut Area Harvested and Price...37 World Cotton Consumption...38 World Cotton Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price...38 Major Sugar Net Exporters and World Raw Sugar Price...39 Major Sugar Net Importers...39 World Ethanol Price and Net Trade...40 World Biodiesel Price and Net Trade...40 World Meat Production and Trade...41 Per Capita Meat Consumption...41 Major Beef Importing Countries...42 Beef Export Market Share...42 Major Pork Importing Countries...43 Pork Export Market Share...43 Major Broiler Importing Countries...44 Broiler Export Market Share...44 Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries...45 Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries...45 NFD Trade for Selected Countries...46 WMP Trade for Selected Countries...46 Tables Commodity Price Projections...47 Real GDP Growth Projections...53 GDP Deflator Growth Projections...54 Exchange Rate Growth Projections...55 Population Growth Projections...56 U.S. Program Provisions...59 Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Crops...61 Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Biofuels...65 Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Livestock and Dairy Products...66 Other Agricultural Policy Assumptions...70 U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization...73 U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization...75 U.S. Long-Grain Rice Supply and Utilization...76 U.S. Medium- and Short-Grain Rice Supply and Utilization...77 U.S. Corn Supply and Utilization...79 U.S. Ethanol Supply and Utilization...81 U.S. Biofuel Policy Provisions...81 U.S. Corn Products Supply and Utilization...83
vii U.S. Corn Processing...85 U.S. Sorghum Supply and Utilization...87 U.S. Barley Supply and Utilization...89 U.S. Oat Supply and Utilization...91 U.S. Hay Supply and Utilization...93 U.S. Soybean Supply and Utilization...95 U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Utilization...96 U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Utilization...97 U.S. Biodiesel Sector...99 U.S. Vegetable Oil Consumption...99 U.S. Sunflower Seed Supply and Utilization...101 U.S. Sunflower Meal Supply and Utilization...102 U.S. Sunflower Oil Supply and Utilization...103 U.S. Canola Seed Supply and Utilization...105 U.S. Canola Meal Supply and Utilization...106 U.S. Canola Oil Supply and Utilization...106 U.S. Peanut Supply and Utilization...108 U.S. Peanut Meal Supply and Utilization...109 U.S. Peanut Oil Supply and Utilization...109 U.S. Upland Cotton Supply and Utilization... 111 U.S. Cottonseed Supply and Utilization...112 U.S. Cottonseed Meal Supply and Utilization...113 U.S. Cottonseed Oil Supply and Utilization...113 U.S. Sugar Crop Production...115 U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization...115 U.S. Beef Supply and Utilization...119 U.S. Pork Supply and Utilization...121 U.S. Broiler Supply and Utilization...123 U.S. Turkey Supply and Utilization...124 U.S. Egg Supply and Utilization...125 U.S. Milk Component Supply and Utilization...127 U.S. Dairy Cows by State...129 U.S. Milk Production by State...130 U.S. All-Milk Prices by State...131 U.S. Dairy Product Supply and Utilization...133 U.S. Land Use for Major Crops...137 U.S. Consumer Price Indexes for Food...139 U.S. Per Capita Consumer Expenditures for Food...139 U.S. Net Government Outlays...141 U.S. Cash Receipts from Farming...143 U.S. Farm Production Expenses...145 U.S. Indices of Prices Paid by Farmers...147 U.S. Indices of Prices Paid by Farmers (percent change)...147 U.S. Farm Income Statistics...149 U.S. Crop Insurance...151
viii Wheat Trade...155 World Wheat Supply and Utilization...156 U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization...156 Algerian Wheat Supply and Utilization...157 Argentine Wheat Supply and Utilization...157 Australian Wheat Supply and Utilization...157 Brazilian Wheat Supply and Utilization...158 Canadian Wheat Supply and Utilization...158 Chinese Wheat Supply and Utilization...159 Egyptian Wheat Supply and Utilization...159 European Union Wheat Supply and Utilization...159 Indian Wheat Supply and Utilization...160 Iranian Wheat Supply and Utilization...160 Japanese Wheat Supply and Utilization...160 Mexican Wheat Supply and Utilization...161 Moroccan Wheat Supply and Utilization...161 Other African/Middle Eastern Wheat Supply and Utilization...161 Other Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization...162 Other CIS Wheat Supply and Utilization...162 Other Eastern European Wheat Supply and Utilization...162 Other Latin American Wheat Supply and Utilization...163 Pakistani Wheat Supply and Utilization...163 Russian Wheat Supply and Utilization...163 South Korean Wheat Supply and Utilization...164 Taiwanese Wheat Supply and Utilization...164 Tunisian Wheat Supply and Utilization...164 Ukrainian Wheat Supply and Utilization...165 Rest-of-World Wheat Supply and Utilization...165 Per Capita Wheat Consumption of Selected Countries...166 Rice Trade...169 World Rice Supply and Utilization...170 U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization...170 Argentine Rice Supply and Utilization...171 Australian Rice Supply and Utilization...171 Bangladeshi Rice Supply and Utilization...171 Brazilian Rice Supply and Utilization...172 Cambodian Rice Supply and Utilization...172 Cameroonian Rice Supply and Utilization...172 Canadian Rice Supply and Utilization...173 Chinese Rice Supply and Utilization...173 Cote d Ivoire Rice Supply and Utilization...173 Egyptian Rice Supply and Utilization...174 European Union Rice Supply and Utilization...174 Ghanaian Rice Supply and Utilization...174 Guinean Rice Supply and Utilization...175
ix Chinese - Hong Kong Rice Supply and Utilization...175 Indian Rice Supply and Utilization...175 Indonesian Rice Supply and Utilization...176 Iranian Rice Supply and Utilization...176 Iraqi Rice Supply and Utilization...176 Japanese Rice Supply and Utilization...177 Kenyan Rice Supply and Utilization...177 Malaysian Rice Supply and Utilization...177 Malian Rice and Supply and Utilization...178 Mexican Rice Supply and Utilization...178 Mozambican Rice Supply and Utilization...178 Myanmarian Rice Supply and Utilization...179 Nigerian Rice Supply and Utilization...179 Pakistani Rice Supply and Utilization...179 Philippine Rice Supply and Utilization...180 Saudi Arabian Rice Supply and Utilization...180 Senegalese Rice and Supply and Utilization...180 Sierra Leonean Rice and Supply and Utilization...181 South African Rice Supply and Utilization...181 South Korean Rice Supply and Utilization...181 Taiwanese Rice Supply and Utilization...182 Tanzanian Rice Supply and Utilization...182 Thai Rice Supply and Utilization...182 Turkish Rice Supply and Utilization...183 Uruguayan Rice Supply and Utilization...183 Vietnamese Rice Supply and Utilization...183 Rest-of-World Rice Supply and Utilization...184 Per Capita Rice Consumption of Selected Countries...184 Corn Trade...187 Barley Trade...188 Sorghum Trade...189 World Corn Supply and Utilization...190 World Barley Supply and Utilization...190 World Sorghum Supply and Utilization...191 U.S. Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...192 Algerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...194 Argentine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...195 Australian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...196 Brazilian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...197 Canadian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...198 Chinese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...199 Egyptian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...199 European Union Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...200 Indian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...201 Indonesian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...201 Israeli Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...202
x Japanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...203 Malaysian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...203 Mexican Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...204 Nigerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...205 Other African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...205 Other Asian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...206 Other Eastern European Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...207 Other CIS Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...208 Other Latin American Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...209 Other Middle Eastern Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...210 Pakistani Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...211 Philippine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...212 Russian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...212 Saudi Arabian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...213 South African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...214 South Korean Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...215 Taiwanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...215 Thai Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...216 Ukrainian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...216 Vietnamese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...217 Rest-of-World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...218 Per Capita Grain Consumption of Selected Countries...219 Soybean Trade...225 Soybean Meal Trade...226 Soybean Oil Trade...226 World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...227 U.S. Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...228 Argentine Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...229 Brazilian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...230 Canadian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...231 Chinese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...232 European Union Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...233 Indian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...234 Japanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...235 Mexican Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...236 Other CIS Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...237 Paraguyan Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...238 South Korean Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...239 Taiwanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...240 Rest-of-World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...241 Rapeseed Trade...243 Rapeseed Meal Trade...243 Rapeseed Oil Trade...244 World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization...245 U.S. Canola Sector Supply and Utilization...246
xi Australian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization...247 Canadian Canola Sector Supply and Utilization...248 Chinese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization...249 European Union Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization...250 Indian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization...251 Japanese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization...252 Other CIS Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization...253 Ukrainian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization...254 Rest-of-World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization...255 Sunflower Seed Trade...257 Sunflower Meal Trade...257 Sunflower Oil Trade...258 World Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization...259 U.S. Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization...260 Argentine Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization...261 Chinese Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization...262 European Union-25 Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization...263 Other CIS Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization...264 Ukrainian Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization...265 Rest-of-World Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization...266 Palm Sector Trade...269 World Palm Sector Supply and Utilization...270 Chinese Palm Sector Supply and Utilization...271 European Union Palm Sector Supply and Utilization...271 Indian Palm Sector Supply and Utilization...272 Indonesian Palm Sector Supply and Utilization...272 Malaysian Palm Sector Supply and Utilization...273 Rest-of-World Palm Sector Supply and Utilization...274 Peanut Sector Trade...277 World Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization...278 U.S. Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization...279 Argentine Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization...280 Chinese Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization...281 European Union Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization...282 Indian Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization...283 Canadian Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization...284 Mexican Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization...284 Rest-of-World Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization...285 Per Capita Vegetable Oil Consumption of Selected Countries...286 Cotton Trade...291 World Cotton Supply and Utilization...292 U.S. Cotton Supply and Utilization...292 African Cotton Supply and Utilization...292
xii Argentine Cotton Supply and Utilization...293 Australian Cotton Supply and Utilization...293 Brazilian Cotton Supply and Utilization...293 Canadian Cotton Supply and Utilization...294 Chinese Cotton Supply and Utilization...294 European Union Cotton Supply and Utilization...294 Indian Cotton Supply and Utilization...295 Indonesian Cotton Supply and Utilization...295 Japanese Cotton Supply and Utilization...295 Kazakhstan Cotton Supply and Utilization...296 Mexican Cotton Supply and Utilization...296 Other Asian Cotton Supply and Utilization...296 Other European Cotton Supply and Utilization...297 Other CIS Cotton Supply and Utilization...297 Other Latin American Cotton Supply and Utilization...297 Other Middle Eastern Cotton Supply and Utilization...298 Pakistani Cotton Supply and Utilization...298 Russian Cotton Supply and Utilization...298 South Korean Cotton Supply and Utilization...299 Taiwanese Cotton Supply and Utilization...299 Turkish Cotton Supply and Utilization...300 Uzbek Cotton Supply and Utilization...300 Sugar Trade...303 World Sugar Supply and Utilization...304 U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization...305 Algerian Sugar Supply and Utilization...306 Argentine Sugar Supply and Utilization...306 Australian Sugar Supply and Utilization...307 Brazilian Sugar Supply and Utilization...307 Canadian Sugar Supply and Utilization...308 Chinese Sugar Supply and Utilization...308 Colombian Sugar Supply and Utilization...309 Cuban Sugar Supply and Utilization...309 Egyptian Sugar Supply and Utilization...310 European Union Sugar Supply and Utilization...310 Guatemalan Sugar Supply and Utilization...311 Indian Sugar Supply and Utilization...311 Indonesian Sugar Supply and Utilization...312 Iranian Sugar Supply and Utilization...312 Japanese Sugar Supply and Utilization...313 Malaysian Sugar Supply and Utilization...313 Mexican Sugar Supply and Utilization...314 Moroccan Sugar Supply and Utilization...314 Pakistani Sugar Supply and Utilization...315 Peruvian Sugar Supply and Utilization...315
xiii Philippine Sugar Supply and Utilization...316 Russian and Ukrainian Sugar Supply and Utilization...316 South African Sugar Supply and Utilization...317 South Korean Sugar Supply and Utilization...317 Thai Sugar Supply and Utilization...318 Turkish Sugar Supply and Utilization...318 Ukrainian Sugar Supply and Utilization...319 Venezuelan Sugar Supply and Utilization...319 Per Capita Sugar Consumption of Selected Countries...320 Ethanol Trade...324 Biodiesel Trade...324 U.S. Biofuels Production and Consumption...325 Argentine Biofuels Production and Consumption...325 Brazilian Biofuels Production and Consumption...325 Canadian Biofuels Production and Consumption...326 Chinese Biofuels Production and Consumption...326 European Union Biofuels Production and Consumption...326 Indian Biofuels Production and Consumption...326 Indonesian Biofuels Production and Consumption...327 Japanese Biofuels Production and Consumption...327 South Korean Biofuels Production and Consumption...327 Malaysian Biofuels Production and Consumption...327 Rest-of-World Biofuels Production and Consumption...327 Beef and Veal Trade...331 Pork Trade...333 Broiler Meat Trade...335 U.S. Meat Supply and Utilization...336 Argentine Meat Supply and Utilization...337 Australian Meat Supply and Utilization...338 Brazilian Meat Supply and Utilization...339 Canadian Meat Supply and Utilization...340 Chinese - Mainland Meat Supply and Utilization...341 Chinese - Hong Kong Meat Supply and Utilization...342 Egyptian Meat Supply and Utilization...343 European Union Meat Supply and Utilization...344 Indian Meat Supply and Utilization...345 Indonesian Meat Supply and Utilization...346 Japanese Meat Supply and Utilization...347 Mexican Meat Supply and Utilization...348 New Zealand Meat Supply and Utilization...349 Other CIS Meat Supply and Utilization...350 Other Eastern European Meat Supply and Utilization...351 Paraguayan Meat Supply and Utilization...352 Philippine Meat Supply and Utilization...353
xiv Russian Meat Supply and Utilization...354 Saudi Arabian Meat Supply and Utilization...355 South African Meat Supply and Utilization...355 South Korean Meat Supply and Utilization...356 Taiwanese Meat Supply and Utilization...357 Thai Meat Supply and Utilization...358 Ukrainian Meat Supply and Utilization...359 Vietnamese Meat Supply and Utilization...360 Rest-of-World Meat Supply and Utilization...361 Per Capita Meat Consumption of Selected Countries...362 Butter Trade...367 Cheese Trade...368 Nonfat Dry Milk Trade...370 Whole Milk Powder Trade...371 U.S. Dairy Supply and Utilization...372 Algerian Dairy Supply and Utilization...373 Argentine Dairy Supply and Utilization...374 Australian Dairy Supply and Utilization...375 Brazilian Dairy Supply and Utilization...376 Canadian Dairy Supply and Utilization...377 Chinese Dairy Supply and Utilization...378 Colombian Dairy Supply and Utilization...379 Egyptian Dairy Supply and Utilization...380 European Union Dairy Supply and Utilization...381 Indian Dairy Supply and Utilization...382 Indonesian Dairy Supply and Utilization...383 Japanese Dairy Supply and Utilization...384 Malaysian Dairy Supply and Utilization...385 Mexican Dairy Supply and Utilization...386 New Zealand Dairy Supply and Utilization...387 Peruvian Dairy Supply and Utilization...388 Philippine Dairy Supply and Utilization...389 Russian Dairy Supply and Utilization...390 Saudi Arabian Dairy Supply and Utilization...391 South Korean Dairy Supply and Utilization...392 Swiss Dairy Supply and Utilization...393 Thai Dairy Supply and Utilization...394 Ukrainian Dairy Supply and Utilization...395 Uruguayan Dairy Supply and Utilization...396 Venezuelan Diary Supply and Utilization...397 Vietnamese Dairy Supply and Utilization...398 Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Selected Countries...399