Climate and Climate Change: What s going on?! Chris Petrone Delaware Sea Grant / UD CEOE petrone@udel.edu @seapetrone
Common climate change misconceptions Misconceptions Target conceptions 1. Global warming is caused by the ozone hole, because the hole lets in more radiation. 2. Climate is simply long-term weather and therefore can t be predicted. 1. Global warming is caused by increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These gases include carbon dioxide and water vapor, which trap infrared radiation from the warmed surface of the Earth. 2. Climate is the statistical analysis of weather.
Common climate change misconceptions Misconceptions Target conceptions 3. The atmosphere is large and small amounts of carbon dioxide or a few degrees of temperature change can t make much difference. 4. Weather anomalies can be used as evidence for or against climate change. 3. Small changes in the atmosphere s composition or temperature can have a large effect. 4. There is a link between climate change and weather, but any particular weather event cannot prove that climate change is (or is not) happening.
Common climate change misconceptions Misconceptions Target conceptions 5. The Earth gets closer to the sun in summer and is farther away in winter. 5. The tilt of Earth s axis is the reason for the seasons. 6. Atmospheric water vapor is the heat trapping gas that is primarily responsible for global warming. Others? 6. Water vapor is increasing in the atmosphere in response to rising CO2 concentrations, amplifying the warming effect of manmade CO2 emissions.
Climate change misconception resources NOAA Ten Common Misconceptions about Climate and Climate Change - long url, Google it Veritasium s 13 climate change misconceptions - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owxorsixyiu www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php (176 statements) Center for Climate & Energy Solutions (C2ES) Realities vs. Misconceptions about Climate Change Science - www.c2es.org
Weather vs. Climate Climate is what we expect. Weather is what we get. Mark Twain Robert Heinlein (1973) Climate lasts all the time and weather only a few days. Mark Twain quoting a schoolchild (1887) Is not climate just made up of thousands of little weathers? Stephen Colbert >> 365 days x 30 years = 10,950 days Climate is what s in our wardrobe. Weather is what we wear today.
Can be modeled (forecasted) 7-10 days out; more accurate at 2-3 days Weather vs. Climate A statistical analysis of 30 years worth of data
Weather vs. Climate Embedded video removed; url below Trend and Variation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0vj-0imolw
Local vs. Global Scale
Local vs. Global Scale The Alps of MIT Credit: Tom Geary, MIT
Local vs. Global Scale
Local vs. Global Scale
90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases is absorbed in oceans. Persistent rise in ocean temperature evidence for global warming. Argo Floats Measure temperature, salinity, and currents in the upper 2000 m. Buoys rise and fall every 10 days to send data back to public website.
How do we know the world is warming? Arctic Sea Ice Air Temperature over Ocean Humidity Snow Temperature of the Lower Atmosphere Air Temperature over Land Sea Surface Temperature Ocean Heat Content Global Sea Level Glaciers Credit: Hunter Allen, NOAA
How do we know? Observations Measurements / Data Models
So how do we know? Credit: Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science
What s actually happening?
Atmospheric CO 2 : 575 million years ago to present Plot of atmospheric CO2 levels from 550 million years ago to present and highlighting the timing of major and minor mass extinctions of life. (Source: modified from Ward, P. 2007 Under A Green Sky: Global Warming, the Mass Extinctions of the Past, and What They Can Tell Us About Their Future, Harper Collins, New York) downloaded at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/11/how-earth-avoided-globalwarming-before-suvs/
Atmospheric CO 2 : 400,000 years ago to present Skepticalscience.com
CO 2 since 1960 the Keeling Curve https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
CO 2 since 1960
Global climate models: No warming without CO 2 Blue: models run with CO 2 same as 1900 & measured volcanic events + solar energy Red: models run with measured CO 2 (& other greenhouse gases) and SO 4 & measured volcanic events + solar energy = >0.5 warmer http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/climate/images/pcm_ensemble.png
Sea level variability world-wide
Sea level variability in the US + Thermal expansion + Melting glaciers and ice caps + Subsidence (due to glacial retreat) DE SLR = 13 inches in the last 100 years
Observing Changes EARLIER SPRING Lilacs, honeysuckle, and other harbingers of spring are flowering 1-2 weeks earlier in the year.
Observing Changes SHIFTING CROPS AND PLANTS Center of blueberry production has shifted northward, from Maine to Quebec.
Observing Changes EXTREME HEAT Record high temperatures and heat waves 2x more frequent.
Observing Changes DROUGHT Crop losses of $5B per year since 1980s.
Observing Changes PESTS MOVING NORTH Less cold days to keep red ants & kudzu at bay
Observing Changes Responses to warming temperatures seen in more than 25,000 physical and biological systems around the world.
1990 Hardiness Zones
So what do we do about it? Credit: Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science
So what do we do about it? Adapt ways to live in our warming world Limit vulnerability Typically only benefits us Mitigate stop future warming Emissions reductions Geoengineering
So what do we do about it?
Six Americas Audience Segments http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/
Viewing Americans Beliefs on Climate Change http://environment.yale.edu/poe/v2014/
Resources www.madeclear.org www.skepticalscience.com (and app!) climate.gov http://cleanet.org/ (++ education resources) ncdc.noaa.gov It s happening We re the cause We re already feeling the effects Everyone can help fix it