World Economic Dynamics (WED) Model: Oil consumption modeling and forecasting Inforum World Conference Alexandria, USA Tatiana Fokina, Rosneft 02.09.2014
WED Content Economics modeling and forecasting Primary energy modeling and forecasting Electricity output modeling and forecasting Oil consumption modeling and forecasting Gas consumption modeling and forecasting Coal consumption modeling and forecasting 2
Presentation structure World primary energy consumption -> the role of oil Oil consumption structure Oil consumption forecasting model Another view on oil consumption forecasting Calculation results 3
Oil in the world primary energy consumption World primary energy consumption from 1980 to 2013 by fuel 16000 14000 Mtoe 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Other renewables Hydroelectricity Nuclear energy Coal Gas Oil 1980 and 2013 fuel shares of world primary energy Nuclear energy, 3% Source: IEA, BP Coal, 25% Hydroenergy, 2% Gas, 17% Other renewables, 11% Oil, 43% Hydroenergy 2% Nuclear energy, 5% Coal, 28% Other renewables, 14% Oil, 30% 7210 Mtoe 14023 Mtoe Gas, 21% 4
Structure of the world oil consumption by sectors Oil structure consumption from 1980 to 2010 by sectors 100% 90% petrochemical Oil structure consumption in transport sector from 1980 to 2010 100% 90% Other 80% 70% 60% 50% other transport 80% 70% 60% 50% Marine Aviation Rail 40% 30% 20% industry refinery industry own use 40% 30% 20% Road 10% electricity generation 10% 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: IEA 4
Modeling of oil consumption: methodology Oil consumption, 1980-2013 Passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle in use per capita Vehicle fuel consumption per km Annual vehicle run, km Step 2 Step 3 Vehicle in use Vehicle in per capita use (forecast) (forecast) Step 4 Annual vehicle fuel consumption (forecast) Step 5 Estimation of total fuel consumption Step 6 Total oil consumption (forecast) Oil consumption in motor transport Share of vehicles with alternative fuel, % Population, 1980-2045 Step 1 6
Transport. Passenger vehicle in use Passenger vehicle in use from 2005 to 2045 1600 Mln pieces forecast 1400 1200 Others Saudi Arabia 1000 Brazil 800 India China 600 Russia Japan 400 USA 200 EU 0 Structure of world passenger vehicle in use from 2005 to 2045 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% forecast Others Saudi Arabia Brazil India China Russia Japan USA EU 7
Model results: world World oil consumption from 1990 to 2045 World oil consumption from 1990 to 2045 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Mtoe forecast 1,8Х 1.14 1.12 1.1 1.08 1.06 1.04 1.02 1 0.98 0.96 0.94 forecast Oil consumption, Mtoe Increment in oil consumption, Mtoe 5-year growth rate of oil consumption 8
Model results: countries Oil consumption from 1990 to 2045 Oil consumption structure from 1990 to 2045 by countries 7000 6000 5000 Mtoe forecast Others Saudi Arabia Brazil 100% 90% 80% 70% forecast Others Saudi Arabia Brazil 4000 3000 2000 1000 India China Russia Japan USA EU 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% India China Russia Japan USA 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 EU 9
World. Relationship between oil consumption and economic growth Total oil consumption from 1980 to 2011 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.56 Oil/cap, toe/cap. 4 6 8 10 12 GDP per capita (2005 PPP), 1000 $/cap Transport oil consumption from 1980 to 2011 Road oil consumption from 1980 to 2011 0.35 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.23 Oil/cap, toe/cap 4 6 8 10 12 0.27 0.25 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.17 Oil/cap, toe/cap 4 6 8 10 12 GDP per capita (2005 PPP), 1000 $/cap GDP per capita (2005 PPP), 1000 $/cap 1
Forecasting of oil consumption: model improvements Oil consumption in transport sector per capita, 1980-2013 GDP per capita, 1980-2013 Share of transport sector consumption in total oil consumption, 2014-2045 GDP per capita forecast, 2014-2045 Step 1 preparing data Regression 1 Oil_cons/cap = f (GDP/cap, const) Regression 2 share_transport = f (time trend) Step 2 -regression of oil consumption in transport sector per capita on GDP per capita - regression of fraction transport sector oil consumption in total oil consumption on trend Regression 1 coefficients Regression 2 coefficients Oil consumption in transport per capita, 2014-2045 Share of transport consumption in total oil consumption, 2014-2045 Step 3 - calculation of oil consumption per capita - calculation of transport share in total oil consumption Oil consumption forecast, 2014-2045 Step 4 oil consumption forecast 11
South Korea. Forecasting of oil consumption Relationship between road oil consumption and GDP per capita from 1980 to 2011 Share of road oil consumption in total oil consumption from 1975 to 2011 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Historical Gompertz least squares R^2=97% 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Historical Gompertz least squares R^2=92% Y=k*a^(b^X) - Gompertz function 12
Forecasting of oil consumption. Results Forecast oil consumption from 2012 to 2035 and 2045 World 1.23 South Korea Russia Japan EU 0.94 1.01 0.78 0.80 2012-2045 2012-2035 China 1.96 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 13
Thank you for your attention! 14
Top 15 world oil consumers in 1990 and 2013 Venezuela Australia Thailand Indonesia Canada Iran South Korea Mexico Brazil Saudi Arabia Russia India Japan China EU USA 2013 1990 0 200 400 600 800 1000 16 Mtoe