World Sorghum Grain Producers Million Metric Tons 18 16 14 12 12 10 8 6 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 0 14 MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17 Grain Sorghum Exporters Million Metric Tons 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 8.9 8.6 6.4 * Note Weaker Currencies! * 1.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.4 MY 2012/13 MY 2013/14 MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17
World Grain Sorghum Use 20 21 18.4 Million Metric Tons 15 10 5 13 8.7 8 7.2 6 6.4 5.8 5.5 5.4 3.7 3.0 0 China Mexico Nigeria U.S. Sudan India Ethiopia Argentina Other MY 2012/13 MY 2013/14 MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17
Grain Sorghum Importers Million Metric Tons 10 8 6 4 2 0 10.2 5.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 China Mexico Japan E.U. Chile Sudan S. Africa Pakistan Other MY 2012/13 MY 2013/14
2017 Grain Sorghum Market Outlook Kansas Grain Sorghum School Wichita, Kansas February 1, 2017 DANIEL O BRIEN EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST Current Grain Market Situation for U.S. & Kansas Farmers & Agribusinesses 1) Large grain supplies are limiting grain prices 2) Wheat $ s near Marketing Loan (Feedgrain $ s > Loan) 3) Grain farmers are focusing on marketing 2016 Crops 4) U.S. & World Crop production plans for 2017?? More soybeans are likely in 2017 in South America & U.S. Lower U.S. & World wheat acres with some World crop risk emerging 2017 U.S. Feedgrain acres to be same or lower? in Brazil & Argentina
Kansas Grain Sorghum Yields Non-irrigated Since 2001 Kansas Farm Mgmt. Assoc. Enterprise Records Yield: Bu/Acre 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 63 50 45 106 105 93 88 93 73 59 110 98 82 68 39 52 105 66 79 91 109 93 93 83 Kansas Yields North Central KS Yields Kansas Grain Sorghum Yields & Prices Non-irrigated Since 2001 Kansas Farm Mgmt. Assoc. Enterprise Records Yield: Bu/Acre 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 $1.81 63 $2.36 $2.30 50 45 $1.69 $1.68 93 73 $3.29 59 $3.89 88 $3.33 $3.14 93 98 $4.74 82 $5.84 68 $6.49 39 $4.19 $3.97 66 79 $3.13 $2.95 93 83 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 ($2.00) ($4.00) ($6.00) $Price /bushel Kansas Yields North Central KS Yields All Kansas $/bu North Central KS $/bu
Grain Sorghum Sales & Costs All Kansas Non-irrigated Since 2001 Kansas Farm Mgmt. Assoc. Enterprise Records $ per Acre $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $271 $162 $335 $342 $255 $245 $233 $203 $202 $178 $50 $0 Variable (Direct) Costs Crop Sales Grain Sorghum Revenue, Costs & Returns All Kansas Non-irrigated Since 2001 Kansas Farm Mgmt. Assoc. Enterprise Records $ per Acre $400 $350 $300 $250 $309 $394 $332 $291 $269 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 ($50) Variable (Direct) Costs Net of All Costs but Labor-Mgmt Crop Sales All Income
NC Kansas Sorghum Revenue, Costs & Returns Non-irrigated Since 2001 KFMA Enterprise Records $ per Acre $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $304 $161 $318 $192 $295 $274 $236 $227 $248 $100 $50 $0 Varable - Direct Costs Crop Sales NC Kansas Sorghum Revenue, Costs & Returns Non-irrigated Since 2001 KFMA Enterprise Records $ per Acre $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 ($50) $317 $375 $393 $376 $291 Varable - Direct Costs Net of All Costs but Labor-Mgmt Crop Sales All Income
Grain Sorghum Markets
CME Corn Futures Monthly Chart: Nov. 2007 December 2017 + 2/1/2017 MAR 2017 $3.67 ¼ 2/1/2017 $3.67 $2.90 $3.18 $3.01
Sorghum Cash & Futures $ s Concordia, KS Regional Elevators February 1, 2017? $Price / bu $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0.03 625 /mo $3.68 $3.75 $3.82 $3.89 $3.95 $3.15 $2.83 $3.00 $2.68 $1.85 $1.85 $1.85 $0 Futures Low Cash/FC$ High Cash/FC$ Marketing Loan
Kansas Sorghum Seasonal Cash $ Index Monthly Prices: 1999/2000 2015/16 + Forecast MY 2016/17
U.S. Sorghum Acreage: 2000-2017 EST U.S. Sorghum Yields: 1990-2017 USDA 2017 USDA Forecast = 67.1
U.S. Sorghum Production & Supplies NY 2000/01 to Next Crop MY 2017/18 U.S. Sorghum Use & Ending Stocks MY 2004/05 to Next Crop MY 2017/18
U.S. Ethanol Production & Corn Use U.S. Feedgrain %S/U vs U.S. Sorghum Price
U.S. Sorghum $ vs U.S. Feedgrain % S/U MY 1973/74 through Current MY 2016/17 World Coarse Grain Supply, Use & Stocks
World Sorghum Supply, Use & Stocks World Coarse Grain Producers Million Metric Tons 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 403 227 152 89 41 44 38 28 32 28 26 246 MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17
Coarse Grain Exporters Million Metric Tons 70 35 0 63 * Note Weaker Currencies! * 28 23 28 9 9 8 4 18 MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17 Coarse Grain Importers 50 Million Metric Tons 40 30 20 10 35 13 17 10 14 14 15 14 41 0 No. Africa - Mdl. East China Japan South Korea Southeast Asia EU-28 Mexico Saudi Arabia Other MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17
U.S. Sorghum $ vs World Coarse Grain % S/U MY 1973/74 through New Crop MY 2016/17 U.S. Dollar Index (Trade Weighted) 1973 December 2016
U.S. Dollar Index vs World Grain $ s 1980 Dec. 2016 U.S. Dollar Index 150 125 100 75 50 25 US Dollar Index (Trade Weighted) Corn Wheat Soybeans $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 World Grain Prices (USD$ per bu) 0 $0 China Exchange Rates - Monthly China The Dominant Global Soybean Importer Chinese Yuan$ Weaker vs USD$ for 2006 2013, but Stronger Since 2014
China Corn & Soybean Supply-Demand Ests. Source: www.dimsums.blogspot.com
China vs U.S. Corn Net Return Estimates Source: www.dimsums.blogspot.com China Grain Output: Years 2000-2016 Source: www.dimsums.blogspot.com
China Grain Output vs Planted Area: 1950-2016 Source: www.dimsums.blogspot.com China Corn Temporary Reserve Price Source: www.dimsums.blogspot.com
Brazil & Argentina Exchange Rates - Monthly Major Soybean & Corn Exporters Brazil Real Brazil Real Weaker vs USD$ Since mid-2015 Argentina Peso Argentina Peso$ Weaker Since 2003
Canada & Mexico Exchange Rates - Monthly U.S. NAFTA Partners (Feedgrain & Wheat Trade Effects) Canada Dollar More NAFTA Currencies vs U.S. Dollar since 2013 i.e., weaker Mexico Peso
Euro & Australia Currency per U.S. Dollar EU: Wheat Exports/Soybean Imports Australia: Wheat/Sorghum Exports Europe EURO Australia Dollar USD$ weaker vs Euro$ & AUS$ for 2008-2013, but sideways - stronger since early 2015
Questions? Daniel O Brien Kansas State University www.agmanager.info KSUGrains on Twitter www.ksugrains.wordpress.com Daniel O Brien on Facebook