YUCCA MOUNTAIN TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS IN NEVADA The picture above depicts the 800-meter radiological region of influence along the Union Pacific railroad through Las Vegas, NV 6/22/2012 Population trends along transportation routes to Yucca Mountain in Nevada (Revised Final Version) This document reports calculations of the number of Nevadans living within the 800- meter radiological region of influence (ROI) along potential transportation routes to Yucca Mountain. The report uses 1990, 2000, and 2010 US census data. Prepared by: Fred C. Dilger, PhD. Black Mountain Research Henderson, NV
INTRODUCTION This report uses US census data from 1990, 2000 and 2010 to examine the changes in the population of Nevadans that would have been affected by the shipment of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) to the now-terminated Yucca Mountain repository site. The report describes the procedures used to perform the analysis and concludes by describing the very substantial increases in the number of Nevadans that would have been affected. METHODOLOGY The analysis was performed using geographic information systems (GIS) software to overlay the proposed routes contained in the 2008 Department of Energy (DOE) Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (FSEIS) onto census tract data from 1990, 2000, and 2010. The areas assessed were: 1) the routes through the State of Nevada; and 2) routes through Clark County. The representative routes in the FSEIS traversed Nevada in a way that most heavily affected southern Nevada. The routes travel through Clark, Nye, Esmeralda, and Lincoln counties. The analysis method used in the report overlays and clips a portion of the affected population. The results of the clipped census tracts reveal the characteristics of the affected population. Page 1
Process FIGURE 1. FSEIS NATIONAL RAIL AND TRUCK ROUTES TO YUCCA MOUNTAIN The steps to implement the study were: 1. Define national rail and truck representative routes across the US as identified in the FSEIS. 2. Create buffers around the centerline of the route that are 800 meters on either side. This represents the radiological region of influence as defined by the FSEIS (FSEIS, Page 6-12). The ROI is created as a new buffer layer. 3. Overlay the ROI buffer layer onto the census tracts for each census from 1990, 2000, and 2010. The TIGER line file from 1990 had to be converted into an acceptable format prior to use. 4. Calculate statistics from the results of the overlay. The GIS operation overlay was performed using two GIS software packages: Maptitude 6 and ArcGIS 9.3.1. The operation was repeated for each area analyzed and the results were compared. No substantial differences were identified by repeating the results. Page 2
ASSUMPTIONS The 800-meter ROI is the standard used to define the affected environment for normal shipments of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radiological waste. The impacted area consists of the population within the radiological ROI of 800 meters on either side of the centerline of the potential transportation routes. Census data was used for this analysis. There are different levels at which the census data is aggregated. The relevant possibilities for use in this report: (1) census block, covers the smallest areas and is the most detailed; (2) census block group, covers a larger area and is comprised of several census blocks; and (3) census tract, collects block groups. The census tract level of data was used in this report because smaller sized areas require longer to compute. The larger areas are faster. The county level census data used in the report is enclosed in Appendix 1. The potential transportation routes used were those identified by the DOE in the FSEIS (FSEIS 6-18). This includes the Caliente rail corridor. This memo reports the residential population. The buffer overlay was applied to the census tracts for EACH of the census years. That is, the same ROI boundaries were overlaid onto the 1990 TIGER census tracts, the 2000 census tracts and the 2010 census tracts. This was done to provide a consistent comparison over the years. It should be noted that the census tract boundaries changed slightly for each of the census years because of rapid changes in population. FINDINGS The analysis reveals substantial increases in the numbers of people who would have been affected by transportation of SNF and HLW to Yucca Mountain. The analysis divides the results between Nevada and Clark County. The Clark County results are included within the Nevada numbers. The population impacts can also be divided for each individual county. There are an increasing number of Nevadans living within the ROI. The characteristics of the people living within the ROI are shown in the tables below. Page 3
FIGURE 2. RAIL AND TRUCK ROUTES IN NEVADA TO YUCCA MOUNTAIN 1990 2000 2010 Number of Nevada Residents living within the radiological ROI Percentage of Nevada residents living within the radiological ROI 40,872 91,394 222,517 3.4% 4.5% 8.1% TABLE 1. NUMBER OF NEVADA RESIDENTS LIVING WITHIN THE RADIOLOGICAL ROI The results of the assessment indicate that the number of Nevadans living within the radiological ROI increased substantially between 1990 and 2010. The proportion of the state's residents living within the ROI is larger than ever before as well. Page 4
The increase in the number and proportion of people within the radiological ROI is almost entirely due to the increased residential population along the northern and western beltway in Clark County. 1990 2000 2010 Within ROI Nevada Within ROI Nevada Within ROI Nevada Households 12,313 466,297 34,554 751,165 81,394 1,006,250 Median Age 34.6 34.6 36.7 35 35.2 36.3 Housing Units 26,019 518,858 39,055 827,457 102,257 1,173,814 TABLE 2. CHARACTERISTICS OF NEVADA POPULATION FIGURE 3. FSEIS RAIL AND TRUCK ROUTES THROUGH CLARK COUNTY, NEVADA The number and proportion of Clark County residents living within the radiological ROI is shown in Table 3. Page 5
1990 2000 2010 Number of Clark County Residents living within the radiological ROI Percentage of Clark County residents living within the radiological ROI 40,039 91,394 220,225 5.4% 6.6% 11.28% TABLE 3. CLARK COUNTY RESIDENT LIVING WITHIN THE ROI The Clark County census tracts within the radiological ROI are shown in Figure 4. Selected demographic characteristics of the Clark County population are shown in Table 4. FIGURE 4. CLARK COUNTY CENSUS TRACTS WITHIN THE ROI WITH THE GREATEST POPULATION CHANGES Page 6
1990 2000 2010 Within ROI Clark County Within ROI Clark County Within ROI Clark County Households 12,055 287,025 34,446 512,253 81,272 715,365 Median Age 34.4 34.6 34.6 34.8 35.4 35.5 Housing Units 25,743 357,045 38,905 559,799 101,884 840,343 TABLE 4. CLARK COUNTY POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS Page 7
SOURCES Caliper. Web. 11 June 2012. <http://www.caliper.com/>. ESRI. Web. 11 June 2012. <http://www.esri.com/> "US Census Bureau." Guide to State and Local Census Geography. Web. 30 Mar. 2012. <http://www.census.gov/geo/www/guidestloc/st32_nv.html>. http://www.census.gov/geo/www/guidestloc/st32_nv.html "Energy.gov." Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement for a Geologic Repository for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste at Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada Rail Transportation Corridor DOE/EIS-0250F-S2 and Final Envir. Web. 30 Mar. 2012. http://energy.gov/downloads/final-supplemental-environmental-impact-statement-geologic-repositorydisposal-spent-2 http://censtats.census.gov/cgi-bin/pl94/pl94data.pl Page 8
Appendix 1 Census Data Sources Page 9