November 5, 2015
North Carolina Division of Air Quality Update 2015 Air Quality Forum Mecklenburg County Air Quality Land Use & Environmental Services Agency November 5, 2014 Randy Strait North Carolina Division of Air Quality Supervisor, Attainment Planning Branch Planning Section 2
Topics Covered Update on Compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Emissions Trends State Implementation Plan (SIP) Update Charlotte Area Redesignation for 2008 Ozone NAAQS Relaxation of Fuel Volatility Standard for Gaston and Mecklenburg Counties CO Limited Maintenance Plans 2012 Annual PM2.5 NAAQS Infrastructure SIP Interstate Transport for 2008 Ozone NAAQS Mobile Sources I/M Program Update Near Road NO2 Monitors 2010 SO2 NAAQS Implementation NC s CAA Section 111(d) Plan Response to Startup, Shutdown, Malfunction (SSM) SIP Call Regional Haze Update 2014 National Emissions Inventory Education & Outreach 3
Update on Compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) 4
Air Quality in NC Continues to Improve! Standards and goals set a decade ago have been met! 1997 Ozone standard 1997 Fine particle standard 2006 Lead standard 2010 Nitrogen dioxide standard 2010 Sulfur dioxide (SO2) standard 2012 Fine particle (PM2.5) standard 2008 Ozone standard Charlotte area now attaining 2015 Ozone standard all counties attaining based on 2013-2015 monitoring data (unofficial) 5
Statewide Ozone Ambient Air Concentrations 6
Days Statewide Ozone Exceedances 120 111 100 101 80 60 80 82 74 68 61 66 46 40 20 0 35 36 27 29 27 24 26 26 16 16 11 10 5 6 2 4 4 1 3 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Orange and Above Days Red and Above Days 7
Ozone Design Values (2013-2015) (8-Hour Average, 4 th Highest Maximum) 8
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Potential Design Value (ppb) if 2016 Values are Identical to 2015 10
Statewide PM2.5 Ambient Air Concentrations 11
PM2.5 Annual Design Values (2012-2014) All monitors meet the 2012 Annual Standard (12 μg/m 3 ) 12
PM2.5 Daily Design Values (2012-2014) All monitors meet the 2006 24-Hour Standard (35 μg/m 3 ) 13
Statewide PM10 Ambient Air Concentrations 14
Statewide NO2 Ambient Air Concentrations Two monitors (Mecklenburg & Forsyth Counties) 15
Statewide SO2 Ambient Air Concentrations Five monitors (Beaufort, Forsyth, Mecklenburg, New Hanover, Wake Counties) 16
Statewide CO Ambient Air Concentrations Three monitors (Wake, Mecklenburg and Forsyth Counties) 17
Statewide Lead Ambient Air Concentrations Two monitors (Wake and Mecklenburg Counties) 18
Regional Haze Great Smokey Mountains National Park Purchase Knob webcam on clearest day in June See: http://www.nature.nps.gov/air/webcams/parks/grsmpkcam/grsmpk_arc.cfm 19
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Extinction (Mn -1 ) Extinction (Mn -1 ) Visibility Extinction Values Great Smokey Mountains National Park 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 20% Worst Days Sea Salt CM Soil EC POM Amm. NO3 Amm. SO4 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Rayleigh 0 20% Best Days Sea Salt CM Soil EC POM Amm. NO3 Amm. SO4 Rayleigh 20
Statewide Emissions Trends 21
Trends in Annual Statewide Emissions Includes emissions from power plants, non-electric generating units (EGU), mobile sources, and area sources. 22
Statewide Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) Emissions Changes (2002-2012) 38% Reduction 2002 Total NOx = 594,663 tons 2012 Total NOx = 366,141 tons EGU 27% Other point 7% Area 6% Nonroad 19% EGUs 13% Other Point 10% Area 4% Nonroad 13% Onroad Vehicles 41% Onroad Vehicles 60% 23
Statewide PM2.5 Emissions Changes (2002-2012) 61% Reduction 2002 PM 2.5 Emissions = 97,731 tons 2012 Total PM2.5 = 38,486 tons EGU 17% Other point 10% EGUs 13% Other Point 16% Area 42% Onroad 5% NonRoad 10% Area 58% Onroad Vehicles 17% Nonroad Vehicles 12% 24
Clean Smoke Stacks Act (CSA) Related Emission Reductions Net environmental compliance cost = $2.89 billion 25
Percent Reduction Relative to 2002 % Reduction in Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions Relative to 2002 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 90% 75% 36% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SO2 NOx CO2 26
State Implementation Plan (SIP) Update 27
Charlotte Area Redesignation for 2008 8-Hour Ozone Standard EPA Final Approvals (July 28, 2015): Redesignation request and maintenance plan (80 FR 44873): Effective August 27, 2015 Included approval of motor vehicle emissions budgets for conformity purposes Non-interference demonstration for removing federal low-reid vapor pressure (RVP) requirement for the Gaston and Mecklenburg Counties (80 FR 44868): Effective July 28, 2015 28
Federal Low-RVP Requirement for Gaston and Mecklenburg Counties EPA Actions (August 17, 2015): Proposal to revise federal RVP requirement from 7.8 to 9.0 pounds per square inch (psi) from June 1 Sept. 15 (80 FR 49139) Published Direct Final Rule to revise 40 CFR 80.27(a)(2) (40 FR 49164) Rule effective Oct. 16, 2015 (no adverse comments received) Benefits: Estimate low-rvp gasoline cost about 7 cents more per gallon on average than gasoline with less stringent vapor requirements (DAQ analysis in 2014) From June 1 to Sept. 15, 2014, would have saved Charlotte motorists about $8.4 million during this period 29
Charlotte Maintenance Areas for Ozone Standards 30
Charlotte 2008 Ozone Maintenance Area Total Summer Day NOx Emissions Total NOx Emissions Reduction = 48% 2014 NOx Emissions (Total: 130.2 tpd) 2026 NOx Emissions (Total: 67.5 tpd) 20% 25% Point Area 21% 39% Point Area 9% On-road Nonroad 23% On-road Nonroad 46% 17% 31
On-road NOx Emissions, tons/day Charlotte 2008 Ozone Maintenance Area Onroad Summer Day NOx Emissions 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 Cabarrus County Iredell County Lincoln County Rowan County Union County Gaston County Mecklenburg County Total Emissions 10.00 0.00 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Year 32
Carbon Monoxide (CO) NAAQS Limited CO Maintenance Plans End this Fall for 3 Areas Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham Maintenance Areas : End date = September 18, 2015 Winston-Salem Maintenance Area: End date = November 7, 2015 Transportation and general conformity no longer required for CO 33
2012 Annual PM2.5 NAAQS Infrastructure State Implementation Plan (SIP) Purpose: Certify that state has the authority and programs needed to implement, maintain and enforce the standard States must address 14 elements under CAA Sections 110(a)(1) and 110(a)(2) (per EPA guidance) Schedule: Pre-hearing draft is out for public comment now: Comments due by Nov. 30, 2015 Final submittal to EPA: By Dec. 14, 2015 34
Interstate Transport for 2008 Ozone NAAQS Purpose: Address Good Neighbor provision under CAA Section 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) to demonstrate that NC is not interfering with attainment/maintenance of a neighboring state's ozone problem Status of NC s Good Neighbor (GN) Infrastructure SIP (isip): Nov. 2, 2012: NC submitted GN isip that relied on NOx emission reductions from NC Clean Smoke Stacks Act and EPA s Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)/Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR). Aug. 21, 2012: D.C. Circuit vacated CSAPR and required EPA to define significant contributions for GN SIPs. EPA began emissions and air quality modeling to identify contributing states. Apr. 29, 2014: U.S. Supreme Court reversed the D.C. Circuit decision and held that states are required to meet GN provision despite the lack of EPA modeling guidance. Aug. 2014: EPA informed NC its intent to disapprove isip because it lacked a modeling demonstration; NC withdrew the GN isip on Sept. 3, 2014. June 30, 2015: Per Court Order, EPA issued failure to submit complete GN isip for 24 states including NC October 30, 2015: DAQ released pre-hearing draft GN isip for public comment; comments due by Nov. 30, 2015 35
Interstate Transport for 2008 Ozone NAAQS EPA Transport Modeling Update Draft modeling for 2018 (Jan. 2015) NC does not have significant contributions to another state s ozone pollution Revised draft modeling for 2017 (July 2015): Notice of Data Availability (NODA) issued on July 23 requesting comments by Oct. 23 Revised draft modeling shows NC contributes to one maintenance monitor in Baltimore County, Maryland (i.e., Essex ozone monitor) DAQ reviewed revised modeling and submitted comments to EPA on Oct. 23 EPA Next Steps Proposed rulemaking for federal (backstop) plan expected later this fall (will not incorporate DAQ comments submitted on revised 2017 modeling) Final rulemaking expected next yea (will incorporate DAQ comments submitted on revised 2017 modeling) 36
Interstate Transport for 2008 Ozone NAAQS DAQ extensively reviewed EPA s revised draft modeling for 2017 Details of DAQ s review and findings are documented in pre-hearing draft isip posted on DAQ s website DAQ Conclusions: Modeling reveals substantial evidence that the EPA s 2017 modeling analysis linking North Carolina to downwind contributions to ozone concentrations at the Essex ozone monitor is associated with inaccurate emissions inventories and deficiencies in the performance of the air quality modeling rather than a real contribution. North Carolina does not contribute significantly to downwind air quality problems in another state, and has met its Good Neighbor Provision under the Clean Air Act with respect to the 2008 ozone NAAQS 37
Interstate Transport for NO2 and SO2 NAAQS Good Neighbor isips to be completed this fall or early next year 2010 1-Hour NO2 NAAQS 2010 1-Hour SO2 NAAQS 38
Mobile Sources Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) Program Update 3-Year Exemption SIP Approval General Assembly Session Law 2012 199: Exempts from I/M Program: Three newest model-year vehicles with less than 70,000 miles on their odometers; and Plug-in vehicles EPA Final Approval (February 5, 2015; 80 FR 6455) EPA approval certified by NC DEQ and DMV Rule effective April 1, 2015 39
Mobile Sources I/M Program Update 2015 I/M Program Study HB74 Examine whether all counties with an emissions testing and maintenance program are needed to meet and maintain the current and proposed federal ozone standards Submitted to Environmental Review Commission April 1 st (http://www.ncair.org/news/leg/final_report_hb_74_im_study.pdf) Recommendations: Option A - using 65 parts per billion (ppb) as the potential ozone standard, remove 27 counties from vehicle emissions inspection requirements Option B - using 70 ppb as the potential ozone standard, remove 31 counties from vehicle emissions inspections requirements Legislative Activity: HB 169 removes 29 counties from program - 27 Option A counties + 2 Option B counties; but was not adopted by Senate Expect legislature to address in 2016 session DAQ will revise report in light of EPA s new ozone standard 40
Charlotte and Raleigh Early values Near Road NO2 Monitors Average ~ 12 ppb in 2015 for both sites, 10 ppb in Raleigh, 11 ppb in Charlotte in 2014 (standard is 53 ppb annual mean) 98 th Percentile = 36 ppb for Raleigh, 39 ppb for Charlotte (standard is 98% <100 ppb over 3 years) Peaks around 7am and 6pm (rush hour) In its "Action Initiation List" (AIL) of planned rulemakings launched in July -- EPA says it will within a year propose to revise its NO2 monitoring regulations to remove the requirement that metropolitan areas with a population between 500,000 and one million establish near-road monitoring by Jan. 1, 2017. 41
2010 1-Hour SO2 NAAQS Implementation Based on 3 years of monitoring data, EPA designated areas in August 2013, deferred all other designations All monitors in NC continue to show compliance with the 1-hour standard Court order directs EPA to complete designations for all remaining areas in up to 3 additional rounds: Round 1 (by July 2, 2016): One facility met emissions (>2,600 tons SO2) and average emission rate (at least 0.45 lbs SO2/mmBtu) thresholds DAQ has submitted boundary recommendations to EPA and, based on modeling, concluded facility will not cause exceedance of standard and recommended an attainment designation 42
2010 1-Hour SO2 NAAQS Implementation Round 2 (by December 31, 2017) Following EPA Data Requirements Rule (effective date is Sept. 21, 2015): Directs agencies to provide data to characterize current air quality in areas with large sources (>2,000 tons SO2) DAQ is working with facilities to determine best approach for compliance (monitoring vs. modeling) 6 facilities exceed the emissions threshold 2 facilities below threshold but 3rd-party modeling shows potential for exceeding standard; DAQ is reviewing EPA to designate areas that use modeling approach Round 3 (by December 31, 2020) EPA to designate all remaining areas that use monitoring approach EPA also recommends that areas with multiple sources in same area that have total emissions >2,000 tons be considered for air quality characterization (DAQ is reviewing) 43
NC s 111(d) Plan Develop 111(d) State Plan consistent with Clean Air Act requirements Information requested from subject facilities: Best System of Emissions Reductions Candidate measures that will directly reduce CO2 emissions at the facility (such as heat rate improvement measures) Approach: Develop Primary Plan Consists of a proposed rule for improving efficiencies at the state s electric generating units (EGUs). Based on the only component of the federal power plan rule that the NCDEQ believes is legal. Allowing this proposed rule to go to hearing will ensure that the state can meet the federal power plan s September 2016 deadline. Develop Backup Plan To be completed at the same time as other states that request a two-year extension for creating their compliance plan DEQ joined 23 states lawsuit against EPA, on grounds that the federal power plan rule is illegal and could cost billions of dollars to plan for and implement before it is ultimately overturned by the court 44
9/9/15 11/4/15 11/5/15 11/16/15 Dec. 2015/Jan. 2016 1/15/16 2/2016 By 2/22/16 3/17/16 4/1/16 NC s 111(d) Plan Environmental Management Commission (EMC) briefing Draft rules 111(d) Plan to AQC & 30-day waiver request Request to EMC to proceed to public hearing & 30-day waiver request Public comment period begins Public hearings End of comment period Hearing Officer s report to EMC for consideration File with Rules Review Commission (RRC) RRC action Effective date (if < 10 objections) ~mid-may through June - potential Legislative review 9/6/16 Deadline to submit plan to EPA 45
Response to Startup, Shutdown, Malfunction (SSM) SIP Call SIP is due November 22, 2016 NCDEQ joined 16 other states in filing a judicial petition for review of final SIP call decision Parallel track develop a response to SIP call; looking at standards that apply during SSM 46
Regional Haze EPA Plans: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) early 2016 Extend due date for 10-Year SIP update from 2018 to 2021 Progress report schedule Progress reports as SIP revisions Reasonably Attributable Visibility Impairment (RAVI) provisions Revised Guidance Progress Tracking Metrics - focus on being able to track progress resulting from control of domestic anthropogenic emissions 47
2014 National Emissions Inventory Triennial update to EPA s base year inventory for all sectors Sectors: Stationary Point Title V Sources report 2014 emissions to DAQ by June 30, 2015 Synthetic Minors report emissions 90 days after permit renewal date Area, Onroad and Nonroad estimates prepared by DAQ and EPA Pollutants Criteria Air (NOx, VOC, CO, PM2.5/10, SO2, lead) Hazardous air pollutants Final state data submittal to EPA Jan. 1, 2016 Public Release Version 1 July 22, 2016 Version 2 July 22, 2017 48
Education & Outreach 49
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Education Programs High School (9-12) Air pollutants and their sources Predicting air pollution Air pollution problems & solutions (2016) Elementary School (K- 5) Recently updated Includes STEM curricula Geared towards interactive learning FREE NC Specific Activities, Demos & Videos Teachers & Students In Classroom or Online Teacher Workshops Middle School (6-8) Health effects of burning trash Includes information from Fire Departments Recycling activities 51
2015 Best Practice Award Promoting Energy Efficiency at Commercial and Industrial Facilities in NC 52
Thank you! Questions? 53