T h u r s d a y, S e p t e m b e r 8, 2 0 1 6 C S G W E S T A N N U A L M E E T I N G C O E U R D A L E N E, I D FAST and Furious Edition: PERSPECTIVES ON THE FAST ACT Matthew Hardy, Ph.D. Program Director for Planning and Performance Management American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials 1
TALKING POINTS What is AASHTO Federal Legislation o FAST Act o MAP-21 Topics to Discuss o Implementation Issues o USDOT Rulemakings o Trends to Consider o Big Three for Transportation Professionals New Toy (aka FAST Act) Stalwart (aka MAP-21) 2
WHAT IS AASHTO? A nonprofit association founded in 1914 Members include: o Highway and transportation departments of the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico o 46 Associate Members from Federal, State, and Local agencies and other countries Covers all five transportation modes: Air, Highways, Rail, Transit, and Water 3
FAST ACT OVERVIEW 4
FAST ACT Funding Certainty for Five Years Contract Authority Provided for highway, highway safety, and transit programs between FY 2016 and 2020. $305 billion in total funding; $281 billion guaranteed from the Highway Trust Fund. Modest increase in Federal funding levels, slightly higher than rate of inflation. About 93 percent of highway dollars are apportioned to States. 5
$70 COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED ANNUAL HIGHWAY AND TRANSIT OBLIGATIONS In billions of dollars $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1. FAST Act 2. MAP-21 Current Services (Inflation-adjusted Baseline) 3. Cliff Scenario (Supportable Oblim w/ No Net New Revenue) 6
FAST ACT A Multimodal Program Platform Proportionate funding increases for both highway and transit programs. Formula-based National Freight Program to support highway freight movement. Continuation of bicycle and pedestrian funding program. General Fund authorization of passenger rail funding and programs, including Amtrak. 7
FAST ACT FAST Act s Policy Priorities Streamlined project delivery through an improved review and permitting process that can lower costs and bring benefits to users sooner. Refinement of freight policy and network to match dedicated Federal freight funding. New technologies such as connected and automated vehicles. Further innovations in project financing and procurement. Demonstration of user-fee based alternative revenue mechanisms to sustain the Highway Trust Fund over the long term. Continuation of performance-based program implementation as enacted in MAP-21. 8
IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES 9
REVENUE AND FINANCE Rescission of Contract Authority Long-term Funding o User-Based Alternative Revenue Mechanisms Demonstration Program National Surface Transportation and Innovation Finance Bureau National Significant Freight and Highway Projects Discretionary Grant Program Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act 10
FREIGHT Freight Planning Primary Highway Freight System National Multimodal Freight Network 11
PROGRAM AND PROJECT DELIVERY Coordinated and Concurrent Environmental Review and Permitting Process Planning and Environmental Linkages USDOT Project Dashboard Project Schedules Environmental Checklist Programmatic Categorical Exclusions 12
CURRENT RULEMAKINGS 13
Implementation Status Highway Safety Improvement Program PM1 - Safety Performance Measures State and Metro Planning PM2 - Pavement/Bridge Condition Measures Transportation Performance Management DOT OMB NPRM CLOSED DOT OMB FINAL Mar 14 Jun 14 Mar 14 Jun 14 Jun 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 May 15 Mar 16 Mar 16 May 16 Nov 16 Asset Management Plan PM3 - System Performance+ Measures Feb 15 May 15 Apr 16 Aug 16 Nov 16 TBD MPO Coordination Jun 16 60 days TBD 14
Comment Review and Evaluation Transportation Performance Management INPUT PROPOSAL REVIEW FINAL MAP-21 Provisions Stakeholder Input Logical Outgrowth State of Practice 15
TRENDS TO WATCH FOR PLANNING 16
3D PRINTING S IMPACT ON TRANSPORTATION
FREIGHT Worldwide Container Port Traffic TEU: 20-foot equivalent units, 2000-2014
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PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION IMPACT ON FREIGHT MOVEMENT Source: based on Panama Canal Expansion study, EDR Group for USDOT (MARAD) 20
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Percentage FEDERAL GAS TAX HEADWIND: PURCHASING POWER LOSS OF GAS TAX DUE TO INFLATION SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF PURCHASING POWER Historical CPI-U Estimated CPI-U Based on 21-year Average from 1994-2014 100 90 80 70 60 50 39% Purchasing Power Loss by 2014 40 30 52% Purchasing Power Loss by 2024 20 10 0
FEDERAL GAS TAX HEADWIND: SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF PURCHASING POWER Sample of Nominal Prices Relative to Federal Gas Tax, 1993 and 2010 ITEM UNIT/DESCRIPTION 1993 2010 PERCENT CHANGE College Tuition Average Tuition and Required Fees $ 3,517 $ 9,136 160% Gas Per Gallon $ 1.12 $ 2.73 144% Movie Ticket Average Ticket Price $ 4.14 $ 7.89 91% House Median Price $ 126,500 $ 221,800 75% Bread Per Pound $ 1.08 $ 1.76 62% Income Median Household $ 31,272 $ 49,167 57% Stamp One First-class Stamp $ 0.29 $ 0.44 52% Beef Per Pound of Ground Beef $ 1.57 $ 2.28 46% Car Average New Car $ 19,200 $ 26,850 40% Federal Gas Tax Per Gallon $ 0.184 $ 0.184 0% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Postal Service, U.S.Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Education, National Association of Theater Owners 23
On the horizon: TECHNOLOGY OUTLOOK Dedicated, high-speed routes to accommodate driverless trucks and cars? Convenience of hands-free driving and VMT? New engineering paradigms like intersections that work without stop lights? Computer code vulnerabilities versus driver error as biggest safety challenge? 25
BIG THREE FOR TRANSPORTATION PROFESSIONALS 26
1) COORDINATION Broad-based: Statewide, Metropolitan Long-range Transportation Plans Focused: Freight, Transportation Asset Management Plans (TAMPs), Modal Plans, etc. 27
MPO COORDINATION Redefines a metropolitan planning area (MPA) Requires MPOs in an MPA to jointly develop unified planning products for the entire MPA 1 MTP and TIP Jointly establish performance targets! Also apply to UZA that cross State line Require dispute resolution Coordinate on any information or analyses 28
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OHIO??? 30
2) DATA Collection Management Analysis 31
3) RELEVANCE Breadth vs. Depth of Measures Federal vs. State vs. Local Emphasis on mega o Megaregions o Megatropolis 32
QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION Matthew Hardy, Ph.D. Program Director for Planning and Performance Management American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials 202-624-3625 mhardy@aashto.org 33